"Somos el tercer país del mundo que más dólares tiene circulando en la economía informal. Transparentemos y vayamos a un sistema en el que los argentinos definan con qué quieren hacer sus compras diarias", opinó Martín Redrado.
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00:00The ex-president of the Central Bank, Revelado, how are you? Good evening, how are you?
00:07How are you, Maxi? Good evening, how are you?
00:09Good, well, thank you very much for attending us, as always, a pleasure.
00:13I wanted to talk a little bit about what you are seeing, how the economy is following, the economic plan,
00:18what are the strengths and, in any case, the uncertainties that lie ahead.
00:23But I would like an opinion of yours regarding this measure of dissolving the FIP
00:28and creating a new body with less staff and an important cut in salaries.
00:38Well, Maxi, those of us who know the State know that in each public distribution,
00:43both centralized and decentralized bodies of the central administration,
00:49there are many political positions and there are many layers, I call them geological layers,
00:55that have been set up government after government.
00:58That is, if you are looking for a more efficient, professional administration,
01:03that is depoliticized and that really seeks a fight against informality,
01:09Argentina needs to formalize workers, we have 50% of our economy that is in informality,
01:16well, welcome to these changes,
01:19that make an organization that is really working for a better tax administration
01:24and to be able to expand the tax base, which is what Argentina needs,
01:29with professionals, without politicians.
01:32What is your assessment of what has been done so far with the economic policy of Miley Caputo?
01:41Look, Maxi, we have a dual economy today.
01:45On the one hand, we have the financial economy,
01:48where it is clear that the will of the government must be highlighted,
01:52and that this is, for the first time in democracy,
01:56the commitment that there is to the budgetary balance.
01:59And what I think is even more important is that we have communicated to society
02:04and that Argentine society has taken charge and has made it clear
02:08that you cannot have an economic policy if you do not have a budgetary balance.
02:14As you know, economists call that a necessary condition, but not enough.
02:19Now I say, we have a dual economy,
02:22because as long as the financial is good, the productive is bad.
02:26And I want an integral economy,
02:28where the productive, the employment and the financial
02:32go all on the same path, on a path of growth.
02:35It is good that the government has only ten months,
02:38and I hope that it enters a new stage where it can have a more integral vision,
02:43and not just think that the tax surplus is the ultimate goal.
02:47It is a means to achieve a program, a roadmap
02:52for the integral development of the Argentine economy,
02:55and that is the agenda that remains ahead.
02:57There is a big discussion among economists,
03:00and this has also been raised with the economists of the IMF and the government,
03:03regarding how the monetary scheme follows.
03:06That is, everyone says that the government sends a very clear signal
03:09of what the fiscal anchor is,
03:11but there are doubts about what will happen
03:13with the monetary and exchange scheme.
03:16That is, if Argentina will continue with the 2% monthly crawl-in-peg,
03:21if it will continue with CEPO and financial dollars on one side
03:25and official dollars on the other.
03:27What is your vision on that point?
03:31Well, many times I find this conversation,
03:36the macro is good, but the micro is bad.
03:39And I say, wait a minute, as you know, Maxi,
03:42macroeconomics is fiscal policy, very important,
03:46and we already said that this is a point in favor of the government,
03:49but it is also exchange policy, and it is monetary policy.
03:53And in exchange and monetary policy there are uncertainties.
03:56If we are going towards a currency competition,
04:00if we are always going to have a fixed exchange rate,
04:03there are those who advocate for a world, or for an Argentina
04:07that has a constant devaluation of 2%,
04:11and that when inflation reaches 2%, that devaluation rate is 1%.
04:16Well, we have to say that the world no longer lives with fixed exchange rates.
04:21We are not in the 80s or 90s, where there were fixed exchange rates.
04:26Our commercial partners, Maxi, without going further, Brazil,
04:30with which we have practically 20% of our foreign trade,
04:35goes and comes in exports and imports to Brazil.
04:39Brazil, as you know, has a very floating exchange rate,
04:43ranging between 4.50 reals per dollar and 6 reals per dollar.
04:48It depends on whether there is capital income or not.
04:51Therefore, a definition in this regard, in terms of what is the policy
04:55to change and move forward, will also be very important
04:58for the productive sectors, those who need to invest,
05:02those who also see that there are no more regulations
05:07and so many regulations on the exchange market,
05:10that we go to a unique exchange rate.
05:12Obviously, at the beginning we will have some restrictions
05:15on tourism, on dividends, but I am in favor of having
05:19a floating exchange rate, with an anti-cyclic central bank policy,
05:24that is, that it accumulates dollars, that it buys reserves
05:27in times of fat cows, when there is capital income,
05:30as is happening at the moment, and that it also has the ability
05:34to sell those dollars when there is capital outflow
05:38or when there are moments of uncertainty in the world.
05:41But, well, that is the definition that I also like,
05:44not only to say the problem, but also to say the solution.
05:47I just told you what my solution is in this regard,
05:50or my proposal in this regard, but, without a doubt,
05:53we have to define the policy to change and move forward,
05:55because it is very important for a central variable, Maxi,
05:58which are investments.
06:00You have said that you would like there to be a coexistence
06:05of currencies with a floating exchange rate,
06:08and that the government should definitely legalize
06:13the use of the dollar for different types of transactions.
06:17What would that mechanism be like?
06:21Look, Maxi, what I am looking for is to make transparent
06:24what is already happening in the Argentines.
06:27The Argentines today save in dollars,
06:30they have shown, with the blanking of capital,
06:33that an important part has come, 12 billion, well, 13 billion,
06:37and now it has fallen to 12 billion dollars.
06:39As you know, you follow the numbers as much as I do,
06:42in the day-to-day, 12 billion dollars of deposits
06:45that have been incorporated into the financial system.
06:49This means that the Argentines, unfortunately,
06:52due to the amount of crisis we have had,
06:55we make our daily transactions in pesos,
06:58but we measure everything absolutely in dollars,
07:01and as you know, we are the third country
07:03that has the most physical dollars circulating in the informal economy.
07:08The first, of course, is the United States,
07:11the second is Russia, and the third is Argentina.
07:14So, that reality, which is a reality of the Argentines,
07:17taking advantage of this blanking,
07:20my proposal is to make transparent,
07:23let's go to a system where the Argentines define
07:26with what currency they want to pay their daily purchases,
07:29whether it is the purchases in the supermarket,
07:32the purchases in the pharmacy, the purchases of clothing,
07:35those who can, I know that unfortunately there are few,
07:40and that's why I want a much more productive economy,
07:43but those who can travel, well,
07:46that they do it in dollars or in pesos,
07:48with floating exchange rate, and with another condition,
07:51Maxi, that I have not told you until now,
07:53but I take advantage of this conversation with you,
07:56who is an economist, that taxes in Argentina
07:59are paid in pesos.
08:01I don't want the peso to disappear,
08:03I want the two currencies to coexist,
08:05and that each of the Argentines defines
08:07in what currency they want to pay,
08:09but that there is also a flip of the dollars
08:12that today are in the informality,
08:14that they turn to consumption, that they turn to production,
08:17is one of the ways to start putting the wheel
08:20of the real economy in motion.
08:22From the government, they usually argue
08:27with this issue of getting out of the pit,
08:31when, if it is urgent or not,
08:34the proposals that different economists make,
08:37and even that the FMI has made
08:39regarding the need to unify
08:42at some point the type of change,
08:44that, well, that is not an impediment to grow.
08:49The other day, Minister Caputo said
08:52Chile in the 80s, South Korea, China,
08:56have grown at very, very high rates
08:59with capital controls, with CEPO.
09:03I would like your opinion on this.
09:08Well, look, you, like me,
09:11in my case, with my team at Fundación Capital,
09:14we have to give presentations to companies every day.
09:18In the case of Fundación Capital,
09:20we have 150 companies that consult us.
09:22Today I had the chance, in the morning,
09:24to give a talk in an oil company,
09:27important, multinational,
09:30and the first question is
09:32when will the change restrictions be removed?
09:35And I obviously, I am not the one
09:37who is making the decisions,
09:39but clearly, seeing a central bank
09:41with negative net reserves,
09:43my answer will be in the short term.
09:45And my question was,
09:46why is it so important for you
09:48to change the restrictions?
09:50And precisely taking this argument,
09:52if investments can grow with or without CEPO.
09:56And the answer of this directive,
09:58which handles all of Latin America
10:00for an energy multinational,
10:02told me, look, Martin,
10:04we have many opportunities in the world
10:07to be able to invest,
10:08and we go there where there are
10:10those better opportunities,
10:12and where there is less restriction,
10:14and we know that there will be
10:16only one type of change.
10:18Therefore, the pace in terms of
10:20Argentina going towards
10:22only one type of change,
10:24and that there is really freedom
10:26to enter and to leave Argentina,
10:28of course I think so,
10:30and you know because I have practiced it too,
10:32is that there must be restrictions
10:34to short-term capital movements,
10:36to speculative capital movements.
10:38You will remember that being
10:40president of the central bank,
10:42and being Minister of Economy
10:44Roberto Labaña, in 2005,
10:46when we had a flood of dollars
10:48that were coming financially,
10:50what we did was to put in cash.
10:52In cash means that
10:54the one who came with short-term capital
10:56we said, you can come,
10:58but if you stay less than a year
11:00in Argentina, you have to pay
11:02a 30% in cash.
11:04Well, I am in favor of that type of
11:06speculative capital control,
11:08but those capitals that come to invest
11:10in order to generate employment,
11:12we have to give them certainty
11:14and we have to remove the restrictions.
11:16And regarding that,
11:18the government can also say,
11:20they don't say it publicly,
11:22but it is inferred a little
11:24regarding the answers they give,
11:26that they are reducing
11:28inflation month by month,
11:30that they are lowering
11:32inflation month by month.
11:34If one wanted to unify
11:36the type of change now,
11:38maybe that would mean
11:40that the dollar would go up
11:4210 or 20%,
11:44the official dollar,
11:46and that would boost inflation
11:48and would break all the path
11:50of de-inflation and the rules of the game,
11:52as the government has proposed.
12:00Sorry, but I lost the audio at the end, Maxime.
12:02No, no, no, I don't know if you heard me,
12:04the concept of getting out of the pit...
12:06The concept of getting out of the pit,
12:08I didn't hear the end.
12:10Of course, of course,
12:12if you don't have the risk
12:14of unifying the type of change,
12:16of going to a flotation,
12:18which is what all economists
12:20or the FMI itself propose,
12:22you don't have the risk
12:24that the official dollar
12:26doesn't end at 1000 pesos,
12:28as it is today,
12:30but at 1200 or 1300
12:32or 1250, we don't know the number,
12:34so it boosts the prices
12:36and generates instability,
12:38because when the dollar moves,
12:40obviously,
12:42it generates a feeling of instability
12:44that we don't know how it ends.
12:48No, it's clear that the way
12:50is not to keep moving the type of change,
12:52but Argentina should consider,
12:54Maxime, a productive agenda
12:56that attacks
12:58the production costs
13:00that Argentina has today.
13:02When we say that we need
13:04a private sector that is more competitive,
13:06we need to eliminate
13:08distortive taxes.
13:10We need to propose a schedule
13:12to eliminate three distortive taxes.
13:14Retention to exports,
13:16tax on debits
13:18and bank credits,
13:20tax on checks,
13:22and tax on gross income.
13:24Of course, we also have to improve
13:26logistics costs.
13:28Today, there are a number
13:30that should be subject to
13:32since the government believes that only
13:34private investment has to do
13:36public works
13:38or routes or roads.
13:40Well, start
13:42concessioning these routes.
13:44I, very recently,
13:46had to cross Route 33
13:48that joins Rosario
13:50with Bahía Blanca
13:52and the good news was
13:54the number of trucks that showed
13:56the force or that shows the productive force
13:58that Argentina has
14:00in terms of food,
14:02in terms of industry.
14:04The bad news is that the route
14:06was done.
14:08So, with an economist's criteria,
14:10one says, tomorrow, this route
14:12should be concessioned
14:14to be able to generate private investment
14:16that there is a highway
14:18that a Bahía Blanca or Rosario
14:20with Bahía Blanca and that allows
14:22that there are, for example,
14:24two-train trucks.
14:26As you know, two-train trucks
14:28that instead of carrying 30 tons,
14:30can carry 60 tons.
14:32Well, these are the costs
14:34in which Argentina has to work
14:36precisely if it wants
14:38to have a stable, permanent
14:40type of change in time
14:42and, above all, if it wants to have
14:44a productive sector that is competitive.
14:46I think that is the agenda that is ahead.
14:48And then, the last one,
14:50regarding what can happen
14:52with what everyone wants to know,
14:54with employment and with the pocket,
14:56with consumption, with the possibility
14:58of improving purchasing power
15:00in the next months
15:02or in the next year
15:04in an economy that has adjusted
15:06very strongly this year
15:08on the consumption capacity
15:10of the private sector.
15:14Well, we have had in the last months
15:16an electrocardiogram
15:18in terms of months
15:20in which the salary has won inflation
15:22and the last month, for example,
15:24the salaries when one takes
15:26and we at Fundación Capital
15:28take guild by guild,
15:30there are some guilds that have been able
15:32to win inflation,
15:34with which, unfortunately,
15:36what we do see is that, on average,
15:38when we take all the parities,
15:40it is lagging behind
15:42with respect to inflation.
15:44Therefore, what we see ahead
15:46is that there is no roadmap
15:48that encourages consumption,
15:50that allows the salary
15:52to win inflation.
15:54That is why we have given
15:56in this conversation some ideas,
15:58projects, proposals
16:00about how to motivate consumption,
16:02for example, through the use
16:04of dollars, which, for example,
16:06today will be in the financial system
16:08and must be turned to consumption,
16:10must be turned to loans,
16:12especially to the private sector.
16:14We also need a roadmap
16:16that allows us to expand investment
16:18that allows us to lower production costs
16:20that the public sector puts on the private sector
16:22and we also need, Maxi,
16:24something that we have not talked about
16:26but that for me is fundamental,
16:28is to generate export dollars.
16:30Today we have many financial dollars
16:32and Argentina, to have
16:34exchange stability and
16:36monetary stability, needs
16:38to open new markets.
16:40Today the world is discussing
16:42new production chains,
16:44to have suppliers
16:46that are close to the
16:48different distribution channels,
16:50because with the wars that there are,
16:52with the competition that there is,
16:54with the geopolitical risk,
16:56there are new production chains.
16:58So Argentina should have
17:00an international policy
17:02that is negotiating with those countries
17:04that can allow us to enter
17:06our production and then
17:08make a bargain
17:10not to use it as now
17:12to lower the inflation rate,
17:14but to increase our exports.
17:16That is the way
17:18to recover wages,
17:20to recover
17:22productive capacity.
17:24For now, what we are seeing,
17:26if we continue as before,
17:28we will have a very heterogeneous recovery.
17:30Some sectors will be able to win
17:32inflation, but the majority
17:34will have a recovery,
17:36as we call economists in terms of letters,
17:38in L, a recovery
17:40that obviously after this fall
17:42of this year, that we at Fundación Capital
17:44calculate 3.7%
17:46that production will fall.
17:48Well, next year we will have a rebound,
17:50but we will not have a process
17:52of growth and development
17:54like the one that Argentina deserves.
17:56I'll ask you one last question
17:58and wait for me a second
18:00to make some advertising warnings,
18:02very short, but I'm going to ask you
18:04one last question about...
18:06You are permanently
18:08traveling the world,
18:10you have been named
18:12as one of the main
18:14referents of the University of Florida,
18:16but above all
18:18you are one of the
18:20main professors
18:22of a master's degree in finance
18:24that includes
18:26former presidents of the Central Bank
18:28in Southeast Asia, with a headquarters
18:30in Singapore.
18:32In Kuala Lumpur.
18:34In Malaysia.
18:36In Malaysia.
18:38Well, I always say there are Argentinians
18:40all over the world.
18:42And Regrado travels permanently
18:44to the other part of the world,
18:46where there is a master's degree in finance
18:48that is provided by different
18:50former presidents of the Central Bank
18:52from different parts of the world,
18:54with economists and people
18:56trained all over the world.
18:58The question is, what vision
19:00is there today regarding Argentina?
19:02Is it better or worse than it was
19:04ten months ago?
19:06What is the alternative
19:08for Argentina in the future?
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20:52La verdad entonces queda picando la última pregunta como se ve hoy a la argentina en el mundo
21:01Miren no solo en el sudeste asiático yo estoy convencido que argentina tiene nuevamente una oportunidad en el mundo
21:08En tres sectores fundamentales hoy el mundo está pidiendo
21:12Seguridad energética y nosotros en materia de gas natural licuado tenemos
21:17posibilidades de exportar a
21:20Brasil por ejemplo pero también al resto del mundo bueno lo que está ocurriendo ya con vaca muerta en materia de petróleo
21:26pero también en materia de transición energética
21:30argentina está vista como una
21:32Gran con gran potencialidad en materia de producir energías renovables energías verdes todo lo que es verde en el mundo
21:39Maxi hoy se financia lo financian organismos multilaterales
21:43Hay donaciones y entonces
21:45seguridad energética transición energética y seguridad alimentaria y
21:51trazabilidad de los alimentos es decir dónde se ha cultivado dónde se ha procesado
21:56dónde cuál ha sido el flete que ha tenido
21:59un alimento para poder exportarse esas son las tres posibilidades que hoy argentina tiene para poder generar más
22:07exportaciones con respecto hoy a la coyuntura en la argentina mucha curiosidad
22:12Hasta hace un año no había preguntas sobre la argentina hoy hay muchas preguntas
22:17pero por ahora son preguntas hay un
22:20desencillar hasta que aclare argentina
22:23lamentablemente como usted sabe a
22:25prometido muchas veces ha sido el país que siempre ha prometido y nunca ha dado
22:30resultados por lo tanto ahora quieren ver para creer para poder invertir en nuestro país
22:35regreta horas y hace muy amable