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00:00The second Saturday in November, the first weekend following the first college football
00:10playoff rankings of this season, it gets even more significant each and every week leading
00:17up to that last Saturday of the college football campaign and selection Sunday, the opening
00:24weekend of December.
00:26So to help you get set for week number 11 of this college football season, Mark Zinno
00:31is here live on this Thursday on the early line on Sports Grid.
00:35Zinno, as always, we appreciate the time.
00:38We will start in the Southeastern Conference.
00:41We'll look at the rest of the country in college football in week 11 after.
00:45We're glad to have you here on this Thursday.
00:47Gentlemen, great to be with you as always.
00:49We are at kind of elimination time for some of these teams, right?
00:53We've seen the first college football playoff rankings come out and how it gets serious
00:56as every team tries to vie for positioning here and now the ever boring top 12.
01:02And Mark Zinno, as you said, that's part of what still makes the college football playoff
01:07despite expansion incredibly interesting.
01:10Some that were anti-expansion, tough week to be those guys, but some that were anti-expansion
01:15said that regular season games would not matter anymore.
01:19Regular season games often work as de facto college football playoff games.
01:24Well, welcome to week 11 Saturday in the SEC.
01:27He's Mark Zinno.
01:28He's also the mouth in the South, and now it's time for his SEC picks.
01:41Because on cue, Mark Zinno, welcome to Saturday night in Death Valley.
01:46It's number 11, Alabama.
01:48It's number 14, LSU.
01:50It's a top 15 tilt in Death Valley.
01:54Under the lights at night, we know how difficult a venue is that is for the opposition inside
02:00Tiger Stadium.
02:02And Mark, this is your de facto elimination game.
02:05Both of these teams already multiple losses this season.
02:10And Alabama is a two and a half point road favorite in Baton Rouge.
02:14We did see LSU as a slight home underdog previously this year against Ole Miss win
02:20that game outright.
02:22It is a de facto elimination game, so Zinno, who keeps their season afloat after Saturday
02:28night?
02:29The LSU Tigers, I mean, it's a Saturday night in Baton Rouge.
02:34What could go wrong down in Death Valley for the Alabama Crimson Tide, of all things?
02:38I mean, you also have LSU coming off a loss last time out to Texas A&M, so they probably
02:44are a little bit hungry for a win here and need it.
02:46I don't 100% know that this is an elimination game.
02:49It feels like it, but there's still a path for both of these teams, the loser of this,
02:54to actually still get in the college football playoff when it's all said and done.
02:58We've seen the committee do quirkier things, to say the least, at certain times.
03:01But I don't know that Alabama, without a run game to speak of, without any level of consistency,
03:07is going to be able to handle LSU.
03:09These are the spots here where I kind of trust Brian Kelly as a game caller and a
03:14play caller more than I would Kaitlin DeBoer at this point in time.
03:18And we've seen Alabama struggle offensively, so there's a lot going up against them.
03:22The last time Nick Saban went down here, two years ago, didn't work out well for the Tide
03:27then.
03:28I don't think it works out well for the Tide now.
03:29It should be a good game down there, and you're right about it.
03:32So hard to beat LSU at night.
03:33But also, Mark, each team has had two losses.
03:35Can you imagine if this was like two or three years ago?
03:38This would be going for a dollar.
03:40Nobody would be watching this game on TV because nobody would care, and they're both out of
03:42it now.
03:43Huge stuff.
03:44And as you said, I love it.
03:45I sort of misconstrued this season as well, where it's like, you can afford one loss,
03:49two probably doesn't get you in.
03:51Third loss still might be able to get you in.
03:53College football back in a big way, Mark, which includes in the Grove, in the SEC, Georgia,
03:58and Ole Miss.
03:59The look-ahead line, six-and-a-half-point favorite here for Georgia.
04:01We now see it as two-and-a-half across the board, and a total 54-and-a-half, Georgia-Ole
04:06Miss.
04:07What do you make of the 20-30 SEC?
04:10I mean, this is the Lane-Kiffin game that equates to the James Franklin game.
04:14They can't win in the Big Ten, right?
04:15Like, this is the game for Lane-Kiffin to sort of put a feather in his cap and go, look,
04:21Ole Miss has really arrived.
04:23And Kiffin has done amazing things down in Oxford, right?
04:26This program is at heights it hasn't been pretty much ever, and they are a consistent
04:30perennial powerhouse, and they're here.
04:31They're going to have to get past the Georgia team that has a bunch of warts, and which
04:35Georgia team is really going to show up, the one with Carson Beck as a turnover machine,
04:39which he's been.
04:40Joe, by the way, Carson Beck, not an NFL quarterback, guys, this just in.
04:45From this standpoint here, Georgia has to figure out a way to be able to run the ball
04:49at some consistently, keep the ball in their hands, and then slow down what may be one
04:53of the better quarterbacks in the country, and Jackson Dart, when you look at it, and
04:57we had this conversation last night, a bunch of us, about if I needed an SEC quarterback
05:02to win one game, Jackson Dart might be the guy you'd pick at this point in time.
05:06I mean, honestly, he may be the most reliable guy out there, and it's going to be on him
05:10really to steal this game here for the Rebs.
05:14But the key is, guys, Ole Miss has to play with a lead.
05:16They have to keep Georgia on their heels.
05:18If they get down, Georgia's defense will lock down and not give it up, similar to what we
05:22saw against Texas, where Georgia was able to control the game and choke them out, and
05:27really kind of send the pass rush and make life heck for Quinn Ewers and Arch Manning
05:33for the short time that he was under center.
05:35But long story short here, guys, Ole Miss, if they can get out to an early lead here,
05:39I think they can hang on in this one.
05:41It will be really interesting, Mark, and you bring up a great point about Lane Kiffin.
05:45In these significant spots, as an underdog in Oxford, 14 times with Lane Kiffin, they
05:52are 8-6 against the spread, 6 of those 8 covers, an outright victory.
05:58Of course, when you look back on what Ole Miss has done with ranked opponents seeing
06:03Lane Kiffin, they are just 7-9 straight up.
06:06Lane in his college coaching career, 10-20, a huge spot.
06:11Meanwhile, against ranked foes with Kirby Sports, since the start of 2021, Georgia is
06:1618-3.
06:18In fact, Georgia in its last 56 football games since the middle portion of 2020 is 53-3 with
06:29all three of those losses against the same team, and that is Alabama.
06:34Zeno elsewhere on the SEC slate on Saturday.
06:38An interesting one starts at noon in Austin, Texas, of course, looking to find its way
06:43back.
06:44It drops to Georgia, a non-cover on the road in Nashville against Vanderbilt.
06:48Now a three-touchdown favorite against Florida.
06:52On the injury report, DJ Lagway listed as questionable.
06:56It seemed to be a severe hamstring injury last week in Jacksonville against UGA.
07:01They're not ruling him out this week.
07:03How will that impact the spread by the time we reach Saturday afternoon?
07:07Well, it'll get right past 24 if Lagway is out.
07:12But the thing here is this, even if Lagway is in and 100% healthy, you have to ask yourself,
07:17that was Florida's Super Bowl last week and the game that may have saved Billy Napier's
07:22job at least for another week or longer by being so competitive and having a lead and
07:27having a chance to take out Georgia, right?
07:29How much do they have left in the emotional tank to get back up for a second week in a
07:32row playing away from the swamp for the second week in a row to go down to Austin and try
07:37and win that game?
07:39I don't know that it's there.
07:40I'm not comfortable laying 21 and a half in an SEC game pretty much ever.
07:44But this looks like a spot where it's really simple.
07:48You know how I always cut games in half here, Ben and Donnie.
07:51If Florida's not within 14 and a half, they're going to have no shot.
07:55So I would look, if I'm going to take Florida, I'd play them in the first half, but I'd probably
07:59lean Texas here in the first half and the game to cover it.
08:03Mississippi State, Mark, here struggling in the SEC.
08:05Know that about it.
08:060 and 5.
08:07They're going up against Tennessee.
08:08That's a heavy line.
08:09Minus 23 and a half points.
08:10But we have that proverbial, hey, Tennessee, who you got next week after an easy game this
08:14week?
08:15Oh, Georgia's on deck.
08:16How do we play this one out?
08:17Like, OK, this number, like I had to do a triple take to stare at the screen to make
08:24sure I was seeing what I was seeing.
08:27What world does Tennessee deserve to be laying over three touchdowns?
08:30Has anybody watched them play football last month?
08:33Like that's insane.
08:34There is no way you're laying this kind of number.
08:38Tennessee hasn't covered a spread this big since they played Kent State back in week
08:41three.
08:42Like, stop.
08:43We have too much of a sample size at this point in time to believe that Tennessee can
08:47cover this number.
08:48Mississippi State, for all their flaws, has been scrappy.
08:50They've been in games.
08:51They hung around with Georgia.
08:52They're not necessarily a team that is as bad as we thought they were, at least at the
08:56outset.
08:57Sure, they've been beaten by a couple of teams, but still, come on.
09:00Tennessee cannot be laying 24 points against anybody right now.
09:05More than likely, the Bulldogs are not going to win this game on Rocky Top, but Mississippi
09:09State has been a three touchdown dog already three times this year in SEC play.
09:13They are perfect.
09:143-0 ATS.
09:15Meanwhile, Tennessee has been a double-digit favorite three times in SEC play, 0-3 against
09:22the number.
09:23It's all the cowbell on Saturday, more with Mark Zinno next.
09:26In Bloomington, they used to joke about Nine Windiana, a program that had only ever won
09:32nine games a few times in program history, and certainly, in the 136 years prior to this
09:39one, had never started a perfect 9-0.
09:42Well, welcome Kurt Cignetti.
09:44The Hoosiers are 9-0 for the first time ever in Indiana football program history, and oh,
09:50the Hoosiers have covered in eight of those nine wins, and oh, Indiana is favored to beat
09:57Michigan in a football game for the first time since 1968.
10:02And not just a three-and-a-half-point favorite or laying a touchdown at home, it's two touchdowns
10:08in favor of the Hoosiers trying to win ten games in a season for the first time ever.
10:16Zinno, will Indiana do so and potentially cover comfortably against the Maize and Blue,
10:22the reigning national champs on Saturday in Bloomington?
10:25Yeah, yeah, I mean, look, somebody who stepped in front of Indiana at one point this season
10:31and got my tail handed to me, they're a wagon, and it's really hard to deny the numbers
10:37that they've put up and what they have done so far.
10:41You also have to acknowledge they haven't had a step up in class that matters, and Michigan
10:44is not, this year's Michigan is not a step up in class that matters.
10:48Michigan is no offense.
10:50So the biggest problem here is that while Michigan's defense may be able to slow down
10:54Indiana and only keep them to, let's call it 27, much similar to what we saw Washington
11:01be able to do earlier this year against them, I don't know that you are going to get much
11:06out of Michigan's offense enough to keep this thing close.
11:09So the Indiana defense also has requited themselves really well.
11:14We keep talking about the offense and Rourke and what he's done, but this is still a defense
11:20that has done really, really well and has managed to hold up their end of the bargain
11:27here.
11:28So I don't see a path for Michigan here other than Indiana playing poorly and choking on
11:33their home turf.
11:34It's a hard, it's Indiana or pass.
11:36I mean, I'm not going to get involved, but at this point, Indiana is, it looks like the
11:40right side.
11:41Yeah.
11:42Putting the who in Hoosiers here with that actual schedule that they have, who sure as
11:47have they played?
11:48Nobody.
11:49All right.
11:50Let's keep moving forward here.
11:51BYU, Utah, the battle out there.
11:53And by the way, I don't know if this is Army, Navy mark, 40 and a half, the listed total
11:57in this game and a favorite towards BYU, unbeaten BYU at minus three and a half.
12:02What's going on out there?
12:03How is this?
12:05I mean, look at this spot for Utah, right?
12:10I can't remember the last time Kyle Whittingham didn't win nine games in a year.
12:13I know it's happened, you know, within the last 10, 12 years, but I don't, it's not off
12:17the top of my head.
12:18It seems like it's a fait accompli.
12:20And guess what?
12:21Kyle Whittingham ain't winning nine games this year.
12:22So that's number one.
12:25Utes have lost four in a row and they are in a desperation spot here against a BYU team
12:31that has had some close calls and some near misses, but also some pretty convincing wins.
12:37You know, the Holy war here will be decided early on and Utah's defense will let us know
12:42if they're up for this game and if they're primed for this game.
12:45But it all boils down to who's playing quarterback for Utah.
12:48And it's been the mess that has been the last season and a half for the Utes and why things
12:51have gone off the rails.
12:52They've just had no consistency at that position.
12:55And it's really hard to back them from an offensive standpoint.
12:57That said, it's going to take a lot of my friends to talk me off of betting Utah here.
13:02Like I really going to need Saturday, some really good coaxing and everything else to
13:05not get to the wind wall, Utah, just given the spot, the situation, the rivalry and everything
13:10else.
13:11Yeah.
13:12Listen, you bring up a good point.
13:13It is the Holy war.
13:14It's the first time they've played the Holy war as conference mates since 2012, the 102nd
13:21Holy war between BYU and Utah, BYU, of course, one of five remaining undefeated teams in
13:28college football.
13:30They have also covered in all but one of their games this year, Mark Zinno.
13:35Next up, we stay in the big 12 for a true conference contender.
13:40It may be a college football playoff contender.
13:43That's 20th ranked Colorado.
13:45They head to Lubbock to take on Texas tech as a slight three and a half point favorite.
13:50The red Raiders, perfect three and oh, against the number as an underdog this year, just
13:55pulled off a huge upset last week on the road in Jack Trice against Iowa state.
14:01Can the red Raiders be upset minded once again in this big 12 battle?
14:06Yeah, I would love this game a lot more of Texas tech didn't just roll into Ames, Iowa
14:10last week and beat the Hawkeyes, like something that a lot of teams don't really do all that
14:15often at this point in the year.
14:18What world do we get into where we have Colorado as a road favorite?
14:24They were a road underdog in Nebraska.
14:25They were a road underdog at UCF and they were a road underdog to Arizona, who turns
14:29out to be horrible this year.
14:31And now they're laying three and a half on the road to Texas tech.
14:34Like, come on.
14:35I mean, you know, they're off a bye, but you know, how much did Dion really do during the
14:41bye here is the real question.
14:42You know, I mean, he's worried about you and the Raiders losing so he can get his son
14:47into the Las Vegas to be the starting quarterback there.
14:50Like I just not a world where I'm laying points on the road with the Colorado Buffaloes in
14:55that defense.
14:56Just period.
14:57Texas tech here is the right side.
14:58Let's see how many, see how many touchdowns Hunter can rack up in this one, trying to
15:02win a Heisman.
15:03Why?
15:04Because the front runners right now, Travis Hunter and also Miami, Florida, the hurricanes
15:08and we're going to take on Georgia tech in Atlanta this weekend.
15:11That total now sitting at 63 and a half points in a double digit favorite for the Miami hurricanes.
15:15Mark.
15:16We know Miami can move on offense, but other teams can move the football on their defense.
15:21What gives this weekend?
15:22I mean, the big question here is the status of Haynes King for Georgia tech.
15:26Is he back?
15:27Is he playing?
15:28I mean, that's, you know, if he is, then I would go the over.
15:31Absolutely.
15:32Because he's the key to their offense here.
15:35Uh, Benny will tell you the, the long list of Brent key underdog stats here and how well
15:42he's performed.
15:44That said, this may be a different level of team that he's performing against in this
15:49spot.
15:50Um, I was earlier in the year again, you know, Georgia tech was, it was a big dog earlier
15:54in the year.
15:55The Louisville, they didn't get it done there.
15:56Um, you know, as a late sort of punt block touchdown, help the Cardinals cover that game.
16:01But this is a whole different world here with Miami.
16:04Uh, I don't know that Georgia tech has the horses in the barn to keep up here.
16:07I'd love to think that they can, but if it Haynes King isn't going, I don't think you
16:11could play Georgia tech in any way.
16:13Seven and three against the spread as a double digit dog after the victory against Florida
16:18state in Ireland to open the year.
16:21But they had now have not covered in their last three games as an underdog, including
16:26their last two as a double digit dog, including two weekends ago against Virginia tech, getting
16:3111 points from the Hokies.