CGTN Europe spoke to Professor of International Politics at University of Birmingham, David Dunn
Category
🎵
MusicTranscript
00:00Now David Dunn is a professor of international politics at the University
00:04of Birmingham. Professor thanks so much for your time. The judges already
00:07indicated that jail time is unlikely so does this case actually matter to Donald
00:12Trump? Yes it matters to him hugely in terms of his reputation and he has been
00:19consistently calling for these charges to be thrown out. In fact one of the
00:24reasons why this hearing has been scheduled at this date is that he
00:28complained that that would hang over him over the next four years and
00:31interrupt his concentration as president. So the judge said fine we'll
00:35do it now then. And it matters also to the judge. The judge is very keen to show
00:41that the rule of law in America still applies. That actually he has been
00:46found guilty of 34 felonies and therefore the one of the jury which was
00:51unanimous should be seen to prevail and the justice prevail and that he is found
00:56guilty and given a sentence, a token sentence, for the crimes that he has
01:01been found guilty of. So Trump is furious. The judge is keen to hold the rule of
01:06law. It will be interesting to see whether actually Trump is able to
01:11actually postpone this hearing or whether he would appeal the sentence but
01:14there is an attempt to have a legal reckoning in this interregnum between
01:19the election and him being sworn in as president on the 20th. In other
01:24developments in the run-up to the inauguration on the 20th, on Friday Mike
01:28Johnson re-elected House Speaker. However there is concern among some Republican
01:33representatives that he might not be able to further Trump's agenda. Could you
01:38explain why this role of Speaker is so crucial for Trump's agenda? Well the
01:45Speaker of the House really does manage the whole legislative program of a new
01:49administration and is responsible for getting it through Congress and what we
01:53have is the new Congress when it's sworn in in January has an even thinner
01:58the majority than the one that's in there just now and there are
02:02many people in that Republican majority are unhappy with aspects of the agenda
02:08that Trump is putting forward. Trump wants to extend the tax cuts that he
02:13put forward last time he was in office which will cost four trillion dollars
02:18and favor mostly the rich. What that is likely to do is increase America's
02:22deficit and there are many fiscally conservative Americans are very
02:26concerned about that. Add to that that there are many aspects of the agenda
02:30that are very radical. The very radical deportation plans, the trade policy
02:35that are very confrontational, plans to cut the federal budget which will mean
02:41cutting into programs that are dearly popular among many of the American
02:47people which could have electoral effects for members of Congress. So it's
02:50by far from clear whether this very radical agenda across a
02:56whole variety of issues will get the support even within the Republican Party
03:00to get the majority needed to actually get them through Congress and the
03:05Speaker's role is crucial in this and many regard him as ineffectual, regard
03:09him as captured by Trump and they are not entirely happy with him of support
03:15of his leadership. So what we're likely to see despite the fact that Trump has
03:19the White House and both houses of Congress and a quiescent Supreme Court
03:23we're likely to see a very fractious set of politics in the next four years or
03:28certainly the next two years as Trump tries to push through what are
03:32controversial and radical policies. At the same time Trump's been having many
03:36meetings at his Mar-a-Lago home. What is his agenda in this period running up to
03:42his inauguration? What's he trying to do do you think? Well Trump is very keen to
03:48avoid what happened last time round when he was sworn in with very little clear
03:52idea of what to do or what agenda to follow and he was largely reacted and
03:57really unfamiliar with the ways of Washington. So this time round he's
04:01actually trying to be thoroughly prepared across a range of issues. He's
04:06trying to get as many people into positions of authority who are loyal to
04:09him as their first priority to ensure that he doesn't get blocked on all the
04:13policy changes he wants to do. So as I say there's a radical agenda there. He
04:18also is indicated that he's quite keen to actually affect retribution on his
04:23political enemies and there are plans to do that as part of his new administration
04:27coming in from January the 20th. So he plans to hit the ground
04:32running. He wants to actually make sure that he makes a whole flurry of
04:36announcements as soon as he's back into the White House and he wants to do that
04:41across a range of issues. So that the activity in Maduraga has been
04:47very frenetic. There have been many people trying to lobby him in Florida to
04:53make sure that their agenda is pursued. This includes business interests,
04:59international interlocutors, many foreign powers have sent representatives
05:04down there, diplomats down there to talk to him in his winter White House as it
05:10were, in order to try and influence what he does when he comes into office. Because
05:14there is a huge amount at stake not just in terms of all the domestic things I've
05:19talked about but also in terms of actually the future of relations with
05:22Russia and Ukraine, the future of the Middle East, not least of which is the
05:28future of Syria which is far from clear, that where what happens with Iran, whether
05:32Israel gets to go ahead to attack Iran if it moves towards a nuclear weapon
05:37capability and of course more broadly in international trade policy and of
05:41course a subset of that is also China and with that China and the relationship
05:45to Taiwan. So there are many many issues that Trump will have to face as
05:50president. It's far from clear what the positions will be on all of those
05:56issues given that Trump is keen to be a disruptor, he's keen to actually impose
06:01his own agenda and particular style on those relationships and therefore we're
06:06in for a fairly frenetic period as we enter the White House from January
06:11onwards as those policy positions are outlined and whether they are successful
06:17both in Congress and in terms of the interlocutors that they are aimed at as
06:22part of that wider policy. For example we're already seeing today the
06:26Prime Minister of Honduras saying that they will kick out the American base
06:30there if the Americans try to deport Honduran and other Latin American
06:35citizens who are in America allegedly illegally. So I think what we're in for
06:40an exciting time in terms of the news agenda, in terms of the political agenda
06:45because this administration is not business as usual.
06:48Absolutely, thank you so much for your time David Dunn, Professor of International
06:52Politics at the University of Birmingham.