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00:00Victor Boot, who was convicted on arms trafficking charges by the U.S. and then freed at a 2022
00:07prisoner swap, all this according to the Wall Street Journal, which suggests he's trying
00:11to help sell arms to Yemen's Houthis.
00:15He's saying this is all fake.
00:16The article cited Boot as saying it appeared to be published to coincide with Russian President
00:21Vladimir Putin's birthday on Monday and also praising the Iran-backed Houthis for what
00:25he cast as their military achievements.
00:28Here's the words of Victor Boot.
00:33This was the moment Victor Bout returned to Russia in 2022 following his release from
00:38the United States.
00:41The man dubbed the Merchant of Death saw his 25-year prison sentence cut short after the
00:47two countries agreed a prisoner swap.
00:50A Russian's arms dealer for a U.S. basketball player.
00:54Britney Griner was able to return to her home country 10 months after she was arrested
00:58in Moscow for possessing cannabis oil.
01:03Now almost two years after his release, Victor Bout is said to be back in business.
01:09The Wall Street Journal states he reportedly brokered a $10 million deal for AK-74S assault
01:15rivals with Houthi representatives under the cover of pesticides and vehicle sales in Moscow.
01:23The Kremlin's spokesperson has responded by saying that the story published by the
01:27American newspaper seemed to be false.
01:32The man who's said to have inspired the film Lord of War was arrested in a sting operation
01:37in 2008, having sold weapons across the world to both rebels and governments in Africa,
01:43South America and the Middle East.
01:47The latest shipments could reach the Houthi rebels in Yemen this month, passing as food
01:52supplies.
01:55Since being released from prison, Victor Bout has entered politics, joining a pro-Kremlin
01:59far-right party.
02:01It's unknown whether the deal has been negotiated under the Kremlin's command.
02:08Let's bring in Samuel Rahmani from the Royal United Services Institute for the analysis
02:13on this one.
02:14Samuel, good evening to you.
02:15What's your take on what's happened here?
02:16Well, I think that it's not so surprising that Victor Bout, given his history, would
02:21want to dive in and get into a high-risk conflict zone, because most of his previous
02:25experience was in Africa.
02:26But he did obviously have some history working in the Middle East, in particular with the
02:31manager of Sharjah International Airport in the UAE and their free trade zone, the region
02:36is known to him.
02:37And also this comes at a moment in time where Russia is contemplating sending missiles to
02:42the Houthis as retaliation for the Ukrainians getting permission from NATO countries to
02:47fire long-range missiles on Russian targets.
02:50So all this, of course, has been denied by Moscow, just as they denied before invading
02:53Ukraine that they were planning to do that.
02:55So I think perhaps we take what Moscow says with a pinch of salt.
02:58What is it really saying about Russia's involvement in the conflict happening in the Middle East?
03:02Well, I mean, obviously the Russians would deny this.
03:06There are also reports that Saudi Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman actually vetoed any possible
03:11Russian arms transfers to the Houthis when Putin visited Riyadh late last year.
03:16So it's possible that the Russians are obviously treading cautiously on this because they
03:20don't want to offend Saudi Arabia, a key partner in the OPEC Plus deal, as well as a country
03:24that is still willing to trade and invest in the Russian economy.
03:28So I don't think it's really a done deal that the Russians will supply arms to the Houthis,
03:32but it's definitely something that the Russians are threatening, perhaps as a scare tactic
03:36against the West, particularly the United States, to encourage more long-range missile
03:40strikes on Russian territory.
03:41Indeed.
03:42One wonders, though, perhaps whether Russia has the kind of supplies that you might need
03:47to sell to other countries, given its engagement in Ukraine, given it needs to have that ammunition
03:52and given we've heard of shortages and obviously North Korea filling the gap, Iran filling
03:55the gap?
03:56Well, definitely.
03:57Obviously, Russia is getting Wozniak-11 missiles from North Korea.
04:01They're also in the KASPA, or props they actually received, according to reports last month,
04:08missiles from Iran.
04:10And even though their domestic supply chains have managed to reconfigure some of those
04:14Iskanders, some of those precision missiles, and they've managed to get enough chips to
04:17be able to produce them, which is something that maybe two years ago we thought would
04:20have been difficult, they still obviously have critical supply shortages.
04:23That's why I don't think that the Russians, even if they were to do this, they would send
04:27a large number of missiles, they might just send a small number to make a point and use
04:31them in attacks on Western vessels to scare the West.
04:34I think this is much more of a symbolic and demonstrative display rather than a strategic
04:40commitment to align with the Houthis.
04:41I hear what you're saying.
04:42The denial from Dmitry Peskov just seemed to be along a line of many denials that he's
04:47made as Kremlin press secretary, which, again, we take with a pinch of salt.
04:52I'm wondering, Victor, about this.
04:54This is a character who clearly has had his finger in many pies in terms of supplying
05:00arms to whoever wanted to buy them, in that sense.
05:04What does he do?
05:05Does he operate sort of independently, or is he very much an agent of the Kremlin?
05:08Well, it's really hard to say what he's doing now, because we just haven't seen enough of
05:11what his recent activities have been since the accident in prison.
05:15We do know that he's politically involved with the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia,
05:18which is nothing like its name, it's a very extreme right-wing nationalist party.
05:22And he has been, you know, engaging with other figures in Prigozhin's network.
05:25For example, him and Maxim Shugale met at the Russia-Africa Summit in St. Petersburg
05:30and discussed cooperation.
05:31So he's certainly working with people who have access to the GRU or to the Kremlin.
05:37But on this deal, given the sensitivity of it with Saudi Arabia, I think that it's unlikely
05:42he'd be pursuing this deal without some kind of Kremlin sanction.
05:45By the 90s, he was very much a freelancer, operating independently and just selling arms
05:50for profit, because Russia, in most of the countries where he operated, really did not
05:53have a strategic commitment one way or another.
05:55They weren't that concerned about what was happening in Liberia or DRC back in those days.
06:00It's kind of hard to imagine that Vladimir Putin would let somebody operate like that
06:03on a freelance basis, though.
06:04Yeah, not anymore.
06:05That's why I think, particularly with the experience of Prigozhin, and even though Prigozhin
06:10was never really a freelancer, he was always an offshoot of the GRU and the Wagner base
06:15in Mokino, and the GRU Special Forces, you know, were training together.
06:20Any autonomy in the sphere of private security or arms has been seen as something quite dangerous
06:24since the Wagner mutiny, particularly if the person is of an ultranationalist variety,
06:28like Boris.
06:30And that's why I think Bout will be much more supervised this time around if he's doing
06:32deals than he was in the 90s and 2000s.
06:35Yeah, what you're saying completely sounds good.
06:36So this really aligns Russia, as if there was any doubt, with Iran, with Iran and other
06:42groups against Israel on the ground in the Middle East there.
06:45Are we likely to see the threat that Israel faces increase significantly as a result of
06:53Viktor Bout's activities?
06:56Well, Russia wants to align itself with Iran against Israel, I think, at this point.
06:59And that's pretty clear with Israel striking Syria without really consulting with the Russians
07:03anymore, but does not necessarily want to align Russia with the Houthis against Dubai
07:10or the UAE, I guess, and Saudi Arabia.
07:13So they have to tread a very difficult line.
07:15I think certainly access to Russian missiles might help them on the margins strike Israel.
07:22I think that, again, if any missiles are shipped, it's going to be a small quantity.
07:25It's going to probably be aimed at Western ships.
07:27And the Houthis have more than enough Iranian produce to wreak some damage on Israeli ports
07:33like Gilad.
07:34Samir Romani, as always, thank you very much for bringing your analysis to our studio.
07:38We always appreciate it.
07:39Samir Romani of the Royal United Services Institute.
07:42Thanks for joining us, Sam.
07:43Thank you very much.
07:44Next, Florida.