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00:00We're going to talk about a huge race, the QE2, the second challenge.
00:03That's going to go as race number eight on Saturday, October the 12th
00:07over at Keeneland. In our second segment we'll talk pick five
00:10and then in the last segment we'll talk some Belmont at the big A. They have a
00:13couple good stakes races over there. So the ladies get center stage this
00:17weekend Alexa. Let's take a look at this field for
00:20the Queen Elizabeth the second challenge cup
00:23over at Keeneland in race number eight. It's going to be the number one pin up
00:27Betty kicking things off and this is a nice filly that likes a mile
00:30and an eighth. I'd imagine she'll be forwardly placed from the inside.
00:34The issue that I have with her she's going to have to turn the tables on
00:37waves of mischief who's gotten the better of her the last couple times
00:40and waves of mischief is probably not the toughest of her rivals in here so
00:44this is going to be a more difficult group than she's had to face.
00:48It is you know she really is a consistent
00:51good filly you know out of her 12 starts she's only run two but her speed figures
00:55are consistent and she's been in the money eight out of
00:5712 times. The two races she has won were at today's distance so that's a plus.
01:02I can see her playing I can see playing her in the exotics but
01:06you know I don't know how you felt looking at this race I was like
01:09oh my god. I can't even stick on air what you texted me. I know I was like
01:16because then we'd get thrown off for FCC violations and stuff like that but
01:19it's a difficult race. Oh competitive it is so so so competitive and I really
01:23usually like really competitive races because
01:27you get good prices there's not gonna be a super strong heavy favorite you can
01:30make a lot of good money but I also like usually having some strong opinion
01:35in competitive races and this one is just frankly very tough so
01:39yeah Pinup Buddy's gonna have tough competition to face.
01:43Yeah you're gonna really have to put your handicapping hats on for this race
01:46every single horse you can make cases for and against.
01:50Caitlyn her greatness comes down from a track that you and I love to play
01:54Woodbine and what was so impressive about her Alexa
01:57she actually beat the boys last time out in the king's plate which is the
02:01kind of Canadian version of the Kentucky Derby so
02:04we know she can get the distance no problem she's proven on the grass
02:08and she beat the boys so she's kind of an interesting player.
02:12She is interesting very talented like you're saying
02:15has a number of very fast workouts coming into this so I like that a lot
02:18she's super fit I do think this arguably will be some of
02:23the toughest competition she's going up against and I think this will be
02:26she'll need to improve off that king's plate start again
02:30what's using her for the price because 12 to 1 plus 1200 I mean those are
02:34really fantastic odds but this is a tough field and she's got some
02:37versatility to her but I think with just that one race on the grass we probably
02:41need to see just a little bit more from her overall
02:43on the green stuff we get to the number three she feels pretty
02:46and she does feel like one of the top contenders in here
02:49Alexa she goes out for the Cherie DeVoe barn who just continues to step forward
02:53as like one of these big prominent barns now with tons of star
02:57horses under her care the blinkers come on for
03:00she feels pretty I'll say that while she won one of her
03:03three races this year it's probably been a little disappointing for her because
03:06she's been the heavy favorite twice and been defeated I don't know if the
03:10mile and eight is the best distance for her it seems like she gets a little bit
03:13short after the mile but I have an opinion
03:17that she'll probably be one of the horses here late in stretch that's you
03:20know in the mix she'll be in the mix for sure she'll be
03:23the tepid favorite in here I'm guessing morning line five to two or plus 250
03:28and I mean yeah you cannot ignore Cherie DeVoe right now I mean she is
03:33on fire at keeneland I mean she's on fire all over the place but at this
03:37keeneland meet she's won a third of her starts been in the money
03:40over 50 percent of the time so you really can't ignore her but with how
03:44competitive this field is I'd be hesitant to use she feels
03:48pretty if she does go off lower than her morning line odds I would
03:52want at least that five to two in order to better
03:55completely agree with you when it's a competitive race
03:58that means if you're giving chances to many horses in there
04:01you want to bet the horses that are probably the biggest odds that are going
04:04to give you the most value there so like moving to a horse like the number
04:08four waves of mischief it just shows you how competitive this
04:11race is this is a horse who's been in really nice form she comes off a second
04:15place effort last time out at Kentucky two back was a winner if you're just
04:18looking at speed figures she's not that far out of it she's just
04:22also going to have to step up and face most likely the toughest group she's
04:25ever dealt with yeah absolutely you know she's been
04:28constantly improving minus that one start at woodbine which was on synthetic
04:32and you know not turf and I'm pretty comfortable just
04:36throwing that out and ignoring that she's also won here at Keeneland in
04:40April for her first start going long on the
04:42turf so we don't have to worry about you know the distance surface combination
04:45there and this track she does have a little bit of a similar
04:49running style to quite a few in here she's I think gonna want
04:52a stalking trip so that's a little bit negative because I think that
04:56position is going to be coveted I run the risk of sounding like a broken
05:00record in here I can see betting her with the odds but it's
05:03she's gonna have to improve yeah that's the thing with here this is one of those
05:06races where you're probably going to be watching this race on Saturday
05:09and there's going to be a couple horses that float up those might be the horses
05:12that you want to key in on I got to get the voice ready for the
05:15number five soprano soprano I think a major player coming in
05:21from Ireland this is a horse who most recently was third behind Porta Fortuna
05:25and that's going to be one of the favorites in the Breeders Cup she has
05:28faced really really tough company Alexa she
05:32has and this is the first time in the US
05:34ran that really decent race last out in Ireland in the group one
05:38matron stakes and I I once asked one of my handicapping mentors
05:42how do I really truly compare these you know foreign races to US races and he
05:47told me he feels like their grade twos are like our grade ones and their grade
05:51threes are like our grade two so their group one races I see is a little
05:56bit higher level than our grade one races so
05:59I mean she did really well in that spot so I do
06:02have some confidence there and as we get to the six I know oversubscribed is
06:06a horse that you like a little bit Alexa so why don't you start us off talking
06:09about this one yeah I like her a lot she's a closer
06:12usually coming from four or five lengths off however two back she came
06:15from 19 lengths behind and one by three so essentially closed like almost 25
06:20lengths her trainer is Chad Brown who's won this
06:22race four out of last last six years so this is his element he's
06:27also been in the money six out of ten starts this
06:29meet at Keeneland so oversubscribed I think is a big player
06:32and you'll see in this short meet a lot of these barns you were just talking
06:35about this with Cherie DeVoe they will have their horses primed and
06:38pointed for just the four weeks or five weeks that this meet goes so you'll see
06:42them having all these horses cycling in just
06:44ready to fire uh the number seven Buchu is the next one we take a look at
06:48I just feel like she might be a cut below this group Alexa like really
06:53honest come like capable of a big effort but
06:55this is probably going to be a lot different group than what she's used to
06:58I agree you know she really was doing great and then just evened out
07:02and you know as a three-year-old developing into her prime I want to see
07:05that development and I'm not seeing it so I'm
07:08gonna pass with Pounce the question that I ask is
07:11does she want the mile in an eighth Pounce is certainly capable of big
07:15efforts and she could be forwardly placed in here
07:18but does she want to get this distance I'm not
07:21super concerned about that is I mean last out was a shorter race than she'd
07:25been running and clearly didn't like that so I do
07:27think she likes the longer distance I think she'll want to be near the lead
07:30and has you know some more gas early in the race but also was able to
07:34close in one of her starts so I do think
07:36Pounce is versatile the number nine Grayosh was so impressive last time out
07:40because she faced she feels pretty she feels pretty was the heavy favorite that
07:43day and honestly Grayosh just ran right by
07:46her no excuses at all she was just better
07:49Flavian Pratt jumps back aboard for Brown talk to us about Grayosh
07:52yeah I mean another Chad Brown contingent in here you have to pay
07:56attention to her um you know she's got one of the best
07:59last outs in the field won that grade two Lake Placid States of Saratoga going
08:02long she's a closer I like her rounding out the field
08:07Candela the French bread another very classy individual that comes into
08:12the U.S. for the first time I get a tougher read on her though I
08:15think I prefer Soprano of the two uh imports Alexa any thoughts on the
08:19outside runner I agree if I'm gonna pick a Euro I would
08:23pick Soprano in this race well let's round things out here with our
08:26selections uh Alexa I'm gonna throw the four on top as
08:29just kind of a sharp horse in good form and
08:31it looks like you're looking for some value in here too as well
08:35yeah I'm going Chad Brown exact in here with Grayosh and over
08:39over subscribed