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00:00long-term rates have basically gotten all the way back up to where they were
00:04in July. So we had the big rally in the TLT from July, August, September into the
00:10hopes of the Fed coming in to save the day. They were gonna lower 50, then they
00:15were gonna lower another 50, and maybe even 150 by the end of the year. Well
00:19that has slowly gone off the table and the long-term rates are paying attention
00:24here. And now they're like, well this Fed doesn't seem to be very aggressive and
00:29they don't think they're gonna be very aggressive to lowering rates.
00:34So long-term rates sneaking higher seemingly every day. Again, Jim Tassone,
00:40he still had the great call when he won 100. He's still short. I talked to him
00:44yesterday from the TLT. He was short over 100 and still 92 and he's still holding
00:49on here. Again, there's multiple reasons. Maybe it's just the curve here
00:56normalizing where, you know, longer-term rates are usually higher than shorter
01:00term rates. So that has to happen. But I think the stocks are starting to pay
01:03attention and starting to become concerned again with the action in the
01:07bonds and the action in the TLT. And the bond action has not been good. So if you
01:11were looking at certain sectors, like the solar stocks not having a great day at
01:16all yesterday, making a new 52-week low was the TAN. Obviously the IWM and
01:21small caps, which want rates to go lower, not having a good day, not having a
01:26good morning, getting hit pretty hard yesterday. Banks were hit hard. A lot of
01:30cyclical stocks were hit hard. Rates were a little bit of a story yesterday there, AB.
01:35Yeah, and it's interesting, I mean, because when you look at the S&P 500,
01:40and I mean, you know, if we pull it just on the daily here, we're still right up
01:44here at all-time highs. So it feels almost kind of funny to talk about the
01:47market potentially running out of steam here while we're so close to all-time
01:51highs. But it does feel like, you know, I mean you look at yesterday's
01:56price action, and again, like the underlying, the IWM, all these stocks, a
02:00lot of them were in the red. And then you had kind of like the usual suspects,
02:04right? You had Apple closing up about $1.50. You had Nvidia, like you
02:10mentioned, strong. And it's just like, you know, we've talked a lot about this,
02:14that how much reliance can we have on just these few number of stocks to
02:19continue bringing us to new all-time highs, rather than having kind of more of
02:24a broad-based rally and all stocks participating. And that's it. And we saw a
02:29little bit of that happening last week, where we saw the separation even with
02:33the TLT. IWM having a nice rally. You saw a little bit more broadening out. The
02:37banks were having a good week, but they're starting to leak those gains
02:40back. And I think the market's starting to take a little bit of concern. And the
02:44overseas markets are not great here either. I mean, look at the EFA, obviously
02:48tracking over in Europe. We're making a new one-month low here we're trying to
02:52break down to right now. So not having a good morning. So if you're looking for
02:57why, you know, the action over why we're down here this morning. Earnings that
03:01were not great this morning, that's not helping. But the overseas action wasn't
03:03helping here either. Japan also coming down, making and getting close to a
03:08one-month low there as well. So you're starting to see a little bit of nervous
03:12Nelly's here in the broad market and in the overseas markets. I
03:16don't know if it's gonna translate into tech. I'm not that worried about tech
03:20because tech is still viewed as a safety trade. Why? Because we know Nvidia
03:25AI trade seems to work in low rate environments. And even if the rates stay
03:30higher for longer, because we've seen that over the last couple years in the
03:33rising rate environment, tech was still working. So investors view tech as a
03:37safety trade. Everything else is still linked to rates. And if rates, if the TLT
03:41doesn't stabilize, it's gonna be hard to get that broad-based rally.