Week Ahead – Staying unsettled? 12/08/19
Following the wind and rain many places experienced during the weekend, will the weather remain unsettled this week? Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern has the forecast.
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00:00Hello, and welcome to the Met Office forecast for the week ahead. It might be August, but
00:05it's going to feel more like autumn at times this week. Once again, it's a week in which
00:10we'll see showers at times, followed by bouts of wet weather, followed by further showers,
00:16and it will always be on the cool side. Now, not everyone likes the heat, but if you don't
00:21appreciate this kind of weather when you are on your summer holidays, for example, and
00:26you're fed up with the rainfall, don't blame me, blame the jet stream. That fast-flowing
00:30current of air high in the sky is currently to the south of the UK, allowing cool air
00:36in from the north, a similar pattern to recent August, it has to be said. And that jet stream,
00:42it's going to act like a conveyor belt, carrying in low pressure after low pressure through
00:47the next few days. The jet stream moving in from the Atlantic and picking up these areas
00:52of low pressure, developing them and bringing spells of rain, and at times, strengthening
00:58winds. This is Saturday's weather chart, and you can see low pressure centred over the
01:04UK. Still some question marks about this low, which I'll go into more in a moment, but certainly
01:10it does look like the cool, changeable weather is here to stay. A cool start to Tuesday,
01:14but don't despair, because over the next few days there will be some sunshine in between
01:18the showers, and you can see plenty of sunshine for eastern Britain at first on Tuesday, followed
01:23by showers developing, and then after a showery start in the west, the weather settles down.
01:28Wales in the south-west sees drier and brighter conditions by the end of the afternoon. Showers
01:34never too far away in most places though, and it will stay on the cool side, typically
01:3818 to 21 Celsius. However, there will be some sunshine on Tuesday, less so on Wednesday
01:47because this feature will move in from the south-west for Wednesday itself, and the start
01:52of Wednesday looks very unsettled for Wales and the south-west of England in particular.
01:57Strengthening winds, very wet weather for south Wales and the south-west of England
02:00at first, gales then developing across English Channel coasts, and the wet weather moving
02:04its way north-eastwards across the country, arriving eventually into north-east Scotland.
02:08After a chilly but bright start here, further west, it's going to be a bit more humid by
02:14the afternoon, and that humidity could spark some heavy, lively showers, particularly for
02:19say northern England. So all in all, an unsettled day on Wednesday, more rainfall to come in
02:24those areas that have seen plenty of it recently. But that low pressure does move away before
02:31the next low pressure makes an appearance further west. In between, at least on Thursday,
02:36a ridge of high pressure starts to build in, promising, well, something a little calmer,
02:41at least in some areas, for a day or so. Has to be said though, it will take some time
02:46for the showers across central and eastern Britain to die away on Thursday. Further west,
02:51that's where the brightest and driest weather will be on Thursday itself. Northern Ireland,
02:55western Scotland, Wales and the south-west, drying up, sunshine coming through, feeling
03:00pleasant enough, albeit with a fairly brisk breeze for southern parts of Britain. That's
03:06Thursday. Into Friday, however, well, the weather certainly will start to feel much
03:11more autumnal again. This depression coming along, it does look like something you'd more
03:18expect through September and October, but it's a reasonably straightforward feature
03:22in terms of predicting it. It's just a mature depression. It's gone through its deepening
03:28phase and it brings a spell of rain, and then strengthening winds for Friday. And that means
03:34it's a wet start to the day for Scotland, Northern Ireland, western parts of England
03:38and Wales, and you can see these brighter colours then moving into south Wales, south-west
03:42England, bringing some heavy rainfall once again here. Strengthening winds as well, and
03:47after a dry, bright start in the east, it turns wet towards the end of the day. Showers
03:51following on from the heavy rain further west. So an unsettled day to come on Friday. It's
03:57not going to be particularly pleasant if you're on your holidays, for example, but it's fairly
04:01straightforward to predict meteorologically. However, later Friday and into the weekend,
04:07that's when it becomes more uncertain. It certainly looks likely that this area of low
04:12pressure is going to dominate things through the weekend, after the heavy rain on Friday
04:17moves through, and the low pressure sticks around through Saturday and Sunday. However,
04:23this feature, a little fly in the ointment, adds some uncertainty for the weekend itself
04:28because some computer models want to push this feature, which is an area of heavy rain
04:33into northern France. Other computer models want to push it into England and Wales, and
04:38it's that which leads to some question marks in terms of our weather for the weekend. We're
04:45certainly likely to have this low pressure over northern Britain, but if this area of
04:48heavy rain moves northwards and engages with the jet stream and combines with this low,
04:54it could be very wet and windy indeed, especially across parts of England and Wales for the
04:59first half of the weekend. But what looks more likely to happen is the heavy rain will
05:04stay south, affect mainly northern France, and that for the UK itself, we'll see cool
05:10conditions remaining, blustery showers, but also some sunny spells in between the showers,
05:16and the weather not quite as bad as it was last weekend. Bear in mind, though, this is
05:21a few days away, and there is that low risk that it will be very wet and windy if that
05:26feature moves northwards. Instead of hitting northern France, it will hit England and Wales.
05:32So plenty to look out for over the next few days, plenty to stay up to date with over
05:37the next few days, and we will, of course, keep you updated right here at the Met Office.