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00:00And a compelling day for Clemson, ranked 20th in the country on the road, taking on Pitt.
00:06Now, you'll see the number, 11 and a half in favor of the Tigers, but some news this
00:10morning.
00:11Eli Holstein, the Panthers quarterback injured last week in the loss to Virginia, has been
00:16ruled out.
00:17It's Nate Yarnell getting the start for the Panthers today.
00:22And Lacey Guy, as we look at this spread, a Clemson team that has won seven of eight
00:26games since the opening season loss to Georgia, a Pitt team that started perfect, 7-0, and
00:32now has dropped to consecutive.
00:35Where do you start your breakdown today in Pittsburgh?
00:37Well, you look at the game last week for me in terms of Clemson and Virginia Tech, right?
00:41They started slow, they get the block field goal, Virginia Tech takes a 7-0 lead, and
00:46then all of a sudden the defense makes adjustments, right?
00:49They buckle up, shut down the run, Kyron Jones had a mediocre performance, about $1.59 through
00:55the air, and all of a sudden we saw Cade Kloepnick come on in the second half.
00:59I look at this game, and again, it's not even the quarterback situation for Pitt right now,
01:05it's the mindset of Pitt, right?
01:06They were undefeated when they walked into Dallas a couple weeks ago, right?
01:11They had everything in front of them.
01:12We win this game, we're in the title game potentially, squaring off with Miami, they
01:16lose.
01:17It reminds me of last year with Air Force, 8-0, they lose that game to Army, all of a
01:22sudden they drop four straight.
01:23I'm not inclined to just jump at this 11-1⁄2, even though it's enticing, I lean to Clemson,
01:30but I do like this 53-1⁄2 total, because Yarnell's number is 196, they have to score
01:35at least 24 to beat Clemson, I believe, and I do believe Clemson can throw over the top,
01:41so give me Clemson, but I really like the over 53-1⁄2.
01:44So for me, I look at this game, and what I would say is buyer beware, because it's probably
01:50hard to get a grasp on the gap between Holstein and Yarnell.
01:54A lot of that is because Holstein was such a surprise, right?
01:56The freshman we didn't know was going to come out there and put pressure on like Marino
02:00numbers in the early beginnings of his season.
02:03But I do look at this number, and I look at what we've seen from the recent Clemson numbers,
02:07I mean this team laid 6-1⁄2 last week to Vatek.
02:10Now I understand the underlying situation with Pitt, if you were to tell me that odds
02:14makers don't believe Pitt is as good as Vatek, I wouldn't be surprised by that.
02:18Not by this much of a gap, with the home field advantage in favor of the Panthers
02:21in this spot, at over double digits, I have to give Pittsburgh a chance, because this
02:26is where certain, so I'm not a huge Narduzzi guy, like I think he kind of limits the ceiling,
02:32but sometimes those guys who limit ceilings, Ben, raise floors.
02:35And Narduzzi here, without a great quarterback, I'm like, this is great, defense, run, run,
02:40run, and that's how maybe you can stay inside this number.
02:43And that will be the test for this Pitt team, because when they have been favored this year,
02:47six of their nine games, they've allowed less than 24 points in all of those six.
02:53Just 19.5 points per game given up.
02:56And normally the Panthers start defensively, but in their three games as an underdog, they've
03:00allowed at least 27 points in all of those, giving up more than 36 points per game.
03:06And I was wrong on the Tigers last week, heading to Lane Stadium to take on Virginia Tech.
03:11It was a Clemson defense that was not as strong, allowing more than 350 yards, entering last
03:16week about 40 on the ground.
03:19They hold a good Virginia Tech rushing offense to only 40 yards on 21 carries as a team.
03:25Just 228 total yards Clemson covered in that game.
03:29They are five and three against the spread, favored in all eight since the opening season
03:34loss to Georgia, over in three of those five covers, but not last week against VodTech.
03:39We'll see.
03:40That number, by the way, Joe, has dropped to 50 and a half, I think, with the Nate Yarnell
03:44news.
03:45Four of 12 last week for 44 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions in the loss to UVA.