AccuWeather's lead long-range expert, Paul Pastelok, looks ahead to the upcoming winter season and the potential impacts of how El Niño can affect the forecast.
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00:00 October may have just started,
00:01 but it won't be long until the snow
00:03 starts flying for many of us.
00:06 Across the United States,
00:07 Accuweather's winter forecast is out
00:09 and El Nino is expected to play
00:11 a big role in our winter.
00:14 Alright,
00:14 joining me now this morning is Accuweather
00:16 lead wrong range expert Paul Passlock.
00:18 You know, Paul,
00:19 of course we know about El Nino.
00:21 It's the warming of the equatorial waters.
00:23 Instead of the equatorial waters
00:25 or the warmest water being in
00:27 the Western Pacific,
00:28 it's more in the Eastern Pacific.
00:31 Now that sounds well.
00:32 Why would the Eastern Pacific
00:34 influence our weather in North America?
00:36 But it's that tie in between
00:38 the oceans and the atmosphere.
00:39 Is that what you look at when you're
00:42 trying to do long range forecasting?
00:44 Yes, and that's been difficult this
00:46 year because we haven't seen what
00:48 we call coupling of the water
00:50 temperatures in the upper level
00:51 patterns so far here in the late
00:53 summer early fall season.
00:55 And now it's it's so still slow
00:57 getting its act together,
00:59 but I do feel it will come together.
01:01 And what it does is it actually
01:03 affects the storm tracks changes
01:05 where they're going to be during
01:06 the course of the season,
01:08 and that makes it a lot more complicated.
01:10 During El Nino we have a more
01:12 active Southern storm track.
01:13 During La Nina,
01:14 it's more than northern storm track,
01:15 and so we're looking for the Southern
01:17 storm track to take over this winter.
01:19 So I'll tell you what,
01:21 Paul,
01:21 let's take a look at the typical and
01:23 you know you and I know talked about
01:25 this not El Nino's or not every El
01:27 Nino is the same, but when we do have,
01:30 let's say a moderate to strong El Nino,
01:32 this is the pattern that we typically see.
01:34 Yeah,
01:34 because it is a stronger signal and so
01:36 the stronger the signal,
01:37 the more dominant that signal is going to be.
01:40 And so we are anticipating in our
01:42 forecast this year that the Southern
01:43 branch of the jet stream should be
01:45 active for California and also for
01:47 the Southeast it should be a wetter
01:48 season for them. The other one,
01:50 the other storm track going way to the
01:52 North that's going to allow milder air
01:54 to take over the middle of the country
01:56 and less snow for that matter as well.
01:58 So with this in mind, Paul,
01:59 let's let's talk about first
02:01 temperatures and snowfall will take
02:03 you from the Midwest toward the Northeast.
02:05 We begin with the temperatures and
02:07 this is a classic signal for an El Nino.
02:09 That is for much of the country.
02:12 Temperatures are run above normal.
02:13 Yes, they should run above normal.
02:15 If we don't have snowpack for much of
02:17 the time period during the course of
02:20 the winter season by default,
02:21 you're going to see probably above
02:23 normal temperatures in that area.
02:25 Also, you'll have more Pacific air
02:26 coming in underneath the jet stream,
02:28 which is so far North and that brings
02:31 in milder air during the winter season.
02:33 Nighttime low stay up.
02:34 That's why the middle of the country,
02:36 the Midwest especially,
02:37 should see above normal temperatures
02:39 coming up this season.
02:40 Let's talk about the snow forecast
02:42 to Paul cities like Chicago.
02:43 Cities like Minneapolis.
02:44 Remember Minneapolis a lot of snow last
02:47 year a different forecast or a different
02:49 winter this year. Yeah, the storm track
02:51 last year Bernie was pretty much
02:53 the same storm track last year.
02:55 Bernie was from the Southwest
02:57 all the way towards the Midwest.
02:59 We had several systems come up in
03:00 that direction and and snow fell
03:02 pretty hard at times in Minnesota
03:04 and Wisconsin and the Great Lakes area.
03:06 But this year it looks like it
03:08 could be the opposite scenario
03:09 with a southern storm track.
03:11 Most of your problems could be
03:12 across the Tennessee Valley,
03:14 parts of the interior Southeast,
03:15 and also the Gulf State region.
03:17 Rather than up north,
03:18 the frequency will be down this year,
03:20 and that's going to keep your
03:21 snow amounts down as well.
03:23 That southern storm tracking
03:24 becomes very tricky for the
03:25 Northeast because you have the
03:26 storms and moisture.
03:27 The question is,
03:28 do you have the cold air cold enough
03:30 for snow and that's the problem
03:32 for the first half of the season?
03:34 December could be wild.
03:35 It could be above normal.
03:36 We may have to wait until February,
03:38 early March for all the teleconnections
03:40 that we look at to come together,
03:42 and that's what we're big on right
03:43 now back end of the winter season.
03:45 Well, I'm only going to give you
03:47 30 seconds on this and it's a
03:49 complicated question here, California.
03:50 We had the rain last year El Nino.
03:53 We typically have heavy rain,
03:54 but you're looking at something here
03:56 in the water temperature anomalies
03:58 that are making you think well,
03:59 not so fast. I don't like that cooler
04:02 water southeast of Hawaii compared
04:03 to the norm that could drive the storm
04:06 track the southern storm track just
04:07 a little bit too far South.
04:09 It's the northern track that may come
04:11 into northern California for awhile,
04:13 but that southern track is
04:14 tough to say right now.
04:16 We have above normal precipitation
04:17 for Southern California forecasted,
04:18 but I'm a little bit concerned that
04:20 water temperatures could play a big
04:22 role in this winter season.