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00:00So just where, then, does France go from here?
00:05The question on the lips of the people of France
00:08after the fall of Michel Barnier's government
00:10yesterday after just a few short months.
00:13In the next hour or so, Michel Barnier
00:15is set to meet with President Emmanuel Macron, where he's
00:17expected to hand in his resignation.
00:19All the signs pointing to Macron probably announcing
00:22a new prime minister either today or in the next few days.
00:25He's understood to have already spoken
00:27to several potential candidates even before the Barnier
00:31government collapsed.
00:32We're going to cross live, then, to the Elysee Palace,
00:34talk to our senior reporter, Catherine Norris-Trent,
00:37who joins us from there.
00:38Catherine, a very chaotic 24 hours in French politics.
00:42Is it going to calm down at all now?
00:47Well, that's the big question, isn't it?
00:49Good morning to you, Stuart.
00:51Here at the Elysee Palace, we're waiting
00:53to see what the next steps are.
00:57And it could unfurl very quickly.
00:59Indeed, President Macron is hoping, he's said to allies,
01:03to name a new prime minister within 24 hours.
01:06He doesn't want this to turn even
01:09into more of an even more drawn out long political crisis
01:13than it already is.
01:15So what's going to happen here today
01:16is that the outgoing prime minister, Michel Barnier,
01:21whose government fell last night,
01:24is set to arrive here at the Elysee
01:27at around 10 AM French time, where
01:30he will hand in his resignation and that
01:33of his government, which, of course,
01:34lost that no-confidence vote in Parliament.
01:37And you know already that that's a formality.
01:40But what's going on behind the scenes
01:42is likely to tell the next chapter in French politics.
01:47Who can and will Emmanuel Macron name
01:51to be his next prime minister to replace Michel Barnier?
01:54There are quite a few names in the offing as we speak,
01:57but no confirmation.
01:59We do know that the president is due to appear
02:02on French national television news in the prime time
02:05slot at 8 PM tonight.
02:06Whether he'll be announcing a name before then
02:09or during then, what his stance is going to be,
02:11we're going to have to wait and see.
02:14Now, it's likely to be someone probably
02:16from the right or centre of French politics.
02:19It's not thought that he's going to give in
02:21to pressure from the left of the French parliament
02:24to name someone from their bloc, even though it did come out
02:26with the most votes in June snap elections.
02:30It's thought that he's likely to name an ally from the centre
02:34or the right and basically call the bluff of the national rally,
02:38saying, you've voted no confidence in my government
02:41once.
02:42You can't do it again.
02:43But again, we're going to have to wait and see.
02:45Yeah, it does seem strange, doesn't it?
02:46Because if you just name somebody from that bloc,
02:49as you say, it's just going to be more of the same.
02:51And we could be exactly back to the same situation
02:54in a month or so's time.
02:58That's correct.
02:59And whether they can get a budget
03:00through the French parliament, which the French economy
03:03desperately needs right now, its economy
03:05is in pretty dire straits, is another huge question.
03:08But you have to put into that equation the fact
03:11that Marine Le Pen, the leader of the national rally,
03:15has already voted down one government.
03:17And she is walking a very careful line this morning,
03:20Stuart, not to try and alienate some of her voters,
03:24who perhaps think it might have been irresponsible to bring
03:27down the French government at such a time
03:29when it is in financial dire straits.
03:32So will she dare do it again?
03:34That is something that perhaps Macron's new government,
03:37if he stays in place, will have in its favour.
03:41Alongside that, you've got the rumblings, though,
03:43of even people saying, look, to start afresh,
03:46to not have the same situation time and time again.
03:49Macron himself, as president, should resign.
03:52And in a recent survey, 63% of the French public
03:56said they thought Macron should go,
03:57that he's to blame for the current political crisis.
04:00No signs of that on the cards at the moment,
04:02but people are openly saying it now,
04:04especially on the hard left.
04:06Catherine, thanks very much.
04:07Catherine Norris-Trent, our senior reporter
04:09there at the Elysee Palace.
04:10We'll be back with her during the morning,
04:12particularly, of course, as there's new news to bring you.
04:15So do stay with us for that.
04:16Well, with me here on set now is historian of modern France
04:19from Queen Mary University in London, Andrew Smith.
04:22Good to have you with us, Andrew.
04:23A complete coincidence that you happen to be in Paris today.
04:25So great to see you on set.
04:28I was just saying to Catherine, I mean, what chaos?
04:30I mean, watching this as you normally do from the UK,
04:33this must seem a bit like British politics, could I say?
04:37Absolutely.
04:38It's one of these things that, you know,
04:40it was really no surprise that it happened,
04:41but it was shocking that it happened.
04:43It's been a gradual collapse.
04:44We have this, you know, sense that there
04:46is these three blocks, this tripolarity in the assembly,
04:49and there's a real need to find some kind of common ground
04:52between them.
04:53And you always see consistently is this refusal
04:56to give up, refusal to kind of really allow
04:59any kind of concession.
05:00And that's right being from day one
05:02when the new popular front put forward
05:04Izzy Gastet's, of course, and that presented very much
05:07the agenda of the left.
05:08Emmanuel Macron's president said, no,
05:09you can't rework everything that I've tried to do in the past.
05:12And so he said he won't turn to the right.
05:13And so he tried the centre.
05:15But as we've seen, it was unable to secure that support,
05:18even though it had that kind of tacit backing,
05:20as it were, from the far right.
05:22And so, yeah, it seems fairly chaotic.
05:24And really, I think the important thing
05:25is that the dissolution, the censure,
05:28the collapse of the government, it's not a solution.
05:31It's not an end in itself.
05:32It's only the start of another problem.
05:34Yeah, I mean, we would just say with Catherine,
05:36the trouble for him is that he's likely to name, actually,
05:39somebody who's probably a similar candidate to Michel
05:42Barnier.
05:42So aren't we just back in the same situation
05:44that we were before?
05:45Absolutely.
05:46I mean, Jean-Luc MĂ©lenchon said in commentary
05:49that, well, the president could name another three
05:52Macrons every kind of three months
05:53and we'll bump through to the legislative elections.
05:56And there's a big possibility of that.
05:58Of course, we've seen some names,
05:59SĂ©bastien Lecornu, the defence secretary.
06:01You could look at other people like François Bérue,
06:04of course, his big beast centrist ally as well.
06:07But yeah, there's really going to need
06:09to be some sort of concession.
06:12Of course, famously, it was Pierre Mendès-France
06:14that said that to govern is to choose.
06:16But to choose is not simply to magic the world up
06:19as you want it.
06:19It's to rank priorities, to give things up.
06:21And there's really a need for that kind of thing right now.
06:24And so it seems like there are two big options.
06:26One is, as you say, is to continue as is,
06:28to try this model before.
06:30We've already seen Marine Le Pen in the far right
06:32to say, actually, we may be open to crafting a budget
06:36if we have our hand on the steering wheel, as it were.
06:39This is unpalatable for the centre,
06:40especially now that they know they speak
06:42with forked tongue, as it were.
06:43However, they could look to the left as well.
06:45We know that's unlikely.
06:46We've seen that before.
06:47But there are signs coming from the Écolo,
06:49from the more centrist PS, that there is maybe
06:53some work to be done if they could reunite
06:55the Republican arc, if they could rule out
06:5849.3, that kind of government measure in Parliament.
07:01And so there's potentially something to be done there.
07:03That's much less likely, I think.
07:05And as you say, much more likely, we'll see
07:07the same song again, I think.
07:09Well, stay with us.
07:10Let's look at some of the candidates now in this report.
07:17In uncharted territory, Emmanuel Macron
07:20is under pressure to act fast.
07:22He could name a technocratic government
07:24to hold the fort until next July,
07:26when fresh elections can be held.
07:28Or he could reappoint Bernier at the helm
07:31of a caretaker government.
07:32But to move the needle at the Assembly,
07:34the president may seek new blood.
07:37The name SĂ©bastien Lecornu has been on many lips.
07:39His political DNA is right-wing Republican,
07:42but he's served as defence minister
07:43under Michel Barnier, Gabriel Attal and Elisabeth Borne,
07:47weathering many a storm and becoming part
07:49of Macron's inner circle.
07:51But how would he break the parliamentary deadlock?
07:54Then there's Bruno Rotaillot, also from the Republican Party,
07:57appointed interior minister in September
07:59with a promise to restore order and toughen up on migration.
08:03His appointment will be a sharp right turn,
08:05but he might command the votes of those 125 national rally
08:08MPs who have held the Barnier government to ransom.
08:13François Bayrou, on the other hand,
08:14president of the democratic movement
08:16and a staunch ally of the president,
08:18has been mooted as a centrist option.
08:20But can a member of the presidential coalition
08:22shift the balance in parliament?
08:24Or might Emmanuel Macron look left,
08:26former socialist Bernard Cazeneuve is in the mix,
08:29a man who quit the party immediately
08:30when united with other left-wing forces for the 2022 elections
08:34and who denounced the formation of the New Popular Front
08:36coalition this year, a shift right that
08:39cost him the support of left-wing lawmakers.
08:42Lucie Castille, who was the New Popular Front pick
08:44over the summer, stands, in her own words, ready to govern.
08:47But the president didn't entertain the idea for long
08:50even then.
08:51Emmanuel Macron held nearly two months of talks this summer
08:54before appointing a prime minister,
08:56but an overturned government must leave
08:58and France expects a budget by the end of the year.
09:02Yandere, it's strange watching those names go through
09:04because you look at each name and you think,
09:06whichever one he picks, it's going to annoy two thirds
09:09of the parliament, isn't it?
09:11Yeah, it's the search for a Goldilocks government
09:13in a parliament of bears.
09:14There is not much in terms of viable options.
09:18And so it's a real challenge.
09:21The creativity may be to look left.
09:23It might be to try something new.
09:25We know that when Macron didn't appoint Lucie Castille,
09:27he said it would be a government that would fall instantly.
09:30Well, what's to lose except that record
09:32for how long it lasts?
09:34So there's something, there's an option there to try.
09:37It would make sense as well to go back
09:39to that same government, that same coalition effectively
09:42in trying an old hand.
09:44You mentioned Bruno Retailleau there.
09:46His politics looked maybe palatable
09:48to some on the far right.
09:49Maybe they might get some support there.
09:51But if anything, I think the far right have shown,
09:54they've tried, they were encouraged after the vote
09:57not to applaud, not to seem triumphalist,
09:59not to seem like they'd won anything.
10:01To try and present it as a kind of justifiable motion,
10:03this long attempt to seem reasonable.
10:06But I think what they've shown again
10:07is that they are not actors that can be dealt with,
10:09that can be trusted, that can work with in parliament.
10:11And actually one of the reasons the Barnier government fell
10:14is because of that reliance on the extreme right.
10:16And I think that's really got to be a message to Macron
10:18and that this cannot be a coalition that works.
10:21It's never going to find its own kind of,
10:24its own little notch in parliament.
10:27It can't work like that, I think.
10:28There's one other big elephant in the room, if you like.
10:31What does all this mean for Emmanuel Macron?
10:33I mean, what he did in the summer
10:35obviously doesn't seem to have worked.
10:37And a lot of people say it's been a disaster
10:39for him and for his party.
10:41But also, does it mean he has to go?
10:43Well, I think, first of all,
10:44it doesn't mean he has to go for sure.
10:46There is no constitutional imperative that says,
10:48all of a sudden, the president has to pack his bags.
10:51Of course, because the last time the government fell,
10:53we had in 1962, that was, of course,
10:56when the referendum to secure the direct election
10:57of the presidency took place.
10:59And so that means that there is this kind of direct channel,
11:01this direct connection.
11:02He has been elected.
11:03He's still within his mandate.
11:04He can weather this out.
11:06He may not want to, but he has essentially,
11:09he's exhausted his main kind of weapon
11:12in his arsenal at the minute, the dissolution.
11:14We can't have another one of those
11:15until another election in June, July.
11:17We can't see that coming out.
11:19So it's really got to be something
11:20that finds a way around this,
11:22whether it be, again, some kind of technocratic measure
11:24in the meantime, whether it be a new,
11:26reliable government that works,
11:27or something like that as well.
11:29For Macron, it is damaging,
11:31but he will seek to present this as blockages in parliament
11:34and try consistently to present himself
11:36as the person that can find a way through those blockages.
11:38We know on the plane back from Saudi Arabia,
11:40he talked about his success in Notre Dame,
11:42his success with the Olympics.
11:43Domestic politics, that's a problem with the assembly.
11:46And I think that's how he's going to try
11:47and run it here as well.
11:48He needs a prime minister who can command a majority.
11:51The Fed Republic, we talk about its structures,
11:53but ultimately, what is it?
11:54It's 289 MPs, it's a majority,
11:57but we've actually demolished, he's demolished,
11:59the PS and the LR's grip on those majorities.
12:02And so now, it's a challenging situation for him
12:05to find that new way through this blockage.
12:09Andrew Smith, great to have you with us here on set
12:11from, he's a historian of modern France
12:13from Queen Mary University in London.
12:16Well, of course, it's also a bit of a headache
12:18for Europe as well.
12:19A little earlier, we spoke to our correspondent
12:21in Brussels, Dave Keating.
12:24This is very scary for the EU,
12:26because now you have both France and Germany
12:30in this period of rudderless leadership,
12:33political chaos we have in Germany.
12:35They've really kind of been absent from the EU stage
12:37for a long time under the leadership of Olaf Scholz
12:40over the past three years,
12:41and now he's been forced to call a snap election in February.
12:45And so with that uncertainty in the EU's two main countries,
12:49the Franco-German motor, as it's called,
12:51this does not put the EU as a whole
12:53in a very strong position.
12:54Separately, you also have the economic concerns.
12:57So this political chaos has actually forced markets
13:00to downgrade France's bonds down to Greek levels
13:05because of the chaos that's happening.
13:07And that, of course, is spurring concerns
13:09over a new Eurozone crisis
13:12because of France's very, very high deficits,
13:15about 6% of GDP, extremely high.
13:19The European Commission put France
13:20under an excessive deficit procedure earlier this year.
13:23In a way, that's what kind of sparked this crisis
13:26because Barnier's budget had to respond to that procedure.
13:29It had to address the commission's concerns
13:32about the French deficit,
13:33but the measures that he was taking
13:36to address those concerns were deeply unpopular
13:39with the far left and the far right,
13:40and that's why we've seen what happened last night.
13:44The issue is whoever replaces him
13:47is probably not going to be able
13:48to put in the kinds of budget reforms
13:50that are now required by the EU.
13:53So how does the EU respond to that?
13:55It's a very delicate situation,
13:57and it's worth pointing out that this is why
13:58the commission delayed putting France
14:00under this excessive deficit procedure for so long.
14:03France often gets different standards applied to France
14:07than are applied to other countries because it's France,
14:09because it's such a big, important country,
14:11and this is an example why.
14:13The commission doesn't want to be seen
14:15as causing this political chaos in France,
14:18as causing these cuts to Social Security,
14:19cuts to pensions, changes to pension rules.
14:22So it's going to be a delicate dance for the commission
14:25over the coming month as it responds to this.