Met Office Thursday Afternoon Weather Forecast 05/09/2024
05 September - National Weather Forecast presented by Aidan McGivern
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00Hi there, stark contrasts across the UK during the next few days with some very wet weather
00:07in some places and some very warm weather in others. And it's north-western parts of
00:12the UK where summer has been missing from action during the last two months basically,
00:18where we're going to see the warmest and sunniest weather, whilst it's southern parts where
00:23we'll see the wettest weather. What's happening? Well, basically the jet stream has extended
00:27so far south that it's cut off its own circulation and this circulation contains an area of low
00:32pressure that's going to sit over France. When this happens, the main flow of the jet
00:36stream is unable to move along these cut-off lows and they tend to stay in the same place
00:43for day after day. As a result, we see a lot of the same weather in the same places. That
00:50means that in some parts of the UK we're going to see a lot of rain accumulating and although
00:55there will be some damp weather in the east on an easterly wind, it's essentially towards
01:01the south of Wales and the south of England where we'll see the largest rainfall accumulation.
01:05So, this is the 48-hour rainfall accumulation throughout Thursday and Friday and as you
01:10can see, widely 25 to 50 millimetres of rainfall. But in some spots, for example, across parts
01:18of Devon, Somerset, South Wales, for example, into Hampshire, there is the risk of 100 millimetres
01:26or more through Thursday and Friday. So, rain warnings in force. Check the latest on those
01:31via the Met Office app and website. But the rain has already set in across the south and
01:37south-west and it's essentially turning heavier and more persistent heading into Thursday
01:41afternoon. It mostly stays to the south of the M4 corridor. North of that, we do have
01:47a lot of cloud, especially for north-eastern parts of the UK and some drizzle on that low
01:52cloud as it arrives from the east. This easterly wind, it's not a cold easterly by any stretch
01:57of the imagination. It contains a lot of humid air that's been drawn up across much of the
02:02UK from central Europe. As a result, when it hits the land, it results in a lot of low
02:09cloud mistiness around the coasts and hills of north-east England, south-east Scotland.
02:14But that cloud then gets broken up so that brighter skies are expected across parts of
02:18north Wales, north-west England, west of Scotland and Northern Ireland, and temperatures rising
02:22here during the next few days. High teens, low 20s expected on Thursday afternoon, whilst
02:28those temperatures will be seriously suppressed across the south and south-west, mid-teens
02:33more likely, where the rain is persistent and heavy at times. That rain will come and
02:38go through the evening and overnight. It does ease off for a time after dark across the
02:42south and south-west, although it stays drizzled with a lot of cloud. And again, we continue
02:46to see this mist, fret, har affecting the north sea coast of north-eastern UK. But there
02:53will be some clear skies around, perhaps across east Anglia, Lincolnshire, as well as western
02:58Scotland and Northern Ireland, north-west England overnight. Nevertheless, because of
03:02this humid airflow, even if you've got the clear skies, it's not going to be a chilly
03:05night. In fact, it's going to be a particularly muggy night with temperatures well above the
03:10seasonal average, 16, 17, 18 Celsius, a muggy one for sleeping. Then we start off Friday.
03:17Many places dry first thing, but once again, the showery rain starts going through the
03:22morning and there will be some heavy downpours and that rain consolidating once more into
03:28this area of persistent and at times heavy, perhaps even thundery rain. The thunderstorms
03:34most likely early in the day actually on Friday, by the afternoon, it's this narrow band of
03:39heavy rain that's likely to run along the south coast of England. It does ease off around
03:45the M4 into south Wales, some sunshine coming through here. Actually, plenty of sunshine
03:51across much of the rest of the UK, Scotland, Northern Ireland, northern England, parts
03:55of Wales and east Anglia. Just that area of low cloud coming and going across the north
04:01sea coast, some mist, some drizzle at times here. Feeling cool because of that low cloud,
04:07inland where we do get some sunshine, a marked contrast, mid to high 20s in places. You could
04:13see 27 Celsius, for example, across parts of Cambridgeshire and north-west Scotland.
04:18If we get 27 Celsius, 26 or 27 most likely numbers, then it will be the warmest day of
04:24the year so far for western Scotland. Quite a remarkable turn of events compared with
04:30the summer and beautiful weather to come across north-west England, north Wales, northern
04:36Ireland compared with how we've seen things during the last few months.
04:41But that rain continues to go across the south and you can see how that leads to below average
04:47temperatures. The blues coming along there for south Devon and Cornwall. This is the
04:51temperature difference compared with the month's average maximum temperatures. As you can see,
04:57there's this sharp gradient around the M4 corridor northwards where it's significantly
05:02above average. Any small adjustments in the position of the cloud and rain of course will
05:07make a big difference to the feel of the day in this zone where you've either got the cloud
05:12and the heavy rain or just a bit further north, you've got some humid air but also some very
05:18warm sunshine coming through north-eastern parts, of course limited by that low cloud
05:23which will tend to creep inland for some overnight into Friday night. Actually, it becomes increasingly
05:29cloudy on Friday night with the rain in the south, that narrow but heavy band of rain
05:34pushing north once again into south Wales. So, stay up to date with the warnings for
05:39rain. They may be tweaked over the next couple of days. There is the risk of transport disruption,
05:44some of the heaviest rain coming through at the rush hour both on Thursday evening and
05:49into Friday morning and Friday afternoon, and the risk of river flooding and surface
05:54water flooding. But it's the south and southwest where the heaviest rain will affect. Many
05:59other places are going to see some very warm and at times sunny weather. Big contrasts
06:04over the next few days and then all change again into next week. You can find the latest
06:08on that in the 10-Day Trend which is on our YouTube channel. Bye-bye.