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00:00Let's get you set for a new college football weekend. It is
00:06week number 10, the first Saturday in November in a game
00:10of the year for potential on Saturday afternoon, noon
00:15Eastern time kick in State College, Pennsylvania. It's
00:19number three Penn State. It's number four Ohio State. The
00:23Buckeyes a three and a half point favorite in Happy Valley
00:27total has worked its way down by a point forty-five and a
00:31hook. Then let's start with narrative because of course
00:34narrative is going to factor into this handicap, the outcome
00:38and the reaction in a large way. Ryan Day is two and six
00:43against AP top five teams and it's time at the helm of this
00:47Ohio State football program. Not good enough. James Franklin
00:51is one in nine against Ohio State during his decade at Penn
00:56State. Now year number eleven and three and seventeen outright
01:01against AP top ten foes. Also not good enough. So for which
01:06coach and program does the narrative sadly continue by the
01:11end of Saturday afternoon? I mean, I don't like the way Ohio
01:18State is playing right now. That said, Penn State, if
01:23Brayden Locke doesn't throw that pick six, I don't know
01:25that Penn State wins that game last week. I mean, that was
01:28just a gut punch kick in the groin kind of, you know, for
01:32Wisconsin backers last week. Me being one of them, of course,
01:34otherwise, I still wouldn't be upset about it. But you know,
01:38I gotta give the nod here to Penn State just a little bit,
01:43especially with a three and a half. Like this feels like a
01:46field goal game all around. Like there's nothing about this
01:48that doesn't scream it's going to be tight. Ryan Day is always
01:51sort of choked in these big moments, particularly on the
01:53road. You know, if this game was at the horseshoe, it'd be a
01:55completely different conversation. But you know, you
01:58get a 12 o'clock kick, which favors Penn State. I think more
02:01than anything being in their their own turf and drew out.
02:05It's been really good. You know, he's taking care of the
02:07football. I know he was banged up last week. I assume given
02:10this number is where it is that he's playing again this week
02:12and after two tough road wins, they come back home in a
02:16favorable spot and all of a sudden, the Ohio State offense
02:19is starting to look a little bit human. Like when you look
02:21at what happened last week at home against Nebraska, you
02:24know, is it the wake-up call that the Buckeyes needed to
02:26say, hey, we need to play better or is it the reality of
02:30guess what? You're finally playing a team that you know,
02:34you're finally starting to play teams that are of the same ilk
02:37of you. No disrespect to Iowa, but on the road, they're not
02:41the same team in Michigan State's offense is not very
02:43good, aka bad, aka they don't score a ton. So the last three
02:48weeks, the last two weeks in this week will tell us really
02:50what Ohio State is and I think we find out that Penn State
02:52here, even if they get a loss here, it'll be one of those
02:56that the committee will look at favorably upon because they're
02:58going to make this, they're going to make life hell for
03:00three hours for Ohio State on Saturday. Positives for Penn
03:04State, they don't have to go to the airport, which has a short
03:06tarmac out there that and also negative though, I disagree on
03:10this. I think if this game was a night game and a whiteout
03:12game, Ohio State for me would be in much more trouble. Let's
03:15get to another institution that's in trouble with the
03:16quarterback position. That's the Michigan Wolverines taking
03:19on Oregon. The opening line, the look ahead was ten and a
03:22half as a favorite towards Oregon mark. Now, we're seeing
03:24fourteen and a half. So over two touchdowns and a total of
03:27forty-five and a half. Michigan, can they score in this
03:31game is the question mark? Well, you just answered it right
03:34there and you guys know I've said this often. You know how I
03:37cut games in half. I talked about it last week with Illinois
03:40that if they couldn't stay within the first half number,
03:42they weren't staying within the game and that's exactly the same
03:44case here because this is not an offense that is built to play
03:47catch up. They can't be down by seventeen and a half and
03:51expect to get back to back scores, you know, and bring
03:55this thing right back together where the defense holds it up
03:57against a really good offense. Like that's just not a game
03:59script that's favorable. The only way Michigan can stay
04:02within this number is to keep this within seven points in the
04:05first half and that's the best chance that they have. Oregon
04:09looks like a machine right now. You know, I mean, they are just
04:13really, really good on both sides of the ball and Michigan's
04:16offense doesn't scare anybody. So, at this point in time, you
04:20know, there's only one play to take. It's I would look at
04:24Oregon and lay the seven and a half in the first half and
04:26guess what? If they ain't covering then, you know, the
04:28possibility is still there. They could pull away late but
04:31it would have to take some level of mistake by Michigan,
04:34an interception or a short field or something like that.
04:36It gives Oregon a decided advantage but I wouldn't play
04:40Michigan here. I'd lay the seven and a half with Oregon in
04:43the first half or pass. I would go over 45 and a half. Michigan
04:47over in five of six games this year against Power Four
04:51competition in their three games as a dog. Almost unheard of.
04:55This will be their third game in the big house as an underdog
04:59on Saturday. They've allowed at least twenty-four total points
05:03in Oregon over in all three games. They have laid less than
05:06three touchdowns. This is two touchdowns and the hook but at
05:10least less than three. Zeno, not many undefeated teams left
05:15in college football entering the month of November. Army
05:18however though is certainly that commander in chief's trophy
05:22and that positioning very much at stake because Air Force lost
05:26the Navy and got routed. Now, it's Army's time to take on the
05:31Falcons. Army, a hefty favorite. Can the Black Knights win and
05:36cover by more than three touchdowns? I mean, it is a sad
05:41state of affairs when the best football team in New York is
05:45the Army Black Knights. Sorry, Jets and Giants. Sad. No, it's
05:49not sad but I mean, it's you know, listen, I'm happy about
05:53the whole thing. I'm not going to lie. Now, that said, I will
05:57be open with the audience here and tell everybody. I feel like
05:59I already made a mistake. I got very giddy earlier when this
06:03line came out and particularly the first half line came out.
06:08Now, this thing opened up around 2324. It's come down.
06:10Why? Because Army being that big of a favorite is sort of
06:13ludicrous. Go back to the Air Force versus Navy game. I
06:17played Navy first half in that game minus six and a half. They
06:20easily cover. Why? Because Air Force is one of the lowest
06:23scoring teams in the first half of the country averaging 7.8
06:26points in the first half. Army at home this year averaging
06:28nearly 29 points per game in the first half at home this
06:32year. I laid thirteen and a half with Army which I feel
06:36incredibly gross and disgusting about because there's a lot of
06:39ways this could go wrong. It has to follow the game script
06:42that has followed for Army the entire year which is they score
06:46at least twenty-one and they don't allow more than seven
06:49which in Air Force doesn't score a whole lot more than
06:51seven in the first half here. I would not play Army to cover
06:54the entire game. There's a good chance they can do it but
06:57again, that requires them to be up twenty-four to three at
07:00half and they continue to roll in the second half. Yeah, you
07:04know, it's really interesting. This Air Force team, not the
07:07Air Force team in the last few years. In fact, the Falcons are
07:10the only team in the country that has failed to cover a
07:14number this year. Oh and seven ATS. Army meanwhile has covered
07:19in six of their seven wins. All of them. This seat four
07:23around college football next. Now, Mark Zinno becomes the
07:28mouth in the south. He has been here bemoaning his Yankees
07:32and rightfully so and then we had him preview everything else
07:35not in the SEC for Saturday and week number ten of this
07:39college football season but the mouth in the south is here and
07:43he is ready for his SEC picks.
07:48Yeah.
07:53The world's largest outdoor cocktail party is in
07:58Jacksonville on Saturday between number two Georgia and
08:02Florida. One of the great rivalries in this sport. More
08:05than 100 meetings between these two. UGA favored by sixteen and
08:11a half. Florida showed a little bit of something though Zinno
08:14after starting off this year a little bit more peculiar. Can
08:18the Gators keep this game within the number in
08:21Jacksonville on Saturday? It doesn't feel like it. Um look
08:26outside of the COVID year where Florida is able to win one
08:29Kirby Smart has won six of these. So he's won six of the
08:32last seven and he's done so in really convincing fashion with
08:36the exception of 2019 which was the um that was Jake Fromm's
08:41year. Um every single one of these wins has been by at
08:44least two scores. Two touchdowns that is. So you
08:48know um it's really tough for me to believe that this is a
08:50Florida team that can hang with Georgia. Uh this is a fatter
08:54number than we're used to seeing. That is for sure. So
08:58there is some pause for concern as far as laying a number this
09:01big um especially with Florida um you know on triple revenge
09:07here right like they they need to win one against Billy Napier
09:10might be able to save his job by winning this game alone.
09:14He's fourteen six and one ATS is a conference underdog.
09:17Georgia four and twelve ATS is a favorite of seven or more
09:20when coming off three straight wins. Um you know the number
09:24tends to get a little bit of it inflated for the Bulldogs at
09:27this point in time. Could it be a little bit of a letdown spot
09:29after the big win that Georgia had last time out? Yeah, maybe
09:33but the by hopefully should neutralize some of that and I
09:35don't think Kirby's gonna take his foot off the gas pedal
09:37here and that's the other component to this thing guys.
09:39Come on. Kirby played at Georgia. He knows what this
09:41game means. He doesn't take it lightly. There is no softening
09:45on Florida. There is no like, hey guys, let's pull up here.
09:48He'll put his foot on the gas pedal for as long and as hard
09:50as he can in four quarters and that leads me to believe that
09:53Georgia is probably the right side. Let's keep it in the SEC
09:56there. Kentucky traveling to take on number seven Tennessee
09:59line around seventeen at this point right now the bottom is
10:01falling out on Kentucky and the SEC particularly I believe it
10:04was two games ago getting forty plus points dropped on them.
10:07Can Tennessee cover that seventeen sixteen and a half to
10:09seventeen points in this game this weekend? I mean how much
10:13does Kentucky have like you know the the sort of chutzpah
10:18and the the the self-respect and not get rolled up on again
10:22for a third straight week. I genuinely don't know the answer
10:24to that. They they sort of look like they've quit you know the
10:28big thing here for Tennessee is like you know the offense still
10:33since the you know Kent State game where they scored 71 and
10:36we all thought they were the best team in the world. 2514
10:40twenty-three and OT and twenty-four. This is a really
10:43good defense still and I would like to think that Mark Stoops
10:47and the Kentucky crew are going to sit here and go what we
10:49might lose this game, but we're not going to get beaten like
10:51that. so I know it's Neyland Stadium. I know it's really
10:55tough for them to win or you know for Kentucky to win this
10:58game on the road, but you know this number just feels a little
11:01bit too large for my taste seventh SEC game already for
11:06the Cats. They've been favored in four. They've lost all four
11:09of those outright in their two as an under the huge upset in
11:13Oxford against Ole Miss and a tight one point game against
11:18Georgia Tennessee who could not not cover a number to start
11:22this year had the best cover percentage in the country now
11:25is not covered in their last two as the favored side both
11:29playing two touchdowns under in four straight for the balls
11:32to your points in 191 points in the first three games of this
11:37year in total twenty-five or less in their last four. Let's
11:41go around the SEC expected to be a close ones. You know in
11:45Columbia on Saturday, South Carolina and A and M Texas A and
11:49M made a statement on Saturday with Marcel Reed coming back to
11:54beat LSU feels a little bit fishy and trappy can't avoid
11:59the upset. I mean I think South Carolina is going to end up
12:03being the sharp square dog this weekend. I mean everybody's
12:06jumping on South Carolina. The number screams it right like
12:09why is the team in the country only laying less than a field
12:11goal to a South Carolina team that at times this year has
12:14looked really bad. You know it seems like it you know and for
12:20me, it's one of those where I would kind of wait on this
12:22thing and see where the number goes on Saturday, but I think
12:25South Carolina is the sharp square dog here in A and M
12:29probably will end up winning this one. Yeah. It feels like
12:33that look as well as you know a very peculiar number. Is it
12:36correct? We shall see we thank you Mark. You know we thank you
12:41for expressing your anger at the Yankees now go relax my
12:45friend hour three up next.