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00:00Let's bring in Melinda Harding, who is a senior community engagement advisor at RASOM for
00:05Ukraine and a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center.
00:11Thanks so much for joining us on the program, Melinda.
00:13It's great to have you.
00:14Tell us why in your mind you think that Ukraine went after this top commander, and do you
00:19think that his killing will change anything on the ground?
00:24It's great to be here.
00:25This is not the first Russian general who's been killed over the last three years since
00:30the big war began in Ukraine, but this is the first general who's been killed in Russia
00:36far from the front lines.
00:38Will it change anything?
00:39No, but it sends a message to Russians that the war is not as far as they may think and
00:45that high-level Russian military officials cannot hide from the Ukrainian side.
00:50And of course, Ukrainian agents have killed this top commander in the Russian capital
00:55on Russian soil.
00:56How much of an embarrassment is this for the Kremlin to have this security breach?
01:02It's a big-time embarrassment.
01:04It's shocking, actually.
01:06We've seen a series, though, if it's a pattern, we've seen a series in the last couple of
01:10weeks of other Russian military officials either being hit by cars or dying in circumstances
01:17that don't make sense.
01:18So I expect to see more of this behavior from the Ukrainian SBU.
01:23And of course, General Kurilov was prominent not only in terms of military-wise, he was
01:29also prominent in terms of Russia's propaganda over the war in Ukraine.
01:34And his death comes at a time when Russian morale is already very low.
01:39Tell us what impact it's going to have in terms of propaganda and morale among the Russian
01:45public.
01:46That's right.
01:47So this general was sort of notorious for going on Russian state TV and stirring the
01:51pot and propagating Russian lies.
01:56So it will definitely have an impact on that, but I have to say there's no shortage of Russian
02:00propagandists.
02:01But I think it's more significant that this was the man who was in charge of chemical
02:05weapons.
02:06And we've seen the Russian side use chemical weapons in at least 50,000 instances, according
02:11to the Ukrainians, along the front line on Ukrainian soldiers.
02:15So I think this is, it feels like sweet revenge on the Ukrainian side that they have hit a
02:21target who was attacking Ukrainian soldiers.
02:25And the kind of chemical weapons that they're using are horrific and obviously cause a lot
02:31of pain and difficulty with breathing.
02:33So I think that there was a lot of cheering in Kiev when this news broke.
02:40Let's talk about the wider context here, Melinda.
02:41Of course, Ukraine is now trying to ramp up its own arms production in Ukraine.
02:48And that's, of course, ahead of an incoming Trump presidency.
02:51Tell us how you see the future of US aid for Kiev with Trump going to return to the White
02:58House in January.
03:01So no one knows.
03:02And there's a couple of different scenarios.
03:04One scenario is that Donald Trump is highly sceptical of Ukraine aid.
03:08He thinks that Zelensky is the greatest showman he's ever seen.
03:12And he zeroes out assistance on January 20th.
03:15And the Ukrainians and the Europeans are stuck and they have to figure out a way out.
03:19That's one option.
03:20And that's the most extreme option.
03:22I don't think that's the likely scenario.
03:24Donald Trump has a number of nominees, including Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg, who's the
03:30special envoy to Ukraine and Russia, who are quite tough on Russia.
03:34He's also nominated Mr. Waltz, who's a congressman, as his national security advisor, who's also
03:40very, he has a very internationalist view.
03:43So I don't expect Trump to zero out aid.
03:46Trump wants to bring peace to the war between Russia and Ukraine, and he says he's going
03:51to do it in 24 hours.
03:53But no one here in Washington believes him.
03:54We all think that's a campaign promise.
03:56The question, though, the big question, no one has an answer to this, is how do you compel,
04:02how do you get Vladimir Putin to come to the negotiating table?
04:05Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg has suggested that you tell Kiev, you must come to the negotiating
04:10table or we will cut off arms, and then Moscow will come to the negotiating table in exchange
04:16for freezing, that the Ukraine will either not join NATO or there will be a freezing
04:21of its NATO aspirations and some sanctions relief.
04:25Moscow already has said, drop dead, no thanks.
04:28So it's unclear how Putin is going to meet this campaign pledge.
04:32Yeah, we'll have to see how that plays out.
04:35I want to talk about the fact that NATO's chief, Mark Rutte, just a few days ago spoke
04:41of the fact that NATO members need to change to a wartime mindset and warn that NATO members
04:48aren't doing enough to prepare for a possible scenario of entering war with Russia.
04:55Do you think that NATO members are taking that warning seriously enough?
05:00So I think Europe is scared.
05:02They have been sitting on their hands for the last three years.
05:06Europe relies on the United States to protect them with military power.
05:12And there is a scenario in which Trump says, you're on your own, guys.
05:18We've been telling you, you need to meet the NATO quota and you're not doing it.
05:22So yes, I think Europe is scared, but they haven't put the production lines, the kind
05:27of defensive lines in place that they needed to do years ago.
05:31So they're quite nervous and I think that the NATO secretary's remarks are spot on.
05:38Melinda, great to talk to you.
05:40Thanks so much for joining us on the programme.
05:42Melinda Haring there speaking from Washington.
05:45She's a senior community engagement advisor at Razom for Ukraine.