High pressure will dominate our weather into next week. That’ll bring plenty of dry and bright weather but northerly winds will also make for a cooler feel by day and night
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00:00Hello. Welcome to your latest Met Office 10-day trend, a 10-day trend that takes us just beyond
00:06the autumn equinox. So with the nights approaching 12 hours long, there's plenty of time for
00:10things to cool off and chilly mornings will definitely be a feature of the weather as
00:15we go through the weekend. And for the next few days, this area of high pressure will
00:19be a big feature of the weather. It's going to dominate, pushing away this weather front,
00:24pushing up against this other area of low pressure. And as those two squeeze together,
00:29the isobars pinch together as well. That means the winds will be picking up, especially
00:34so on Friday. But the high eventually winds out and this area of high pressure will dominate
00:39for the next five or six days, at least, bringing a lot of dry and fine weather with sunny spells
00:45by day. Let's just rewind the clock, however, because as this high pushes up against this
00:51low pressure, as I said, it's going to squeeze the isobars together, which will generate
00:55an ever-strengthening northerly wind. Now, that is going to bring cooler conditions
01:00for all, both by day and by night, and particularly noticeable along some of these eastern coasts
01:07as that wind really starts to strengthen through Thursday and Friday. Beyond that, the high
01:13pressure moving in should finally make those winds ease off a little bit across the east
01:18and so introducing slightly milder air, perhaps as we go through Sunday and more likely as
01:24we go into next week. So certainly turning chillier over the next few days. Temperatures
01:29by day of late in the south have been into the mid-20s. By Thursday, still into the low
01:3520s here. But for many northern areas, we're only looking at the mid-teens. And again,
01:40out on that wind and it really will feel quite chilly on Thursday, but perhaps even more
01:44noticeable on Friday, by which time we're struggling to get much above 18 Celsius in
01:49the south. Many places across the north barely getting into the teens. And again, that wind
01:53even more noticeable on Friday. Quite a lot of cloud in the east with a few showers likely
01:58too. And add on that wind, it will feel like temperatures are in single figure. So that's
02:04pretty noticeable certainly compared to what we've seen of late. So a big chill by day
02:09and as I mentioned, by night, particularly as those winds ease off a little through the
02:13weekend. Nighttime temperatures in urban areas down into single figures. And so in rural
02:19spots, we will be well down into single figures. Really quite cold starts on Saturday and perhaps
02:26Sunday morning as well. So yes, turning chillier over the next few days and nights, but certainly
02:32for the next several days, a lot of dry weather around. There will be some showers, particularly
02:36across northern Scotland and also along the east coast of both Scotland and England as
02:41those winds pick up during Thursday and Friday. And that cooler feel for all of us. What happens
02:48beyond the weekends? Well, high pressure will still control things during Sunday and
02:55into Monday as well. And as it builds in more, those easterly winds will finally start to
03:00ease off by the time we head to Monday. So at the moment, Monday looks dry with sunny
03:05spells for much of the UK, albeit with a bit of a chilly start. Notice there are weather
03:10fronts just trying to push in from the northwest, perhaps introducing a bit more cloud and maybe
03:15even a little bit of drizzly rain in the far northwest on Monday. And that's the biggest
03:19question mark as we go through the early part of next week, just how quickly these weather
03:24fronts will start to topple in with high pressure holding on. Certainly, it looks like across
03:29much of the south of the country. And that's the general pattern as we go through next
03:34week. As I said, the big question mark is how fast these weather fronts do push in.
03:38This is the European model for next Thursday, the most recent run. You can see the UK is
03:43here and these dots, that's precipitation, rainfall from that weather front. And you
03:50can see from this European model run, the most recent model run, that even by next Thursday,
03:54those weather fronts haven't made much progress, just bringing some outbreaks of rain across
03:59Western Scotland and Northern Ireland. But compare that to the previous model run and
04:05that had that weather front toppling much further south, sitting across parts of England
04:10and Wales. So, a very different look. Again, this is the next Thursday and this is just
04:15one computer model run, but quite a bit of uncertainty there. What we tend to do with
04:20these longer range forecasts is look at more probabilistic weather forecasts, run the model
04:25many, many times. And that gives a flavour of what the weather is more likely to be.
04:30And this is the pressure trend through next week, where red is high pressure, previous
04:36model runs down the side there and the dates going forward across the top. And what this
04:42is suggesting is that it's much more likely that the high pressure will hold on with more
04:47reds on the chart deep into next week. So, that indicates that, as I say, high pressure
04:52is more likely to be the dominant feature through next week. And those weather fronts
04:56are likely to be held further out west, more kept at bay. So, that means that the dry weather
05:02is likely to continue for much of the UK for most of next week. There will be some
05:06rain on those weather fronts, just question marks about the timing as they push in from
05:11the northwest. It is going to turn chillier over the next few days and nights, as we've
05:15seen, but temperatures are likely to rise a little as we go through next week. But,
05:19of course, as we approach the equinox, those longer nights, an increasing chance at this
05:24time of year that we could see some thicker fog patches in the morning. As always, for
05:29day-to-day details, make sure you stay up-to-date with everything from the Met Office by following
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