日経サタデー ニュースの疑問 2024年12月14日 シリア政権崩壊で米露イスラエルの対応は？
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00:00TANAKA KOICHIRO, PROFESSOR, KEIO UNIVERSITY
00:04TANAKA KOICHIRO, PROFESSOR, KEIO UNIVERSITY
00:08TANAKA KOICHIRO, PROFESSOR, KEIO UNIVERSITY
00:12Good morning.
00:14This is the news on December 14th.
00:17Let me introduce today's guest.
00:21This is Professor Koichiro Tanaka,
00:24a professor at Keio University specializing in medieval painting.
00:29This is Professor Taisuke Abiru,
00:32a professor at Sasakawa Peace Foundation specializing in foreign policy and security.
00:40This is Professor Tetsuo Kotani,
00:43a professor at Meikai University specializing in security in the United States.
00:49Let's take a look at today's headlines.
00:54Here they are.
00:57Today's topic is the history of the Middle East,
01:01which will change after the collapse of the Assad regime.
01:04I didn't expect the dictatorial regime to collapse so easily,
01:10but I'd like to dig deeper into what impact it will have on the Middle East,
01:15and what impact it will have on the world's power balance.
01:20What will happen next?
01:22There is a catchphrase,
01:25a laughing country and a crying country.
01:28This time, the situation in the Middle East
01:32is divided into two countries,
01:35which I'd like to sort out today.
01:39And last week,
01:41as I mentioned in the special,
01:43the South Korean situation.
01:45Last week, on this Saturday afternoon,
01:48there was a resumption of diplomatic relations,
01:50but it didn't take place.
01:52Today, however, it will be resumed.
01:54This time, it seems that more than 10 members of the House of Representatives
01:58will participate in the negotiations.
02:00This is the latest situation.
02:03It seems that the resumption of diplomatic relations will be resumed.
02:07This is what experts say.
02:10Mr. Kotani, what are you paying attention to?
02:13First of all,
02:15the resumption of diplomatic relations will be resumed
02:18if more than 8 members of the House of Representatives
02:21vote in favor of the resumption of diplomatic relations.
02:26However, even if the resumption of diplomatic relations is resumed,
02:29the judiciary will need to make a decision.
02:33We still don't know what the decision will be.
02:36Will the trial be held within 180 days?
02:39That's right.
02:41I think there is a possibility that the chaos in each country will continue.
02:46However, from the second paragraph of this bill,
02:49the paragraph that criticizes the improvement of relations with Japan
02:53and the deterioration of relations between China and North Korea
02:56was omitted.
02:59At first, it was said that it was included in the reason for the resumption of diplomatic relations.
03:03That's right.
03:05It's a bit reassuring that it was omitted.
03:08However, if the resumption of diplomatic relations is resumed
03:11and there is a change in the government,
03:14the current investment in the government will be difficult for Japan.
03:17Therefore, the situation with Japan may continue to be difficult.
03:20What does Mr. Trump think about this situation?
03:23Mr. Trump is still in the Senate,
03:26but I think that if the Korean president is a conservative president,
03:29he can do it well.
03:32However, if he becomes progressive,
03:35I think there is a possibility that he will make the situation more difficult.
03:38Yes.
03:40After the commercial break, we will have a special report.
03:43How will the Middle East change with the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria?
03:50At the end of November,
03:52the opposition started a large-scale attack in Syria.
03:55In just 10 days, the capital city was occupied.
03:58On the 8th, the Assad regime collapsed.
04:01The leader of the HTS Sharm Liberation Organization, Mr. Jaurani,
04:04who became the center of the opposition,
04:07said,
04:10This is Egypt, my brothers.
04:13It is a new history for the blind nation.
04:16In just 11 days,
04:19Syria will be liberated from its north to its south
04:22and from its east to its west.
04:25The opposition, which had collapsed the Assad regime,
04:28led a tentative government on the 10th.
04:31He appointed the head of the Syrian state government,
04:34Mr. Bashir,
04:37who is in charge of Idlib,
04:40as the base of the opposition.
04:43He also held his first conference.
04:46It is a tentative government until March 1 next year.
04:53However, the opposition is not only HTS.
04:57There are multiple groups,
05:00such as Turkish and Kurdish organizations,
05:03and the focus of the future is
05:06whether HTS, which is mainly composed of Syrians,
05:09can be put together.
05:14HTS, which is also led by the opposition,
05:17is led by the international terrorist organization Al-Qaeda,
05:20and is recognized as an organization
05:23that promotes the rule of Syria.
05:32What will happen to the Middle East
05:35when Syria collapses?
05:38Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu
05:41praised the collapse of the Assad regime
05:44as a historic day,
05:47but also expressed that it was necessary
05:50to prevent the collapse of the Assad regime.
05:53Israel has carried out more than 350 air strikes
05:56in Damascus and other cities,
05:59and has crossed the border with Syria
06:02and is engaged in military activities
06:05within the Syrian territory.
06:08President Erdogan of Turkey,
06:11who opposed the Assad regime
06:14and supported the opposition,
06:17has said that he will open the border
06:20for the return of about 3 million Syrian refugees.
06:27On December 12,
06:30he met with US Secretary of State Blinken
06:33and held a conference on the stabilization of Syria.
06:36How will it work in the future?
06:41On the other hand,
06:44how will Russia respond?
06:47It is said that the collapse of the regime
06:50was due to the fact that the Assad regime
06:53was not sufficiently supported
06:56by the long-term Ukrainian invasion.
06:59Russia's naval and air bases are left in Syria,
07:02and Russia is said to be in contact
07:05with the pro-Syrian regime
07:08in search of a base.
07:12Will Russia's influence remain?
07:19And how will the United States deal with it?
07:23President Biden welcomed the collapse of the Assad regime
07:26and showed support for the stabilization of the situation.
07:34President Trump said that
07:37the United States should not intervene
07:40in the situation of Syria.
07:45What will the Trump administration do?
07:52Today, we will deepen our discussion
07:55on these three themes.
07:58First, let's look at the first one,
08:01which is to rule over new Syria.
08:04Let's review the anti-Syrian movement.
08:07The movement, which is based on the HTS Charm
08:10Liberation Organization,
08:13began its advance from Idlib in northwestern Syria
08:16on the 27th of last month.
08:19It has taken over the capital Damascus
08:22on the 8th of this month.
08:25President Assad and his family
08:28emigrated to Russia on the same day.
08:31On the 9th of this month,
08:34President Assad and his family
08:37established a temporary government
08:40until the 1st of March next year.
08:43The leader of the former Syrian government,
08:46Mohammad Bashir,
08:49was appointed as the prime minister.
08:52On the 12th of this month,
08:55the temporary government was announced
08:58to suspend the constitution
09:02The temporary government was established,
09:05but I would like to discuss whether or not
09:08the government will be able to rule over Syria.
09:11Mr. Tanaka, what do you think?
09:17I think it is possible to give a certain assessment
09:20that the Syrian government
09:23has entered Damascus.
09:26On the other hand,
09:29the Syrian government
09:32is an armed group
09:35that has been fighting against Assad
09:38for a long time.
09:41I think the question is
09:44how to coordinate with other groups
09:47that have been fighting against Assad
09:50in Syria.
09:53It is a multi-ethnic country,
09:56so I think the question is
09:59whether the Syrian government
10:02will be able to take a flexible stance
10:05and maintain its unity.
10:11Let's look at the map.
10:14There are many different groups
10:17in the anti-Syrian government.
10:20As Mr. Tanaka said,
10:23the main organization
10:26is HTS.
10:29HTS is based in the northwestern part of Syria.
10:32Other than that,
10:35the blue-colored group
10:38is the Syrian Democratic Army,
10:41which is supported by Kurdish forces.
10:44The Syrian National Army,
10:47which is supported by Turkey,
10:50is also supported by Kurdish forces.
10:53Do you think the Syrian government
10:56will be able to maintain its unity?
10:59Yes.
11:02The Kurdish forces
11:05have been suppressing
11:08the northeastern part of Syria
11:11for the past 10 years.
11:14The U.S. has been supporting
11:17the Kurdish forces for 10 years.
11:20The Kurdish forces
11:23are dominating the area.
11:26The central government
11:29has to control the area
11:32in order to suppress the Kurdish forces.
11:35The Kurdish forces
11:38have been suppressing the area
11:41for the past 10 years.
11:44From Russia's point of view,
11:47Russia has been supporting Assad
11:50for a long time.
11:53At some point,
11:56Putin decided that
11:59he couldn't support Assad anymore.
12:02I think Putin changed his mind.
12:05I think Russia played a role
12:08in persuading Assad
12:11to join the Syrian government.
12:14At the same time,
12:17Russia quickly accepted Assad
12:20as a political ally.
12:23I think Russia played a big role
12:26in the change of government.
12:29I think Russia played a big role
12:32in the change of government.
12:35I think Russia played a big role
12:38in the change of government.
12:41I think Russia played a big role
12:44in the change of government.
12:47I think Russia played a big role
12:50in the change of government.
12:53I think Russia played a big role
12:56in the change of government.
12:59I think Russia played a big role
13:02in the change of government.
13:06Mr. Kotani, what do you think?
13:09I think it's important to understand
13:12how these three major organizations
13:15will be organized in the future.
13:18I think it's important to understand
13:21how these three major organizations
13:24will be organized in the future.
13:27The reason why the United States
13:30supported Kurdish organizations
13:33This could lead to Syria's chaos, and the ISIS could expand its influence even further.
13:42I think this is a problem that not only America, but the international community should be concerned about.
13:50I'll talk about this in more detail later.
13:52But this time, Turkey's position is quite influential.
13:56And from President Erdogan's point of view, the Kurdish forces are in a hostile situation.
14:02I think he's going to try to get rid of them.
14:07At that time, the Trump administration will take over.
14:13Will he still try to protect this part?
14:17I'm told that there are about 900 troops in Syria now.
14:21What will happen to America?
14:25President Trump has already said that he will withdraw troops from Syria.
14:32I don't know if that means he's going to withdraw 900 troops.
14:39But I'm sure he's lost a lot of interest in Syria.
14:44The reason the U.S. military is here is to suppress ISIS.
14:50If President Trump understands that, he may need the presence of the U.S. military.
14:57But if no one is willing to support him, he may withdraw.
15:04Mr. Jaurani, who is in charge of this initiative,
15:09I'd like to see how much of a commanding ability you have.
15:13In 2011, the HTS, Sharm al-Kaida, was founded by Al-Qaeda.
15:19The Islamic extremist Nusra Front moved forward.
15:23In 2016, it was separated from Al-Qaeda.
15:26In 2017, HTS was formed with organizations from other regions.
15:31HTS was designated a terrorist organization by the United States.
15:35Mr. Jaurani was fined up to $10 million by the information provider.
15:41Mr. Tanaka, so far, we've seen HTS take a lot of balance.
15:47We've seen it take a lot of control.
15:52How much of that can we trust?
15:56That's a difficult question.
15:58Mr. Jaurani's real name is Shara.
16:02What he's paying attention to is that he's trying not to stimulate the West,
16:07or the United States, in a strange way.
16:11I think he's worried that if he gives a new indication of intervention,
16:17he himself or the next government will not stand up to it.
16:25The problem is that he's originally an Islamist.
16:28He's an Islamist, so whether he's a terrorist or not,
16:32he's at least an Islamist.
16:38He's also a member of that group.
16:41The previous Assad regime was a class-based regime.
16:46Compared to that, I don't think he can avoid the rise of religion.
16:53Mr. Jaurani, you're saying that he's originally an Al-Qaeda member.
16:58Of course, from an American point of view,
17:01he's thinking about the so-called mass terrorism in the world.
17:06But how do you think the United States will support this organization?
17:15In the Biden administration,
17:17there has already been a debate about whether or not to lift the terrorist designation.
17:23However, lifting the terrorist designation poses a significant political risk.
17:30Above all, he's an Al-Qaeda member who committed 911 crimes.
17:34I think it's a very difficult problem whether the Biden administration
17:39will be able to decide on this in the remaining 40 days.
17:42The Biden administration's position is not about the actions of HTS so far,
17:48but about the actions from now on.
17:52Mr. Trump has only seen the past.
17:55I think the possibility of lifting the terrorist designation is very low
18:00just because he's an Al-Qaeda member.
18:03In order for the United States to be involved in this problem,
18:06I think it will be very important whether or not Mr. Biden
18:10will be able to lift the terrorist designation in the remaining 40 days.
18:13G7 has issued a statement.
18:16This means that it is ready to support the administration
18:21in a comprehensive and non-regulated framework.
18:25Mr. Kotani, what do you mean by this?
18:30Based on what has happened so far,
18:34the way G7 intervenes in the future will change.
18:40That's the message they're sending out.
18:43I think HTS is just showing a superficial position
18:48to get international support.
18:53I think they're trying to make sure that's not the case.
18:58I'd like you to sum it up.
19:01If you follow the past,
19:03there are many things that have not gone in the right direction
19:06after the collapse of the dictatorship.
19:09After the collapse of the dictatorship,
19:12there has been a period of turmoil.
19:15In Iraq, after the Fusayn regime was defeated by the U.S. military in 2003,
19:19the confrontation between religious groups
19:22that had been sealed off by the U.S. military
19:25was intensified and terrorism was rampant.
19:28And after the Arab Spring,
19:30there has been turmoil in Libya and Egypt.
19:33Furthermore, in Sudan,
19:35President Bashir was deposed in 2019
19:38and the confrontation between religious groups has intensified.
19:41Mr. Abe, every time the dictatorship collapses,
19:44people get excited and say,
19:46wow, it's going to get better.
19:48But after that, there's a lot of turmoil.
19:50What do you think about that?
19:52Well, for Russia,
19:54the collapse of the Gaddafi regime in Libya
19:56had a very big impact,
19:58and it actually caused the Syrian civil war.
20:01In that sense,
20:03there is still some hope
20:06But what I'm saying is,
20:08unlike the collapse of Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq,
20:11this time, the new leaders of the HDS
20:15have experience of ruling the Assad regime,
20:22and they are also joining the regime.
20:27So from Russia's perspective,
20:29in that sense,
20:31the West has a certain hurdle
20:34when it comes to establishing relations with Russia.
20:36But in fact, Russia
20:38doesn't care much about human rights or religion.
20:44For example, the relationship with Afghanistan's Taliban
20:48was actually established by Russia.
20:52In that sense,
20:54Russia's relationship with the HDS
20:56or the Syrian new government
20:58that has now joined the Assad regime
21:01is now one step ahead of the West.
21:08That's how I see it.
21:10Mr. Tanaka, what do you think?
21:12There has been a lot of turmoil in the past,
21:14but there have been many cases of civil war
21:16and terrorist attacks.
21:18What do you think about that?
21:20Well, I think Syria is still in that situation.
21:24The worst thing is,
21:26as you can see on this map,
21:28the cases of military intervention from outside
21:30and the collapse of the regime
21:32are getting worse and worse.
21:34So if you look at this map,
21:36you can see the Libya and Iraq cases.
21:40But the real problem is
21:42how much the foreign forces
21:44supported the movement
21:46against the regime in Syria.
21:48In the framework of the Syrian people,
21:52there is an international consensus
21:54on what to do next,
21:56and if we can create an international framework
21:58that can effectively implement it,
22:00we may be able to avoid
22:02falling into a state of chaos
22:04in a short period of time.
22:06But if that doesn't work,
22:08I think it will be very dangerous.
22:12After the commercial break,
22:14let's take a look at some of the countries
22:16that are laughing and crying
22:18at the collapse of the Assad regime.
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