10 Day trend – Will the heat return? 03/07/19
Much of the next 10 days promises dry weather with sunny spells. A return of the hot weather looks unlikely at this stage although the next couple of days will be pretty warm in the south.
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00:00Welcome to the Met Office 10 day
00:02trend. A 10 days that promises
00:04most places some fine summer
00:06weather. I don't think the weather is
00:08going to create too many headlines
00:10over the next 10 days.
00:11And for us meteorologists,
00:13there's not a lot to get our teeth
00:15into. But as I said, for most, that
00:16just means there'll be some fine
00:18weather around. Not a lot of rain to
00:20talk about. Sunny spells for many
00:22and temperatures around about or a
00:24bit above average, certainly for the
00:26next couple of days before
00:28things turn a little cooler through
00:29the weekend. It's going to turn colder
00:32because of a cold front, which
00:34is slowly pushing towards the UK
00:36at the moment. High pressure, though,
00:37is the dominant feature, keeping
00:39things largely dry and pretty
00:42sunny through Thursday across the
00:44south. That weather front, though,
00:46does arrive in the far northwest
00:48and it's looking very wet across the
00:49Highlands and the Western Isles for
00:51most of Thursday.
00:52And we could see something called a
00:53standing wave set up, which means
00:55that parts of the east coast of
00:56Scotland will also see some
00:58persistent rain, but it will be
00:59heaviest in the west.
01:01For many, it's a dry day on Thursday
01:03and lots of sunshine across England
01:04and Wales means rising temperatures
01:07really quite warm across the
01:08southeast. Twenty six degrees is
01:09possible.
01:11A big contrast to where that rain
01:12is across the northwest, only 13
01:14Celsius here.
01:16And the temperature contrast could be
01:17even more marked on Friday because
01:20even warmer air is pushing up from
01:22the far south. Now, this is not the
01:23hot air that we had last
01:25week, but temperatures will be
01:27rising, whereas across Scotland,
01:29the green colours are pushing
01:31southwards. So it is turning cooler
01:33here through the course of Friday
01:35and that's because of a cold front.
01:36And if we run into the weekend, well,
01:38although the warmth tries to hang
01:40on in the far south into Saturday,
01:43it looks like the cooler air will
01:44push its way across pretty much all
01:46places by Sunday.
01:47That's because of, as I said, that
01:49cold front drifting southwards.
01:52Here it comes and it just pushes that
01:54hot air away.
01:55It's still in place across the far
01:56south on Saturday,
01:58but it does eventually get moved
02:00away by Sunday.
02:01However, the timing of this cold
02:03front, well, that is open to
02:05a little bit of doubt.
02:06I'm going to show you something now
02:07called a spaghetti chart.
02:09It's pretty obvious why it's called
02:11that. But what this is showing is
02:13possible positions of that
02:14cold front.
02:16We're running the computer model
02:17several times.
02:18This is the European model run
02:19several times, and each one of those
02:21blue lines represents a position
02:23of that cold front.
02:24And it does show quite a spread.
02:26The cold front could be still into
02:28southern Scotland at midday
02:30on Saturday.
02:31That's when this time is set.
02:33The most likely position is
02:35somewhere across South Wales or
02:36southern England.
02:37But there's quite a bit of
02:38uncertainty there.
02:39We call this quite a big spread in
02:40the position of that cold front,
02:42given that we're only talking about
02:43Saturday and this is recorded
02:45on Wednesday. So it's quite unusual
02:47for that amount of uncertainty
02:49this relative lead time.
02:51So, yes, the cold front is pushing
02:52south. But when it eventually
02:54arrives, well, that is a
02:56little bit open to doubt.
02:57But it's not going to make a huge
02:59deal of difference in terms of
03:00rainfall, because although it's got
03:01a bit of wet weather on it as it
03:03approaches the northwest through
03:04Thursday and Friday, as it sinks
03:06southwards, the rain looks like
03:07fizzling out.
03:08So most places will still
03:10say dry.
03:11In fact, the greatest threat of
03:12heavy rain over the weekend is
03:14the potential for some thundery
03:16showers across northern France,
03:17maybe affecting the Channel
03:19Isles. That's something to keep an
03:21eye on. But for most places, even
03:22as you run through the weekend into
03:23Sunday, notice there's not a lot of
03:25rain around.
03:26So by and large, yes,
03:28it will turn cooler through the
03:30weekend.
03:31But actually, most places will stay
03:33fine and dry and there'll be some
03:35sunny spells around.
03:37So that's the rest of this week.
03:38How about next week?
03:40Well, the rather benign
03:42weather looks like continuing for
03:44the first part of the week,
03:45certainly.
03:45We've got the Azores high, a
03:47semi-permanent area of high
03:48pressure over the Azores down here
03:50just extending up across
03:53the UK. And that high pressure will
03:54keep things largely dry through the
03:56early part of next week.
03:57Maybe weak weather fronts bringing
03:58some cloud and patchy rain
04:00into the west.
04:01The broader picture, again, shows
04:03nothing too exciting weather wise.
04:04Yes, there's a deepish area of low
04:06pressure just off newfound land.
04:08And that's getting driven by a
04:10reasonably active jet stream.
04:12But close to the UK, notice the jet
04:14stream, those winds high up in the
04:15atmosphere.
04:17Well, they're pretty feeble at
04:19the moment. They're a bit stronger
04:21across parts of Europe.
04:22But close to the UK, that
04:24weak jet stream.
04:25And it's the jet stream, of course,
04:26that drives our weather patterns
04:28because that's fairly weak.
04:29There's no strong signal for the
04:30weather patterns into next
04:32week. And that's shown quite nicely
04:34by this chart here
04:35across the top. That's the date
04:37going forwards.
04:38Red, suggesting
04:40more likely to see high pressure in
04:42control. And for the next couple of
04:43days, that's what we've got.
04:44This is the most recent run of the
04:46computer models.
04:47Notice that through Tuesday's
04:49computer models, after the high
04:51pressure clears, there's a stronger
04:53signal for the blue colours, the
04:54low pressure to be in control.
04:56But the more recent run of the
04:58computer models suggesting that
05:00actually that's a fairly weak
05:01signal. And as we've seen, even
05:03though it does move south, that
05:04cold front doesn't have much rain on
05:06it. And it's fairly bland,
05:08the signal, particularly the middle
05:09part of next week. The green colours
05:11there suggesting neither high
05:12pressure nor low pressure is
05:14more likely to be in charge.
05:16So don't worry too much about the
05:17numbers on this chart.
05:18But the main signal is that next
05:20week into the middle of next week,
05:22the computer models are not really
05:24showing strong signs one way
05:26or the other.
05:27What does that mean?
05:28Well, it means probably a
05:29continuation of the largely
05:30typical summer weather.
05:32And it means that the extremes are
05:34less likely.
05:35So we're unlikely to see
05:37temperatures really rising.
05:39We're unlikely to see vicious
05:41thunderstorms as a result.
05:43And we're unlikely to see prolonged
05:45spells of rain.
05:46We're much more likely to see fairly
05:48typical summer fair and the kind of
05:50weather we haven't seen much of so
05:52far through this summer.
05:55Now, as always, the 10 day trend is
05:56just a trend, a flavour of what could
05:58happen next week.
05:59For the very latest details,
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