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00:00Hello everybody, my name is Adam Cleary, welcome to 442, and Mikel Arteta, it's happened again.
00:11Now of course it is only the first leg of the Carabao Cup semi-final, nothing has been won or decided yet,
00:16but I think that performance by Newcastle United might have a shout as being the best one ever under Eddie Howe.
00:24When you factor in the opposition, the graft, the work rate, the occasion, what was at stake,
00:28every little thing like that, I certainly think it's in the conversation.
00:31But how? How did they do that?
00:34Well, in nerd-speak, it's because it was one of the most effectively adaptive tactical performances I have seen so far this season.
00:43That, and the f***ing ball apparently.
00:49Right, so here were your two teams, Newcastle United were without Bruno Guimaraes,
00:53without whom, since he signed for the club, they've never actually won a game of football.
00:58And that's true, by the way, he's missed seven games, they've lost four, drawn three, or something like that.
01:03And they were without Fabian Schär, who was very handsome.
01:06For Arsenal, there were two points of note.
01:08Firstly, Leandro Trossard was shunted all the way to the right-hand side because of the injuries to Pekkai Osaka and Ethan Nwanyeri,
01:14and they had Kai Havertz up front because Alexander Isak plays for Newcastle.
01:18But from the very moment those team sheets were handed in, you could see exactly what Newcastle's game plan was going to be.
01:24Because the obvious replacement is the industry, the work rate, the positional discipline, and the selflessness of Sean Longstaff,
01:31who was previously playing that position before they rejigged and put Tenali in the six.
01:35But it wasn't him, was it? It was Joe Willock.
01:38And what does Joe Willock give you besides the immortal line, come on you Maggies?
01:43Well, he gives you ball progression up the length of the pitch, he gives you good movement in the final third,
01:49and he gives you a really excellent high-pressing option.
01:52And those three things are precisely, in the first half, what Newcastle were doing.
01:57Like, it's a little bit spotty and certainly not the most dramatic one I've ever used,
02:00but if you look at Willock's heat map from that first 60 minutes that he was playing, you can see all of that in action.
02:06Because they did have to sit deep and they did have to drop in, because Arsenal are really, really good and they're playing at home.
02:11But when they did get out, boy did they get out.
02:15And of course, the key to that getting out was, I'm not going to shock you here,
02:20Alexander Isak.
02:22Like, I've got no qualms whatsoever about saying that Galiba and Sabriel are the best centre-back pairing in the Premier League.
02:29Yes, that was on purpose.
02:30They routinely bully Haaland when they play him, both on and off the ball,
02:34but neither of them seem to have a clue what to do with Isak here.
02:38Now, this is his heat map from the game as well.
02:40It doesn't really tell you too much, but it does show you just how frequently he was dropping away from the forward line
02:46and receiving the ball, sort of in these pockets.
02:49And what made all this movement so effective was the variation he had in it.
02:53Because sometimes, when Newcastle were in transition, he would look to be the one that made the runs in behind
02:58so they could find him with the ball.
03:00You can see him skipping through here quite happily.
03:02And when he did do that, if he got one-on-one with either of them,
03:05he showed that he was more than capable of going by them,
03:08which means they've got to be very cautious about how tight they get.
03:11But then on top of that, in a lot of transitions where you would expect him to be making a lot of runs,
03:15he would actually remain static and allow players to go beyond him
03:19so he could drop off and get on the ball.
03:22So it was impossible to know exactly where to be or exactly how to defend against him.
03:27Like, this moment with Jacob Murphy is just an unreal bit of play, right?
03:30You can see, as Newcastle win the ball, Arsenal are a little bit all over the place.
03:34Like, this is the shape they're back for.
03:36So Isak could very easily make a run into this space.
03:41And if you look, you can actually see Saliba, I think, starting to anticipate that.
03:45Like, he knows there is a gap to Isak, but he starts to drop off all the same, I think,
03:50because he's expecting that run.
03:51But then instead, he suddenly comes short and finds himself here.
03:56He's got loads of space to turn, and now Saliba doesn't really know what to do.
04:00Like, instinctively, in this situation, if you're a centre-back,
04:03you want to rush out and put the pressure on that player to stop them playing forward
04:07to try and turn them around and go back to their own goal.
04:09But Saliba's a very intelligent defender, and Arsenal work on these things during the week.
04:13They'll have known that a hallmark of Newcastle's play
04:17are these long, bursting runs from all the midfielders.
04:20So we can already see you've got Joe Linton, you've got Murphy, you've got Willock
04:24all beginning to run into that gap behind Arsenal.
04:28And if he over-commits there, if he jumps forward,
04:31he possibly leaves space for one of them to get into.
04:33So now he's kind of stuck.
04:35He should have gone in the first place, but he didn't,
04:37and now he can't really drop off too much, but he also can't go and challenge for it.
04:42Gordon will get on his bike at some point, Tonali's got a great engine,
04:45so if he over-commits and he doesn't win the ball,
04:47and possibly even again Isak skips by him,
04:50he'll just leave an enormous amount of space.
04:52So instead, he's got to then drop off, despite the fact there's nobody anywhere near him.
04:56And because of this sort of indecision, this impossible situation he's in,
05:00just gives Isak all the time in the world to play this frankly pornographic pass to Jacob Murphy.
05:07And were it not for this frankly brilliant and deadly serious foul by Leandro Trossard,
05:13Murphy likely rolls this back to Isak here, and he's got a really good chance.
05:17And I do genuinely want to highlight that pullback as quite a good thing,
05:21because this is the sort of team Arsenal have needed to become
05:25over the last 12 months.
05:27You've got to take a risk here and there, you can't just be a soft touch.
05:31Yes, if he gets caught by the referee, that is a really dangerous free kick,
05:3525 yards from goal and a yellow card, but he's let him go, he's lost him.
05:40Isak's in a really good position here, and if that ball comes back,
05:43the chance he's going to get is much better than a 25-yard free kick.
05:48So, do it.
05:49But he gets away with it, so it's a really smart bit of play.
05:52And so, by extension, is this.
05:55I feel like I'm going mad here, but I've genuinely seen quite a lot of hand-wringing
05:59over this, and I need bigger air quotes than I can do with my hands,
06:02push by Isak on Erdegaard.
06:05Like, yeah, OK, a really, really fussy referee might disallow a goal
06:11for something like that, but there's no appeal from Erdegaard whatsoever,
06:14so he clearly doesn't even think it's a foul.
06:16So if you can buy yourself the yard required to score a goal
06:19by just gently putting your hands on somebody's back and getting away with that,
06:24also brilliant.
06:25These are two examples of teams taking liberties with the rules
06:29to try and win a massive game of football.
06:33If anything about either of those pictures upsets you in any way,
06:38then that is a you problem.
06:41Go and have a bottle of milk, you f***ing baby.
06:44Anyway, yes, Alexander Isak's movement, that's what we were talking about.
06:47Obviously, it's just good strikers' instincts in that first goal.
06:50He buys himself.
06:51Oi, oi, a little bit of space finishes nicely with his left foot.
06:55But the second goal, that's what we're talking about.
06:58Here he is, standing completely idle, being marked by both centre-backs,
07:02and maybe I'm getting carried away here, but does it look to anybody else?
07:06Like, even their body language looks quite unsettled.
07:09Maybe I've entirely made that up, but also, maybe not.
07:14But as before, he darts into the gap between Arsenal's lines,
07:17and neither of the defenders feel confident getting drawn out with him.
07:22Just to remind you, he showed in the first half,
07:24he's capable of beating them one-on-one so smartly.
07:28It's not a criticism of them, I think they're doing the right thing.
07:30They're trying to avoid ending up in a situation
07:33where they come out of the back line, he skips around them, and he's in.
07:36This is Joe Willock here, and if you recall back five or six minutes ago
07:39when I said it, why is Joe Willock in the team?
07:42He's got no movement in the final third.
07:44He makes that run the opposite way to Isak,
07:47and that draws Arsenal's back line a little bit deeper,
07:51and creates this pocket of space.
07:53And this is an unreal pick-out by Jacob Murphy.
07:57Like, it looks like a fairly routine pass at first,
08:00but if he just pulls it at the moment he strikes the ball,
08:03he cannot see Isak.
08:06He does not know for definite that he's going to get into this space,
08:09but also, he does know for definite that he's going to get into this space
08:13because having an understanding and a partnership
08:15is a tangible, worthwhile thing.
08:18Like, at some point in the very near future,
08:20Newcastle are going to go out and spend something like £50 million
08:23on a really nice, exciting, shiny new right winger
08:27that they've been desperate for for years,
08:29and in every way, I imagine, he will be technically superior
08:33to Jacob Murphy.
08:35But you cannot, cannot buy an understanding between two players
08:40like these two seem to have.
08:42And it might come, don't get me wrong, you'd hope it would,
08:44but on day one, he will not have that.
08:47And genuinely, intangibles like that are worth something.
08:50Like, to Newcastle this season, they've been worth like seven goals.
08:53Anyway, yeah, touch is class, shot is class,
08:56and Gordon just gambles on where it's going a fraction quicker than Timber,
09:00and that's how it got to be 2-0.
09:03But how it stayed 2-0, that's what we're really here to talk about.
09:08Because the adaptive strategy that Eddie Howe employed in this game,
09:12I think, is maybe the single greatest thing I've seen him do
09:16from the touchline.
09:18Genuinely really impressive.
09:20So around the hour mark, Kai Havert somehow misses this chance
09:24that he should just put it in, but the ball hits his face,
09:26and Eddie Howe immediately turns to his bench and decides,
09:29right, okay, we've got something really good here.
09:32I'm not going to let us chuck it away.
09:34About three minutes later, off come Murphy, Isak, and Willock
09:37to be replaced by Longstaff, Kelly, and Barnes.
09:40Why those three specifically?
09:43Well, in the first half, those were Newcastle's three most aggressive players
09:47in the press.
09:48Like, they were jumping between a high press and sitting quite deep,
09:51but when they were putting the squeeze on Arsenal,
09:53you can see here it's Isak, it's Murphy, and it's Willock
09:56who were predominantly leading it.
09:58And that means two things, right.
09:59First of all, it's just in their mindset.
10:01They find themselves drawn to making these kind of runs
10:04and applying this kind of pressure.
10:06So you take them off, you curb the sides,
10:09most sort of undisciplined instincts, if that makes sense.
10:13And secondly, they'll also be the most tired.
10:16Like, just in the last seven days, Newcastle have been away
10:19to both Tottenham and Manchester United,
10:21and spent large chunks of the second half of both of those games
10:25not really seeing the ball.
10:26And it is very hard and very tiring to play football
10:30when you do not have the ball.
10:32But more importantly than all of that, this change also,
10:36just spread these lads out a bit, changed the shape.
10:40Lloyd Kelly coming on meant that Newcastle now had a back five
10:44with four in front, and Anthony Gordon left all on his own
10:47to go and chase things down.
10:48But even that only lasted about 10 minutes.
10:51After a particularly leggy Gallop up and down the pitch,
10:54he was replaced by Miguel Almiron, who, and I could not believe
10:58I saw him do this when I watched it in the pub,
11:00like I genuinely went, eh, really loudly,
11:03went 5-5.
11:05And that is mad.
11:08But just to give you a little bit of context here,
11:10I'll see if I can do these quick enough.
11:12Arsenal, just like Newcastle, they play with a 4-3,
11:17hurry up, Adam, 3, don't they?
11:20Well, no, actually, of course they don't,
11:22because when they're defending, that single pivot becomes a 2,
11:25both the wide players drop right back,
11:27Edegaard or whoever's in the midfield goes and presses up
11:29with the centre forward, and they defend, actually, in a 4-4-2.
11:33And then even when they get forward quite successfully,
11:35this 3 becomes a 5, because you get loads of support
11:38from everywhere else.
11:39They end up having two of them in the middle,
11:41and it becomes a 3-2-5.
11:43And they've got loads of ways of making that happen.
11:45Sometimes that's a centre back, sometimes that's a full back,
11:47sometimes that's a full back.
11:48They make this shape and this sort of amount of bodies
11:52appear in the final third.
11:53And if you're an Arsenal fan and you're watching this,
11:55yes, that is a grotesque oversimplification
11:58of how Arsenal play, but it's just to show
12:00that for whatever shape they have,
12:02they tend to at least have five players in the attacking line.
12:05And Newcastle, in the first half,
12:07were already adapting to this quite well,
12:09because if you imagine, they've got four at the back,
12:12that does leave them a little short, man for man here.
12:15Whenever Arsenal successfully played through the press
12:17and had to sit a little deeper,
12:18they were going to a flat 4-5-1,
12:21but they were adapting it already into a back five,
12:24depending on how Arsenal formed their front five.
12:28Like, it was really, really good.
12:29Basically, if they pushed Lewis Skelly all the way up
12:32to be the fifth player in this line,
12:33so they could let Odegaard drift a little deeper,
12:35then Jacob Murphy would come all the way back
12:38and they'd form the five that way.
12:40But Arsenal are very good.
12:41They have more than one way to skin the proverbial cat.
12:43Sometimes one of the defenders would go into this space
12:46and Odegaard would be in that front line.
12:48So when they did that, instead,
12:49Murphy would stay where he was
12:51and Joe Linton would drop into this left centre-back area.
12:55And for the first 50, 60 minutes,
12:57that worked really, really well.
12:59But Arteta is an excellent reactive manager
13:01to what's going on in front of him.
13:02He makes very positive, very smart changes.
13:05So when the second goal goes in, he changes it.
13:08He brings Jorginho and Jesus on for Trossard and Partey
13:12and basically just goes to hell with it.
13:153-1-6.
13:16They pushed Lewis Skelly up permanently,
13:18they pushed Odegaard up permanently,
13:20and it's basically a numbers thing.
13:22Like, you're trying to create an overload
13:23by having five in that line,
13:25but Newcastle are demonstrating
13:26that they're capable of dropping into a five
13:28and stopping you doing that.
13:29So how do you beat a five?
13:32With a six.
13:33So the reason Migi Almiron comes on going 5-5, lads,
13:36is because Newcastle's solution to this
13:38was to go to a natural back five
13:41with then three quite robust central midfielders
13:45in front of them.
13:46And he combined that with fresh legs,
13:47both on the left and the right,
13:48and this is virtually impossible.
13:50If everybody does their part and doesn't make a mistake
13:53and sort of keeps the lines nice and compact,
13:55that's virtually impossible to play through.
13:58So all you can do in that situation
13:59is sort of pass the ball around
14:01and start humping long, aimless, hopeful crosses
14:06into the box,
14:07which is normally quite a good idea for Arsenal
14:08because they're very good in the air,
14:09but now Newcastle not only have three centre-backs,
14:13one of which is the same height as the flippin' Big Show,
14:16but also three nigh-on six-foot-or-above
14:20robust central midfielders,
14:21and also Tino Liveromento's quite big.
14:24So Newcastle, aerially here, are not worried.
14:27And then, just to make matters worse,
14:29Newcastle are still more than capable
14:31of dropping Joe Linton into this back five
14:34to make it a six,
14:35with then four quite happily in front of it,
14:38and just, there was nothing,
14:40nothing Arsenal could do about this.
14:43Newcastle won 75% of all the aerial duels.
14:48So you can't play through them
14:50and you can't play over them.
14:51They cleared the ball in this game 48 times,
14:5640 of which were in the second half alone.
14:59Like, as a robust,
15:00and I keep saying adaptive defensive performance,
15:03because remember, they started the game
15:04pressing Arsenal really high
15:06and they just went back to this
15:07as Arsenal made changes themselves.
15:10It's one of the just most committed
15:13and impressive defensive displays
15:15I think I've seen all this season.
15:17Like, Martin de Bravka did not make one save
15:21in that entire second half.
15:23For all the ball and all the territory
15:25and all the possession, all the crosses,
15:26all the chances, everything,
15:27they didn't actually test the goalkeeper.
15:29Because I think it would be very easy
15:30to look at that and be like,
15:31oh, Eddie Howe just went really defensive.
15:33Oh, it was actually quite a negative thing to do.
15:35But like, it's such a dramatic
15:37and obvious change in tactics.
15:39He took Alexander Isak off after an hour.
15:42He took Anthony Gordon off after 70 minutes.
15:46He set this up so deliberately.
15:48If it backfired,
15:49if Arsenal had got a single goal
15:51or maybe even equalised,
15:52that is all, all on him.
15:55And because when you look
15:56at something like this on a screen,
15:58it's just so dramatically mental.
16:00You would never just say like,
16:02oh, well, you know,
16:03Arsenal are a better side.
16:04They broke through eventually.
16:05You would go, no, he sat too far back.
16:08He did this crazy thing.
16:10And they went from 2-0 up to drawing 2-2.
16:13Like, that's, that takes balls, man.
16:17Just enormous balls.
16:19And not to overly stress this point, right,
16:21but Eddie Howe gets a lot of criticism
16:23for sort of his substitutions
16:25and his tactical analysis.
16:26He's seen as a very good motivator
16:27and he sets his teams up well.
16:28But in terms of being one of these elite managers
16:31that can influence things from the sidelines
16:33and do stuff like this,
16:34that's not really how people think of him.
16:37So if he'd done this and it backfired,
16:40that's, that's a lot of scrutiny
16:43to put yourself under.
16:44But he did it.
16:45He genuinely thought that was a good way
16:47to hang on to that 2-0 lead.
16:49And it was.
16:51You can say what you want about Arsenal,
16:53maybe not having a bit of luck
16:54and on another day,
16:55one of those chances maybe goes in.
16:56But I only deal in facts.
16:59I can only talk about facts.
17:01And it finished 2-0.
17:03And they did that.
17:04And the two things are related.
17:06Just proper British
17:09heed the ball, eggs and chips defending.
17:11You love to say it.
17:12So yes, that's how Newcastle United beat Arsenal.
17:15Again, and before I go,
17:17someone has already done the research
17:19on the ball and whether or not
17:20that makes any difference to Arsenal.
17:21And no, it doesn't.
17:24He doesn't actually think that.
17:26He said it because that's now
17:27two disappointing results in a row.
17:29There's a few big players underperforming
17:31and they may come in
17:32for some unnecessary scrutiny or pressure.
17:34So if you're a manager,
17:35straight out of the Mourinho playbook,
17:37you say a mad thing,
17:38you say an insane thing
17:40and all the focus then goes on to you.
17:44Nobody is talking about
17:45the underperformances now.
17:46Everybody's talking about the ball.
17:48It's good management.
17:49But as ever,
17:50I'm sure the response to this
17:51will be very reasonable
17:52and balanced and sane.
17:53Please let me know what you made of the game
17:54and your thoughts on the second leg
17:56because nobody's won anything yet.
17:59I'm certainly not booking
18:01any hotels for Wembley,
18:03mostly because I live in London
18:04and wouldn't have to.
18:05But let me know what you think
18:06is going to happen in the second leg
18:07in the comments down below.
18:08And of course,
18:09don't forget to like the video,
18:10share it with your pals.
18:11That's nice.
18:12And subscribe to us here on 442
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18:15in my opinion.
18:16And get me across all the social medias
18:18at Adam Cleary, C-L-E-R-Y,
18:19where you can possibly even read a thing
18:21I wrote about why Alexander Isak
18:23never scores with his left foot,
18:25which I published precisely one day
18:27before it scored with his left foot.
18:29So for more searing insight like that,
18:32that's Adam Cleary, C-L-E-R-Y,
18:34Twitter, Instagram,
18:36I forget what they're all called.
18:37I'm there, I'm everywhere.
18:38Until next time though,
18:39thank you very much for joining us.
18:40That was an immensely enjoyable game
18:41for me, a Newcastle fan, to watch.
18:43But hopefully,
18:44you found the analysis
18:46fair and impartial
18:48and level-headed
18:49and not getting carried away
18:50with anything.
18:51We're going to win the club!
18:53Bye.
18:54Bye.
18:55Bye.
18:56Bye-bye.