AccuWeather's Winter Forecast
After the United States' warmest winter, how will this year's winter match up? AccuWeather Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok shares AccuWeather's Winter Forecast
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00:00All right, well, as the temperatures dip this fall closer to the cold of winter, we want to make sure you're prepared with the accurate winter forecast.
00:08The long-range expert meteorologist Paul Pastelok joins us to discuss.
00:13Paul, I don't even know what your favorite season is.
00:16My favorite season? It's fall, but unfortunately that's my busiest season as far as work goes.
00:22So it's hard to, you know, enjoy it. But at the same time, I'm putting the winter forecast together, which is exciting.
00:30And the timing can't be perfect seeing the scenes that we're seeing out there in upstate New York right now.
00:35Yeah, we've got a great producer, Barry. Thanks so much for that.
00:38All right, Paul, last winter was the warmest ever in the U.S.
00:41So how will the upcoming winter season compare and differ to the last?
00:45Well, I don't think it's going to be overall a cold winter season.
00:49It's going to be a little bit similar to what we saw last year, but not the same.
00:52There'll be some changes. Not every winter is generally the same.
00:55But it looks like we're going to have some breaks, some surges of cold that will break up some of the warmer periods that we have.
01:04But the warmth will probably outdo the cold in the end game.
01:08And you can see by this temperature map, much of the country from the southern plains to the Tennessee, Ohio Valley will end up being above average.
01:16And that's just basically because the storm track is going to be so far north most of the time and keeping that cold bottled up in the western U.S. or western Canada.
01:26Well, when people see a lot of orange on the map, maybe they think, ooh, my bills won't be too bad with the winter.
01:32But we know that there's going to be quite a heating demand.
01:34There is. And you're still going to see quite a bit of heating demand across the northern Rockies, across the north central states.
01:41But the rest of the area, you're going to get in periods where you're seeing less demand for energy from the southern plains to the Tennessee Valley.
01:48And especially if everything works out the way it is mid-season.
01:52Mid-season, we could see that big difference occurring with a lot of Pacific air coming across from the west.
01:59And what happens is that air downslopes into the plains and east and warms.
02:03And we could see a lot of that happening during the month of January.
02:07And if that's the case, your big cities like New York, Washington, down to Memphis and Houston, you're going to see an increase, actually a decrease in your demand for heating.
02:16Cities along the I-95 corridor saw well below average snowfall last winter.
02:22So, Paul, what can you tell us? Are we going to need the snowblowers this winter?
02:26Well, you know, when you have a lot of mild periods, it kind of puts a little damper as far as getting snow when storms come up.
02:33We saw that last December where there was a lot of rain events, in fact, flooding in parts of New England last year.
02:39This year, December looks a little bit different.
02:41We may get some activity here as far as snow goes late November into December.
02:46Based on northern branch systems coming out of the upper Midwest into the northeast, that kicks up the above average to start off the season.
02:53Then a little bit of a lull, and then it tries to come back toward the back end of the season.
02:58We'll have to watch a few things to see if everything comes together.
03:01But again, a northern type setup, which you get in a typical what we call La Nina season,
03:07generally brings above average snowfall to the north and below average to the south.
03:12Although this is a weak signal, things could change and things can be a little bit different.
03:17And that's what we're going to be watching very carefully this winter.
03:19All right. If I'm a skier, if I work at one of the resorts, what can you tell us about the ski season?
03:24Well, again, those lulls could bring times where we don't get accumulating snowfall, especially the southern ski areas.
03:31Also, those mixing events.
03:33When you get some mild Pacific air in, you can get ice, and that can cause some icy conditions.
03:37And that's going to be a problem in parts of the central southern Appalachians, also maybe the southern Rockies.
03:42But elsewhere, I think the northwest, the interior west, northern Rockies looks great.
03:47I think the upper Midwest could get into good snowpack early on in the season, and that sets the tone for the rest of the season.
03:54And the interior northeast should do well as well, as long as we can continue to get some snow,
03:59at least in the front end around the holidays and maybe at the back end of the winter season.
04:03All right, Paul, one more because you put so much science into this.
04:07So we're looking at the ocean temperature anomaly, three areas that you look at.
04:12Three areas to watch going through this winter season.
04:15Down across the south, there's the equator.
04:17That's where the La Nina begins.
04:19We continue to see the cooling going on in the ENSO region.
04:23If that connects with the upper levels of the atmosphere and sets the tone, we'll have more of a La Nina winter,
04:29and that gives us a chance to get some colder weather and some snow in the north.
04:33But risk, warm water north of Hawaii, south of Alaska, if that shifts a little farther to the east where that cool water is,
04:41that could actually result in higher pressure off the west coast.
04:45The west could turn drier.
04:47The east could get worse.
04:49We could have more snow.
04:50We saw this happen back in 2013-14 winter season.
04:53If that's the case, we could have a bigger season on our hands.
04:57But right now, that does not show that, and that's why we're going what we showed on the maps already.
05:02Literally predicting the future.
05:04AccuWeather lead, long-range expert Paul Pastalak, thanks again for joining us,
05:08and thank you, Saranac Lake, for providing this beautiful scene, this view courtesy of EarthKAM.