Bobby Belts' "Below The Belt" discusses how Ezekiel Elliott is overpaid compared to other running backs that perform better than he does.
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00:00The Ezekiel Elliott signing was bad, but it it's so much worse than you probably would
00:08have guessed.
00:09Or maybe not.
00:10More on that in just a second.
00:11First Below the Belt is presented by a number one air.
00:14You know, we were talking about the Jets earlier, Chop, and how they're kind of a mess right
00:18now.
00:19They fired Robert Sala.
00:20That's one of the reasons, you know, all that turmoil that was there.
00:23That's one of the reasons that led to his firing.
00:25And they put Jeff Ulbrich in place.
00:27And I wanted to play this clip because I've been meaning to bring it out this week after.
00:33But I mentioned it last night when I was doing Cowboys crosstalk with Joe Looney was Jeff
00:37Ulbrich played in the NFL.
00:39He's now the interim head coach there for the Jets.
00:43And by all accounts, people love him.
00:45They're like, he's so awesome.
00:46He connects with players.
00:47He's great.
00:48He's a former player.
00:49He spent 10 years in the NFL play with the San Francisco 49ers, former third round pick.
00:54And this was a really cool clip, I thought, from Jeff Ulbrich last week, talking ahead
01:00of the game that they were about to play on Monday Night Football against the Bills.
01:04And he was asked about, hey, you know, you're coaching now.
01:07Yeah.
01:08Did you always or were you one of these players who always wanted to be a coach like you got
01:11in the game?
01:12You're like, man, as soon as I get out of the game, I want to coach.
01:14And he gave a what I thought was a fantastic answer about his evolution to become wanting
01:20to become a head coach.
01:21I thought it was a really cool story.
01:22I want to play it.
01:23Yeah, it was.
01:24It was really late in my career.
01:25I remember early in my career saying, why would I want to do that?
01:28You know, you'd look at coaches faces by the end of the week and be like, has he slept,
01:33you know?
01:34And I was like, that's craziness.
01:35And and later in my career, year seven or eight, wherever it was, we had we had drafted
01:40Patrick Willis and safe to say, I didn't beat him out.
01:47You know, so I became the backup.
01:48And in doing so, I spent a lot of time with them.
01:53And we watched a lot of tape together.
01:54We did a lot of extra on the field.
01:57And I still remember, it was just like yesterday, we're playing the Cardinals and I'm on the
02:01sideline looking on at that point in my career, I was a four course special teamer and the
02:07supporter of Patrick Willis is what I was and and probably the assistant coach to Patrick
02:11Willis.
02:12And I remember he makes a play in the Cardinals game and he snaps his eyes to me and I look
02:16at him and I was like, and it was something we had worked on and focused on that particular
02:20week.
02:22That felt better than any play I've ever made for myself, you know, and it was like, I'm
02:27hooked.
02:28I think that's awesome.
02:29Yeah, I got to say, I don't I don't like him.
02:34I was just doing some getting ready for the show.
02:36And Sarah said, oh, that's a daddy.
02:38Oh, I mean, yeah, he definitely looks like he's a good looking guy.
02:41He looks like he could be Sam Hartman's dad.
02:42He does. He really does.
02:43I look, I'll be honest with you, I was looking at some like old game photos that I don't
02:47think because he had a Mohawk.
02:50Oh, that's you don't have a Mohawk to become a head coach in the NFL.
02:53Typically, right. That's not typically the look they cultivate.
02:56I mean, Belichick may have had one.
02:58Yeah, I could see that.
02:59Right. You know, and there's the guys with reverse Mohawks.
03:02Sure. Right. Yeah.
03:03You do the wash around Washington haircut.
03:05But I mean, look, I you've mentioned this before.
03:09I do think the league is going to go to more player coaches and you just got to have but
03:14they can be their walk around coaches more often than not.
03:16A lot of times, I mean, some of it is based in Campbell's coaching position.
03:21Campbell isn't. But I mean, there are other guys who are.
03:22So I look at it this way.
03:25Think just right now without thinking very much about it.
03:28Chop, just start listing off to me the guys that you think of, like, man, that's a great
03:31coach to start. Listen up. The head coach is currently in the NFL.
03:34Start listening to just the guys you think really highly of across the NFL.
03:38Dan Campbell, Campbell, former player and former players.
03:41Oh, no, no, no. Just listen up.
03:43We're going to identify which was obviously Campbell Shanahan.
03:46Shanahan, college player, but not really wouldn't count.
03:48But I mean, Texas, they played in college.
03:52McDaniel did not.
03:54No, but I think really highly of him.
03:57Oh, I mean, I think really highly.
03:59Raheem Morris, former player.
04:01Kevin O'Connell, former player.
04:03D'Amico Ryan's about that.
04:05D'Amico Ryan's former player.
04:07People are drawn to Mayo.
04:08People think highly of him.
04:09People are loving to rub it.
04:11Things have gone sideways a little bit, but people were all in on Antonio Pierce at the
04:15end of last year. Former player.
04:16They were. I think what you're starting to see, Tomlin, like, yeah, like we like
04:19we see, you're starting to see players who are because we would see that in the past.
04:22Right. Dungy was a great head coach.
04:24Dungy was a former player.
04:25But it's a lot of times it felt like the guys who would become coaches
04:30and have success with it were role player careers.
04:33Maybe they spent a year or two or they were a special team for three years
04:36and then fell out of the league and got into coaching.
04:39D'Amico Ryan's was a legitimate player in the NFL.
04:42Oh, he's had a long career.
04:43Ulbrich, if Ulbrich hits, Ulbrich spent a decade in the NFL.
04:47I don't know that I remember him.
04:49That was a bad San Francisco team in the 2000s.
04:52And he was he was Jeff Garcia years.
04:54Yeah, I mean, he was he was on the 49ers the day that T.O. went to the star.
04:57He was out there at that game.
04:58He was I think he was starting for the 49ers at linebacker that day.
05:01So Jeff Ulbrich had a long career.
05:03D'Amico Ryan's like we talked about.
05:05Kevin O'Connell didn't have a storied career, but he was around the league
05:08for five years as a backup quarterback.
05:10Mayo was a really good player.
05:11So I do think an Antonio Pierce was I remember Antonio Pierce
05:14getting under my skin as a Cowboys fan growing up as a Giants fan.
05:18He used to just annoy the hell out of you.
05:21And so I do think that in the era of more of these,
05:25more of these NIL kids who, like we mentioned earlier today,
05:31when they become essentially
05:35some of these deals that a junior in high school is getting, not a lot of them,
05:39but the very top recruits, the very big names out there,
05:43like the biggest names that are out there, when those kids are getting money
05:47on top of the table, under the table, when they're getting money
05:49and they're living a certain lifestyle and they go to these programs
05:52and they're making like Matt Rule talking about a quarterback,
05:55quarterback making two million dollars every year he's at college.
05:58He may get to the NFL before he signed his rookie deal.
06:01You could be talking about a first round pick quarterback
06:03who's made seven, eight million dollars before they got to the NFL
06:06from high school and college.
06:08And that player walking into it naturally
06:12is probably going to have some entitlement. Sure.
06:15And I don't mean that about just a young player
06:17who's been given praise and lots of money.
06:21It's easy for anybody to get out of a college.
06:24You could be a college quarterback right now.
06:26Senior. Or let's say you're a senior, you got one more year left.
06:30So you're in your third year of NIL already. Yeah.
06:33And then next year, get drafted and you walk into an NFL locker room
06:36and there's a guy who was drafted in the sixth round.
06:39And it's been the league for four years.
06:40And you make more money.
06:41You've already had more money than them. Yeah.
06:42You got more money than a four year start of the NFL.
06:45Yeah. And I mean, like when you were a player, when you were.
06:48I don't know what his exact values.
06:50But I mean, he got a million at Ohio State
06:52and then he's been at Texas and had a bunch.
06:53And I bet Quinn yours is five million.
06:55I bet he's got plenty in the bank.
06:57And so the idea of, man, it's already going to be really difficult
07:01to reach these players in all likelihood, because it's like you have no idea.
07:06What experience I've been through or the kind of like
07:09people have been telling me I'm awesome.
07:10People have been willing to throw money at me for four years now.
07:13I think it's going to trend more and more towards.
07:16It's going to be really hard for them to listen to a Bill Belichick,
07:19who it's like, not only are you domineering and you're trying to tell me around.
07:23You didn't even have the success I did by the time I got to the league.
07:26I've been more successful already before I even got here.
07:29Then then your career was look at all the money I made, did this and that.
07:33And I think it's going to be easier if it's coming from Jeff Ulbricht
07:36or D'Amico Ryan's or one of these guys who went through an NFL career
07:39and made their money and can say, yeah, OK, you can't talk that to me, though.
07:43I'm telling you how you continue that success at this level.
07:46Right. I've done it. I've done it.
07:47And I think that's going to be an easier reach at the NFL level.
07:50And Belichick might be the one guy that can because he's I mean,
07:53nobody's done it more.
07:54But you're right. I still think it's more difficult because.
07:58There's going to be guys coming in the league that.
08:02We're like an eighth grade when they went when Bill last one.
08:05Oh, yeah. And I mean, Belichick, I don't I don't mean Belichick specifically.
08:08I just mean a Bill Belichick will be really difficult to establish,
08:11I think, into the future.
08:12All right. Ezekiel Elliott has is not played well.
08:16Chop, we know this.
08:17We know he can kill his team and carries every week.
08:20We know it's been it's been a little bit of a struggle.
08:22So I went through and I found the top 15 running backs
08:26that change teams this offseason as free agents.
08:29So this is by cap value, by their cap it.
08:34So I went and found the or by average salary
08:36when found the highest average salaries, the top 15 players
08:38that got paid this offseason at the running back position
08:40who changed teams, not resigned.
08:42And I went through and I just looked, OK, let's sort their average salary.
08:46Let's look at what their cap hit is.
08:48And then let's look at how effective they are.
08:49So out of these top 15, Ezekiel Elliott's cap
08:53it in twenty twenty four is the highest in the NFL.
08:59Now it's partially because it's a little bit of funny math.
09:02It's the six million dollar cap charge that was split from his release
09:07the previous year, and then it's the two million that he's owed this year.
09:10And so it's a eight million dollar cap charge on him, though, this year.
09:14And so some people say, well, they didn't choose to pin that.
09:17To me, I say they absolutely did because they didn't even entertain a pay cut.
09:21And if they and Ezekiel Elliott would have.
09:24And so they still cost themselves money.
09:25It was still something they chose to put on their books.
09:27So that's an eight million dollar player cap this year.
09:30That's how we're counting it.
09:30Good for Derek Henry.
09:31The next highest paid player in the NFL shop
09:36at the running back position of the top 15, his cap it this year is five point
09:39eight million, two point two million lower than Zeke.
09:43It's DeAndre Swift.
09:45Now, what's amazing to look at here is that, OK, Zeke, number one
09:50in the NFL out of these 15 running backs in terms of cap it.
09:53Let's look at how he does relative to raw numbers and analytics.
10:00So out of these 15 backs shop.
10:03Total rushing yards.
10:05Where do you think Ezekiel Elliott ranks in total rushing yard?
10:09Just among these highest 15 paid free agent running backs
10:12where he is the highest paid 15th.
10:15He is 13th out of 15 with 115 yards.
10:19He's just ahead of Gus Edwards and Cordero Patterson.
10:23Where do you think he stands in terms of rush yards per attempt?
10:26So not raw rush yards, just 15th.
10:28He is 15th out of 15.
10:31OK, well, let's there we go.
10:33Let's look at advanced analytics.
10:35We like those, don't we, chap?
10:36We do rush yards over expectation.
10:38That is the you're expected on every attempt.
10:41You're expected to get a certain amount of yards, give down distance,
10:44everything like that.
10:45They account for the the whole that they're given.
10:48Yeah, it does in a lot of them.
10:49So where does Ezekiel Elliott rank in terms of rush yards
10:54over expectation per attempt out of 15 running back 15th?
10:56He is 15th.
10:57By the way, you said his cap is what?
10:59Eight million dollars.
11:01You know, the Lions cap hit of David Montgomery
11:03and Jameer Gibbs combined is nine million.
11:07That sounds about right.
11:09EPA per play efficiency.
11:12Expected points added EPA per attempt out of 15 players.
11:15Where does out of these 15 running backs, where does Ezekiel?
11:18He's not 15th. He's 11.
11:20Oh, well, OK, so there you go.
11:22He's got it.
11:23Now, to your point about which would you prefer as a stat
11:26that tells you if that guy's playing well, rush yards over expectation or EPA?
11:30Oh, I would assume EPA.
11:34OK, EPA, let's go with the top ones there on EPA.
11:37Who's number one of the free agent running backs to change hands?
11:40Derek Henry. Derek Henry.
11:41Derek Henry's number one.
11:42His cap charge three million less than Ezekiel Elliott's.
11:45Number two, Austin Eckler.
11:47OK, Austin Eckler's hit is five million less than Ezekiel Elliott.
11:51Next one, Cordero Patterson. All right.
11:54His is six million less balls than Zeke.
11:56Aaron Jones couldn't pay Aaron Jones, could you?
11:59No, not a bit.
12:00Certainly needed to pay Zeke's cap charge four and a half million more
12:04than Aaron Jones, who's fourth among these 15.
12:06Me and Will Chambers are biggest fight.
12:08Our biggest fight was was Aaron Jones.
12:10Just absolutely ridiculous.
12:13But to your point, shop, when you look at the the list here,
12:17the lowest cap charges, the three lowest Cordero Patterson, Alex Madison,
12:21J.K. Dobbins, Antonio Gibson, some of these guys that are on the lower end
12:25largely are like near the top in terms of efficiency.
12:27Cool. Yeah, I love to see it.