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00:00everybody knows the power of three triples are better for a
00:09third time this week in four days on the early line sports
00:14grids. Tom Vecchio joins us for the prop perspective. He was
00:17here Monday night for the Monday night football double
00:20header. He was here on Tuesday for the frozen frenzy and the
00:24start of a new NBA season and once again on this Thursday
00:28ahead of a hugely impactful Thursday night football game in
00:32LA between the Rams and the Vikings. We've got the World
00:35Series starting tomorrow. We've got four games in the NBA. What
00:39can't Tom Vecchio do? The answer is nothing. He does everything.
00:43He's here once again. Vecchio, thank you for your time. Of
00:47course. Thanks for having me. Yeah. World Series starts
00:50tomorrow with my Yankees taking on the Dodgers. Uh big
00:53Thursday night game as you said the return of Cooper Pup to the
00:57Rams offense and ultimately what does that look like and
01:00really not too much an issue if you're trying to get in the
01:02mix. You of course can always use a cup. Oh, there it is. I
01:08was waiting for what that pun would be today. Tom Vecchio
01:12delivers a bar once more. So, Cooper Cup expected to return.
01:17We got the report just about an hour ago. Vecchio Pukunukuwa
01:21could be on his way back tonight as well against
01:24Minnesota. The Vikings suffer their first loss of the season
01:27last week against Detroit but still a five and one football
01:31team laying two and a half points short week road test
01:34Thursday night football against just a two and four team but
01:38don't tell that to the Sharps or the spread. 90% of the bets
01:43on the spread favor Minnesota. It was three points in favor of
01:48the Vikings earlier this week. Now, it's under that key number
01:52of a flat three at just two and a half. Vecchio, it feels a
01:56little bit fishy tonight. How do you make sense of the numbers
02:00for Thursday night football? Yeah, this is certainly one of
02:03the tougher games we've had this year. There's so much going
02:06on. I think we'd all agree that Minnesota is the superior team
02:09in this matchup but the Rams all of a sudden about to get all of
02:13these reinforcements can really change things. So, I'm actually
02:16looking a little bit on the Ram side of things of what I'm
02:19expecting and I think that a lot of this comes down to the
02:21Minnesota defense, which I find like really, really fascinating.
02:25They're on the sixth fewest points per game. The second few
02:27is rushing yards per game, but they're also allowing the third
02:30most passing yards per game. So, we often see them jump out ahead
02:34and they're up by 14, nothing, 17, seven, whatever it is and
02:37the opposing teams are often playing with positive passing
02:39game scripts. So, they're not giving up rushing, which means
02:42it might not be a big Kyrie Williams week and then the Rams
02:45set to get these reinforcements at wide receiver. They could be
02:49in for a big week.
02:51Let's take a look at the quarterback position here, how
02:53maybe that factors into some reinforcements coming back for
02:57the Rams. The Matthew Stafford, 242 and a half as his passing
03:00prop. If you look at Sam Darnold, that's 245 and a half.
03:02The touchdown props, both listed at one and a half but also
03:05juiced Matthew Stafford plus money at a plus 116 price and
03:09Sam Darnold at a minus 122. If we're looking at Stafford and
03:12Darnold, which quarterback has the attention for you tonight?
03:16It's got to be Stafford and it could be for a variety of
03:18reasons, especially again, if they're going to be playing from
03:21behind. I like Stafford's passing attempts. I like him
03:24for the yards and ultimately, I kind of like him for an
03:26interception. Again, just based on the volume of passes. He may
03:30be like forced to have tonight. There's a good chance that he
03:33does throw an interception against a good defense, which
03:35again will put the Rams playing from behind. I think does
03:38bring some correlation with the over on his passing attempts.
03:41So, I actually like the Rams for a lot of different things tonight.
03:44I think we can, of course, look to the main options on the
03:46Vikings, but man, I think Stafford's got some juice
03:49tonight.
03:51He might have some juice, Vecchio, and he might have his
03:53two top targets back. Pukunukuwa was battling with an injury all
03:58offseason long, tried to work his way back for game one,
04:01never fully healthy. Cooper Cup was fully healthy only for that
04:05opening game. 14 receptions on 21 targets for 110 yards and a
04:13touchdown. Let's look at the running backs because they're
04:15two guys, Vecchio, that do a ton. Kyron Williams, anytime
04:19TD price, now minus 195. I guess it makes sense as he has
04:23scored a rushing touchdown in nine consecutive regular season
04:28games. He's got nine total TDs in six games this year. Aaron
04:32Jones has been a revelation for this Minnesota offense. How do
04:36you approach a great running back duo on this Thursday
04:39night?
04:40I actually like the over on receiving yards for both of
04:43them. And I like Kyron Williams under 73 and a half yards. And
04:46if you know, that may not be the most popular spot. I know how
04:49good he can be. But if we look back to especially really just
04:52the first two weeks when we did see Cooper Cup play, you know,
04:55we're not seeing Kyron Williams involved. Again, they were
04:57playing from behind versus the Lions, they're playing from
04:59behind versus the Cardinals. And if we're having these
05:01reinforcements, at least expecting definitely with Cup,
05:04maybe not with Pukunukuwa, that's not confirmed yet. But
05:06if they're gonna be passing the ball more, it just means we're
05:08not gonna be seeing a whole lot from Kyron Williams. Again, he's
05:10also going up against a very, very tough defense. And some of
05:12that is great game script in favor of the Vikings. So I like
05:16over on both of their receiving yards and the under on Kyron
05:19Williams rushing yards, especially.
05:22Let's talk about some of those receivers now. Justin
05:24Jefferson, the lead dog there for the Minnesota Vikings. 84
05:27and a half is his prop here at the Fandu Sportsbook. Cooper
05:30Cup, from a Rams perspective, 66 and a half. A lot of guys with
05:33some balance between the 40s, 30s and 20s. But the question is
05:37going to be I'll start here first. Cooper Cup 66 and a half.
05:40Any negative effects if Pukunukuwa comes back to this
05:43game and also with Cooper Cup coming back off of injury? Is
05:46that a no play or an absolute must play for you tonight?
05:49This is like this is the big question. And I think a lot of
05:52it comes down to a will Pukunukuwa actually be back and
05:55then will either of them be under some type of snap count,
05:59you know, play limit, whatever that be. My take on Cooper Cup
06:02is he's if he goes under this number, it's going to be because
06:05of some type of play count. If Pukunukuwa doesn't play, like I
06:09don't see a reason why Cooper Cup can't have 100 yards, right?
06:11If they need to, who's going to pass the ball to them? Why are
06:14they going to continue to get Tupu Atwell involved at a high
06:16rate? Like, sure, he'll see some targets. Colby Parkinson will
06:18see some targets. But ultimately, if it's just Cooper
06:21Cup back tonight and not Pukunukuwa, there's no reason
06:24he can't push towards 100 yards tonight.
06:27Tom, let me ask you this, put on your oddsmakers hat for just a
06:30second. If Pukunukuwa is in fact active in lines up out there
06:36tonight, and there is a prop associated, what do you think
06:39his number is? Does it detract at all for the number from
06:43Cooper Cup, which is currently at 66 and a half?
06:46I would certainly say Cup's number probably comes down a
06:49little bit. I would expect Pukunukuwa's number to be a
06:52little bit lower, maybe in the mid 50s. And ultimately, if
06:56that's what you're anticipating, you know, Tom Palacios said
06:59that Pukunukuwa could come back. If you like Cooper Cup, you
07:02may want to wait, because that number drops to 63, 64,
07:05whatever it is like you jump on the over then and it's not like
07:08Cooper Cup can't have a big game. Again, Minnesota, third
07:11most passing yards allowed per game. Again, if some of that is
07:13game script, that just plays in the favor of Cooper Cup tonight.
07:17All right, so before we flip it over to Major League Baseball,
07:19Tom, those top props once again, let the people know out there
07:22where they should be looking tonight for some action.
07:25Yeah, the touchdowns are really, really tough. There's just no
07:28one I have a whole lot of interest in. I think Stafford is
07:30going to be out there throwing the ball. I don't expect this to
07:32be a big game for Kyron Williams. So Kyron Williams
07:34under 73 and a half, Stafford over 33 and a half attempts. And
07:38I like Aaron Jones specifically over 24 and a half receiving
07:40yards. The Rams, they've allowed actually the fifth fewest,
07:44fewest passing yards up to opposing wide receivers. And
07:47we've seen Jones at 23 yards or more in five of the six games.
07:50Both these teams are actually in the top five, top six, top 10
07:52of the league when it comes to quarterback pressure per drop
07:54rack, hurry rate per drop back. So if these quarterbacks don't
07:57have the time to look downfield to adjust and Jefferson, we're
07:59going to see a lot of quick passes. And that's where we see
08:01the over on Kyron Williams receiving and Aaron Jones
08:04receiving yards as well.
08:05J Jet 84 and a half the number but he's had at least 81
08:09receiving yards in five straight five receiving
08:12touchdowns this year to Vecchio's point despite how good
08:15Kyron Williams has been as of late, Minnesota gives up a ton
08:18of passing yards, but only 80 yards per game on the ground
08:22second best in the NFL quickly here, Vecchio. In this final
08:25minute, we are on the eve of the World Series tomorrow night. It
08:28starts inside Dodger Stadium, LA a home favorite, LA a favorite
08:34to win a World Series ever so slightly in the outright numbers
08:37against your New York Yankees. What is your best play either
08:41for the World Series overall the series betting or even game
08:45number one?
08:46It's really tough to take a bet on the series overall considering
08:50I am a Yankees fan, but I think for game one, let's keep it
08:52super simple. Tommy Edmund for an RBI up at plus 260. We've
08:57seen him slowly water and in the final game, he was batting
09:00cleanup, but we did not see Freddie Freeman playing that
09:02game. Ultimately, he's batting fifth, sixth or seventh. We have
09:05all these great hitters of Tommy, Betts, Freeman, whoever
09:08might be on base ahead of him. Tommy Edmund is going to see
09:11good pitches. He has 12 RBIs in 11 games throughout the
09:14playoffs. 260 for that number.
09:1711 of those RBIs in the six games in the NLCS against the
09:21Mets. Tom, thanks for all your work this week. More Thursday
09:24Night Football next. We give you our best bets and our
09:28breakdown. One final time for Thursday Night Football, the
09:30first game of week number eight of this NFL season. DRS, I think
09:34we've done a good job of breaking down every angle, the
09:37significance of this game in week number eight. What it might
09:41mean for Minnesota, a 5-1 football team that suffered its
09:44first loss of the season a week ago, even if they fall to 5-2, I
09:49still think we would all say Vikings aren't fraudulent. Maybe
09:53they're not the best team in the NFC, but still expect them to
09:56factor into the NFC North title race and of course, a playoff
10:00spot. It is much more impactful for the Rams, especially with
10:05all of the swirling rumors, the Rams could be heavy sellers.
10:09Cooper Cup, Matthew Stafford perhaps ahead of the trade
10:13deadline. If the Rams lose this game, even if they cover, if the
10:17Rams lose this game and fall to 2-5, that might be the path
10:21forward for Los Angeles this season. If they win, though, it
10:25is a new season at three and four winners of two straight. So
10:30let's start there with how this market has been changing. The
10:34Vikes were a three-point favorite earlier in the week.
10:37Despite getting 90% of the bets on the spread, they are now just
10:41a two and a half point favorite. What does that tell you DRS
10:44about the expected outcome tonight inside SoFi?
10:48It tells us we're going to get a close game, which if you look
10:50at the MO for both of these squads for the majority of the
10:52game so far, they've all been close games, whether it's
10:55winning or losing those close games, whether it's comebacks or
10:58falling short at the end of game. So I do see the feel for
11:01getting back to the understanding of how it makes a
11:03line. You don't pick anything out of the hat and just say
11:05looks good tonight on the two and a half. As I like to say,
11:08there's a reason for this number. And there's a reason
11:10why it's dropping, even though most of the bets and most of the
11:13money is coming down here on the Minnesota Vikings. That line
11:16from three to two and a half is a very telling sign through that
11:19key number of three on the FanDuel Sportsbook. And also,
11:22we're not getting the same approach from both teams. We
11:24know what we're getting out of the Minnesota Vikings. They're
11:26really good. They're healthy enough coming into this
11:28football game. You understand what's going to take place. But
11:31from a Ram side of things, boy, you want to throw a wrench into
11:34everything. Bring back Cooper Cup, who could be healthy
11:37tonight. Let's just say he's as healthy as he's ever going to
11:40be. Same thing with Puka Nakua. Hey, you know what that knee
11:42injury wasn't as bad as expected. That's why I was able
11:44to come back so quick. I feel fantastic and my legs are fresh.
11:47Throw those two into this environment with Matthew
11:49Stafford. I go like, wait a second. I was playing the past
11:51couple weeks here with dead ends at wide receiver. Now I'm
11:54getting back Pro Bowl players here and maybe the best rookie
11:57campaign we've ever seen. And Puka Nakua signed me up right
12:00away on this. So that sort of throws things a little bit out
12:02of whack, which leads me into saying, are the Rams really a
12:05live dog in this game? Or are you overthinking yourself?
12:08Donnie, you know, the Minnesota Vikings have been a good team.
12:11They just have to win this game by a field goal. You're betting
12:13on a team with the Rams that hasn't had much success. But
12:16again, trying to convince yourself on that point that this
12:18isn't the same Rams team we're going to get tonight. Then we
12:21saw the past three weeks and they're still a winning football
12:24games or be playing close to some football games as well. So
12:27that's the tough thing you're gonna have to decipher. But the
12:29best part about that is legalized sports gambling, the
12:32fans sportsbook, you know, to pick a side or a total, you can
12:35really get after some of those profits.
12:37You certainly can. And you can just see what happens live is
12:41Cooper Cup 100% healthy and effective is Puka Nakua despite
12:46the reports actually active and lining up out there ready to
12:50make an impact. That's where Donnie lisi and Kevin Walsh of
12:53course factor into the conversation NFL football in
12:57game live game day on this Thursday night, Donnie from the
13:01spread perspective, if the number was still a three, it
13:04would be the largest spread in Minnesota's favor this year and
13:08underdog a few times as well again to the idea they play
13:12close games, whether or not they are expected to the Rams just
13:16one and five ATS this season. They were only booked as a
13:21favorite last week against the Raiders. They did not cover one
13:25and four ATS as an underdog. But some of those games not
13:29necessarily blowouts outside of week two against Arizona. The
13:33Rams have gone under and two straight as the defense has been
13:36healthier over in three of their first four Minnesota under and
13:40four or six under and all four games against non divisional
13:44foes. The only two overs for the Vikes against their NFC North
13:48competition, a win 3129 against the Packers a loss 3129 against
13:54the Lions a week ago, they've allowed 60 points in their two
13:57games against their divisional opponents. They've only given up
14:0147 in total in their four other games. Here are the totals for
14:06tonight. So you can see that look 48 and a half is the over
14:10under now let's get to the props. If Cooper Cup and Puka
14:15Nikua are back DRS. How does that change your assessment of
14:18Matthew Stafford against its Vikings defense allowed the
14:21third most passing yards this season?
14:24Yeah, it raises it up to because we're taking a look at maybe one
14:26of my most bettable numbers that I've seen over the past couple
14:30years for me. There's always the over one and a half touchdown
14:32passes for a quarterback. Yeah, you're telling me Matthew
14:34Stafford in the game tonight, he gets back Puka Nikua and also
14:37now Cooper Cup that he can't put for two touchdown passes. And
14:40most times that you like those one and a half numbers been
14:42minus 125 minus 130 minus 150 minus 160. Oh easily get that
14:47you're getting plus money on Matthew Stafford for two
14:49touchdown passes in a game where he's going to be at home on turf
14:52and not worried about any weather conditions here with a
14:54total that's close to 50 points. That sounds like something I
14:56might be buying into but it is also you have to understand the
15:00best part about living in the social media era is we're going
15:03to find out all afternoon what Puka Nikua statistics might look
15:06like if he plays a certain amount, you might get those
15:09leaks. Hey, look, he's full go. We don't even have to work him
15:11out pregame. We know he's ready to go and he's gonna have a full
15:13capacity of that playbook. That should change some things. But
15:16the one thing it won't change is here. If both those
15:18quarterbacks, excuse me, both those wideouts are playing. I'm
15:20more keyed up on Matthew Stafford now than it would be
15:22Sam Darnold.
15:24Yeah, so DRS when you look at the quarterbacks there, you see
15:27it for Sam Darnold, by the way, 11 touchdowns in the first four
15:30games, only one single touchdown to two INTs in the last two
15:34great running backs playing in this game. Aaron Jones has been
15:37huge as both a running back and receiver this year. Kylan
15:41Williams has scored a rushing touchdown in nine consecutive
15:44games. Or is it the wide receivers? We've talked so much
15:47about Puka Nikua, we almost forget about Justin Jefferson,
15:50who's at 81 receiving yards at bare minimum in five straight
15:54games. What is your favorite prop at DRS? If there was one for
15:58the skill positions?
15:59You know, it might be it will include all the skill positions
16:02in this. There is a prop bet that I love on the Fandle
16:04Sportsbook on a week to week basis if it makes sense. And now
16:06if you think about those tonight, one rushing touchdown
16:08and one passing touchdown for each one of those football teams
16:11I believe it pays out close to a two to one price. So if you're
16:14just going to encompass all of those players together, and now
16:17if you get good because the way I think Justin Jefferson catches
16:19a touchdown pass, I definitely think Kyron Williams runs one
16:22in, but now you're going to throw Cooper Cup and Puka Nikua
16:24in there, which opens up everything on that offense. Why
16:27can't we get those rushing touchdowns and passing
16:29touchdowns for a two to one price? I think that makes sense.
16:32DRS, enjoy the money line as always, my friend. Have fun
16:35tonight on NFL football in game live game day. So many live
16:39angles for this one for sure. I will see you on Monday.