The path of Hurricane Milton could shift south, sparing Tampa from the worst of the storm surge, but no matter what, part of the coast will be facing extreme conditions.
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00:00We're back into an extraordinarily low 902 millibar hurricane.
00:05That's a category 5 hurricane.
00:07To help us break down some of the details of the storm surge,
00:09we're joined now by AccuWeather hurricane expert and Senior Director of Forecast Operations, Dan DePodwin.
00:14Dan, this is a powerhouse of a storm, and I know that it is a huge, huge issue here for Florida.
00:22We're concerned about the storm surge, the wind, and the flooding rain, but that storm surge is a huge, huge concern.
00:27It is probably the most concerning part of Milton, along with the other hazards that you mentioned, Jeff.
00:33And one of the reasons that we're so concerned about the surge is because of the fact that Milton here,
00:37as you can see on satellite, is a powerful category 5 hurricane,
00:40the strongest on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale.
00:43So that means that the wind field is really going to – all that surge here is going to be –
00:49is moving towards the Florida coast as we head through the day tomorrow.
00:52A category 5 storm with those very strong winds helps to really pile up the water over the ocean here,
00:57and as it approaches the coast and the bottom shallows up there is when you really see that storm surge.
01:03So that's why we're so concerned about it here along the west coast of Florida Wednesday night.
01:08And, Dan, we are expecting this to make landfall specifically around 2 a.m.
01:12The million-dollar question – and, again, we want to be transparent with our viewers – is where does that occur?
01:18There is a conceivable way that it's not the worst-case scenario for Tampa if it comes south,
01:22but it's certainly very likely that it may indeed come in as far north as Pinellas County.
01:27So it's a tricky communication angle here trying to keep people prepared
01:31for what could be a 15- to 20-foot storm surge in Tampa Bay.
01:34Absolutely, Jeff.
01:35We want people to prepare and take the action that local officials have provided to them.
01:40We are still predicting a landfall right near the mouth of Tampa Bay.
01:43It could be – I think if it's going to be in a different direction,
01:45it's more likely to be just south of Tampa Bay, which could spare Tampa of the worst potential impacts.
01:52But that is still not something that we want to rule out at this time.
01:57It's definitely something that we are predicting and something that we are very concerned about.
02:01So, really, anywhere from just north of Tampa down through Sarasota, Bradenton, Venice,
02:06even down to Fort Myers all have to be prepared for a significant, catastrophic storm surge with Milton.
02:11And I think, overall, there's no way that an area near or south of Tampa will avoid a catastrophic storm surge.
02:18Somebody is going to face it just on the immediate south side of this.
02:21So how is our team playing this at this point here?
02:25You said there might be, again, a conversation within the hour of an update to that I-PATH.
02:30Yeah, we're poring over the latest data here that's just come in.
02:34We may be making a slight shift south of the landfall point.
02:36But, again, the key message here is not to focus on the specific landfall point,
02:40but to really understand the risks along the west coast of Florida, especially from a storm surge perspective,
02:45and then also the wind risk inland across the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday night.
02:50All right, Dan DePauw, great insight there.
02:53And there is our official forecast, a 15- to 20-foot storm surge for Tampa Bay,
02:57and especially south through western parts of Manatee County and on south into the Naples area,
03:02huge concerns also into the Charlotte Harbor.
03:04Thanks again, Dan.
03:05You're welcome, Jeff.