Gold Prices Outlook In 2025: साल 2024 में सोने के दामों में 7300 रुपये प्रति 10 ग्राम का उछाल देखने को मिला है जो कि पिछले 10 सालों में सबसे ज्यादा है. पर सवाल उठता है साल 2025 में सोने का कैसा प्रदर्शन कैसा रहेगा? सोने में निवेश करना अभी कितना सुरक्षित? समझिए Manoj Kumar Jain, Director-Prithvi Finmart से
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#goldrate #gold #goldprice #goldforecast #prediction #goldoutlook2025
#silverprice #silverrate #Silver #GoldPrediction #24kgold #22kGold #GoldRateNews #GoldPriceNews #GoldRateToday #GoldPriceToday #SilverRateToday #SilverPriceToday #BreakingNews #GoldvsSilver #SilverInvestment #SilverRate #SilverPrediction #SilverOutlook #SilverForecast
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~PR.147~ED.148~HT.334~
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NewsTranscript
00:00Hi this is Bhavna and you are watching GoodReturns.
00:03The year 2024 is about to end and the new year 2025 is about to begin.
00:09So today we will talk about an asset that has been in a lot of talk this year,
00:15in which people have invested a lot.
00:17And apart from this, there has been a lot of talk about its return,
00:21because if we look at its return in comparison to bonds,
00:24or if we look at its return in comparison to Sensex and Nifty,
00:27then this asset has given a lot of return.
00:30You must have understood that this asset is gold.
00:33Yes, we will talk about gold today,
00:35because this year is ending and the year 2025 is about to begin.
00:39So for the next year, what strategies should you have?
00:42How should you invest?
00:45If you are going to invest in gold for the first time,
00:47then what things do you have to keep in mind?
00:50What are the factors that can impact the gold rate in 2025?
00:55Will there be a right time when you have to invest in gold?
00:59We will discuss all these things in this interview today.
01:05And Manoj Jain has also joined us, who is the director of Prithvi Finmart.
01:10Sir, welcome and thank you for talking to us.
01:15Namaskar, Bhavna ji.
01:21Before we ask Manoj ji a question,
01:24let us know what was the price of gold when it started this year?
01:28And what is the price of gold when we talk to Manoj ji today?
01:32Because we are moving towards the end of the year, so let us know the price.
01:36When the year started on January 1, 2024,
01:40the price was Rs. 63,225 per 10 grams.
01:44And today, if we talk about December 20,
01:47it is trading at Rs. 77,000 per 10 grams.
01:51Reports say that if we look at the global level till November,
01:55then gold has given a return of more than 28%.
01:58In the last 10 years, this performance of gold has been the best performance.
02:04FDE Bond, which I also mentioned, Sensex Nifty,
02:08in terms of all these returns, gold is at the forefront and everyone has left it behind.
02:14If you look at the community, gold has been in the top 3.
02:17So Manoj ji, gold has shown a good performance this year.
02:21Although we saw a lot of fluctuations,
02:23like we saw a correction after the July budget.
02:28There was also a correction in November.
02:30What do you think, in this year, in 2024, in which direction has gold gone?
02:35And what are the factors that have influenced the price of gold this year?
02:41Namaskar, Bhavna ji.
02:42If we talk about the year 2024, it has been a very turbulent year.
02:47In the international market, we have seen a return of up to 30% in gold.
02:52And in the Indian markets, gold has given a return of more than 20%.
02:58The main reason behind this was that we saw a lot of global uncertainty.
03:02Geopolitical tensions were at the forefront.
03:05Not only in the countries of the Middle East,
03:07but the war between Ukraine and Russia was also seen to be increasing in 2024.
03:14Secondly, the buying of global central banks was also better.
03:18And the process of de-dollarization,
03:20where many central banks are reducing their reserves in dollars and increasing them in gold,
03:26was also seen.
03:28In addition, the buying of ETFs was also good.
03:31So overall, the fundamentals were very supportive in 2024.
03:37And the biggest reason is that the US Federal Reserve,
03:42which was continuously increasing in interest rates,
03:44at the end of the year, we saw three red cards coming from there.
03:48And along with the Fed, we have seen big global central banks in the world,
03:51whether it is Bank of Canada, Bank of England, European Central Bank,
03:57we also saw a decline in interest rates from there.
04:00So because of all this, we saw a good growth in gold in 2024.
04:06In the last 10 years, we have seen the best performance this year.
04:27Sir, recently, a report by the World Gold Council has also come out,
04:31which said that next year,
04:33there will be an impact on growth and inflation rates in gold.
04:38And like 2024, the speed we have seen this year,
04:41we will not see as fast as WGC.
04:46But Goldman Sachs' report says that there will be hope for speed.
04:51What do you think, sir?
04:52How will the outlook of 2025 be?
04:55Yes, the outlook of 2025 should also be better as far as gold is concerned.
04:59We believe that global uncertainty will remain in 2025 as well.
05:04Because geopolitical tensions, along with the rise of the dollar,
05:08will also create a volatility of gold somewhere.
05:13Secondly, the predictions of global growth have been continuously decreasing.
05:17So that will also be a matter of concern.
05:19And the buying of global central banks will continue in 2025 as well.
05:25Recently, China put a halt to gold buying.
05:30So after 6 months, we have seen the buying return in November.
05:35So overall, we can say that the fundamentals will remain in 2025.
05:40But somewhere, the overall factors will remain supportive for gold.
05:47The US Fed has recently reduced the outlook of the interest rate for 2025
05:53by 4 rate cuts to 2 rate cuts.
05:56So we are seeing a strong dollar index here.
06:00And because of that, we are seeing corrections in prices at a higher level.
06:04But we believe that this is a temporary phenomenon.
06:07We can say that it will remain for the next 1-2 months.
06:09But overall, if we talk about the entire year,
06:12then there will be a good year for gold to return in 2025.
06:15And we believe that the returns of 12-15% can also be seen in gold in 2025.
06:21Sir, you have discussed some major factors.
06:26There are 3 major events in 2025 that are believed to influence gold.
06:31The first is Donald Trump becoming the President of the United States.
06:34The second is that the Union Budget is also going to be presented in February 2025.
06:40The third is that the decisions taken in the RBI's MPC meetings
06:44can also impact the gold rate.
06:47If we talk about Trump, then he can have a global impact.
06:51It can be positive for gold.
06:53But a strong dollar can reduce the speed of gold.
06:58Apart from this, we have also seen that Bitcoin has given very attractive returns.
07:03Because of this, the attraction of investors is also increasing towards Bitcoin.
07:08Can it have a negative impact on gold?
07:11If we try to understand all these factors, then what is your view, sir?
07:16As far as Bitcoin is concerned, we can see a temporary effect of it.
07:22But as far as the question of comparison is concerned, Bitcoin is not a real asset.
07:26We can say that it is a digital currency and there is no underlying asset.
07:30So, we can say that it can have a temporary impact in the short term.
07:34But as far as the question of real asset is concerned, it is gold.
07:38And its influence will always be on investors.
07:42So, I don't think it will have a long-term impact on gold.
07:48Secondly, as far as the question of Donald Trump's office resuming is concerned,
07:52in the beginning of the year 2025,
07:55we believe that his policies will not be seen as strengthening the dollar too much.
08:02Because if there is continuous strength in the dollar,
08:06then the growth of the U.S. will also be seen to be weakening.
08:10So, there they will have to look at both sides of the coin.
08:14When they are constantly talking about tariffs,
08:17the inflation in America can increase again.
08:19If the dollar is kept strong for a long time, then its growth can be delayed.
08:24So, keeping an eye on all these factors,
08:27looking at both sides of the coin,
08:29they will be seen to adopt an accommodative form somewhere.
08:32So that the concerns of the U.S. debt can also be seen to be addressed there.
08:37And their growth rate should also be maintained.
08:40So, I think that a temporary bounce is definitely seen in the dollar.
08:45But in the long term, there will be a lot of difficulty in maintaining the strength of the dollar in the year 2025.
08:51And it will also be supportive for gold here.
08:54So, it can be a little strong in the short term.
08:56But in the long term, gradually the dollar will be seen to be correct from the upper level.
09:01And it will support the prices of gold.
09:03If we talk about the domestic trend, then there is a union budget here.
09:06Last time, we saw a big cut in import duty of about 9%.
09:12But here we see that the rate of import duty has come to a very moderate level.
09:18So, there will not be much possibility of a duty cut from there.
09:22Because we are already seeing that the trade deficits are increasing continuously.
09:26So, the government will also keep an eye on it.
09:28And the policy of MPC, while looking at inflation, RBI has not made any cuts in the interest rates.
09:36And if inflation is controlled in the coming time, and if there is a rate cut, then it will be seen to be weakening the rupee somewhere.
09:43So, the weakness of the rupee will also be supportive for gold here.
09:47So, overall, if we look at the net, then there is no such worry that it is not visible for gold in the long term.
09:54And not only the global, but also the domestic factors will also be supportive for the prices here.
10:00So, sir, what are you hoping for the import duty in the budget?
10:03Will the import duty be increased this time, which was reduced by 15% to 6% in July?
10:08Yes, if we look at the things so far, then it does not seem that the status quo can remain.
10:13But if the trade deficit continues, if it increases in the next 1-2 months, then maybe the government can increase the import duty by 1-2%.
10:22But at present, there is no such indication from the government regarding the duty.
10:26Sir, we saw the impact of the recent US Fed decision on gold.
10:33In addition, as you also discussed, the central bank has also reduced the expectations of big investors of gold by 4-2%.
10:45So, what do you think, will the gold prices continue to rise despite this?
10:52Apart from this, I have one more request from you so that our viewers can understand everything better.
11:00How does the US Fed's decision, the strength or weakness of the dollar impact the gold prices?
11:07As far as the US Fed's decision and the strength of the dollar index is concerned,
11:13it directly impacts the gold. If there is strength in the dollar, then it is negative for gold.
11:20But we believe that the strength of the dollar is for the short term.
11:26Somewhere in the long term, the US has to take care of its growth.
11:30So, looking at that, in the long term, the strength of the dollar will not be there and gradually we will see that it will come down and will be visible.
11:38Secondly, the Fed's decision also clearly impacts the price of gold.
11:43Because if the US Fed cuts in the interest rates, then it infuses global liquidity and it remains supportive for prices.
11:51Similarly, if there is an increase in the interest rates, then it remains negative for gold.
11:56So, here the US Fed has indicated that there will be two rate cuts in the world in 2025.
12:02So, here we can say that the US Fed can have a moderate view and there is not much strength in the dollar in the world in 2025.
12:12Because many factors are discounted here.
12:15And if the geopolitical tensions are less, then somewhere that will also be seen pushing the dollar down.
12:22So, there will not be much impact here of the US Fed's decision and the dollar.
12:27And somewhere the other fundamentals will be seen playing and somewhere it will remain supportive for gold.
12:35Absolutely, that is, the speed in gold can continue, gold can get support.
12:39Sir, if we talk about 2024, then this year we have seen how the import of gold has increased a lot.
12:46If we talk about last year, 2023, then it was around 743 tons, which was the gold import.
12:52Apart from this, there is a hope of 40-50 tons of gold import in December.
12:57After that, there is such a hope that it can be up to 840 tons approximately.
13:02What effect will you see on gold prices and what are the expectations for next year?
13:07Are you looking at next year in such a way that the demand will increase so much that the import of gold will also increase?
13:12There were 2-3 reasons for the increase in import of gold.
13:16One was the global uncertainty.
13:17The second was the cut in duty by the Indian government, which also had a positive impact on consumer demand.
13:26So, because of that, we have seen that a good import has been seen here.
13:31The year 2025 can be moderate because we are seeing that there is concern about inflation.
13:37And domestic consumption has also been seen to be weakening.
13:41So, we believe that there will not be a lot of imports in the year 2025.
13:47And there can be a moderate state of imports here.
13:51In such a case, if a decision is made by the government on duty, then the demand and supply of gold will be affected accordingly.
14:00Sir, apart from this, if we talk about 2025, then what are you seeing?
14:04Are there any chances of economic slowdown or recession that can impact gold?
14:10Yes, there will be no possibility of recession, but we are seeing that the global economy is under continuous pressure.
14:19China's slowdown was in the year 2024, but in the year 2025, there is talk of bringing the economy back on track.
14:27Stimulus is also being given by China.
14:30So, we believe that in the year 2025, there can be a little pressure in the initial quarter or two.
14:35But gradually, there will be an improvement.
14:39We are also seeing that there is a little pressure in the European economy.
14:42And if the problems of Russia and Ukraine are solved here after the arrival of Donald Trump,
14:48then the European economy will also appear to be back on track.
14:52So, we can say that a balanced year 2025 can be for the overall global market.
14:57Absolutely. Sir, now let's take a look.
14:59Would you like to know what levels you would like to give gold in 2025?
15:05In the year 2025, we believe that there will be strong support around $2,500 in gold.
15:13And the possibility of going below that is less here.
15:17And gradually, we believe that prices can go up to $2,500 to $3,000 in the international market again by the end of the year.
15:25If I talk about the Indian markets, then there should be a protection of $72,000 on the downside.
15:32And on the upside, we believe that prices can go up to $85,000 to $90,000 by the end of the year.
15:39So, initially, there can be a little pressure in the initial month or two.
15:43But if we talk about the length of the year, then prices can reach up to $90,000 by the end of the year.
15:50Absolutely. Sir, what is the time in 2025 that can be the best time to buy?
15:56Yes, the first quarter of 2025 will be a good time to buy.
16:01Because we are already seeing a good correction in gold from the upper levels.
16:06And if there is a fall of Rs. 2,000 to Rs. 3,000 from the current level, then there will be very good levels in terms of investment.
16:13And the first quarter of 2025 should be invested gradually in gold keeping in mind the middle of the year.
16:21So, by the end of the year, we believe that gold can give returns of 12% to 15% next year.
16:27Sir, my second question is related to this.
16:30What will be the time in 2025 when gold can reach its all-time high level?
16:36As far as the all-time high is concerned, we believe that gold can cross its all-time high in the second half of 2025 in the international market and in the Indian markets.
16:47We have seen that in 2024, the international market is at around $2,800 and we have seen gold being made in the Indian markets at around $80,000.
16:56We believe that gold can cross its all-time high in the second half of 2025 and can reach its all-time high.
17:04Sir, what strategies should investors adopt for 2025?
17:08Gold is an asset class according to long-term investment and should always be invested in it.
17:15It also helps to diversify your portfolio.
17:20Investors should invest 10-15% of their investment in precious metals.
17:26Gold is an asset class.
17:28Invest in gold and it will help to diversify your portfolio.
17:35Gold has always given positive returns in the long term.
17:38Keep your investment safe.
17:42Sir, what type of investment do you think can be the best for gold in 2025?
17:47There are many options.
17:49There is ETF, government bonds, if you want to take a delivery, you can take coins or bars from the physical market.
17:57If you want to take in demand, you can take digital gold or you can take gold delivery in MCX.
18:04There are many options.
18:06Investors can choose any option according to their risk appetite and investment horizon.
18:11Sir, what special advice do you have for those who are going to invest in gold for the first time?
18:17If you are going to invest for the first time, then you should start with a small amount.
18:21For that, ETF is a better option.
18:23ETF is listed in the stock exchanges in India.
18:27You can also take ETF in mutual funds.
18:30Start investing from there.
18:32So that when your understanding is complete there, then you can choose another option.
18:38For those who are just starting, ETF is a better option.
18:42So ETF can be a better option for you if you are investing in gold for the first time.
18:48Manoj ji, thank you very much for giving us such valuable insights.
18:52Thank you for joining us.
18:55So you understood the factors that have impacted the gold market in 2024.
19:01Apart from this, what can be the outlook of 2025?
19:04How much return can gold give?
19:06What can be its levels?
19:08If we talk about the end of 2025, then in 2024, we can see that the level is around 80,000.
19:17And if we talk about the end of 2025, then gold can reach up to 90,000.
19:24The first 3 months, i.e. the first quarter, can be good for you to invest.
19:31So gold is considered a safe heaven asset.
19:35The way to invest in it is always good.
19:39It is always considered a safe heaven asset.
19:43So you keep investing in the right way.
19:45If you are going to invest for the first time, then you must consult your financial advisor.
19:51And after that, invest your money somewhere.
19:55How did you like this video?
19:57Do tell us by commenting.
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20:03Thank you for watching us.