• 2 days ago
Transcript
00:00The Pittsburgh Steelers hoping for the same on Sunday in the
00:09AFC North battle for that top spot against the Baltimore
00:13Ravens. However, unlike what we saw in Philly in the Steel
00:17City, the home team is not favored. In fact, the flock a
00:22full field goal favorite. That incredibly significant number
00:26of three on the road in Pittsburgh. Forty-eight and a
00:30half the total for a Ravens and Steelers game. What happened to
00:34the game? I love but the field goal in terms of that favored
00:38side for Baltimore Joe. Let's start there. Is the number two
00:43large? Is the correct team favored or do you feel it is
00:46fitting for what we will see on Sunday? So, a couple of things.
00:52He's got a lot of trends working in in this game and we
00:55know that the underdog always covers this game always in all
01:00likelihood will win out. It's been like that forever. The
01:04numbers are ridiculous. You got Tomlin at home as an underdog
01:08is outside of the Ravens is absurd but now you just his
01:13battles with Harbaugh over the years. Whoever is the underdog
01:17in this series usually ends up not only covering but winning
01:20outright here. We also have a Ravens team that is nine and
01:24one to the over Ben. Their games average fifty-seven points.
01:29That's two and a half more than any other team right now in the
01:33NFL. They are a scoring machine. They can score thirty on
01:38everyone and at the same time with that secondary, guess what
01:41they'll give up. Thirty to everyone that they play in
01:45Pittsburgh has been absolutely great. I will give it to Russell
01:49Wilson. I'll give it to Arthur Smith. Maybe that is the
01:53biggest surprise to me so far Ben is that Arthur Smith
01:57actually created some balance with this offense. Didn't make
02:00it all about the running game and the ability to be able to
02:04stretch the field with Pickens. This game is a dead over. There
02:07is no way I'm sweating out an under with Ravens Pittsburgh
02:11and it feels crazy to say that in November. It does. The
02:14Baltimore Ravens have gone over in nine of ten games as Joe
02:18mentioned and he mentioned also the average margin they are
02:21going over the expected outcome by 9.3 points per game. So
02:27again, it's not like this is Navy or Army in this college
02:31football season where the totals were thirty-seven and a
02:33half and they're scoring 45 points to begin the Ravens have
02:37played in games, including a short week Thursday night game
02:41last week that featured a total of fifty-two and a half and it
02:44with a combined sixty-nine nice points, but for the
02:49Pittsburgh Steelers, when you look at what Russell Wilson has
02:52done in his three starts in a Steelers uniform, of course,
02:56they have won all three. They have gone over in all three.
03:00They have gone over in four consecutive games. This the
03:04highest total of the year though for Pittsburgh, which
03:07already goes over the highest total of their season, which
03:10was last week 45 and a half against the commanders and it
03:14was nearly over by double digits. Joe to your point just
03:18quickly about the underdog in this matchup. We share the
03:21trend yesterday courtesy of Stucky. Maybe some of you know
03:23him from social media doing some work with the Action Network.
03:27I do believe that in this matchup, but of course, John
03:30Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin Tomlin in the Steel City for 18 years
03:34now Harbaugh in the Charm City for seventeen seasons since
03:38Harbaugh arrived in Baltimore in 2008 when the Ravens have
03:43been a field goal favorite or more and a matchup against the
03:47bitter rivals that are the Steelers. They are oh ten and
03:52two against the spread. They have never covered a number
03:56when laying at least a field goal in the Steelers this year
04:00are perfect three and oh outright as an underdog and yet
04:05Joe when you look at the numbers Baltimore despite
04:08trailing Pittsburgh by a half game in the division is a minus
04:11260 favorite to win the AFC North. Is that number slightly
04:15skewed if we expect the Steelers to be live on Sunday
04:19at home? It absolutely is then because what is that number if
04:23they win this game? It ain't gonna be that and not even
04:27remotely close. We listen eight three and one against the
04:31number as a home underdog since 2021 with teams that weren't
04:35half as good offensively as this one. They are live been at a
04:39good price.

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