MEDI1TV Afrique : L'industrie au Maroc avec Youssef Guerraoui Filali - 24/12/2024
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00:00Ladies and gentlemen, hello and welcome to Focus Eco.
00:13In the space of a quarter of a century, the number of industrial affairs in Morocco has quadrupled.
00:19It has gone from 85 billion to 800 billion dirhams.
00:23On their side, exports were multiplied by six to reach 377 billion dirhams in 2023.
00:31According to the Minister of Industry and Trade,
00:35every day, 2 billion dirhams of industrial affairs are generated,
00:41half of which is exported.
00:44Retrospective of the sector of industry in Morocco,
00:47this is the subject of Focus Eco today.
00:50Mr. Youssef Graoui, you are an economist. Thank you for being with us.
00:53Thank you, Madam, for the invitation.
00:55So, what is the state of affairs and what is the assessment of the sector of industry in 2024?
01:02Absolutely, the sector of the Moroccan industry is a sector that is growing very fast.
01:08We are noticing a very significant development,
01:10especially in leading industries, the automotive industry, the aeronautics industry.
01:17Previously, we were talking about the textile industry, the leather industry,
01:21the performance of the phosphate sector.
01:24So really, an industry today that is diversifying,
01:27that wants to be a modern industry
01:29and that is trying to achieve the development goals for 2030.
01:34In particular, a figure that many people are not paying attention to,
01:38is that in the new development model, we have planned an industrial indicator,
01:42to reach an industrial capacity that represents 60% of our added value.
01:47So, today, to make a little bit of a state of affairs,
01:50the added industrial value is around 26.5%.
01:55So we want to go from 26.5% to 60%.
01:58It's huge, it's very ambitious,
02:01but you should know that today the added industrial value has exceeded 380 billion liras.
02:08If we refer to the year 2024.
02:12It's huge, it's important.
02:14But where the problem is, it's the added industrial value,
02:18that is, the growth rate that we generate,
02:21not in value, in dirham, not in billions of dirham,
02:25but the percentage of industry development from one year to the next
02:29and the jobs that are created within the framework of industrial activity.
02:32This is where there is a problem.
02:34When we refer, of course, to the ECB's exploratory economic budget,
02:40we are talking about something around 3%,
02:43as a growth rate in terms of transformation economy.
02:48Everything we transform, in industrial terms, is at a 3% growth rate.
02:52It remains weak in the face of Morocco's ambitions.
02:55A Morocco on the horizon in 2030,
02:57which wants to register in its NMD, in its development model,
03:00and reach growth rates of 7-8%.
03:03There is a lot of work to be done in terms of industrial transformation,
03:07in terms of valuing the added value,
03:10to work much more on operating cycles,
03:12on industrial performance of companies,
03:15whether agricultural or industrial, or even services.
03:18These are huge challenges that will have to be tackled.
03:21And then the employment side,
03:23because an industrial performance means
03:26much more job creation,
03:29if only to give you a figure.
03:31If we take employment creation in the industrial sector,
03:34net employment creation for the year 2023,
03:38we have created about 29,000 net jobs.
03:41When we look at the destruction of jobs in the agricultural sector,
03:45it is very high.
03:46This is climate change,
03:48the five years of drought, etc.
03:50We have lost more than 200,000 jobs.
03:52It doesn't make up for the gap.
03:54It doesn't make up for the gap.
03:56So we need a real industrial performance.
03:59On the one hand, as you said, to compensate for this gap,
04:02and on the other hand, to join a virtuous circle
04:05where we have very high growth rates
04:07that are driven by the added industrial value,
04:11non-agricultural and non-agricultural.
04:14This is the challenge to be tackled, at least for 2025.
04:17Today, SMEs account for about 38%.
04:21When we talk about industrial companies,
04:24it is a sign that shows the diversity of the Moroccan economy.
04:28It is true.
04:29The Moroccan economy today has begun to diversify.
04:32Not as much as we would like,
04:34because we have to be pioneers in several sectors.
04:37And I had warned in a number of scientific articles,
04:41in conferences where I was part of,
04:43that this industrial performance
04:45does not simply depend on two or three sectors.
04:48I am talking about the automotive sector.
04:50I am talking about this opening up in the aeronautics sector.
04:53So we have to be careful.
04:55Today, in any case, these two sectors,
04:57automotive and aeronautics,
04:59are they the two industrial sectors
05:02that drive the Moroccan economy, mainly?
05:05These are sectors that have very high growth rates.
05:09But in terms of volume, in terms of billions of dirhams,
05:12we also have to work on the other sectors.
05:15Because if the automotive sector records a performance of 20-30%,
05:19and it does not reflect on the added industrial value,
05:23it means that the weight of the sector today,
05:26compared to these industries, in terms of added value creation,
05:29is not yet significant.
05:31Indeed, when we look at the performance
05:33in the export of the industrial sector,
05:35we are in a way left out.
05:37Because already the export of everything that is automobile
05:40today far exceeds the historical export of phosphates.
05:46It is true, the performance of the automotive sector
05:49today in the Moroccan industry is evident.
05:53The Chinese exports also exceed this year.
05:58Absolutely. Indeed, the industrial performance is there.
06:01But if we want to dig a little into the details,
06:03quickly, if you allow me,
06:05in this industrial performance,
06:07there is not a significant growth rate
06:10in terms of local transformation.
06:12That is to say, there is importation,
06:14we are centralizing,
06:16doing the assembly of parts, etc.
06:18The added value is exported,
06:20and the mass recruitment does not follow.
06:23Because in general, in this type of industry,
06:26we invest massively in artificial intelligence,
06:29in cyber-physical systems, in remote objects.
06:32We recruit fewer engineers, fewer workforce.
06:35And that is reflected in the unemployment rates today,
06:38which are very high.
06:40And we know that the Moroccan industry,
06:42despite factory openings, despite partnerships,
06:45despite the dynamics undertaken by the Minister of Industry,
06:48the employment creation in the industrial sector does not follow.
06:51You said it, technology, artificial intelligence.
06:54In this sector, there is also robotization.
06:57And that is a challenge for the years to come.
07:00Maybe not for today, but for the years to come.
07:03This robotization, which can work 24 hours a day,
07:06from morning to night, and replace man.
07:09Absolutely.
07:11Moreover, when I met the Minister of Industry,
07:13I think a year and a half ago,
07:15in the context of a conference,
07:17I had drawn his attention to this.
07:19I told him that the dynamics that we have, for example,
07:21in the aeronautics and automobile sector,
07:23is a very good dynamic, but...
07:25But for now, it is in the early stages.
07:27In the short and medium term.
07:29It must be able to maintain it over time.
07:31Absolutely, Madam.
07:33And that in the long term, with artificial intelligence,
07:36with the rise in power of the globalization of services,
07:39with this digital economy that has become very intense,
07:42we are going to live in a wave of destruction of jobs.
07:45When we look at the unemployment of young people today,
07:48the unemployment of young people over the last ten years,
07:51it has gone from 20% to 40%,
07:53the unemployment rate among young people.
07:55It has doubled.
07:57It has doubled over a decade.
07:59This shows that, in terms of industrial activity,
08:02we create infrastructures,
08:04we invest in production material,
08:07but the recruitment of young people does not follow.
08:10And this is what explains that today,
08:12despite the openings, despite the added value
08:14that continues to progress in these sectors,
08:17the automotive and aeronautics industry,
08:20the creation of jobs does not follow,
08:22and the destruction of jobs will be more and more
08:26more frequent and more intense in the years to come.
08:30Hence the fact that we must react right away.
08:33Another figure.
08:3553% of companies are microstructures
08:38that generate only 2% of the global turnover,
08:42which suggests a chronic inability
08:45to create a robust entrepreneurial fabric
08:48that belongs to the so-called mature economies.
08:55Absolutely.
08:56Because when we look at the entrepreneurial composition in Morocco,
09:01what do we notice?
09:03We notice that you have 2% of large and medium-sized companies
09:07that generate practically more than 90% of tax revenues.
09:11They are the ones that carry the Moroccan economy
09:13in terms of added value creation, in terms of turnover, etc.
09:16When we look at the Moroccan entrepreneurial population,
09:18at 95%, it is made up of SMEs.
09:21Small, very small, small companies.
09:23These companies are suffering.
09:26They don't have enough capital,
09:29they don't generate the added value they want,
09:31they have problems accessing the dark,
09:33they have problems accessing the public market.
09:35There are so many entrepreneurial problems
09:38that do not allow these companies to register
09:40on a global value chain.
09:42Neither to serve the Moroccan industry,
09:45nor to export in terms of industry, in terms of transformation.
09:48The challenge today is to create a synergy
09:51between these large companies and the very small companies
09:55so that everyone can coexist and develop.
09:58Absolutely.
09:59What is the goal?
10:00It is to allow Moroccan entrepreneurial fabric
10:03to access industrial activities
10:06and for the Moroccan entrepreneurial fabric
10:08to enter into a very strong synergy with large and medium-sized companies.
10:11What are the challenges in terms of local production?
10:14You mentioned it earlier.
10:15Of course, the challenge.
10:16We assemble, but we need an added value that is more important.
10:19Exactly.
10:20Because when we make joint ventures,
10:23partnerships with foreign manufacturers,
10:26the foreign manufacturer comes,
10:28it starts to function in Morocco,
10:30it benefits from a certain number of advantages,
10:32but all the raw materials, supplies, etc.
10:35are mainly imported from abroad.
10:38We need to work a lot more on the appreciation of the local industry
10:41and create regional ecosystems
10:44that will allow these large companies
10:49that settle in certain areas
10:51to work with small and medium-sized local companies
10:54in terms of acquiring raw materials and supplies,
10:59but eventually the Moroccan entrepreneurial fabric
11:02has to ensure its share of responsibility.
11:04Work on quality, work on the marketing part,
11:08be a more professional entrepreneurial fabric
11:10that offers services with end-to-end support
11:13up to the delivery and implementation of the raw material
11:15in the operating cycle.
11:17The entrepreneurial fabric must also be assisted,
11:21accompanied by large and medium-sized companies,
11:24by the public sector,
11:26by state-owned institutions
11:28that will allow these SMEs to become professionals,
11:31to make a profit,
11:32to find their place with these large international companies
11:35that open factories internationally
11:38and which are installed practically in 4 or 5 regions of the pilot kingdom
11:42in terms of industrialization that we know,
11:44in the case of Casablanca, Rabat, Angers, Salé,
11:47and then you also have the region of the Oriental
11:51which has very strong productivity deposits,
11:53without forgetting the southern region.
11:55So we have regions of productivity deposits,
11:57but the professionalization of our SMEs is in place,
12:00and to be able to join
12:03an industrialization dynamic,
12:05an opening dynamic,
12:06we absolutely need to work on technical assistance
12:10to these SMEs,
12:11and not just financing,
12:12because when we neglect the technical part,
12:14we give financing,
12:15we fall into very high deflation rates.
12:18The latest figure is that deflation has increased by 13%.
12:21Absolutely.
12:22It was also this year, this year 2024.
12:25To conclude,
12:26now that we have discussed a little bit
12:28and gone through the challenges that the sector is facing today,
12:31if we had to talk about the prospects for the future very quickly,
12:34in less than thirty seconds,
12:36of the industry sector in 2025.
12:38So the prospects for the future,
12:40in my opinion,
12:41to have an industry sector that is solid.
12:43First, a strong negotiation from the public sector
12:47so that when we sign conventions,
12:50when we give incentives,
12:52when we give tax benefits
12:54to international factories,
12:56to companies,
12:57to multinationals,
12:58to companies to come and settle in Morocco,
13:00we need to have visibility on the recruitment plan,
13:03on the employment of young people,
13:04on the transfer of skills,
13:05on training,
13:06to have qualified staff and manpower,
13:09and that is to increase the competitiveness of Morocco.
13:11And adapt to the technological evolution.
13:13Absolutely.
13:14Secondly,
13:15we need to allow Moroccan entrepreneurs
13:18to find,
13:19to benefit from these facilities.
13:21In particular, of course,
13:23through access to value chains at the national level
13:26so that these SMEs can work,
13:29have an order book,
13:30function,
13:31sell,
13:32deliver to these factories,
13:33to large Moroccan companies.
13:35And also,
13:36the effort must also be made at the national level
13:38because large and medium-sized companies,
13:40companies that are on monopolies
13:42in a certain number of sectors,
13:44must open up
13:45and work with Moroccan companies
13:48instead of ordering from foreign companies
13:51in Turkey, in Asia.
13:52We see that.
13:53So it's important.
13:54Thank you, Mr. Youssef Graoui.
13:56I remind you that you are an economist.
13:58It was a pleasure to have you with us
14:00for this Retro Industry for the year 2024.
14:04This is the end of Economic Focus for today.
14:06See you tomorrow with a new guest,
14:08a new topic.
14:09Have a very good day.
14:17Economic Focus for the Year 2022