Tesla Robotaxi Unveil: Elon Musk’s Autonomous Revolution That Will Crush TSLA Skeptics!
Join us as we dive into the world of Tesla, exploring the cutting-edge features of the 2023 Tesla Model 3 and beyond. From the revolutionary Tesla Solar Roof and Powerwall to the highly anticipated Tesla Cybertruck and Roadster, we cover it all. Learn how Elon Musk and his vision for Tesla are reshaping the future of electric vehicles, solar energy, and autonomy. We also discuss Tesla’s position in the market, including TSLA's performance on Nasdaq, the latest on Tesla shares, and insights into Tesla's energy solutions. Whether you’re curious about the cost of a Tesla, new models like the Tesla Model 2, or Musk’s ventures into artificial intelligence with OpenAI and robotics, this review offers a comprehensive look at Tesla's innovations. Stay tuned for insights on the Tesla Semi, Tesla Van, and the future of sustainable transport
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00:00Well, would you look who it is, Tony Sakanaki.
00:03Some of you might recall the boring, bone-headed questions on a Tesla earnings call, the very
00:07same guy.
00:08Now, Tony, if you don't know, historically has been rather bearish on Tesla, thinking
00:12the stock's massively overvalued and all the competition's coming.
00:15It didn't, by the way.
00:17So I'm looking forward to hearing his take on Tesla's RoboTaxi event.
00:21Right now is Bernstein Senior Research Analyst, Tony Sakanaki, good morning to you.
00:25What do you expect we're going to hear?
00:26We've been waiting for this news for a long time.
00:29I think it's exciting to many, but also for many, there's some skepticism about when it
00:34will actually arrive.
00:35Good morning, Andrew.
00:36Yes, I think the consensus is that Tesla will announce a dedicated RoboTaxi model, likely
00:45to be available at some point in the future, let's say 27 or 28.
00:50So I mean, obviously we are going to see a dedicated vehicle, specifically design, engineered,
00:57built for autonomy.
00:58Assuming that Tony threw out some predictions when this vehicle, I guess, would be on roads,
01:03which I guess that then tacitly is his own estimate of when Tesla has solved autonomy
01:07and is legally operating RoboTaxis.
01:09Let's listen again to those dates.
01:12Announce a dedicated RoboTaxi model, likely to be available at some point in the future,
01:19let's say 27 or 28.
01:21So 2027 or 2028, that appears to be Tony's estimate for when Tesla has solved autonomy,
01:26at least to the point where it would make sense for them to manufacture a dedicated
01:30vehicle.
01:31So three to four years from now, my estimates are somewhat more aggressive than that.
01:34I think Tesla's are as well, but it is worth taking a moment.
01:38Even Tony here, a Tesla bear, a skeptic, who's long been skeptical and long been bearish on
01:43the company.
01:44Although in fairness, more bearish on the stock price than the company.
01:48Even Tony now sees RoboTaxis as in autonomy happening in just a few years.
01:53A question I would have is, does Tony have any estimates for future cash flows from this
01:58business in his Tesla valuation model?
02:01Because it seems at this point, the vast majority of analysts covering Tesla stock, Tony, among
02:05them, do not have Tesla RoboTaxi revenue or profits in their valuation models at all,
02:11because it hasn't happened yet.
02:12Therefore, it's against the laws on Wall Street.
02:13You get thrown in prison for life if you actually model something before it's happened, because
02:17that would require courage.
02:19I expect that Tesla will demonstrate a application whereby a ride-hailing app, that it will provide
02:29some kind of update on where they are on full self-driving and maybe also potentially announce
02:34that it's doing some RoboTaxi trials.
02:37I expect if they did that, those would have to be with a company and driver.
02:43But nevertheless, starting trials in one or more cities in the US.
02:46I think that's generally what's expected amongst investors.
02:51There are big questions about whether Tesla will provide updates on Optimus Robot or whether
02:57it will provide an update on new models, particularly, you know, the revamped models expected.
03:05I've heard this a few times.
03:06It leaves me scratching my head.
03:07I mean, there's an extremely low, but non-zero probability there'd be an update on Optimus.
03:11And the only reason that would happen is if it had something to do with autonomy, e.g.
03:17Let's just say, random example, Tesla wanted to demonstrate how you might deliver an item
03:20to somebody.
03:21You know, Tesla RoboTaxi, you put an Optimus in the vehicle as well.
03:24So after the vehicle's got to its destination, the Optimus Robot can walk out and deliver
03:29a parcel.
03:30I'm giving this an extremely low probability, but that's the only kind of context where
03:33it would make any sense to discuss the Optimus Humanoid Robot in any detail, let alone show
03:37it.
03:38As for mention of new vehicle models, I'm giving this a 0.00000000420690% chance.
03:47Why on earth would Tesla tell investors, who are predominantly investors, at an event that's
03:51going to get a lot of media coverage, and it will eventually reach general consumers,
03:55why would they tell them about a product we already know about in any more detail, take
03:59the shine off the RoboTaxi, and inevitably shoot a fucking cannonball through their current
04:04order flow?
04:05Because many customers today who are opting to buy a Model 3, or why?
04:09Because it's exceptional value, learn about a more affordable version of essentially the
04:13same vehicle, that they can just wait a little while and buy instead.
04:17Meaning many people go, well fuck it, I will just wait.
04:19Tesla would be insane to do this.
04:21It boggles the mind that anyone expects this might actually take place.
04:24Of course I could be wrong, I just don't understand why the fuck Tesla would detail new vehicles
04:28that are more affordable.
04:29We already know about this, they've told us on earnings call.
04:31The interim range of vehicles, using some of the learnings from the modular manufacturing
04:34system for the next gen vehicle, will be implemented, get them to roughly 3 million units per year
04:38without needing to build new factories or new production lines in any meaningful scale.
04:41Am I the only one who thinks this would be absolutely fucking mad?
05:11Now this is nice to hear, the idea that investors would be thinking about this probabilistically,
05:20which they should by the way, the question is, is Tony?
05:23Because remember, it's against the law, breaking the rules, he'll go to prison for a very long
05:27time if he takes the huge risk of modelling out possible implications of this business
05:32before it's already operational.
05:34And so I think it's widely anticipated, but as you noted at the outset, there are lots
05:40of questions.
05:41There are technical questions about whether Tesla can get to the reliability level with
05:46a more limited sensor suite, they only have cameras.
05:50Other competing autonomous vehicles have LiDAR and radar, so there's a technical question.
05:55I think there's a regulatory question, there's a timing question, and you know, how competitive
06:00is this space going to be, are prices going to be driven down, and how much value will
06:04there be to be captured?
06:06So regarding the technology, as I've said before, there's a billion-ish examples of
06:11a dual-camera neural net system driving vehicles fairly safely, they're called humans, so we
06:15can throw that idea in the bin, obviously it's technically possible.
06:18In terms of regulatory approval, this is also a non-issue, Tesla is collecting mountains
06:22of data.
06:23At some point, they'll have enough data to prove, beyond a shadow of doubt, that their
06:28vehicles in XYZ region are XYZ times safer than human drivers.
06:32At that point, regulators have no choice, it's not a matter of personal opinion, it's
06:36a matter of the fucking data.
06:37So again, put that in the bin, inevitable.
06:39In terms of cost, let's think about this, Waymo spending six-plus figures, over $100,000
06:46on vehicles, plus expensive sensors, needing to pre-map everywhere in high-definition first.
06:52Not a solution that scales, which is the biggest issue, but importantly, to Tony's point regarding
06:58cost, Tesla's about to unveil a vehicle that, when scaled, is probably going to cost them
07:02about $15,000, $18,000, at worst, maybe $20,000 to produce, let's say a fifth the cost, and
07:08this is being conserved, it's probably a sixth, seventh of the cost, of a competing
07:12so-called robotaxi.
07:14You do not need to be a genius like Tony here to realise that, if a company can put an equivalent
07:19product or a superior product on roads, for a fifth the cost, then that product will repay
07:23its cost significantly faster, meaning you have a huge cost advantage, meaning you can
07:28actually charge a lot less per mile to customers, and still print crazy amounts of money.
07:33Tesla has a huge cost advantage here as well, it's important to understand.
07:36And as I touched on, their ability to scale massively, they've built a generalised solution
07:41for autonomy, in essence, pick up a Tesla, drop it anywhere on earth, even if it's never
07:45been there before, and it'll know how to drive, because it knows how to drive.
07:48I'm going to say that again, because it knows how to drive.
07:52Companies like Waymo don't have products that know how to drive, they have products that
07:56know how to move throughout a pre-mapped circuit, an impressive party trick, but not something
08:03that will widely scale.
08:04At this point, I feel like I'm the only person, I'm not, obviously, many of you guys and girls
08:09agree, but I'm one of the few people covering Tesla, talking about Tesla, thinking about
08:12Tesla, and looking at their autonomy, who is adamant, there's no fucking hope in hell,
08:17companies like Waymo, Cruise, rest in peace, are going to have a chance of competing with
08:21Tesla on cost, or scaling, even close to as fast as Tesla, or having vehicles that are
08:25as capable in terms of the safety profile, long term, and they just don't have viable
08:30business models.
08:31But there are very few analysts, if any, saying the same things, they all seem to be under
08:36the impression that it's a huge pie, and everyone's going to take an equally large slice, even
08:40though some of them have hardware, that's four, five, six times the cost, there's only
08:45one company that has a generalized solution that'll scale rapidly, I just, I just don't
08:48understand.
08:49And imagine this was like 20 years ago, and you had a bunch of analysts talking about
08:53Netflix, who are about to unveil their online streaming day, but then going on to explain
08:58that it wasn't really clear that they'd have an advantage over traditional video rental
09:02stores where customers have to waste time, physically go to the store, rent a video,
09:07drive back home, watch it, rewind it, bring it back, and don't be late, because you'll
09:11pay a massive fee.
09:12I think folks are getting a little bit confused, in that analogy, they'd be like, well, it's
09:16just movies, right, movie rental, some online, in person, what's the difference, it's the
09:19same stuff, it's unclear to me, I don't, versus looking at the robo taxis, autonomy, and thinking,
09:24oh, well, it's the same stuff, right, it's a vehicle that drives people, I'm going to
09:28ignore the LIDAR, the pre-mapping being necessary, kind of lost for words here.
09:33Is there a single analyst out there that's under the impression that Tesla has an unassailable
09:37lead here, that they're going to absolutely dominate autonomy?
09:39Is there one?
09:40And you've got to feel for people like Tony, if they, you know, nudge or feel they're extremely
09:44intelligent Wall Street colleagues, working at other firms, hey, what do you think about
09:48Waymo and Tesla and robo taxis, they all think the same shit, say the same shit, then why
09:51would they have any reason to doubt?
09:53It's just so obvious to me that they've got it wrong.
09:56Those are ascribing different probabilities and timing of these scenarios.
10:00What probabilities are you ascribing to those things, and how are you doing the valuation
10:03there?
10:04Well, here's an excellent question from Andrew.
10:07Here's how I think about it, Andrew, is I think it will be difficult for Tesla to leapfrog
10:12existing players, Uber, Waymo, and others are doing level four robo taxi service today
10:18in multiple cities, even if Tesla is able to leapfrog.
10:23So here's a controversial and accurate hot take, whenever you hear anyone discussing
10:27autonomy and they mentioned level one, level two, level three, right, any of that shit,
10:31they're admitting that they have outsourced their thinking to some dimwits to do the thinking
10:35for them.
10:36Instead of actually observing the capabilities of the software itself in the real world,
10:41actually operating the ground source, the truth, they're like an NPC who watches the
10:45fake news to learn what they should believe or what they should be scared of, or how long
10:50they should stay at home, hiding in a corner, fearing for their life.
10:54Wait, what?
10:55This is the box ticking mindset in a nutshell.
10:57And let me explain.
10:58There'll come a point where Tesla knocks on a regulator's door and says, hey, Dick, here's
11:03a bunch of data.
11:04Our software is way safer than humans, approve, thanks.
11:06And they say, oh, good point, it's definitely safer than human, you have approval.
11:10Suddenly all the box tickers now will have a massive shift in the way that they see and
11:14perceive Tesla or an autonomy, because suddenly there's a new categorization on the exact
11:19same fucking software that existed before the door knocking took place.
11:23Put simply, watch what the software is doing, know how it's doing what it's doing, and note
11:29the rate of improvement.
11:31That's it.
11:32You don't need to rely on somebody else telling you what category, what level this autonomy
11:36is.
11:37It's irrelevant.
11:38And after that short tirade, the summary of which is think for yourself, don't outsource
11:42your thinking.
11:43I'm looking forward to determining whether or not Tony, who was just asked the question,
11:48why are you modeling?
11:49How are you modeling this stuff out?
11:50Actually has a pair of nuts and is willing to take the risk of probabilistically waiting
11:55this opportunity, or if he's given himself an excuse because he's just said that it's
12:00not clear to him if Tesla will be able to leapfrog companies like Waymo.
12:04I think it'll be a limited, you know, a limited year advantage.
12:09So let's say in a year Tesla has level five robo taxis, they can go anywhere.
12:14They have a ride hailing service.
12:16My guess is competitors are going to catch up reasonably quickly.
12:20So this notion of having sustained outside profits, even if Tesla were to leapfrog, given
12:26the technical hurdles and the regulatory hurdles, I think are difficult.
12:30And the valuation of Uber is $150 billion.
12:33I feel so bad for this guy, like he's just such a poindexter, he just doesn't get it.
12:37Why does the valuation of Uber have anything at all to do with this?
12:41Oh, wait, I know, because Uber has a service that uses vehicles with people driving them.
12:46To move people from point A to point B. Therefore, it will be a comparable valuation to another
12:50company that has vehicles moving people from point A to point B, except spoiler alert,
12:54it doesn't because in autonomy, the most expensive thing, the driver, who needs to
12:59be paid, doesn't exist.
13:01The unit economics are just so different.
13:02The cost per mile is so different, it's, oh God, I really think Tony's trying his best
13:06and I just think he just doesn't fucking get it.
13:08The poor guy.
13:09Remember the earlier analogy, Netflix online streaming versus say traditional video rental
13:14store like Blockbuster.
13:15Imagine thinking it made sense to compare the valuations of the two companies, which
13:18have completely different cost structures.
13:20The valuation of Uber, you know, probably in the US is half of that, $75 billion.
13:26Tesla stock today embeds, we think $600 billion beyond the core auto business.
13:33Much of that ascribed to RoboTaxi.
13:35So we struggle with that, that differential, given the probabilities that I have.
13:39Let me ask you this.
13:40Wait a second.
13:42Andrew asked how Tony was modeling out Tesla's RoboTaxi business, right?
13:46I didn't hallucinate, did I?
13:48Like if and how are you modeling this out?
13:51Because Tony just finished saying that many investors are modeling this out in terms of
13:56probabilities and then discounting it back, right?
13:59Then Andrew asks, well, basically, are you doing this?
14:01How are you modeling this out?
14:03To which Tony responds, we struggled to see how Tesla would leapfrog Waymo.
14:07Cool story, bro, but that doesn't, it doesn't answer the question.
14:10This is some Kamala Harris shit right now.
14:12How are you modeling this out?
14:14And then Tony goes on to talk about how Uber's valuation is X, Y, Z, who cares, irrelevant,
14:18and that they believe that Tesla's stock currently has embedded a huge amount of valuation
14:23for Robo...
14:24That's not the question.
14:25He didn't ask what investors, he asked you, what do you model?
14:30Do you model?
14:31How do you model this?
14:32It is okay, Tony, to just say, oh, we don't think it's going to happen, therefore we ignore
14:34it or we're scared of breaking the rules because we don't want to go to prison for life for
14:38having some testicles, therefore we're not going to model it until it happens.
14:41I hope Andrew's pushing back right now.
14:43But at this point in time, it appears to me that Tony has just tacitly admitted he's a
14:48gigantic fucking pussy when directly asked how he, e.g. Bernstein, are modeling out future
14:55cash flows from Tesla's RoboTaxi business.
14:57Instead of answering the question, he just deflected, why?
14:59Why is it so hard to just say, oh, I'm a pussy and I just, I don't model it out?
15:03Oh, actually, I kind of understand why it would be hard to admit you're a fucking pussy.
15:06Yeah, fair enough.
15:08This in terms of the competition piece of it, which is to say, you made the argument
15:11that you think that Uber and Waymo will have an advantage, maybe given LiDAR and other
15:17things over Tesla.
15:19There is an argument to be made, and maybe you'll disagree with it, which is that, you
15:23know, they have a number of the, number, they have thousands, tens of thousands of these
15:26cars on the street today that have cameras on them, they're taking in data that can't
15:31really be matched.
15:32Uh, just wanted to point out Tesla's got roughly 7 million vehicles on roads today.
15:38Seven million is a little bit more than 10 or 20,000.
15:41If you look at some of their self-driving features right now, they clearly seem to be
15:46the leader or the most advanced in terms of where that would be if you were to sort of
15:50set aside what Waymo is doing.
15:53Is there an argument you made that they will leapfrog everybody and that they in some ways
15:57already have?
15:58Well, I think the bold case is they will leapfrog.
16:00I think it's very difficult to say they already have, because we, you know, um, Waymo is doing
16:06100,000 rides a month right now with essentially a perfect safety record in multiple cities.
16:14Um, Tesla's nowhere close to that.
16:17Now, surely I'm not the only one that noticed when asked how Tony was modeling robotaxis,
16:21he didn't actually answer the question.
16:23And to his claim that he can't suggest that Tesla's ahead of companies like Waymo, I understand
16:29Tony's argument.
16:30On paper, if you're a binary thinking poindexter, you ask the question, is Waymo operating any
16:36robotaxis services anywhere on planet earth?
16:39Yes.
16:40Is Tesla?
16:41No.
16:42Therefore, Tesla cannot possibly be ahead of Waymo.
16:43But we've got to look a little bit deeper here.
16:45Instead of looking at what's going on with the services and thinking, yes, no, black
16:49and white, look at the capability of the software.
16:52We can see countless videos online of intervention-free drives lasting 5, 10, 15, 20, 50 minutes,
17:01two and a half hours, not touching the wheel once to intervene in Tesla vehicles today.
17:07Not everywhere.
17:08And interventions still occur.
17:09But the tiny pockets of the United States in which Waymo is currently operating its
17:13robotaxis service, reliant upon pre-mapping and HD, lots of safety nets and guardrails.
17:18I mean, bro, you could train a blind person to walk through a maze, right?
17:23Enough practice where you know where every obstacle is, almost like you've pre-mapped
17:27in HD because you've got a mental model in your head.
17:29And suddenly you can impress people by having somebody who has no vision whatsoever, apparently
17:34almost miraculously being able to navigate their way through a maze.
17:37This is what Waymo is doing right now.
17:39You pre-map everything in HD with LiDAR down to the millimeter or the inch, and then you
17:42bounce lasers off everything to make sure nothing's moved and everything's fine.
17:46It's basically like being on rails.
17:48And this is only happening in a few pockets.
17:50Then you look at Tesla vehicles in huge swaths of the United States doing intervention-free
17:55drives and you ask yourself, hang on a minute, would it be possible today that Tesla perhaps
17:59could in theory be operating a robotaxi service in a few small pockets, much like Waymo?
18:05The answer to that question is obviously yes, they're not yet.
18:07So in Tony's world, is Tesla operating a robotaxi service legally anywhere yet?
18:11No.
18:12Okay.
18:13Therefore, Waymo must be ahead.
18:14Let's look at the ground source truth, the actual capabilities of the software operating
18:19in the real world.
18:20Tony's thinking process appears to be, is Tesla operating any robotaxis?
18:23No.
18:24Well, I'll ignore what my eyes show me because that wouldn't be useful.
18:28Therefore, Tesla's behind Waymo.
18:30The end.
18:31Boggles the mind.
18:32Let me flip this argument on its head.
18:33If we were to take a Waymo vehicle and place it on one of the many thousands of different
18:40routes, a Tesla vehicle can take intervention-free now in the United States and have the way
18:44my vehicle attempt to drive that same path, reach the same destination.
18:48How would the Waymo vehicle fare?
18:49And the answer is it would immediately pull over and ask for daddy to come and help or
18:53alternatively just start mowing people down.
18:56Tony has to be one of the dumbest smart people I know.
18:58Can't wait to see the Wall Street reactions to Tesla's 1010 autonomy event.
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