Since the fall of Assad, western capitals have been voicing concern about the risk of ISIS militants exploiting the political vacuum in Syria. Thousands of former militants are currently being detained in prisons and camps controlled by the Kurds. We speak to Matt Broomfield, co-founder of the Rojava Information Centre. He says that for years Kurdish leaders' calls to Western nations for the repatriation of jihadists went unheeded and now their warnings have come to fruition.
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00:00Since the fall of Assad, Western capitals have been voicing concern about the risk of
00:09Islamic State militants exploiting the political vacuum in Syria.
00:14Earlier today, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the role of American-backed Kurdish-led
00:20forces was critical to preventing a resurgence of ISIS jihadists.
00:24Thousands of former militants are currently being detained in prisons and camps controlled
00:29by Kurdish fighters.
00:30Emily Boyle has more.
00:38As the dust settles after the fall of the Assad regime, a new front has opened up in
00:43northeastern Syria, where Turkish-backed rebels of the Syrian National Army have made the
00:49most of the instability in the region and have attacked and seized towns previously
00:54under Kurdish control.
00:55There are major concerns among the Kurds, alongside the fact that the Turkish state
01:02supports these factions and backs this project, exerting pressure for its expansion in these
01:08areas.
01:10Turkey also has factions fighting battles to this day in Manbij and Kobani, all of which
01:14align with the same context we're discussing.
01:21Kurdish and Arab units fighting under the banner of the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic
01:25Forces have been forced to pause their efforts against the jihadist group to concentrate
01:30on Turkish-backed attacks, prompting fears of a resurgence of the terrorist organisation
01:36in the region.
01:37Indeed, we can definitely see that Daesh has become stronger, especially in the Syrian
01:43desert.
01:44They were hiding before, but now they are operating openly on the ground.
01:49A few days ago, they killed three of our comrades in Nasaka.
01:54We know that their plan is to attack Jeveran prison and Al-Hol camp.
02:01The Al-Hol camp has been called an incubator for the return of the Islamic State.
02:07Approximately 50,000 former IS fighters, women and children are detained in prisons and camps
02:13controlled by the Kurds, mostly from Iraq and Syria.
02:16We want to avoid sparking any kinds of additional conflicts inside of Syria at a time when we
02:23want to see this transition to an interim government and to a better way forward for
02:28Syria.
02:29And part of that also has to be ensuring that ISIS doesn't rear its ugly head again.
02:35And critical to making sure that doesn't happen is the so-called SDF, the Syrian Democratic
02:40Forces that we've been supporting.
02:43He has repeatedly argued that the SDF are linked to independence movements in its own
02:48country.
02:49Syria's Kurdish groups say they want to be an autonomous part of Syria, though their
02:54relationship with the new leaders in Damascus remains unclear.
03:00To discuss all of this, we're joined now by Matt Brimfield.
03:03He's a freelance journalist and also the co-founder of the Syria-based Rojava Information Centre.
03:09Thanks so much for being with us, Matt.
03:11Firstly, lots of fears here in Europe about the resurgence of Islamic State, potentially.
03:18More warnings today that they are starting to take advantage of the chaos on the ground
03:23in Syria.
03:24What is the actual situation as far as you're aware?
03:27Well, I mean, I think Syrian Kurdish leaders and officials are rightfully going to be quite
03:32frustrated because they've been warning about this situation for years and years.
03:36They've been reminding their Western partners there are still these 50,000 ISIS-linked individuals,
03:41including maybe 1,000 Western male former armed fighters and around 10,000 former armed
03:46fighters from Iraq and Syria.
03:48They haven't gone anywhere.
03:49They've been calling on the West to repatriate their own nationals, but even more importantly
03:53to call on Turkey to refrain from its attacks on the region, which have repeatedly caused
03:59such destabilization and allowed ISIS to continue rebuilding and regrouping.
04:05And now all those warnings are coming to fruition.
04:09The particular threat comes from these camps, but there is also an increase of ISIS activity
04:13in the Syrian desert that's been detected just in the past week as well.
04:16And in those camps, it's not just former fighters, there's also women, there are a lot of children.
04:21What do you think is going to happen to them?
04:23Well, that's right.
04:26I mean, I think there's understandably perhaps a particular focus in the West on the Western
04:32nationals, the British nationals, the French nationals, the European nationals who are
04:35held there.
04:36That's an issue.
04:38But there are, of course, also tens of thousands of local children there.
04:43Most of the people in this main camp, Al-Hol, are under the age of 16.
04:47And of course, on the one hand, they're going to face the same fate as millions of other
04:51people across this autonomous Kurdish-led region of Turkey invades, which is airstrikes,
04:57displacement, chaos.
04:58But of course, in their case, there is the further extremely high likelihood that the
05:03very, very radicalized male and female ISIS leaders who are being held there will be able
05:08to do what they've been threatening and escape and begin rebuilding their caliphate or perhaps
05:14more likely sowing more chaos in an uncertain and increasingly militarized future for Syria.
05:20And Matt, this week we've seen a lot of focus on the new government, interim leaders appointed
05:25in Syria about the situation for asylum seekers and would-be asylum seekers.
05:31But there are also clashes still happening on the ground in parts of Syria.
05:35Talk to us a little bit about what exactly is happening and where.
05:39That's right.
05:40Yeah, I mean, it's a real tragedy because the Syrian people deserve peace.
05:43They deserve a chance to build a new Syria.
05:45And most people in Syria and indeed most armed and political forces in Syria want that.
05:51The Kurdish-led administration has expressed its willingness to work with the new leadership
05:56in Damascus.
05:57And indeed, there have been some indications of restraint between HTS, who've now taken
06:02over in Damascus, and the Kurdish-led forces.
06:05There are negotiations indirectly underway through the Americans.
06:08And the vision there in theory would be for a sort of pan-Syrian, some kind of pan-Syrian
06:13agreement based on further negotiations and discussions.
06:17Unfortunately, Turkey doesn't see it that way.
06:20Turkey is hell-bent on liquidating this project in Kurdish-led autonomy south of its border.
06:26That's Turkey's number one objective in Syria, Turkey's number one foreign policy objective.
06:32And with the changes on the ground, Turkey's been able to move very quickly to become the
06:36most dominant external state in Syria and to both launch waves of airstrikes against
06:42the Kurdish-led regions and also to send its own militiamen, many of whom have never fired
06:47a shot in anger against Assad, to attack the Kurdish security forces, Kurdish civilians
06:52and this Kurdish-Arab coalition with the aim of driving them out from across the border.
06:58We've seen tens of thousands, possibly hundreds of thousands of people displaced already in
07:02this ongoing Turkish offensive, which is a real tragedy as Syrians seek to turn the page
07:07and begin a new life together.
07:10And talk to us a little bit more about the predicament that the Kurds are facing in Syria.
07:14As you say, they never fully sided with Assad, nor the rebels.
07:19So what exactly does the future hold for them?
07:21Are they going to have a place in post-Assad Syria, do you think?
07:29The new administration in Damascus has said that it wants to respect minority rights.
07:33It said that it is going to respect basic rights for women.
07:37It said that it's going to listen to the Syrian people.
07:40It said it's going to respect the rule of law.
07:42It remains to be seen whether HTS, this former al-Qaeda offshoot, is going to follow through
07:47on all of those promises.
07:48We, of course, those watching Syria, those living in Syria, hope that they will.
07:51But it shouldn't be forgotten that there's a model which does all of those things in
07:54north and east Syria.
07:55The federation there is by no means perfect, but throughout the Syrian conflict, it's been
08:00an island of relative stability, relative peace, relative rule of law, women's participation
08:05to a level never before seen in Syrian society.
08:08These are all positive things which this federation can contribute in a new Syrian
08:14settlement, however that might turn out.
08:17Unfortunately, it's not just up to Syrians and Turkey.
08:21It is waiting hungrily over the border, looking for any opportunity it can to expand its own
08:27presence and control in Syria and to drive out the Kurds.
08:31Would it mean, do you think, accepting at some point a degree of Kurdish autonomy in
08:35the east of Syria?
08:38That's right.
08:39So, I mean, there is, as we speak now, there is autonomy in the northeast for this federation
08:43numbering around four million people at the moment.
08:45That federation is actually majority Arab, so Arabs, Kurds, local minorities, Christians
08:49and Yazidis working together.
08:53There might be some changes.
08:54There will certainly be some changes to that.
08:55We might see some of these very conservative rural Arab populations preferring to throw
08:59their lot in with HTS.
09:02I believe that the Kurdish administration will be open to that so long as there are
09:07particularly protections for Kurds and for minorities.
09:11At the same time, you know, their vision is not for a Syria divided up along ethnic lines.
09:15It's not for population exchanges.
09:17And I think that would also be a sad outcome.
09:19It's for Syria's Kurds, Arabs and the other populations living there to find a way to
09:23live together.
09:24They're all Syrians.
09:25The same flag is flying across all of Syria tonight, but sadly there are still armed campaigns
09:32going on aimed at driving the Syrian Kurds and Arabs out from their cities in the northeast.
09:36And there's some further uncertainty on the horizon in the form of Donald Trump.
09:41He's been sceptical about US involvement in Syria.
09:44There's nearly a thousand American troops there currently in the east of the country.
09:49They're partnering, as you know, with Kurdish forces to prevent that ISIS resurgence.
09:54But is that mission under threat from January?
09:59It's under profound threat.
10:00I mean, I was based in Syria for several years, including in 2019, when, as people might remember,
10:06Donald Trump sought to pull those US troops out of the Kurdish regions and that immediately
10:12opened the way in a matter of days to a devastating Turkish invasion, airstrikes across the border,
10:17the death of hundreds of civilians, the displacement of hundreds of thousands of civilians.
10:21That was eventually halted following intense internal pressure from the Pentagon in America
10:28who urged Donald Trump to recognize that this was not a sensible policy.
10:33This didn't serve American interests.
10:34This was only going to sow more instability in the Middle East and therefore hand a boon
10:39to many countries who are not particularly friendly to America.
10:43With Donald Trump coming back and having already signaled that he doesn't understand or see
10:47the importance for this US presence in the region, it's very likely that Erdogan is hoping
10:53he can complete what he started in 2019 and get the green light to complete that sweep
10:58south of the border and the displacement of the Kurds and all that they've tried to build
11:03and all of the efforts they've put in to defend the West from ISIS in the coming, possibly
11:09even weeks.
11:10And just finally, Matt, we saw today as well the interim leaders in Syria promising, you
11:16know, to make changes to suspend parliament and the constitution for three months.
11:21If we look a little bit further ahead, what are you expecting, are you expecting elections
11:25or what do you think is going to happen in terms of when that interim government might
11:30give way to something else, something more permanent?
11:35I think, I mean, I think it's very hard to say.
11:38HDS have been doing a very good job of communicating to the outside world in particular, but also
11:44to minorities and communities within Syria that they are willing to engage in some degree
11:50of moderation of their approach.
11:52But when we can look at the situation in Idlib, where HDS have ruled millions of Syrians for
11:58the past few years, they have moderated on some points, there have been less of the sort
12:03of executions which HDS has previously committed, even for apostasy, witchcraft.
12:10In the past, there have been less of the violent attacks on minorities that HDS has conducted.
12:16But at the same time, the government in Idlib, of course, remains deeply authoritarian and
12:19deeply conservative interpretation of Islam.
12:22There's no room for criticism, freedom of expression.
12:24There's not much freedom for women, thousands of journalists and opposition figures jailed
12:29within Idlib itself.
12:30So right now, Syrians are, of course, celebrating the fall of Assad.
12:36And there is, of course, a general sense that HDS are in a position to provide something
12:41better to Syrians than what was under Bashar Assad, but it will need firstly consistent
12:46pressure and engagement from regional states, also from Western states, and it will also
12:51need the participation of all Syrians, including the Federation in the Northeast, to make that
12:56a possibility.
12:57Matt, thank you so much for all of that analysis and that insight.
13:01Thank you so much for being with us this evening.
13:02That's Matt Broomfield.
13:03He's co-founder of the Syria-based Rojava Information Centre.
13:07Do stay with us.
13:08We'll be back.