Robotaxi Revolution: Can Tesla Deliver or Is It Just Talk?
Join us as we dive into the world of Tesla, exploring the cutting-edge features of the 2023 Tesla Model 3 and beyond. From the revolutionary Tesla Solar Roof and Powerwall to the highly anticipated Tesla Cybertruck and Roadster, we cover it all. Learn how Elon Musk and his vision for Tesla are reshaping the future of electric vehicles, solar energy, and autonomy. We also discuss Tesla’s position in the market, including TSLA's performance on Nasdaq, the latest on Tesla shares, and insights into Tesla's energy solutions. Whether you’re curious about the cost of a Tesla, new models like the Tesla Model 2, or Musk’s ventures into artificial intelligence with OpenAI and robotics, this review offers a comprehensive look at Tesla's innovations. Stay tuned for insights on the Tesla Semi, Tesla Van, and the future of sustainable transport
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00:00It's almost time folks. Tesla's autonomy event, as I record this, roughly 24 hours away by the
00:05time most of you watch this. Less than 24 hours may have already taken place and Tesla's official
00:10ex-account today posting this question. How would you use the time you spend driving if you didn't
00:16have to? Great question. Who or what would you do if you don't have to pay attention and actually
00:21drive the vehicle? Worth pondering. I just wanted to play a quick clip from the court jester of the
00:27finance media Jim Cramer sharing his recent thoughts on Tesla's autonomy event in his usual
00:32hot take fashion. We have one of the most exciting meetings ever and that's going to be Elon Musk's
00:36we robot event okay. This is for the strategy for autonomous driving. I think this meeting will show
00:41off Tesla's technological edge and will be incredibly well received and you won't think
00:45of it as a car company after this meeting. You'll think of it as a tech company and that's why I
00:48think you should buy the stock ahead okay. Ahead of this meeting. I'll tell you what he's pretty
00:54brazen with his financial advice straight up telling people buy the stock. This is of course
00:58the same guy who at Tesla's IPO said don't buy the stock you don't even want to rent it. And now
01:02all aboard the hype train. CNBS of all folks have put together a short piece. Will Tesla Robotaxi
01:09live up to 10 years of hype? Jim Cramer seems to think so. I'm not sure if that's a good or bad
01:14thing. So let's watch this. In 2015 Elon Musk made a bold promise that Tesla vehicles will drive
01:20themselves in two years. While the concept of self-driving has investors and enthusiasts excited
01:27Musk and Tesla have a history of missed promises. Next year will probably be 90 percent capable of
01:34autopilot. So I just have to be a bit of a poindexter here. CNBS just said that Tesla and
01:41Musk have a history of missed promises. I'm going to say that word again missed promises because
01:46words matter. And then they immediately follow it with a direct clip of audio of Elon Musk saying
01:52probably making a prediction using the word probably. Now shouldn't have to point this out
01:56but predicting something will probably occur is not a promise. A promise would be I promise or
02:02I guarantee or this will absolutely certainly occur. This is one of the favorite attack vectors
02:07of many Tesla haters. Elon haters who really just reflecting their own self-hatred outward onto
02:11someone or something else because it helps them cope. Elon Musk is a liar. Making a prediction
02:17that turns out to be inaccurate. Neither a promise nor a lie. And of course it is important to
02:21understand when you're doing something that no one has ever done before. A new technological frontier.
02:26It's impossible to know until it actually happens. It's also worth mentioning by the way that most of
02:31the so-called AI experts until the absolutely out of nowhere who saw that coming moment with
02:36LLMs thought artificial general intelligence was many many decades away. Then out of nowhere LLMs
02:42suddenly go from embarrassingly bad to stunningly useful and suddenly all the experts are now
02:48expecting AGI before the end of the decade. We've also seen a huge hockey stick moment in terms of
02:53capabilities on AI generating images. No one saw that coming. No one predicted ahead of time this
02:58is the exact moment the capability is going to surge. It will look like somebody vomited on
03:02canvas being better than 90-95% of the world's artists and able to create close to masterpieces
03:07in a matter of seconds. But here we are. So you have to understand all the predictions from Tesla
03:12around autonomy were based on all of the available information and a guess and that's all they are.
03:18This is very different for example from predicting the timeline on the building of a new factory.
03:22For example if Tesla's already built a factory in China hypothetically and they have and they were to
03:28build a new factory let's say also in China they would have a reference point of how quickly they
03:33were able to do it previously and be able to fairly accurately estimate how long it would
03:37take to erect a new factory because they've done it before it's been done before and even if they
03:41hadn't they could look to other examples and say well others have done it this fast we're even
03:44faster so here's our estimate. But this is an entirely new frontier of technology so we have
03:48to be intellectually honest and reasonable here. Obviously Tesla and Musk have been overly
03:54optimistic but you can't frame that as either dishonest or a broken promise when you're hearing
03:59words like probably or confident or likely or best guess which is what we've been hearing.
04:04Musk got with a bold promise yesterday he said there would be a million Tesla robo car robo
04:09taxis I should say on the road next year. Very confident. Interesting once again we heard from
04:13Andrew a promise he claimed that Musk promised there'd be a million robo taxis on road did he
04:19say did Musk actually promise or was he guessing? About full self-driving functionality being
04:25complete by the end of this year because I'm literally driving it. I don't know I'm the boy
04:28who cried FSD but I man I think we'll be better than human by the end of this year. Now Tesla
04:34has announced plans to reveal a new vehicle which will operate as a dedicated robo taxi
04:39originally in August and now in October. You get one chance to make your first impression
04:46they need to make sure they hit out of the park. As the rescheduled event approaches there are
04:51still many mysteries about Tesla's plan for robo taxis but during Tesla's 2024 Q2 earnings call
04:57Musk reiterated his confidence in realizing its full self-driving efforts. Based on the current
05:02trend it seems as though we should get miles between interventions to be high enough that
05:08it's too far enough in excess of humans that you could do unsupervised possibly by the end of this
05:13year. I would be shocked if we cannot do it next year. Consumer Reports has said Tesla's full self...
05:18All right start with the press. A few years ago I exposed Conjob Distorts a previously once a long
05:24time ago reputable outlet now completely and utterly corrupt and anti-Tesla. I'm sure most
05:30people watching have seen that so I won't rehash it in great detail but these fucks have it in for
05:34Tesla. Lying misleading and deceiving the public. These are the same dipshits just for the record
05:38who literally made a step-by-step tutorial on how to illegally and dangerously trick Tesla's
05:45driver monitoring software into allowing them to do dumb shit while driving the vehicle. Now why on
05:51earth would Consumer Reports publish a fucking tutorial on how to do something extremely
05:58dangerous to cheat a driver monitoring system? Why would they publish a tutorial on how to do that?
06:04No really why would they do that? Oh of course the actual answer is because they're funded from the
06:08legacy automotive industry. A bunch of people working there that are previously legacy automotive.
06:12Bit of a revolving door situation. They have it in for Tesla because Tesla doesn't spend any
06:16monthly advertising in the automotive media and in addition is going to put most of the legacy
06:20automotive companies out of business and they have it in for Tesla. The way the reason they post that
06:24article was to frame Tesla somehow to distort and make it appear as if Tesla's dangerous somehow. Yet
06:29who's dangerous here? The fuckwits who literally went to extreme lengths to make a step-by-step
06:34tutorial on how to cheat the driver monitoring system through a convoluted and complicated
06:39process to do dangerous things on public roads. Why would they do this? Conjob distorts. Is worse
06:44than a wart on a turd. From Musk in recent months emphasizes its AI ambitions with its Robotaxi and
06:52autonomy as critical to its future. The value of Tesla overwhelmingly is autonomy. I recommend
06:57anyone who doesn't believe that Tesla will solve vehicle autonomy should not hold Tesla stock. They
07:03should sell their Tesla stock. Tesla's upcoming Robotaxi. Now what other leader of a company would
07:09say something like that? Very few and he's got a point. Taxi event has generated investor interest.
07:15In the meantime competitors have made progress. Tesla's fallen behind. They were seen as the.
07:21Now look who it is. Everybody's favorite anti-Tesla CNBS fudster who's made an entire
07:27career out of publishing bearish commentary on Tesla, lies about Tesla, giving short sellers
07:32a platform to perform the distort part of their short and distort plan regarding Tesla. Not
07:37surprised to see Laura appearing in this. What I would be surprised to see is her saying anything
07:41at all even slightly positive about Tesla. Except if it's the token counter argument after she
07:46unloads a bunch of FUD. Let's see if she makes any more appearances later in this video.
07:50Pioneer and now now there are other companies that have commercial Robotaxis. In one bullish
07:56estimate Raymond James predicts 50 billion dollars in Robotaxi bookings by 2030. Try FSD.
08:04It is the best consumer product I think since the iPhone. Wall Street gets really excited about the
08:08idea of Tesla nailing it with both FSD and with the idea of a dedicated Robotaxi. Musk has big
08:15plans for what Tesla's Robotaxi offerings would look like. It's like Airbnb and Uber to some
08:22degree. So like there'll be some cars that Tesla owns itself it's kind of like an Uber fashion
08:27but then for the fleet that is owned by our customers it will be like an Airbnb thing.
08:32At a global scale you know the total potential for... Oh shit stop the press this is just too
08:38good to be true. I recognize this name. This is the guy from Guidehouse Insights who charged a
08:44few thousand dollars for their upside down autonomy leaderboard report last I checked.
08:48You guys remember that. Let's stick it up we gotta do this. Okay so just checking as I record
08:53if you want to have a look at their leaderboard their autonomy leaderboard currently called the
08:58Guidehouse Insights leaderboard on automated driving systems you too can grab a copy of this
09:04for a mere 3,950 US dollars bro. I think I'm massively undercharging for access to my Patreon
09:11my valuation model my health and energy tracker and the hundreds of exclusive videos over on
09:15Patreon if these guys are charging only four thousand dollars for this upside down opinion.
09:21Wow oh my god who buys this oh wait I know who buys this it's the dimwits on Wall Street who
09:27keep claiming that Tesla's last or now it makes sense. So I just wanted to show you guys a
09:32snapshot of a prior version of this leaderboard I don't know what year it's from it's probably
09:362020 or 21. At some point they appear to have stopped sharing this publicly maybe it was because
09:42of the relentless roasting from literally everybody who's got a brain who's watching this
09:46space going what it's upside down you fucking morons I don't know. But this showed Tesla as
09:52the follower right so you've got leaders in autonomy contenders challenges and followers
09:58Tesla following Tesla last in both execution and strategy according to these very bright people
10:06crews who currently I believe are still not operating vehicles rest in peace a number of
10:12companies that no longer exist who've shut down their autonomy efforts here all ahead of Tesla
10:17and look I don't want to kick a dmf when they're down yes I do what a dmf but here's a 2019 version
10:24I think the one we just saw was more recent than that check this out okay Tesla roughly dead last
10:30although depending on how you look at it as far off as both Apple and voyage auto who okay so
10:35let's name all of the companies that led Tesla by the way for those who don't know Navigant Research
10:41became Guidehouse Insights there was an acquisition or a rebranding just to be clear
10:45maybe because I was so embarrassed about this they had to I don't know for sure okay so let's
10:51see here ahead of Tesla back in 2019 according to these very smart people let's see here Zoox
10:56May Mobility Uber what Navia Volvo Hyundai BMW Mitsubishi Daimler Toyota Intel Volkswagen
11:06Ford yeah okay I think I made my point back to Sam the principal anal cyst at Guidehouse Insights
11:12now look I don't want to be too much of a hater okay it's just that back in 2019 2020 2021 when
11:18these clowns were publishing their supposed autonomy leaderboard it didn't make sense
11:23what Tesla vehicles were already able to do was light years ahead of many of the companies they
11:27were listing well ahead of Tesla e.g all of the legacy automotive companies it didn't make sense
11:32it's okay to have a prediction that's wrong it's okay to charge for your prediction that's wrong
11:36but it was obviously wrong at the time and it didn't make sense it was not credible but I'm
11:40sure Sam has now changed his tune and obviously has finally realized the error of his previous
11:47ways you know the total potential for ride hailing is probably well over a trillion dollars but
11:53actually being able to deliver on that is the big challenge and also doing it profitably this
11:59is something that so far nobody has figured out I mean everything you said there is true well over
12:06a trillion dollars and doing it profitably certainly a challenge and currently yeah the
12:09companies that are operating their tiny little fleets geofenced areas pre-mapping in HD like
12:15Waymo they're losing staggering amounts of money might have something to do with the extreme
12:20overhead the necessity of pre-mapping in HD and the hundred plus a thousand dollar vehicles
12:25required to operate in those tiny little pockets of a few cities.
12:40Tesla's ambitions to create autonomous vehicles started with advanced driver assistance features
12:44it began introducing in its vehicles in 2015. The first iteration autopilot which was sold as an
12:50add-on and comes standard today combined adaptive cruise control and auto steer a lane centering
12:56function. Enhanced autopilot became a paid upgrade to regular autopilot adding navigate on autopilot
13:03auto lane change and a slate of other features such as smart summon and then there's full self
13:08driving taking all of these features and incorporated traffic and stop sign control
13:14which allowed Tesla's to identify stop signs and traffic lights and automatically stop as needed.
13:20In a recent update the brand name was updated to full self-driving supervised. For about a decade
13:25now Elon Musk has been promising that the company was going to turn existing EVs made by Tesla into
13:33autonomous vehicles with a software update instead their vehicles with advanced driver
13:38assistance systems it's not the same thing as a so-called robo taxi. Recently the company has
13:45expanded its scope for autonomy to also include a new vehicle that will operate as a dedicated
13:50robo taxi. Elon Musk recently referred to it as a cyber cab so there's some excitement and
13:55expectation that it might have the aesthetic of the cyber truck but the company hasn't even taken
13:59the wraps off. To gauge whether Tesla is ready for robo taxis one must first look at its software
14:04capabilities. Tesla says that they're what's known as a level two vehicle and that's a technical term
14:11that's used in regulation and legislation. Level two vehicle means that the driver is there to
14:17supervise what's going on with the self-driving features. A level two vehicle is never ever
14:23supposed to be a robo taxi. Most companies that have developed autonomous vehicles meaning level
14:29three plus hands-free systems use a wider array of sensors in their vehicles. Unlike competitors
14:36Elon Musk has been adamant about using a vision-based approach to self-driving. Which
14:41obviously proves that Elon is wrong Tesla will fail they're doomed and all the companies relying
14:46on completely unnecessary extremely expensive additional sensors that can cause mixed signals
14:52confusion and by the way humans don't need to drive are totally going to be successful. After
14:57all Tesla has a history of doing things that everyone else thinks are impossible or wrong and
15:03then being wrong so it's definitely not a counter indicator if Tesla's doing a certain thing and
15:09Musk is literally yelling from the rooftops that everyone not doing the certain thing is going to
15:12fail. But I do want to stop trolling for a moment this is actually quite important Tesla's the only
15:16company at scale actually the only company at scale period trying autonomy but the only company
15:21attempting to scale autonomous vehicles with a pure vision-based system. Either the entire industry
15:26is wrong and Tesla's right or the entire industry is right and Tesla's wrong.
15:34Relies mostly on cameras. When they started they had eight cameras plus radar and ultrasonic
15:39sensors and they've gradually eliminated the radar and the ultrasonic sensors and now
15:44this is true and at the time I mentioned years ago you can fact check me the most bullish signal
15:50you will see from companies working on autonomy is the deletion of sensors. It's a strong signal
15:56no pun intended that the software's capability and safety profile has increased such that they
16:01no longer need excess sensors. As I've said in the past humans do a pretty decent job not perfect
16:07of driving with just two cameras obviously if you want autonomous vehicles you'd probably prefer
16:11to have 360 degree vision right so you need cameras to surround the vehicle but that's it
16:16and long term I actually believe that Tesla will eventually begin deleting some of the visual
16:21cameras as well because if they can use a slight fisheye type of lens and have software that
16:26removes distortion eight cameras is probably excessive not now but over time my prediction
16:32on the record I can't wait to clip this when it happens. Future Tesla autonomous vehicles
16:36eventually will have less than eight visual cameras and no other sensors necessary for
16:41driving and when you see a company bragging about having 27 000 different cameras and
16:45lidars just remember folks complexity appeals to stupid people. The more sensors a company's
16:52bragging about having on their vehicle specifically to help with driver assist or eventually autonomy
16:57all other things being equal the further behind they are and the more shame they should carry
17:02when repeating the number of senses they have. They just have the cameras it's never going to be
17:06a sufficiently reliable solution especially with the relatively low resolution cameras that they
17:11use which makes it even worse. I think the vision-based approach to autonomy over the long
17:16haul has enormous potential. Well Brian I agree. At the current time however though it's pretty clear
17:25that highly automated vehicle technologies are going to need more than vision-based sensing.
17:31Well Brian I disagree I knew this was coming I could tell he's like a researcher at a university
17:36I mean obvious things are obvious. Now look his point is fair I mean as this goes to air and as
17:42I'm recording this there are no companies at scale using a pure vision-based system doing any
17:46autonomous rides but there is a company using a vision-only system that may not have sought
17:53and received regulatory approval to do autonomous rides but has vehicles on roads that customers are
17:59literally posting videos of intervention-free drives that are lasting 10 20 50 minutes an hour
18:05two hours not intervening at all. You can't square this claim that you'll need a fuck ton of these
18:10ridiculous and redundant and unnecessary sensors to achieve autonomy in the near term when you can
18:16watch videos dozens hundreds of them of intervention-free drives on vehicles running a
18:20vision-only system today. You just can't make that argument. While the company has managed to deploy
18:26functioning driver assist features this way it has shortcomings. Cameras are really good for doing
18:31object classification but because you don't know where the light source is if it sees a billboard
18:37on the side of a bus with a picture of a person it'll often identify that as a pedestrian because
18:42it doesn't have that depth perception where. So super smart Sam I think that was his name
18:47wasn't it from Guidehouse Insights does raise an interesting point the less intelligent the
18:51software the more likely it is to see a person on a billboard on the back of a bus and think
18:55it's a person but now he's going a little bit too far and suggesting that vision-only cameras don't
19:00have depth perception. In mid-2023 Ashok Elliswamy from Tesla leading the AI project on autonomy
19:07she had a detailed presentation and by the way it wasn't the first time Tesla discussed this
19:11regarding occupancy networks. Now what we're looking at here I'm just going to press play
19:15in the background so watch on screen now you see this shit what are we looking at here we are
19:20looking at depth perception of objects in the real world being generated via artificial
19:26intelligence using a vision-based system there's no LIDAR here yet how in the fuck does the vehicle
19:32know where things are what objects are in the way this occupancy network is doing the very thing that
19:37Sam is suggesting is not possible unless of course you bounce lasers off shit using LIDAR for depth
19:43perception once again you're a human right I know that almost everyone watching this at least as I've
19:48published it maybe there'll be AI's watching in the future if so I for one welcome our new AI
19:53overlords everyone watching this can do the same trick I mean how often do you walk into walls and
19:57objects probably not very often how are you doing that without having a LIDAR bouncing lasers off
20:02shit oh wait uh because you've got a vision system that works just fine again on screen now this is
20:07happening with a vision only depth perception with vision only anyway back to super smart Sam
20:14to tell us more about how cameras can't do depth perception whereas if you had a LIDAR on there
20:21the LIDAR would show that is actually a flat surface so there's not actually a human being
20:26so that's where having the combination of sensors is very valuable in 2020 Tesla released a beta
20:32version of full self-driving allowing customers who purchased the add-on to test the feature
20:38FSD is supposed to be basically a robo-taxi except that the person behind the steering
20:45wheel is expected to act as a safety driver because it's a robo-taxi in training it's
20:49immature technology I mean kind of a fair point and you've got to give credit to Tesla some 200
20:54IQ shit here just check it out ready sell a product to customers make money on the product
20:58sell them software on the product which is almost pure profit make thousands of dollars on the
21:01software and then have the paying customer train and supervise the software for you via fleet
21:07learning which means the software universally improves every intervention sent back to home
21:11base they can do comparisons between what the software would have done versus the human
21:15intervention oh great that's a data point let's improve the software I can't underscore enough
21:20what a big brain achievement this was to have paying customers train this software at scale
21:25the alternative there's a so-called competition when it comes to autonomy is literally paying
21:29an engineer or safety driver a six-figure salary in a six-figure vehicle to do the same thing at a
21:35piddly scale CNBC recently took a ride with a few Tesla owners using FSD version 12.3.6 oh now this
21:43will be good while the drivers acknowledged it doesn't turn their cars into robo-taxis they have
21:49seen it improve with recent software updates but it still struggles with certain things this is
21:54where I'm going to be prepared to take over because I don't think it can make this turn
21:58this is pretty sharp even for me
22:06and it decided not to take that turn and actually when I do take over it gives me the opportunity to
22:12leave a voice comment so I'll I can tell why I'm taking over and then I think they use that as
22:18feedback Nitesh Mehta has had Tesla's full self-driving for two years but when he first started
22:25using it the shortcomings were apparent honestly it became a chore because it was this of course
22:31was universal feedback early on of course everyone knew that right it's beta software you're literally
22:36helping Tesla you're paying for a product you're asking for early access to an unfinished product
22:41and you're agreeing to help Tesla of course it's going to be a chore be interesting to hear the
22:45difference between then and now but obviously everyone initially signing up at the time knew
22:48what they were doing they're literally beta testing software it required quite a lot of
22:53your attention it was just harsh and bumpy and it would speed up it would slow down it would make
22:59unusual sounds again this is all absolutely accurate the software while impressive at the
23:05time certainly as I described it was like a drunk toddler but that changed and that changed with
23:10the version 12 dude is definitely well informed and speaking the truth v12 by the way was the
23:15version trained end-to-end on video where Tesla deleted 300 000 plus lines of code I flipped out
23:22at the time explaining the implications why this was a huge watershed moment they'd blown it open
23:27now it was just a matter of time no more unknown unknowns the path to full autonomy clearly lit now
23:31just a matter of time and here we are all right so we are here in Mountain View. Bibraheet Halder
23:38another Tesla fan who works in the autonomous driving industry developing tech for mining
23:43has been using Tesla's driver assist features since 2016. I've been doing autonomy since
23:49autonomy got started back in 2003 so I have been in the kitchen for you know over 20 years
23:56I'm excited about what's coming but I'm also very very cautious about I know the limitations
24:01back in 2016 I used to let it drive in the highway and highway it manages pretty well
24:08but obviously that time I had to really really monitor very closely and then over the time
24:13highway become much more comfortable I think what the progression I'm seeing that in the city level
24:19now this is getting better but city I still take over there's a lot of area that it doesn't do
24:25well in city. Musk hyped the next FSD version as having a 5 to 10x improvement in miles per
24:33intervention but the company also started calling this option FSD supervised an acknowledgement that
24:38the driver must stay in control of their car's steering and braking at all times. According to
24:43the most recent data from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration Tesla has reported
24:491,399 collisions in which driver assistance systems were engaged within 30 seconds of the
24:56crash with 31 of these resulting in alleged fatality. All right hold up a second I just
25:01so much to discuss here first of all if the driver assistance software was engaged within 30 seconds
25:07of the crash what huh as opposed to during the crash second of all these numbers are absolutely
25:13meaningless without context how many Tesla vehicles in the fleet how many crashes occur in other
25:18vehicles per month like these are just meaningless numbers of course they look bad but there's no
25:22context here at all my Tesla's got seven million vehicles on roads as I record this by the way I
25:26just got to give credit so far the clips with what appear to be Tesla fans are actually really
25:31reasonable I was expecting a bunch of fun and interventions not yet they might be coming in
25:35fact this might be the the segue into those now but just remember if you're in a Tesla vehicle
25:40and you crash it's your fault whether or not the driver assistance system is engaged after all
25:46Tesla explicitly tells everybody that they need to be paying attention they're responsible.
25:51NHTSA began gathering data from automakers on collisions involving advanced driver assistance
25:57systems in June 2021. Tesla reported a higher number of collisions where ADAS was engaged
26:04compared to other automakers in the US. One factor is that Tesla started offering these
26:09systems as a standard option in all their cars before. Wait a fucking second I was sipping coffee
26:15then I wasn't paying super close attention but did they just claim that Tesla was showing a
26:19much higher rate of collisions and accidents with their driver assistance software engaged
26:25because I'm looking on screen now and we're seeing absolute numbers here not relative
26:29numbers and then CMS just goes on to explain well Tesla has a lot of vehicles using this
26:32but they the way that they just frame this was not per mile or per vehicle using the software
26:37but just total number this is an exceptionally dishonest way of presenting the data you have to
26:42normalize this for the number like if there's 19 Ford vehicles let's just extreme example right
26:47let's just say that there's 19 Ford vehicles in total in the United States that have any form of
26:51driver assistant all 19 of them got in an accident and let's say there was 3 million Tesla vehicles
26:56using this software and 1399 of them were involved in a collision while the software was active
27:01the way that this is being presented by CMS this is exactly how you'd see that data which
27:06in in that case and it's not an actual real world example just imagine it would mean literally 100%
27:10of the Ford vehicles using this software involved in accidents and like 0.00001% of the Tesla
27:15vehicles but you wouldn't know this looking at these absolute numbers of course the fact that
27:19Tesla doesn't spend money advertising on CNBS and Honda Subaru General Motors Toyota and Ford spend
27:26combined hundreds of millions of dollars probably just on CNBS and billions advertising in the media
27:32has absolutely nothing to do with why they would frame something like this competitors the companies
27:36made progress on advanced driver assistance systems but they really haven't come out with
27:41anything that's safe to use hands-free and they could operate as like a level 4 style robo taxis
27:47some Tesla owners have actually sued the company because they want money back after paying for FSD
27:53what they expected would upgrade their cars to like a true robo taxi experience and they never
27:57got it in the lifetime of the vehicle with AI and automation at the forefront of Tesla's priorities
28:03the company reportedly cancelled plans for its affordable mass market vehicle in favor of a
28:08dedicated driverless car built off of the same fact check false I don't know where this came
28:13from the fake news that's where it came from this this is not true a new lower cost Tesla vehicle
28:18will enter production in the future it's it's going to be built on the same platform as a
28:22dedicated robot taxi they're unveiling tomorrow I know what happened here by the way sufferers
28:27of small brain syndrome heard that Tesla was implementing some of the learnings from that
28:30next gen vehicle in an interim range of vehicles to drive cost down a little bit get production
28:34capacity to around three million a year and then assumed due to their small brain syndrome that
28:37must must only mean that the next gen vehicle the much more affordable one is cancelled just
28:42remember folks you can't fix stupid put a pin in it Tesla will be building a much more affordable
28:47next generation vehicle and selling it to consumers and it will be built on the same platform as a
28:51dedicated robot taxi which will be manufactured with Tesla's unboxed manufacturing system the
28:56modular manufacturing system you can count on it a platform but little is known about Tesla's
29:02latest vehicle and whether it can operate a fully functioning robot taxi based off of its FSD
29:07software I've been following Tesla for 16 years now since they unveiled the original Roadster
29:12and Elon Musk has never set a deadline he couldn't miss I was not at all surprised that they missed
29:17this one they had to probably go back to the drawing board on something I wanted to make some
29:22important changes that I think would improve the robot taxi the thing that we're the main
29:27thing that we're going to show and we're also going to show off a couple of other things
29:31I think the prototype is going to be pretty eye-popping I think there could be some
29:35announcements around partnerships specifically new executives you know that that maybe lead
29:40this unit that would be I think front and center for Wall Street they need to actually now deliver
29:47can't delay it anymore and a year from now in 2025 you actually need to see these things
29:54rolled out as October 10th approaches details have emerged that Tesla plans to host the
29:59RoboTaxi event at the Warner Brothers studio backlot in Burbank California but despite
30:04whatever is showcased that day the company issued a disclaimer in its 2024 Q2 earnings
30:09statement that its RoboTaxi deployment depends on technological advancement and regulatory approval
30:16no shit Sherlock please tell us more Captain Obvious you just literally open the Tesla app
30:21and summon a car and we send a car to pick you up and take you somewhere and we'll have a fleet
30:26that's on an order of seven million dedicated to low autonomy soon in the years to come it'll be
30:32over 10 million then over 20 million this basically instant scale with a software engine
30:38when you think about ride sharing the likes of Uber and Lyft I mean this is Tesla's answer
30:43it creates almost a whole nother mini company in terms of where this could all lead to
30:48Elon Musk has talked about Tesla owners being able to generate income one day by adding their
30:53vehicles to its autonomous network at its autonomy investor day in 2019 Musk predicted
30:59one could generate $30,000 in gross income if their car operated as a RoboTaxi he says the
31:06revenue that Tesla owners will get from making their vehicles part of the RoboTaxi fleet will
31:12far exceed the monthly payment for a Tesla but even if existing Tesla so let's go out on a limb
31:19here just imagine if this is true actually think about it the value proposition to a potential
31:23customer purchasing a Tesla vehicle if the vehicle itself can more than pay for its cost
31:28it's the no-brainer of no-brainers and by the way directly in line with Tesla's mission statement
31:32right they want to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy the best way to
31:35do that with vehicles is to disrupt miles and gasoline vehicles with electric and the best way
31:40to do that is via autonomous vehicles with a much higher utilization rate and the best way to do that
31:44is to subsidize the cost for customers to buy them and produce as many yourselves as well now if the
31:50vehicle can bring in let's just say $30,000 in year one in gross revenue we've got some expenses
31:54there but a few years after purchase it's more than paid for itself but if you're financing the
31:58vehicle with monthly repayments it's going to be paying for itself more than covering the monthly
32:02repayments from day one now just imagine what happens if there's lenders out there that looking
32:06at the numbers on this thing even if you couldn't previously qualify for a loan because you have a
32:10low income or you're not even employed if this thing itself can massively cover the expenses of
32:15the repayments and then some it's going to be a no-brainer for customers and for financial
32:20industries of lenders to actually lend for these things i don't think the world's ready
32:23as the owners receive the capability to operate their cars as robo taxis through an over the air
32:29software update the vehicles are missing several other features necessary for driverless ride
32:33hailing service if you're going to operate a an automated ride hailing service like what waymo
32:39does you need a vehicle that has been expressly configured for that use case well i'm looking
32:45forward to hearing where this is going just like how before you put a home on airbnb you need a
32:50home that's specifically configured for airbnb just like how every driver in the uber network
32:57wasn't actually able to add their personally owned vehicle and start driving it around
33:02instead it needed to be configured first for the uber network what can't wait to hear this
33:06so you need sensors and cameras on the inside of the cabin to monitor okay has a passenger gotten
33:12sick have they left something behind did they smoke in the car should we tell him about the
33:17internal cabin camera tesla does have one camera mounted up by the mirror that is a fisheye camera
33:24but it doesn't doesn't give you that much detail with a human driven cab or ride hailing vehicle
33:30somebody gets out of the car and they don't close the door properly you know the driver
33:33can always hop out and close the door if you don't have a driver in the vehicle you need to
33:38be able to do all of that stuff automatically and obviously tesla vehicles don't have that
33:43capability the amount of back-end capital involved in supporting robo taxis that exist today is immense
33:51it is far more than developing the software to enable a robo taxi to operate it is the entire
33:57ecosystem of what happens when things go wrong how do vehicles deal with complex situations where
34:03the 5g network is no longer you know attainable for some reason lots of unknowns that have to be
34:08factored in here that waymo has been struggling with for years waymo recently received an additional
34:145 billion dollars in funding to support its operations and expansion adding to 4.75 billion
34:20in funding the robo taxi unit raised since 2020 you've got the expense of the yes solving this
34:26problem ain't cheap cumulatively we're looking at 10 plus billion dollars of sunk costs so far
34:31for waymo meanwhile like i said earlier tesla literally selling products to customers making
34:37a fat profit on them and having the customers volunteer to train the software i wonder how
34:42many miles waymo vehicles will need to start driving once they eventually reach profitability
34:48by the way they probably never will they go bankrupt but anyway in order to recoup that 10
34:52plus billion dollars of sunk cost those vehicles which is not going to be inexpensive if you're
34:57going to do it right you have to maintain those vehicles you have to clean them you have to charge
35:01them so there's a lot of other operational expenses that you suddenly add in there are also
35:06major regulatory hurdles nbc news reported in april that tesla hadn't contacted regulators in
35:12the states of arizona california and nevada to apply for the licenses and permits needed to test
35:18autonomous vehicles without a safety driver or to run a commercial robo taxi service it took waymo
35:24eight months to get its initial permit from the california public utilities commission
35:28with version 12.5 and maybe 12.6 but pretty soon we will ask regulatory approval of the tesla
35:36supervised fsd in europe china and other countries i think we're unlikely to receive that before the
35:43end of the year there's a very fragmented array of you know permits licenses and regulatory
35:49standards you have to meet it is a significant challenge and we haven't seen a lot of evidence
35:55that tesla is knocking down all those hurdles tesla did not respond to cnbc's request for comment
36:01in the race for robo taxis some competitors have backed away from their driverless ambition
36:06ford uber and apple abandoned plans to develop but wait a minute didn't we look at the autonomy
36:12leaderboard earlier and ford apple in fact literally all three companies just named were
36:18ahead of tesla on the autonomy leaderboard and now we're hearing that all three of these companies
36:22that were listed as ahead of tesla in both execution and strategy have abandoned plans
36:28why would a company that's ahead of tesla and was ahead of tesla years ago in autonomy have
36:32abandoned plans after all it's a multi-trillion dollar opportunity why would you just give up if
36:37you're ahead of tesla it's weird i'm sure they'll be asking sam for comment their own autonomous
36:42vehicles and general motors's cruise has run into setbacks it recently said its purpose built robo
36:49hold up a fucking minute now i'm not a conspiracy theorist because if i was i'd say that because
36:53gm spends so much money advertising on cnbs cnbs would never actually say the real truth of what
36:57happened with james cruise but the actual truth of what happened with james cruise a setback
37:02was a massive cover-up of a safety incident in which a different vehicle hit a pedestrian the
37:07pedestrian essentially flew into the path of the cruise vehicle and then the cruise vehicle
37:11sensing the shit was hitting the fan instead of freezing in place initiated a pullover maneuver
37:16and drove for dozens if not 100 plus feet with a fucking half-dead person under the vehicle
37:21and then cruise lied to investigators and regulators about what happened they edited
37:26video and didn't provide the full clip of the full incident engaged in a massive and unconscionable
37:32cover-up of the truth got found out and then had their service suspended globally now i'm obviously
37:37not a conspiracy theorist so the reason that cnbs wouldn't explain in more detail what happened has
37:42nothing to do with the fact that gm and when cruise butters the bread at cnbs so actually i
37:48don't even know why i mentioned that yeah let's let's move on tell us more about these setbacks
37:52please oh taxi the cruise origin is indefinitely delayed with ceo mary barra citing regulatory
37:59uncertainty around the vehicle's lack of manual controls but there are some companies pushing
38:04ahead amazon owned zooks is operating its driverless shuttles giving employees rides and
38:10gearing up for commercial robo taxi services in china players including pony.ai didi and baidu
38:18are launching driverless operations as well alphabets waymo formerly the google self-driving
38:24car project has been undergoing testing since 2009 and launched an early rider program in the
38:30metro phoenix area in 2017 it began offering fully driverless rides to the public in october 2020
38:36since then it has doubled its operating area in phoenix in 2023 launched service in san francisco
38:43in los angeles and has started initial rider only testing in austin with plans to launch later this
38:48as of august waymo surpassed 100 000 paid rides per week among the the companies operating in the
38:56u.s they've they're far and away way ahead of everybody else in terms of getting this
39:01commercialized i think waymo's had very successful strategy customers have loved it waymo tests and
39:08launches service in limited geographies slowly expanding operations as regions are mapped and
39:13the vehicle's capabilities improve musk has criticized this approach our solution is a
39:18generalized solution like whatever else has been if you see it like waymo and whatnot they have a
39:23very localized solution it's quite fragile their ability to expand rapidly is limited our solution
39:29is a general solution that works anywhere it would even work on a different earth waymo hasn't been
39:34without issues however the national highway traffic safety administration opened an investigation into
39:39waymo robo taxis driving behavior and potentially disobeying traffic safety laws to support its
39:45early driverless operations waymo relies on remote operators to assist when encountering
39:50scenarios that confuse its robo taxis people say well these things won't drive drunk and they won't
39:55drive uh distracted because they're not texting but it turns out they have software defects so
40:01the jury is still out on whether robo taxis will be safer than human drivers in a recent no priors
40:07interview andre karpathy tesla's former head of ai says he believes tesla is ahead of waymo in its
40:14self-driving approach but what would he know it's not like he's an ai expert specifically on
40:19autonomous vehicles so his opinion obviously doesn't count especially now that he's left the
40:24company and therefore is completely free to say what he actually thinks waymo looks like it's
40:29winning kind of right now but i think when we look in 10 years and he's actually at scale and where
40:33most of the revenue is coming from i still think they're uh they're ahead in that sense i don't
40:36think that tesla is going to become a formative competitor to to waymo i think there is a safety
40:43equation here that waymo understands to a much greater degree you can't beta test on public
40:49roads forever you need to pay put a safety bar in place that is above and beyond what the average
40:55driver would accept even though waymo is you know by far the most advanced right now um it's still
41:02only three cities in the united states there's still lots of time for others to come in you know
41:07and grow the market by no means is waymo one but until more details are revealed analysts can only
41:13speculate about when tesla's robo taxis will actually be on the roads our expectation by mid
41:192025 you'll have rides out there now it depends on the city in terms of the regulatory and how
41:26tesla navigates that but this is not years away now i mean we're talking months and it speaks to
41:33my view this is an autonomous ai story they're actually going to be the ones that lead what i
41:39really almost view is like an fs the autonomous revenue dan eyes is talking the talk but last i
41:45check his price target does not seem to be walking the walk if he really does believe tesla's gonna
41:50lead in terms of autonomy and by mid next year less than 12 months away i'm recording this in
41:57october a nine month skip will take tesla's already beginning to launch this service finding it hard
42:03to square that with this current price target on tesla which of course it's not an estimate of what
42:07tesla stock will be worth but the value of the company and surely the value of the company if
42:11they successfully launch this service going after a multi-trillion dollar opportunity and they're
42:15going to lead last i heard then i've had a price target of three hundred dollars on tesla stock
42:20up about 25 percent from where it is as i record this finding it hard to square the comments with
42:25the price target there will be a lot of hype and then you know we won't see it again for probably
42:30at least another three years after that maybe longer i would not expect to see you know a
42:35functioning tesla robo taxi on the road for at least several more years regardless of what it
42:41looks like or what hardware it has on it i don't expect the robo taxi day come and all of a sudden
42:46every tesla become robo taxi not gonna happen these are very marketing events it meant for
42:52creating excitement and the buzz i'll also sign up for the robo taxi thing if they you know i can
42:57use my car as a robo taxi just for the heck of it right yeah i am always like the head of like
43:03early adapter of early adapter so i'll try it just for the experience of it so an interesting segment
43:08here from cnbs i was shocked that but where were the interventions on the i mean i really expected
43:13that it was just going to be an absolute fudfest with the tesla owners showing off fsd there was
43:16none of that although they didn't really actually show off fsd they just spoke to the owners a bit
43:21of a mislead there but anyway of course we had had to have a university professor explaining
43:27how lidar is necessary an industry expert the expert of experts on autonomy the guy from
43:32guidehouse insights most interestingly though is that the narrative really is starting to change
43:37whether or not people are skeptical about fsd and robo taxis full autonomy 12 months away a few
43:44years away when even the skeptics are thinking it's just a few years until tesla robo taxis are
43:48deployed you know there's massive change taking place anyway it's only a matter of hours until
43:53tesla's autonomy event we robot 10 10 i for one can't fucking wait want more content early access
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