Category
🥇
SportsTranscript
00:00We're going to start with Scotty, and the first question we're asking here is,
00:05how many wins in 2025 will Scotty Scheffler have?
00:09And maybe already kind of behind the eight ball, skipping the century,
00:12because that could have been one he could have won.
00:13In 2024, just a refresher, he won the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
00:18He won the Players.
00:19He won the Masters.
00:20He won RBC Heritage, the Memorial, Travelers.
00:24He, of course, won a gold medal at the Olympics.
00:27He won the Tour Championship, and he won the Hero World Challenge.
00:30So, Smiley, what number are you assigning to Scotty this year?
00:36I think the safest place to, like, set an over or under to me,
00:41I think five win seasons have been such a benchmark over, you know,
00:46since the turn of the century.
00:49Is that right, turn of the century, 2000 to...
00:52Yeah, that's...
00:53Okay, just making sure, like, my math was...
00:56Real chronology pot.
00:58Who would have thought?
00:59Not me.
01:01Well, since 2000, right, we know that Tiger Woods has done it plenty of times,
01:05winning five-plus times.
01:06We've seen Scotty Scheffler do it last year.
01:09And I look at the seasons that there have been five win players,
01:15and you got Justin Thomas has done it, Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Vijay Singh.
01:21All four of these guys have done it,
01:22and I even think about guys who've never done it.
01:25Phil Mickelson has never won five times in a season.
01:27Rory McIlroy has not done it, at least with just official PGA Tour wins.
01:31So, four and a half is a good place to start just based off of history, right?
01:36Like, if he's able to win more than four and a half,
01:41now we go to the category of, okay, Scotty could be different.
01:46Like, he's having an incredible three-year run,
01:49one player of the year three years in a row.
01:50He's won two Masters, won all the times you just talked about.
01:54We are going to have to start putting Scotty in a different category
01:57if he backs up this season with something anywhere similar,
02:02whether it's five, six, seven wins on the PGA Tour.
02:05To me, that, it's unprecedented.
02:07When we just talk about Phil Mickelson already in the Hall of Fame,
02:10won X amount of times.
02:11Rory McIlroy won so many times.
02:14And it's only been done by four other players outside of Tiger Woods.
02:18So, that's where my brain goes is four and a half, over, under on it.
02:22I think he was probably going to win the century.
02:25So, that would have been one potentially,
02:27but let's say now he's not playing now that we know.
02:31I think four and a half, it's going to be hard, right?
02:34There's, I mean, the talent's there.
02:37I mean, I'm surprised you're coming out that conservative
02:40because I really do think it's going to be a double-digit win year
02:43for Scotty Scheffler.
02:44And I just think it's, we went from last year,
02:49the first part of that year was taking the putting from really bad
02:54to like baseline average,
02:56which as we've talked about numerous times on this podcast,
03:00if Scotty is putting really, really bad,
03:03he's probably top 10 finish.
03:05If Scotty's putting average, he is in and around the lead
03:09or he's winning the tournament by a shot or two.
03:11If Scotty's putting it good, above average,
03:14he's winning by five shots.
03:16So, last year, we saw the correction in large part due to the switch
03:20from a blade putter and messed around with some different,
03:22it went from a Scotty to like the Logan Olsen putter
03:25that then, you know, that company got acquired by TaylorMade
03:27and then finally gets into that TaylorMade Spyder
03:30and whatever it is sort of clicks
03:33and then he starts winning it at a higher clip that putting improves.
03:36And then we saw sort of the latter stage of this season
03:38doing some more work.
03:39I think with Phil Kenyon, they've continued to work together.
03:42He goes to that sort of saw grip on, you know,
03:44whatever they want to say, 15 or 10 feet in
03:47and made a big sort of leap in that category
03:51that I think is going to continue into 2025.
03:53So, that sample size is just so small.
03:55Even though it was very impressive what he did,
03:58I watched every shot of it.
04:00I still think you got to take that with a bit of grain of salt.
04:05It's where I'm at right now.
04:07Totally fair.
04:07And this is, and we're projecting here.
04:09We're making, I guess I'm not really going out on that much of a limb here,
04:13but I'm just saying that if that is taking the over,
04:15it sounds like I'm taking a well over.
04:18I mean, I'm doubling it.
04:19I think if it now,
04:20but the tricky one there is that the Olympics this last year
04:24is kind of like a bonus of it of sorts.
04:28It's an event that, you know,
04:30in that spot in the calendar Scott,
04:31he's not playing, you know,
04:32the Wyndham or whatever is going to be there.
04:35He's going to he's going to play like that.
04:38That's like a bonus signature event of sorts, right?
04:40And then also the hero.
04:41I mean, I assume he's going to be back in the field this year,
04:43but maybe decides he kind of wants to lighten up the back half of the
04:46schedule.
04:46It's been more time with family.
04:48And that's also like a non-sanctioned PGA Tour event.
04:50So really, you know, he has seven official wins.
04:53So it's getting to 10 would be significant.
04:55But I think it's I think it's again north of eight.
04:59I mean, I let me just play a little contrarian to your argument.
05:04Yes.
05:05Like we are.
05:06We just watched one of the greatest seasons this this sport has ever seen.
05:10Right?
05:10So why would you think he's just going to repeat it?
05:13Well, I'll say that his mental game
05:18and what he was able to basically take a leap going from,
05:23I thought a player that overreacted to a lot,
05:26you know, always seem to be bothered by mispots or,
05:31you know, just hands on the hip situations that,
05:34you know, didn't look like Tiger Woods out there as far as the mental game
05:36and just being able to handle the ups and downs of a round
05:40and a 72 hole tournament this past year.
05:43He's get some confidence in the putter.
05:44You can see that the confidence throughout the game comes about,
05:50but I just I just have to wonder here's a guy that now.
05:57I don't know if it's expectations can get even higher to put even more pressure on yourself
06:02because hey winning is not easy.
06:05It takes a ton of mental energy to win any week on the PGA Tour.
06:09He's unbelievable at golf, but he's got to still,
06:14you know, compete at that same level and have similar ball striking statistics.
06:19Do we think that's going to hold up over time?
06:23Is he going to have any injuries? I don't know.
06:25I personally think I'm very close to that four total wins to five total wins.
06:31I think he wins for four total. I would probably take the under.
06:35I would take three PGA Tour wins and one major.
06:37That's wow. I just think it's such a little bearish.
06:41I think it's very difficult to back up a season like he had.
06:46He found a little bit of luck in some tournaments like things went his way.
06:50He probably won three or so events that he probably shouldn't have which and here's past like he wasn't even,
06:59you know, he was finishing fourth. He was winning these golf tournaments.
07:02So I you have to wonder if the luck bug is going to be with on his side this year to win tournaments.