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00:00Let's move on, Mike, to a team that you're very familiar with in the Pittsburgh Steelers
00:05as they get ready to take on the Baltimore Ravens.
00:08How shocked are you that this is almost a double-digit spread for the Ravens here, who
00:15won't have Zay Flowers, but boy, oh boy, that is a big number.
00:20Is it warranted in your eyes?
00:23It's warranted when you look at the last month, for sure.
00:26Obviously, the history of these teams, the Steelers have won eight of the last 10, and
00:29there's a lot of low-scoring games involved, but I think most people are looking at that
00:34game from just a couple of weeks ago and thinking, how could it be any different?
00:38I think the loss of Zay Flowers and the Steelers' inability to have any kind of punch in their
00:43offense, and this is not just a George Pickens thing.
00:47Joe, you and I talked about this.
00:48There are multiple issues here with this offense.
00:52Russ is the king of the throwaway pass now.
00:56If he doesn't find something he likes, he chucks it.
00:58He's not running, really, with any kind of regularity now.
01:04I don't think they helped Najee Harris out at all in the way that he needs to be helped
01:07out.
01:08A lot of very predictable short yardage and first-down runs do not allow him any space
01:14at all.
01:15So I expect a low-scoring game here, though.
01:19So nine and a half, when it's low-scoring, I'd shy away from that.
01:24I could see the Ravens covering here, but the Steelers, with that number historically
01:31under Mike Tomlin, that's a lot of points to lay.
01:34I'd be afraid to lay those points, especially when I'm expecting an under kind of game.
01:40What's the number here, Mike?
01:42I said earlier, if the Ravens get really past 21, I don't think the Steelers have a shot
01:46to win the game.
01:47Not that you're still covering to a certain extent, but if they want to win this game,
01:52there was a stretch, I was telling Joe, for a four-year span, where only once did either
01:57team get to 20.
01:58The Steelers won a 2019 game, but for four straight years, everything was under 40.
02:02So that's the only game script for the Steelers to win this thing.
02:06Agreed, but you know what's going to happen.
02:09They'll fail in the red zone, and Chris Boswell, who's basically the team MVP this year, will
02:13be out there kicking field goals.
02:15So 21 to 13 is probably a good number, where you're under the Ravens' almost cover, but
02:21not quite.
02:23That's really the heart of it, and the three of us talk about this a lot.
02:27If you're expecting an under game, you can't lay this level of points.
02:30You want the Ravens 20 to 10, and you want to thread the needle on an under and a cover,
02:35be my guest.
02:36It's just a very difficult thing to do.
02:38This is the game, guys, that amongst all of them, and it's not my fandom speaking, I'm
02:44having the toughest time on props, player props, because I expect so many unders.
02:50You can certainly bet unders on Najee or Derek Henry, whose number is all the way up to 100.
02:56The Steelers have been pretty good in containing him historically, but he did get over that
03:01number the last time they played.