French Prime Minister Michel Barnier on Thursday announced a major concession in a bid to end a standoff with the opposition over the budget, which has caused jitters on financial markets and risks bringing down his minority government. FRANCE 24's Sharon Gaffney speaks to Renaud Foucart, Senior Lecturer in Economics at Lancaster University.
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00:00This is Apropos.
00:03Months of political tensions here in France may be coming to a head.
00:07The far right is threatening to bring down Michel Barnier's minority government in a
00:12no-confidence vote as a row simmers over the budget.
00:16Under pressure from Marine Le Pen, the Prime Minister has announced a major concession,
00:21scrapping plans to introduce a €3bn tax on electricity in a bid to end a stand-off
00:27with the opposition.
00:28Laurent Bristecker has the details.
00:32Hoping to steer France's minority government out of a deepening political crisis, French
00:38Prime Minister Michel Barnier agreed Thursday to scrap plans for an unpopular electricity
00:44tax hike.
00:45Far-right National Rally leader Jordan Bardella welcomed the move, but warned Barnier only
00:51had a few days left to make even more concessions or risk the government's collapse.
00:57The Macron administration and the opposition have for weeks been locked in a tense stand-off
01:02over proposed budget cuts, which the government says are necessary to bring down France's
01:07deficit, but which have been widely criticised by the left and the far right.
01:13France's left-wing parties, which were left out of the ruling coalition despite coming
01:18out on top in September's snap elections, said they would seek a motion of no-confidence
01:23if Barnier tried to force the budget through.
01:26Mr Barnier met with the presidents of the socialists but rejected all their proposals.
01:32So if the government tries to force the budget through, there will be a no-confidence motion
01:38and I will vote for it.
01:40The far-right, which now holds the key to the prime minister's survival, has sought
01:45to capitalise on this position of strength to wring out fresh concessions.
01:50It's threatened to support the motion of no-confidence if the government didn't do more to curb immigration
01:56and lower taxes.
01:58For more on the tense political situation here in France, we're joined by Renaud Foucault,
02:04senior lecturer in economics at Lancaster University in the UK.
02:09Good to have you with us on the programme this evening.
02:12Firstly, in your view, how much danger is Michel Barnier in here?
02:16At the moment, I think it's a very key point for him because Marine Le Pen is herself in
02:22a very difficult situation.
02:24We know that the government is a minority government that only exists because of the
02:29support of the far-right.
02:31But now, Marine Le Pen herself is threatened by a trial for embezzlement of public funds.
02:36So she might lose the right to run for the next presidential election.
02:40So she's now tempted to get as many concessions as possible because she knows that it's not
02:45such a bad outcome for her if the government falls, because then she will be at least in
02:49a position of opposition.
02:51And then on the left, which would be the alternative for Barnier, which would be to have some support
02:55from the centre-left, there have been some moves to try to make him alternative offers.
03:00But at the same time, they are still at the moment busy trying to cancel not only the
03:06pension reform of Emmanuel Macron, but their own pension reform of 2013.
03:10So there is no one who is ready at the moment to have a serious discussion on the budget.
03:16Michel Barnier had to cancel several of his moves to make his own party happy by cancelling
03:22some pension freezing, to make Emmanuel Macron's party happy by moving back on some of the
03:27tax breaks and to make Marine Le Pen happy by cancelling the electricity tax.
03:32So the budget, if it goes through, will already be a budget that is not very ambitious in
03:37bringing France back on track.
03:39And today, the cost of the debt for France is now higher than Greece, which might make
03:44them think twice.
03:45And when it comes to Marine Le Pen, you mentioned her earlier.
03:48She's on trial over charges of embezzlement.
03:50You say the best way for her to survive is probably going to be by voting against the
03:56government in a no-confidence motion.
03:59Is that what you're expecting to see here next week?
04:03If she gets a lot of concessions from Barnier, it will be very difficult for her because
04:07she went supporting the government by saying, we are the responsible party.
04:12But the problem is the trial where she's at the moment going to likely be convicted.
04:17It's not something she can easily claim is the deep states punishing her.
04:22It's something that has happened quite a few times in France.
04:24Alain Juppé was a former prime minister.
04:27He had to cancel his plans to become, to run for president for something similar.
04:32François Bayrou was a very close ally of Emmanuel Macron, justice minister.
04:36His entire career was cancelled for something similar.
04:39Nicolas Sarkozy has been convicted to firm jail sentence for something relatively similar
04:45of taking money from his party to run a political campaign.
04:49So if she wants to have a strong claim that she's pursued by a deep state, she cannot
04:54be at the same time supporting the government.
04:56But no, Barnier is giving her a lot.
04:59Barnier is giving her this cancellation of energy tax.
05:02He's trying to move on something which is very contentious, which is support for medical
05:07aid for migrants.
05:08If he actually goes cancelling that, this is something very dangerous because this means
05:12that against pandemic, against contaminated diseases, there will be less protection simply
05:17because they would stop treating foreigners.
05:20But those are the kind of thing that at the moment he's giving because he really, really
05:24tries to keep this coalition with the far right alive.
05:28And do you expect to see further concessions over the weekend before that potential vote
05:33next week?
05:34For example, Jordan Bardella tweeting about how they want a moratorium on the creation
05:40of new taxes and tax increases generally, the far right also seeking an increase in
05:45state pensions.
05:46So do you think that Barnier is going to move further over the weekend?
05:51He will try to give the far right some more minutes, but those are kind of difficult because
05:56in the end, the only reason why Barnier is there is to bring France back on track for
06:01the budget.
06:02If everything he does is to throw more money at the problems, he's not solving anything.
06:07And if France has a financial collapse, even though the government survives, it's not particularly
06:12useful to him.
06:13So he might give them something, but maybe on other issues like on proportional representation
06:18or some tough discourse about migration, but giving increasing pensions today when the
06:24main problem of France is that so much money is taken by pensions, in particular by wealthy
06:29pensioners receiving state pensions, I think this would be another kind of suicide for
06:34him.
06:35Maybe the government wouldn't collapse, but the French economic situation would collapse.
06:40What does happen, though, if the government does collapse?
06:43Fresh elections can't be called until next summer at the earliest.
06:47Exactly.
06:48So there is no way to get an election now.
06:50So what would happen is that Macron would need to do what he hasn't done yet.
06:54And the centre-left would need to do the same, which is to talk to each other and try to
06:59find a way forward.
07:00So the crazy thing is that the result of the election was quite clear.
07:04It was not a victory of the left.
07:06It was not a victory of the centre.
07:07It was a victory of the Republican Front, everyone who decided to go together to block
07:13the far-right government.
07:15Michel Barnier, the prime minister, his party was not part of that.
07:18So it's really the socialist, the green, the centrist, and it could be the far-left, but
07:22they don't want to be part of that.
07:24But the problem is that right now there has been no attempt to really build that kind
07:29of coalition, which would be much more legitimate.
07:32So if the government falls, they would have to try to do that.
07:35But this means also that the left, who has been very slowly rebuilding, would have to
07:39accept to take responsibility for an extremely difficult budget situation.
07:44And coming back after a few years of slowly rebuilding and having as a first move to have
07:49to cut spending and raise tax, it's not something you want to do spontaneously as a party.
07:55And you mentioned the French president there.
07:57Will he come under a lot of pressure to resign if the government does in fact fall?
08:01We saw a poll this week saying that that is what two in three voters want, if that is
08:07to be what happens next week or in the coming weeks.
08:11Yeah, but there were similar polls before the last presidential election, and it still
08:16won't hit handsomely, because the question is that there is no particular alternative.
08:20If there was an election tomorrow, OK, maybe Le Pen would win, but maybe she might not
08:25be able to run anyway.
08:27But Macron as a president is not in charge of the government.
08:31There has been an election, there has been a result of that election.
08:35And the people who are now in parliament have one chance to show that parliamentary democracy
08:40can work.
08:41Macron resigning wouldn't change anything to that.
08:43And I don't think any reason for him to try to do that now.
08:48And when it comes to Michel Barnier, there's been a lot of talk as well about perhaps he's
08:51thinking about implementing the controversial Article 49.3 if it comes to it.
08:58We saw the previous government do that various times, particularly when it came to that very
09:02controversial pension reform.
09:05Do you think that Barnier is going to end up going down this path?
09:10He will most likely have to do that because the way the law has been amended and reamended
09:16and going through Senate and back, he has to go through that procedure.
09:20And that's why there will be next week a no confidence vote.
09:23So until that, the suspense is, will he give so much to Marine Le Pen that she cannot vote
09:29the no confidence and has to support him or will a no confidence vote go through?
09:34And if the no confidence vote goes through for Marine Le Pen, it means that she most
09:38likely will lead to a centre left government.
09:42And opposition figures, they've been arguing this week that in the event that the government
09:46does collapse, it could still present special laws to levy taxes.
09:52For example, in the new year, they could renew spending by decree to ensure that the country
09:58keeps moving, keeps working, that public servants are able to be paid.
10:02Is that something that is possible, do you believe?
10:06It is possible.
10:07It will depend by how much the financial markets panic.
10:10So one of the main example of what could happen is that if the government falls, the own member
10:15of parliament might lose their salary because the budget will not allow to pay them.
10:19But if there is a quick panic on the financial markets, and we are not very far away from
10:24that at the moment, if there is a panic in financial markets, you will see people moving
10:29very quickly because no one wants to be responsible for a collapse of the French economy.
10:34And I think there is a way for the French, even if the government falls, to stay resilient
10:38with that.
10:39But they would need to find eventually some form of majority of responsibility in parliament.
10:45And if it's not with the far right, it has to be with someone else.
10:48And it really though isn't in any party's interest to bring down the government at this
10:52point though, is it?
10:55Somehow maybe the far left dreams of the government falling to show themselves as the only alternative.
11:01Maybe somehow it's such a crazy moment for Marine Le Pen.
11:04Imagine the party is there for 50 years, for 50 years, it's her father and her keeping
11:09the tradition of running at every single presidential election and seeking power.
11:14And now they could touch it with their finger.
11:16It might be somebody else, Jordan Bardella, who get the job and maybe will betray her.
11:20So those people are maybe instead of panic and might try to make it fall.
11:26But all the others, the party of Michel Barnier, they are tiny in representation.
11:30They've never had so much power.
11:32There's no reason for it to fall.
11:34The centrists of Macron are in a very delicate situation.
11:37They were saved by miracle by the Republican front.
11:40The Socialist Party, the Green, they had very, very good results in the last election and
11:44they might lose everything if there is an election in a few months.
11:48So for them, there is a very strong incentive to continue.
11:51But they need to find a way to do that while not being completely unpopular, despite, again,
11:56the budgetary situation being very, very difficult.
12:00Either way, we're in for an interesting few months.
12:02Renaud, thank you so much for joining us.
12:04That's Renaud Foucault, Senior Lecturer in Economics at Lancaster University.
12:09Well, that's it from us for now.