Monday afternoon forecast 18/07/22
18 July - National weather forecast presented by Aidan McGivern.
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00:00Hello. Unprecedented, record-breaking heat is expected on Monday, Monday night and Tuesday.
00:07That's why there is a red warning for extreme heat. We've never recorded temperatures as
00:13high as they're likely to get during the next couple of days. And the most extreme temperatures
00:20and the biggest impacts are expected within this red warning area. That covers a large
00:25part of England and it covers a very populated part of England. 32 million people or around
00:30that level live in the red warning area and many more live in the amber warning area,
00:35southern Scotland into the rest of England and Wales where also extreme temperatures are expected
00:41and the associated health impacts and impacts to infrastructure. More on those in just a moment
00:47but let's take a look at how the rest of Monday will fare because there were some showers for
00:53southern parts of England and south Wales earlier and there will still be some medium level cloud
00:58around. Now, along the coast of the south of England, a cooling sea breeze and some additional
01:04cloud will prevent temperatures from being too extreme here. And for the north of Scotland,
01:10much cooler although obviously still above average. But for southern Scotland into northern
01:15Ireland, parts of northern England, temperatures into the high 20s, low 30s. And for the rest of
01:20England as well as Wales, those temperatures peaking into the mid to high 30s with a 50%
01:26chance that the UK all-time temperature record of 38.7 Celsius will be exceeded. But it's the
01:31widespread nature of this heat, mid to high 30s widely, which is likely to cause issues. And it's
01:39the fact that temperatures won't drop far overnight. Staying up in the 30s well into the evening
01:44after it's gotten dark, some cloud floating about overnight, some showers in the far northwest of
01:48Scotland. But otherwise, despite the clear spells for many, it's going to be quite breezy overnight.
01:54That will keep temperatures higher. And in some spots, particularly where there's a wind coming
01:58over the higher ground and then descending, it could be some truly exceptional temperatures
02:04recorded overnight in some places mid 20s or so. So the warmest night on record likely. And from
02:11that high base on Tuesday, temperatures will shoot up during the morning. Not only we've got that
02:16strong sunshine and the high initial temperatures, but the heat is intensifying and building as it
02:21pushes north ahead of this weather front that's bringing showers to southwest England and Wales.
02:26So the focus for the heat on Tuesday afternoon into southeast Scotland, much of northeast England
02:32and particularly central and eastern parts of England where temperatures will widely be up at
02:3838, 39 Celsius. That's widely. And in some spots, 40 or 41 Celsius, despite it being relatively breezy.
02:48That's going to feel a bit strange. Very, very high temperatures and a strong breeze. It's a dry heat
02:55as well. So watch out for that. But for the far southwest, for Northern Ireland, some relief
03:00temperatures are falling away through the day because we are seeing cooler air make inroads here.
03:06So the emphasis on extreme heat Monday and Tuesday, much higher than previous heat waves throughout
03:14history in the UK. And we know from previous heat waves the kinds of impacts this heat can cause to
03:19health, to infrastructure as well, and not just the health of vulnerable people, but to fit and healthy
03:26people. So the advice is to look after yourselves. Avoid exerting yourself during the heat of the day.
03:31Stay in the shade, stay hydrated and look out for others, particularly those who may be vulnerable
03:36to these kinds of temperatures. Of course, the high daytime temperatures and that lack of relief
03:41overnight. So those people who may be on their own, do check in on them. Now the heat finally
03:49relents later Tuesday. Some showers getting going as the temperatures rise across central and northern
03:54England. More so as Weatherfront pushes showers into central parts from the west through the
04:01evening. Also some showers and rain in the north of Scotland. But these showers, they're carried on
04:07a cold front and a significant drop in temperatures Tuesday night into Wednesday. The heat gets
04:13shunted to the east of the UK and then much more manageable heat for the rest of the week. Still
04:19above average, I think, a mixture of sunny spells and showers for many. But yeah, the focus is on
04:24the extreme heat of the next couple of days and we'll keep you updated on the forecast, on the
04:28warnings at the Met Office and you can follow all the health advice through various government pages.