AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter monitors two tropical threats developing in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean. A tropical rainstorm is currently heading towards the Caribbean islands.
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00:00John, this is the time of year when we just want to hear it end, is it?
00:05Well, I know that is what we would all like at this point.
00:08But unfortunately, if you think about the hurricane season sort of in the timeline of a football game,
00:13we are making our way right through the third quarter here, about ready to head into the fourth quarter.
00:18And just like in a football game, lots of things can still happen in the fourth quarter.
00:22So we've got to continue to be vigilant here as we make our way through the next month and a half or so.
00:27You notice we start tailing down here as we head through the end of October into November,
00:32the historic average number of tropical storms, but still can have troubles, especially in the Caribbean.
00:38And that's one of the areas we're going to be monitoring.
00:41And here you can see on the water vapor imagery, there's a couple spots we're keeping an eye on with those shades of blue.
00:47That's correct. We're looking at a tropical rainstorm making its way through the Atlantic Ocean.
00:52And notice there's a lot of dry air. That's the yellows and oranges here.
00:56But the thunderstorms associated with it have been able to keep their own sort of pouch of moisture,
01:01and that's going to continue to move to the west.
01:03And this is going to bring some heavy rainfall to Puerto Rico and some of the other Caribbean islands here over the coming days.
01:09More on that in just a moment.
01:10The other area that we continue to watch, it's very broad still, not as well organized,
01:15but a cluster of showers and thunderstorms in this trouble spot in the Caribbean Sea.
01:20And there's still a risk that that may organize into a short-lived tropical storm, but it's not heading toward the United States.
01:26That's going to head toward parts of Belize and perhaps the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico as well.
01:32The U.S. here, the continental U.S., is protected from tropical trouble for now.
01:38And as we talk about tropical trouble, let's follow that system in the Atlantic,
01:42because we've been watching here that that is a tropical rainstorm.
01:46We're talking about that potential farther west, too, so there's a lot to cover here in the next few days.
01:52That's right. We'll be watching that tropical rainstorm,
01:54and we maintain this medium risk that we've had for days ahead of all other sources
01:58with regard to this heavy rain threat across parts of Central America as well.
02:03And there we can see the wind shear.
02:05Tell us a little bit about this with that tropical rainstorm.
02:08Well, the thing that we've been noticing about the rainstorm,
02:10it's going to continue to move to the west here north of the islands,
02:14but notice it's getting into an area with lighter wind shear with these colors of purple here.
02:21That means that it has a narrow window to perhaps strengthen into a tropical depression or a tropical storm.
02:27The impacts, though, will remain fairly similar, which is mainly a heavy rain threat.
02:32And as we follow that path then, that's why a little bit of that shear right now means it won't develop real quickly,
02:38but that window does occur. When does it occur, John?
02:41It's into the first part of the weekend, later Friday and through early Sunday,
02:47where we may end up with a short-lived tropical storm as the storm moves north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.
02:54Still, though, a heavy rain threat, and that's always a problem, Melissa, in the steep terrain of the Caribbean.
03:02This can result in mudslides and significant flash flooding.
03:05That's why we're concerned about these rain impacts, whether or not this organizes further or not.
03:10It's certainly hard for some of the infrastructure there in countries like Haiti, for example,
03:14that don't quite have what the U.S. builds to as far as coding.