CGTN Europe spoke to David Dunn, Professor of International Politics at the University of Birmingham
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00:00Well, for more analysis on this, we're joined now by David Dunn, Professor of International Politics at the University of Birmingham in the UK.
00:07Thank you very much, Professor Dunn, for talking to us today.
00:10So, first of all, if I could just get your reaction to this breaking news, President Putin declaring a short Easter ceasefire.
00:17What can we read into this, do you think?
00:20Well, I think this doesn't alter the main substance of the Russian aggression towards Ukraine.
00:26A two-day hiatus in the violence isn't really that meaningful if Russia is going to resurrect its hostilities after Easter and continue the illegal bombardment of Ukraine.
00:39But what it is, is a tip of the hat to Donald Trump that Russia appears to be willing to follow his agenda of moving towards some sort of ceasefire.
00:48But, of course, it's not a meaningful ceasefire if it's only for two days.
00:51And this comes just after President Trump warned that Washington would walk away soon, or could walk away, unless there was rapid progress to end the Ukraine conflict with Russia.
01:03I mean, was this seeming running out of patience by the Americans a smart shift in strategy that maybe is working and showing their influence on Russia,
01:12or a signal that Donald Trump and his team are just not as good at international diplomacy as they might like to think?
01:17I think the Trump administration has found the negotiations with Russia much more difficult than the anticipated.
01:24Witkoff, when you hear him interviewed, says this is much more difficult than real estate in New York.
01:30And it's no surprise there that that's his experience.
01:33He isn't a State Department negotiator.
01:35These are very complicated issues with many moving parts.
01:39And the Trump administration has found itself unable to actually get the Russians and the Ukrainians to actually breach the huge divides that are between them and their positions.
01:51So I think it signals frustration.
01:53I think it also, perhaps, is part of the parallel process of negotiating a minerals deal and other deal with Ukraine.
02:01It's a way of putting pressure on Ukraine, particularly on the Ukrainian parliament, to actually accept the very demanding, some would say extortionate deal that the Americans are suggesting for Ukraine's rare earth minerals and, indeed, other natural resources.
02:17But it's also a way of actually saying that if we fail in this, it's not our fault.
02:22It's Russia's fault, it's Ukraine's fault, and actually saying that they're pushing the blame towards those parties.
02:28What there isn't in this statement is an indication of a willingness to put pressure on Russia, as people have suggested.
02:36They could improve the sanctions regime.
02:39They could put more pressure on Russia.
02:41They can even actually supply more weapons to Ukraine to up the military ante.
02:45None of those things have been suggested by the Trump administration, which suggests that where the pressure is, is on Ukraine rather than on Moscow.
02:52And if the U.S. does walk away, what would that mean for Europe-U.S. relations, and more importantly, for the people of Ukraine?
03:00It depends on what the nature of that walk away is.
03:03If it's just ceasing to be engaged in the diplomatic process, that's one thing.
03:08But if it's the case that it were to halt or to fail to backfill the arms supplies that the Biden administration sanctioned, that would be a major problem for Ukraine.
03:19And it would, as a consequence, likely be a crunch point.
03:24The Europeans would not be very supportive of that, and they would seek to continue to support Ukraine militarily and economically.
03:33And they would also want the Trump administration to supply them American weapons.
03:39Americans are the only ones who can supply Patriot missiles for the batteries for the air defense of Ukraine.
03:46If the Americans were to allow the Europeans to buy those at a reasonable price, that would be one thing.
03:53If the Americans were to keep on their intelligence provision for Ukraine, that would be welcomed.
03:58If those things were withdrawn, that could be a real breach in European-American relations,
04:03because the Europeans would regard that as the abandonment of Ukraine and the abandonment of their ability to support Ukraine,
04:11even if the Americans weren't doing so in a fulsome way.
04:14And that could be a major breach in European-U.S. relations,
04:18because the Europeans are faithful of that abandonment and that betrayal, frankly, of Ukraine by the Americans.
04:27And this may be that point that has been signaled by these rather odd statements from the White House.
04:33David, if we could briefly return to our top story, Iran and Trump's approach appears to be more aggressive than Biden's.
04:42Is this more about restoring deterrence, or could this risk triggering a broader conflict in the Middle East?
04:49Yeah, I don't think this is about deterrence.
04:52What this is about is compulsion. It's about coercion, right?
04:55The Americans are not wanting to try and deter Iran from acting.
04:59What they're wanting to do is to coerce them, under the threat of military violence,
05:04to say to Iran, you have to completely disband your nuclear program,
05:10disband your ballistic missile capability,
05:12and stop providing military assistance to your proxies in the Middle East,
05:17Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis.
05:19Unless you do that, we reserve the right to bomb your facilities
05:24in order to remove those capabilities from them.
05:27So it's a coercive act.
05:29Deterrence is one thing. Deterrence is much easier.
05:31But actually forcing someone to change what they're doing in three important areas like this
05:36is a huge demand on the part of the American administration.
05:41And it's unlikely to meet with success,
05:44because the Iranians would see it as a huge humiliation to give ground on any one of those,
05:49let alone all three of those.
05:51So if the Trump administration expects Iran to do that,
05:55I think they're going to find that they will be disappointed.
05:58Now, whether that means that they will then turn to military action,
06:00or whether they will settle for less than they are demanding,
06:03remains to be seen.
06:04But again, we're in a process of negotiation,
06:08and from a team of individuals who actually aren't covering themselves with glory,
06:14and their ability to negotiate things like this.
06:16So again, it's a very perilous situation in the Middle East
06:20as a consequence of this rather peculiar approach
06:23that the Trump administration has towards the Middle East
06:26and indeed to international politics more broadly.
06:29David, we really appreciate your time today.
06:31Thank you so much.
06:32That's Professor David Dunn,
06:34Professor of International Politics at Birmingham University.