政局稳定令吉回弹 2025是落实改革的预算案?
八点最热报 | 2025年财政预算案将在10月18号提呈，早前首相兼财政部长安华放话，会在这次的财案里引入更多对经济结构的改进，以确保国际经济增长能公平地惠及人民，所谓的经历结构改进又会不会引起阵痛呢？两位受访的资深财经分析师都认为，在团结政府上台两年站稳脚跟后，2025年财政预算案将会是个改革和转型的预算案。（主播：萧慧敏）
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00:30Before watching the video, let me remind you that there is more content on the Hotpoint website.
01:00Cai Zhaoyuan, Director of Taxation and Financial Consultation at Jiaqi Financial Center, pointed out that
01:03the best time for the government to push for reform is when the current political situation is stable and the economic growth of the country is beyond expectations.
01:13Therefore, the TPP government will undoubtedly implement some reform plans in the fiscal budget.
01:21I think this budget will be a reform-type budget.
01:26After the TPP government took office for two years, I think it is now in a very good position to push for various reforms.
01:37The main thing is that the current political situation is very stable, and the TPP government has won in the past several elections.
01:45In addition, our GDP has exceeded expectations in both the first and second seasons.
01:52In addition, we all know that the TPP government has made a strong rebound, and the stock market is also doing well.
01:58So in this situation, I think the TPP government basically has no concerns about the consequences,
02:04to promote or accelerate the reform of the entire country.
02:09Cai Zhaoyuan, Director of Taxation and Financial Consultation at Jiaqi Financial Center, pointed out during an interview with 8.42,
02:15that now is the best time for the TPP government to reform, and the government will not have too many concerns about the consequences.
02:21Because even if there is a shock in the process of reform,
02:24at least the government's rebound will not be so great when the geographical and humanitarian conditions are met.
02:29Of course, in the process of reform, there will definitely be the so-called shock.
02:36Because basically, I think a lot of reforms, including financial reforms,
02:42the so-called monetary rationalization, will bring shock to the people or the business.
02:51At the same time, when you want to improve the people's income in the short term,
02:55you can do these so-called improvements, such as the minimum wage, which will bring shock to the business.
03:02So I think in the absence of concerns about the consequences,
03:05this fiscal reform will be a reform-style budget.
03:09Cai Zhaoyuan believes that the fiscal budget for 2025 is a reform-style budget.
03:14Zhang Guolin, the founder of New Capital Investment, also believes that this will be a budget to accelerate the transition of China.
03:20He pointed out that the government has been actively recruiting private investors in the past two years.
03:23The government can really start implementing China's transition plan while foreign capital comes in.
03:29The theme is national prosperity, people's happiness.
03:33And in the past two years, there have been a lot of direct foreign and local investments.
03:40So I think it's a time of transformation.
03:43So I think he should pay attention to two things.
03:46That is, while this is going to be transformed, foreign capital will come in, and the market will be stable.
03:51So there should be some policies on how to encourage the higher-level industries,
03:56how to encourage and train talents.
03:59Because after all, talents are still very short, especially high-tech talents.
04:04Whether the country's economy is going to be transformed or reformed,
04:06both interviewees believe that the most urgent thing is the monetary policy that has been implemented.
04:12Will the government implement the monetary policy of RON95 gas in this fiscal budget?
04:19Zhang Guolin and Cai Zhaoyuan both believe that reducing the RON95 gas subsidy is a must.
04:25Because only this subsidy has already cost RM24.5 billion.
04:29If it can save half or at least RM100 billion,
04:32then naturally it can reduce the country's spending and deficit.
04:36I believe that gas subsidies will be implemented.
04:38But it should be gradual.
04:39It's impossible to get rid of it all at once.
04:42It may be gradual.
04:43Then someone will find a way to subsidize those who need help.
04:47Because after all, our fiscal policy is still very high,
04:50and there are many different types of operating expenses.
04:53You see, you usually have to balance it.
04:55The salary of civil servants is too low.
04:57So this time, he adjusted it from 7% to 15%.
05:00Where does this money come from?
05:01First, it may be from reducing the subsidy.
05:05So we should reduce the gas subsidy.
05:08Food, especially the gas subsidy.
05:11I think gas is a big part.
05:13So the question is, how can the country reduce it?
05:16I think they will promote a so-called
05:19road map of re-settlement in the fiscal policy.
05:24Let the people and businesses have better and more time
05:29to prepare for more re-settlement.
05:32So generally speaking,
05:33the real flight date should be in the first and second quarter of next year.
05:38Cai Zhaoyuan believes that the so-called open-source flow
05:40while trying to increase the income of our national treasury,
05:43reducing expenses is also an important part.
05:46Therefore, in addition to announcing a road map of re-settlement
05:49in the fiscal budget for next year,
05:52the government expects that the subsidy re-settlement policy
05:54should also be expanded to other areas.
05:56I think the whole re-settlement policy
05:58is not just about RON95.
06:00Basically, it will be all the financial services.
06:04Now that there is a subsidy,
06:06I think the government will try to adjust it.
06:09As mentioned before,
06:11if there is a sufficient supply of eggs,
06:15basically we can make it return to the market.
06:19So from this point,
06:20we return the chicken to the market,
06:22the government can save 1.2 billion RMB.
06:26Basically, I think these are feasible.
06:29Including other materials, oil, salt, sugar, rice,
06:33these are all covered by the government's road map
06:38in the entire re-settlement policy.
06:43Cai Zhaoyuan pointed out that
06:44although the fiscal budget for each year
06:45hopes to be able to do open-source flow,
06:48but if we want to increase the income of 100 billion,
06:50it is basically quite difficult.
06:52But if we can re-settlement the subsidy,
06:54it is easier for him to save 100 billion.
06:58Then at the same time,
06:59how to make every penny worth it
07:02without corruption and abuse,
07:04this is also something that the government must pay attention to.
07:07In this fiscal budget,
07:08what new taxes may be added?
07:11This will be the topic of tomorrow's report.