How might Israel respond to Iran's missile attack?
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00:00Well, the region, the world, waiting for Israel's response following Iran's massive missile
00:04attack earlier this month.
00:07For more, we can speak to Lancaster University's Simon Maben.
00:10Hello to you, Simon.
00:13Why now?
00:14More than a week after Iran's attack, why has Israel not struck back?
00:18Well, that's the million-dollar question, I guess.
00:22We hear officials from Israel, from the United States and elsewhere saying that Israel is
00:26waiting to pick the right time to attack, is waiting to make sure that it hits the right
00:31types of targets at the right time, at the time of their choosing.
00:36And of course, this all just contributes to a wider sense of fear that many across the
00:40region are having right now, and especially those in Iran, fearful that an attack from
00:46Israel will come, not knowing where and when.
00:49And it creates this horrible climate of anxiety, uncertainty.
00:55And all the while, they're seeing images of destruction from Gaza, from Lebanon and
01:00from beyond.
01:01And it's a really precarious moment right now.
01:04Yeah, you say choosing the right targets.
01:07What options are on the table?
01:09Well, I guess that depends who you ask.
01:12For the Israelis, perhaps all of the options are on the table, which would include the
01:15nuclear sites, which would include oil and gas refineries, infrastructure, the political
01:23elite of the Islamic Republic, military targets.
01:27We just don't know what the calculations are from Mr. Netanyahu and others in Israel.
01:34But we do know that the United States is putting pressure on Israel not to hit nuclear targets,
01:40probably not to hit oil and gas targets for fears about the reverberations.
01:44We know that states across the Persian Gulf, Arab states, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar
01:50and others are saying do not hit nuclear sites, do not hit oil and gas sites for fear
01:56of what would then happen.
01:58There have long been rumors that if Iranian oil and gas targets are hit, then Iran will
02:03reciprocate across oil and gas targets across the Gulf region.
02:09The reverberations of that for security and for the global economy would be huge.
02:13So I guess it all boils down to what Mr. Netanyahu thinks the right approach is.
02:18And if Mr. Biden has got the ability and indeed the inclination to put pressure on
02:24him to stop escalating things further.
02:26But all these concerns about caution, is any of that coming up between Netanyahu and his
02:31war cabinet?
02:33Israeli watchers say that the war cabinet, more gung ho than the prime minister.
02:37Yeah, well, we know that his war cabinet is comprised of people with a very serious ideological
02:43bent.
02:44We know that there is a serious ideological vision at the heart of this war cabinet.
02:51And weirdly, given what has happened over the past year, it may be that Mr. Netanyahu
02:55is the more pragmatic figure in that war cabinet, which is a deeply concerning thing to say
03:02in light of the catastrophic death toll that has been inflicted over the past year.
03:07So there is that.
03:08But then there's also growing pressure from the West, from the international community.
03:15There are concerns about escalation.
03:17And so he is ultimately the prime minister and is able to take these decisions should
03:22he wish.
03:23Concerns about escalation.
03:24In the meantime, what is Iran doing?
03:26How is it preparing, anticipating an Israeli response?
03:29Well, it's trying to position itself as saying, look, we are still a valid, a live player
03:36in regional politics, despite the broader sort of PR strategic battle that's been fought.
03:43It was hit badly by the loss of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, and by a number of
03:50other prominent figures associated with the Islamic Republic, or indeed part of the Islamic
03:55Republic's security infrastructure being killed.
03:58So what it's trying to do now is posture, say, look, we still have this deterrent capability.
04:03We are not giving up on our, quote unquote, resistance capabilities and credentials.
04:09So senior Iranian officials are flying out to Beirut.
04:12They're visiting Dahiya.
04:13They're showing that they are still there for their allies, Hezbollah, Hamas, and others.
04:19And they're trying to say, we are still live.
04:21We are still in this.
04:22We are not just going to be subsumed in the machinations of regional and global politics.
04:29But it's a posture.
04:30It's a big posture in here.
04:31And Iran is in a very difficult position.
04:33Yeah, this Sunday, Iran's foreign minister said the country has no red lines when it
04:38comes to defending its people or its interests.
04:41Is that posture?
04:42Is that a threat?
04:44That's posturing.
04:45Of course, it's posturing.
04:46The Islamic Republic has a very clear ideological bent.
04:49Of course, it does by virtue of the system of government that is in operation.
04:54But it is also a pragmatic state.
04:56We've seen that time and time again.
04:58We've seen it with the normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia in 2023, which feels like
05:04a long, long time ago.
05:05We know that Iran is in a difficult position economically, socially, politically.
05:11And so ultimately, the Islamic Republic wants to survive.
05:15It's trying to find a way that will allow it to survive in the face of this huge pressure
05:19from Israel, this huge global pressure on it.
05:23But it is a pragmatic state underneath the posture, underneath the bluster.
05:28We have to remember that.
05:30And I think that's the only thing that can give us a little bit of solace that some type
05:34of diplomatic resolution can be found here.
05:37Yeah.
05:38Well, Israel not listening to the U.S.'s concerns, Israel calling the U.N. Secretary General
05:43Persona Non Grata, reiterating that again.
05:46So what does need to happen for there to be a breakthrough in terms of a diplomatic breakthrough?
05:52Well, I've been asked this question a lot.
05:54And sadly, if I had the answer, I would be either incredibly wealthy or have a Nobel
05:58Prize.
05:59And unfortunately, I have neither.
06:01There are things afoot.
06:03There are people working incredibly hard, people much, much smarter than me, working
06:07hard, working back channels, trying to find ways of getting the Israeli war cabinet and
06:13the Israeli political elite to realize that this is not actually in their interests for
06:18a wider escalation.
06:20The problem is there are some in that war cabinet who think that escalation to de-escalate,
06:26which is a very strange phrase that's being used time and time again.
06:31There's a view that that is the way out of this for Israel in the longer term.
06:34Unfortunately, I think that is a huge strategic mistake for Israel.
06:39And more importantly, it is a devastating thing for the people of the region, as we're
06:44seeing in Gaza, as we're seeing in Lebanon, as we've seen time and time again in Iraq,
06:50in Syria, in Yemen.
06:52Bombing is not the way out of this.
06:54Military action is not the way to create peace.
06:57The brief lull that we saw this weekend is over after the Jewish holiday Yom Kippur has
07:02passed.
07:03Do you think the Israeli response is imminent?
07:06I would imagine it's coming in the next few days, if not sooner.
07:11The thought would be if there isn't a quick response, then there would be a sense of uncertainty,
07:20of anxiety within that war cabinet.
07:23And that would not be acceptable, I don't think, to Mr. Netanyahu and others.
07:28So I would imagine it will come at some point.
07:31There are rumors on X right now that it is imminent.
07:35But we've heard all of this before.
07:37I guess it's about how the whole episode is framed by the Israelis, how they justify
07:45what is happening, and when it happens, more importantly, that they will be concerned about.
07:49Simon, thank you very much.
07:50Simon Maben from Lancaster University, thank you.