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00:00I'd speak it of injuries. We hope none of them are as significant for the Eagles. The four teams
00:06competing on conference championship Sunday in the injury reports published yesterday from the
00:11first full day of practice. When I say full day of practice, I just mean back on the turf, not
00:17necessarily pads popping an Oklahoma drill like this is the middle of August. But Jalen Hurts,
00:23of course, with the knee injury limited yesterday, as was Quinn Yon Mitchell, A.J. Brown,
00:29knee rest. Lane Johnson, knee rest. Did not practice. Tight end Dallas Goddard,
00:35an outstanding young center in Cam Juergens. DRS, are you reading between the tea leaves
00:41first and foremost for your birds? Yeah, and I think they're going to be okay and they're going
00:46to play. But the question is, look, you can always reinjure. Quinn Yon Mitchell's got a
00:49shoulder. You take another shoulder shot that could hurt. Jalen Hurts gets sacked and falls
00:53the wrong way on that knee. It can certainly happen. But when you're looking at like the
00:57bigness of the game, like Hugh Douglas, always get a kick out of your former defensive end for
01:01the build up the Eagles. He always used to say, when you're playing big games in the NFL and you
01:04need help, you go see Dr. Bombay and he gets you right. And you play that football game because
01:09it's the end of the season. Maybe you don't do that in weeks three or weeks four. How about this
01:13bad? You ever see the movie Varsity Blues get ready for a big game? Lance Harbor. Come on, man.
01:17Stick that needle right into the knee. Get out there and let's perform and let's win a football
01:21game. Hey, man, that's what happens. Whether it's movies or real life, man, you got to play. You
01:25got to do things that you got to get yourself out there. And sometimes, hey, man, it's got to take
01:29a little bit extra. Dr. Donnie, you're really kind of implicated in yourself and perhaps your
01:36medical practices here on this Thursday on the early line for the commanders, by the way,
01:42Olamide Zaccheaus limited at practice DNP, a couple of significant figures for Washington,
01:49the former Eagle in Zach Earths and the linebacker Bobby Wagner and Duran Payne, two consistent
01:57defensive players for Washington. But Donnie, you said before, as we were breaking down the injury
02:03reports, unless it is a season ending injury where you are not going to play again this year
02:09in Conference Championship Sunday or Super Bowl Sunday, we would still expect you to be out there,
02:15at least in some capacity, come this weekend. Yes, correct. And if you're looking at those
02:20two teams here, Bobby Wagner has been battling that ankle injury played last week. Of course,
02:24you're going to give him as much time off as you need as a veteran guy to get himself right for
02:28Sunday. And the Eagles will do the same thing. Do you think Quinion Mitchell is doing Oklahoma
02:32tackling drills this week in practice? See if his shoulder is OK? No, they're going to rest
02:36it and hope he feels good. Same thing with Dallas Goddard worried about an ankle injury.
02:40It's all in the mix. Understand this. When you enter into the regular season week, number one,
02:44you know, there's going to be attrition through injuries. Just the fact that these guys are
02:48banged up and healthy enough to play after 18 weeks and a playoff run. It's amazing that these
02:54guys are still getting out of bed on Monday, Tuesday, lucky enough to walk around and trying
02:59to get themselves ready for Sunday. So credit these guys. And we talk about modern day gladiators at
03:03the end of a season. These football players are exactly that. On the AFC side of things,
03:09the Chiefs actually pretty healthy. We did see Taylor Rapp, of course, for Buffalo, the safety
03:15who made the pick in the opening half of Lamar Jackson exit the game with what appeared to be
03:20a significant hip injury. I would not be surprised, of course, if he does not play on Sunday in KC.
03:28Let's get you ready for conference championship weekend in the National Football League.
03:33As we win with Zen Mark Zeno here for a third consecutive segment that a preview conference
03:39title Sunday around the NFL. So we go in reverse order. We start with the AFC championship game
03:46inside Arrowhead to very familiar foes in the postseason for the fourth time in the last five
03:52years. It's the Chiefs and the Bills meeting in the playoffs for the second time in that five
03:58year window in an AFC championship game in Arrowhead. And you see 34 cents of difference
04:05mark in terms of that money line price total stands at 47 and a half. Just how competitive
04:12do you expect Sunday night's game in the AFC championship to actually be?
04:18The Bills are winning this game. I don't need to say it anymore. The Bills are winning this game.
04:23There's not a doubt in my mind. I mean, listen, I'll be chalky as hell and I'll still tease the
04:28Bills and I'll tease them with the Eagles down to a pick them. Fine. I don't care. The Bills are
04:32winning this game. Take them on the money line. Take the one and a half. The Bills are winning
04:35this game. This is, there is just not, here's the very simple formula for Buffalo. Okay.
04:43Challenge this passing offense of the Chiefs to go ahead and beat you. That's it. I mean,
04:48if you look at the matchup earlier between these two teams, the Bills held the Kansas
04:54City Chiefs under a hundred rushing yards and barely 200 passing yards. And here's the thing,
04:58and I kept saying this all week long, and I've said this all season long that Josh Allen has
05:01to overcome two things in every single game, the team that he's playing in his head coach,
05:05because Sean McDermott is the liability here. But I would tell Sean McDermott,
05:09never pass up an opportunity at points in this game, because in reality, guess what?
05:13If you get to 24, you know what the Chiefs can't do? Score more than that. They've told you that
05:18all season long, not without help. If you don't beat yourself and you get to 24, the Chiefs
05:23cannot win this game because they can't score more than that. That's the reality of this Chiefs
05:28offense at this point in time. So Buffalo is winning this game. They will finally slay the
05:32dragon and they will be heading to New Orleans in the Super Bowl. I will be a Buffalo fan this
05:38weekend in this football game. I just don't know if I can bring myself to bet the Buffalo Bills.
05:42Hey, Bill's getting six and a half, seven and a half. We're all in there. Chiefs just to win the
05:45game. That's the tough part. And also at the FanBlue Sportsbook, you click that little tab
05:49that says statistics, 60% of the spread bets coming in right now on the Buffalo Bills. Let's
05:54turn our attention to Philadelphia, where 70% of the tickets are going in on the Washington
06:01Commanders. That line opened up at four and a half at FanDuel. We now see six and a half at
06:05FanDuel in Philadelphia. By the way, the thing that I do like too, Mark, we're not worried about
06:09weather conditions in either city. How are we feeling about this Commander's Eagles game on
06:12Sunday? This brings us to the weekly part of our segment where something comes out of my mouth and
06:18Ben Stevens' eyes roll back, his head tilts, and he looks quizzically at the camera because I'm...
06:23We've already done that, by the way.
06:24I know we already did when I said we'd have gotten there. But here we go for take two.
06:29I'm going to say something that's going to bother many people. The Washington
06:34Commanders didn't win last week. The Detroit Lions lost. Okay.
06:37That's cool. I like this. I like the start here.
06:40The Commanders did not win. The Lions gave the game away with five turnovers. And notably,
06:44the game turned on one play. The sack fumbled. Instead of it being 14-3,
06:48they were down 10-7, and they were chasing the rest of the way.
06:51I say that to say they're not in the same category as this Eagles team.
06:55I've seen the Commanders step up in class all year long, and I've seen them come up short.
06:59The only reason the Commanders beat the Eagles earlier this year in Washington was because
07:04Jalen Hurts went out of the game in the first quarter with a concussion, and some guy who
07:06was imitating the position of quarterback named Kenny Pickett played the rest of that game.
07:11That's not happening here. Washington will not have an answer for Saquon Barkley.
07:16I would lay the six and a half. They're not walking into the Lincoln Financial and being
07:24competitive in this game. Dan Quinn's done a hell of a job, and Jayden Daniels is a heck
07:28of a quarterback. But let's be real about what this is. There's a reason why only one or two
07:33rookies have ever made it to a conference championship game and never made it to a Super
07:37Bowl, because you can't run into luck that many times in a row. As long as Philadelphia doesn't
07:42beat themselves, they should win this thing handily. So it sounds like to me that Mark
07:47Zinnow's Super Bowl prediction in New Orleans is the Eagles and the Bills. So Zinnow, as we
07:54enter Conference Championship Sunday, looking at where those Super Bowl 59 odds are right now,
08:00who would you like to wager on? Well, again, I mean, my heart is with Buffalo,
08:05and so will my money also be there. Look, I hope Washington does upset Philadelphia,
08:10so Buffalo has an easier chance at winning a title like that. I actually do hope happens,
08:13but it's not going to. So look, I mean, I've backed the Bills all year long. I'm not walking
08:18off of them now. My absolute nightmare is the Eagles' Chiefs Super Bowl. If I have to watch
08:24that again, there would be blood splatter of my own somewhere along the line, because
08:28I would have to root for Philadelphia harder than I've ever rooted for in my life, and I'm not doing
08:33it. Let's go, Mark. You have time to appear tomorrow on a Football Friday. With that breakdown,
08:37I think we might need you for a couple of segments to get ready for the game Sunday.
08:41I think so. I think I'm going to book you tomorrow myself. I like this. I like this.
08:45We'll be right back. We'll be right back. I think we'll be back. Yeah, we'll be back.
08:49Let's get you ready for Conference Championship weekend in the National Football League. We will
08:54start with the marquee matchup on Sunday evening inside Arrowhead Stadium between the Chiefs
09:00and the Bills. Donnie, of course, we have made note of the many times these two teams have faced
09:06off against one another in the last five NFL seasons here in similar spots in playoff football.
09:122020 AFC Championship game in Arrowhead. 2021 Divisional round in Arrowhead. Last year in the
09:20Divisional round in Western New York, and now back inside Arrowhead Stadium in the AFC Championship
09:27game for the 2024 campaign. And let's go right to the numbers. 34 cents of difference. That is it
09:35on the money line. 4KC minus 126. The Bills a very slight dog in Kansas City plus 108. Donnie,
09:44it's almost a similar question to Buffalo getting ready to host its own division around matchup
09:49last weekend against Baltimore. At this stage, I asked you, do you agree with the odds,
09:55or do you give the edge to the other side? When you look at how close the numbers are
10:00on the money line, who gets the edge in your mind entering the AFC title game?
10:05It's simple for me, and I understand this. We just had Mark Zinner one. I'm saying to myself,
10:09like, I am actually rooting for the Buffalo Bills, not because it's saying, okay, I think the Eagles
10:13match up better with the Bills or Kansas City. But just from a fan perspective and a content
10:17perspective, we do a lot of Super Bowls around here, and it's just boring talking about the
10:20same things and the same matchups, and one team always gets there. The Buffalo Bills are a fun
10:25story. There'd be nothing better than the Buffalo Bills going into Kansas City and vanquishing those
10:29playoff demons and moving on to a Super Bowl, something we haven't seen for the Buffalo Bills
10:33since the early 1990s, when they lost four straight Super Bowls. It's a great fan base.
10:38They'll be passionate. They'll show out in New Orleans, no doubt about it. But from a money
10:41perspective, I got to be honest, like, I'm surprised that 70% of the betting public,
10:46at least at the FanDuel Sportsbook, is lining up ticket-wise just to take the Buffalo Bills.
10:50We're not knocking the Bills, Ben. We're not saying they don't deserve to be there. They
10:53absolutely do. They beat one of the most talented teams in football last week and moved on to face
10:58the Kansas City Chiefs. But it once again gets down to this compelling notion. We're not looking
11:02at the Chiefs going like, oh, I wonder if that ankle is healthy from Holmes. It's 100% healthy.
11:06You gave Travis Kelsey a couple weeks off. He looks rejuvenated, as good as ever,
11:10catching the football and running after the catch. You take a look at the offensive line
11:14that's shifting around players from guard to tackle, and it's worked out, and a defense that's
11:18one of the best in the NFL with a great defensive coordinator. And then the other opportunity as
11:22well, you can't take Kansas City, Ben, at eight-and-a-half points at home. You know they're
11:26probably going to win but not cover. And then you go, wait a second. You're just asking Patrick
11:31Holmes, Andy Reid, and the Chiefs to win a football game by a field goal at home, and you move on and
11:37cash a ticket? How do you actually pass that up based on what we've seen? Yeah, Donnie, I think
11:43it's a great point, right? 0-6 now officially against the number, closing as a nine-and-a-half
11:48point favorite against Houston last weekend as a touchdown favorite or greater. You're not asking
11:54Kansas City to win by a touchdown. Frankly, the best bet if you're going to approach the Chiefs
11:58is just eat a little bit of chalk on minus-126 on the money line and simply ask KC to win an
12:05AFC Championship game, something they have done four times in the last six years, something
12:11Buffalo has not with Josh Allen under center in the direct head-to-head matchup against Kansas City.
12:18We have stressed it before, but it does bear repeating. This will be the fourth matchup in
12:23the last five years in the postseason. We have seen some great games between these two, but the
12:28most lopsided was the 2020 AFC Championship game. Both teams are widely different. Both quarterbacks
12:34have experienced so much since then, but it was a 38-24 win for KC. In fact, not only are the
12:41Chiefs perfect 3-0 straight up against Buffalo in the postseason, they are also perfect against
12:47the number. Now let's talk about that total DRS, 47-and-a-half. Knowing what we have seen
12:54out of Kansas City this year, natural thought would be, hey, the Chiefs are even going to win
12:59this football game by a point. They probably make it a little bit uglier. It's probably not the
13:04shootout we saw between these two in the divisional round back in the 2021 NFL postseason. Kansas City
13:11probably wins this game 21-17 and really grinds it out on the defensive side of the football.
13:18Just how much scoring do you anticipate DRS for Sunday night? I do think we get scoring here
13:25because the one thing that we have to understand is Kansas City will be happy to replicate the way
13:29you want to play and beat you doing that. You want to get high scoring, Kansas City can score points.
13:33But theoretically, say, well, they don't have to do that that much this year because their defense
13:36has been so good. And I say this, like, if Buffalo can get out to a lead in Kansas City,
13:41is anybody turning the TV off if Kansas City is down 17-7 at the break? Oh,
13:47they can't come back for that. Like, no, we've seen times in the past, particularly as I talked
13:51about that Houston Texans game earlier in the playoffs a couple years ago, where they were
13:55down three touchdowns in the first half and had to lead by the half. It's what they do. They're
13:58talented enough to come back. But having said that, Buffalo isn't that team where you're going
14:02to just say coming into it, we're going to hold down that offense. We're going to play great
14:05defense, get first downs, eat the clock and make the plays that we need to. Because dating back to
14:10the Jets game earlier this season, they scored 23 points. After that, 34, 31, 30, 30, 30, 35,
14:1642, 48, 24 and 40. And you remove the final game against the Patriots where they scored 16 points
14:22with their backups. So if you're looking at the Kansas City Chiefs, you see those team totals.
14:26I find it very difficult to say to myself that the Buffalo Bill is 23 and a half. Whether they
14:30win or lose, they're probably going to cross that number. They're talented. They don't care
14:34what defense you're playing. Josh can get after it in the air, on the ground. They have a talented
14:38running back that can hit home runs and they have opportunistic wide receivers and a solid set of
14:42tight ends. So when we're looking at points, as I said earlier in the week, I want to believe this
14:47game goes over because I don't think the MO for the Buffalo Bills is let's just keep them hanging
14:52around at this point. You know, must stay aggressive, but they're known for scoring mid-20s
14:56and higher every single game. What's to be the determination where they can't do that in this
15:01game? We should get points. And something says to me Donnie, right? The Chiefs this year have not
15:06been overly impressive. They have not been dominant offensively even last week in the
15:11victory against the Texans. It wasn't crisp on the offensive side outside of Mahomes really
15:17just to Travis Kelsey. I think Casey answers the bell offensively and I think Patrick Mahomes
15:23does as well. 249 and a half is the passing yards prop for Mahomes. Of course, this will be the
15:30seventh consecutive year that Kansas City has played in an AFC championship game. In the previous
15:37six, last year was his lowest passing total 241. It was also the only year Donnie, he did not throw
15:44for at least 294 yards in multiple passing scores. The best bet that I have made already for the AFC
15:51championship game is Mahomes over 249 and a half. I think he matches the occasion and the atmosphere
15:59on Sunday night in Arrowhead. A closing thought on the AFC championship game before we get to
16:05Philadelphia and the NFC title games next. We preview conference championship Sunday. One final
16:12thought on the quarterback comparison that will have all the eyes DRS in Arrowhead. The Chiefs,
16:18Patrick Mahomes, the Bills, Josh Allen. I mentioned I'm going over 249 and a half for Mahomes'
16:23passing yards prop. I know it has not been illustrious at times this season offensively for
16:29KC. Missed the most significant stage and until I see it happen, I'm not believing Mahomes bows out
16:36just yet. But Josh Allen in the prior three matchups against KC in their playoff lives together
16:42has gone well over that rushing yards prop. At least 68 yards utilizing his legs on the ground
16:48in the three previous tilts against Kansas City. Yeah, no, and it's a good look there because
16:54Patrick Mahomes obviously will be a catalyst. That running game not as explosive we saw in the past
16:58like when Isaiah Pacheco first hit the ground running for Kansas City. Wow, found their guy
17:02that can be a short yardage guy, can break long runs. Those injuries have really slowed him down.
17:06So when looking at the touchdown market, throwing over one and a half makes sense from Mahomes. But
17:10also keep in mind the touchdown market combined for this game, you get 47 and a half points. So
17:15you just sound like, oh, there's going to be a lot of high price guys. If you wanted them to just find
17:20pay dirt on the fan, little sports book yesterday, Josh Allen was actually a plus 100 for an
17:24anytime touchdown. Love that today he's minus 105, but he's the highest juice player in this game
17:30at minus 105 for a total near 50 points. You're going to be able to find some value going down
17:34that board because if we're expecting, let's just say three touchdowns each, that's six total
17:39touchdowns and the highest price on the board is minus 105. There could be some good values
17:44on that for Sunday. Two rushing touchdowns for Josh against Baltimore last weekend,
17:49two rushing touchdowns for Josh last year in a matchup in the divisional round against Kansas
17:55City, 60% of the money or 60% of the bets on the spread backing Buffalo right now. But basically,
18:04of course, as we know, it is near a pick them 70% of the bets on the spread for the NFC
18:11championship game. First up on Sunday on Jaden Daniels and the commanders. So tell me DRS,
18:18when the line opened on Sunday evening at four and a half in favor of the birds and we're getting
18:2470% of the action on Washington. Why is this line now near a touchdown in favor of Philadelphia?
18:32Yeah, it's pretty wild the way you look at it because the Eagles are a good ball club. They
18:36didn't wind up in this position by getting lucky late in the season. Like they've been very good.
18:39The number one overall defense in the NFL. You take a look at Jalen Hurts has been underwhelming
18:44in the past game. Yes, but he's learned not to turn the football over. And every time you hand
18:48off, it feels like every four carries is a home run hit by running back Saquon Barkley. But the
18:53one thing I do understand about handicapping and gambling is there's odds makers and there's the
18:58betting public because opening that line at four and a half, I thought showed a lot of respect for
19:02Washington. And the thought process behind that was maybe we're not going to get a healthy enough
19:06Jalen Hurts to play next week to be effective. As you still see at the Fandul Sportsbook,
19:1170% of the tickets still coming in on the Washington Commanders. And that line moves
19:15up two full points, which should give you pause if you're a Washington backer. Now,
19:19me being around the block, that is an Eagles line, no doubt about it. Am I running to the
19:23window to take the six and a half today as I'm so excited to do that? Not necessarily,
19:28but understand the products of their environment. Everybody expected a great punch from the Green
19:32Bay Packers. Eagles handled their business and outside of a collapse over the final two minutes
19:36to get to almost two touchdowns for the Rams, the Eagles were double digits there for the
19:40primarily parts of that second half. And still they were favored by six, six and a half and
19:45pushed and or covered depending on when you got those numbers earlier in the week. So the
19:49Eagles are expected to win. They're the better football team. But again, I'm not overly excited
19:53at saying, yes, let me lay close to a touchdown in this game. Same exact total DRS for our two
20:00championship matchups, 47 and a hook for both, including here, of course, at the link. How much
20:06scoring do we see on Sunday in Philly? 47 and a half. You should say it's going over. Washington's
20:14offense has been red hot. They can get after it. But the one thing we understand, five turnovers
20:19helped a lot of points being gained for Washington this past weekend. The Eagles don't turn the
20:24football over. It's going to be much harder to do that. So I'm going to have a propensity in this
20:28one to say I probably lean towards under 47 and a half because I think that clock is going to be
20:33churning and say Quan Barkley and Eagles offensive line outside of hitting 70 yard home runs. They
20:39should rule the day here. If you're looking at 25 plus carries for Saquon Barkley and he's just
20:43doing his average, let's just say five yards per carry. That's going to be a lot of first downs
20:48and a lot of time off that clock. Ben Donnie, as we always say, right, the natural handicapping
20:54approach to a big favorite in this case in a conference championship game laying near a
20:59touchdown. You need points available. You need scoring to be higher. If Philly is going to win
21:04by a touchdown, you should see as many points as possible. But I actually think it's the opposite.
21:09If the birds handle this game, they handle Jaden Daniels and that commander's offense,
21:14and it stays under the number of 47 and a hook. We'll dive deeper into those quarterback numbers
21:20from the proper perspective, getting you ready for conference championship weekend with TV Tom
21:26Vecchio up next. No one better than to set the stage for conference championship Sunday in the
21:32NFL from that proper perspective than TV Tom Vecchio of Sports Grid live right here on Sports
21:39Grid on this Thursday on the early line. Still early in the week, Tom, before a ton of the betting
21:45public will come in and fluctuate these numbers that we will see. So we love the early approach to
21:51what we have from the prop perspective for conference championship weekend. Let's dive right
21:56in. Yeah, let's get to it. We have a ton to get through. Obviously, I was here on here on Tuesday,
22:03actually, not Monday, Tuesday, Ben, you weren't here. And we were talking through some of those
22:06player props. Some of those lines have already moved. So it's obviously like you said, it's good
22:12to be on things early. And it's also important to note how these teams are going to play because
22:17I think I have a very specific approach for how I think Buffalo will try and come away with this
22:21win. And it's probably not turning this game into a shootout. Which is interesting, Tom, because when
22:26you look at the numbers for that AFC championship game in Arrowhead, it is basically a pick them
22:32about 34 cents of difference on the money line and a total of 47 and a half. So you see those
22:38numbers in Buffalo trying to exercise the demon of their playoff nemesis being the Chiefs at this
22:44time of year. How do you expect the game to look if the bills are hunting that upset?
22:50Oh, I'm feeling like a 2320 kind of game 2423. I think we're gonna be super close to the number,
22:57you know, a 2320 final could be a Mahomes drive that leads them to kicking a field goal to win
23:03the game and break the tide. Ultimately, like, how do the bills prevent that? Because
23:08what we always have this conversation about, like, oh, our team's playing to win,
23:11are they playing not to lose? Like, the bills don't want to put the ball in Mahomes hands as
23:15often as possible. And how do you do that? It's I honestly think it's through the running game.
23:19And, you know, Josh Allen was okay last week. Let's just call it what it was. So I think the
23:24three headed backfield that they have with Cook, Johnson and Ray Davis for the bills, I think
23:29they're all going to see a good amount of work. So I'm not sure I love Cook to have a massive game
23:34on the ground. I actually think it's gonna be very balanced backfield and keeping the ball out
23:37of Mahomes his hand late is how the bills will come away with the victory. That's if they I don't
23:41have a strong take either side. Anyone who says that they have a strong take either side is lying
23:44to themselves and lying to you guys. I think we're in for a one possession game and it's going to be
23:49determined in the final five minutes of the fourth quarter. And if the bills were to come away with
23:53the win, it's keeping the ball out of Mahomes hands with the running game. Exactly. Better be
23:57taking knees at the end of the football game, not giving 16 seconds or so back over to the
24:02Chiefs to try to beat you or you into overtime. Let's take a look at that quarterback matchup.
24:06None really better. Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen squared up here. The total is coming in on Patrick
24:11Mahomes at 249 and a half and Josh Allen at 230 and a half for his passing yards. And then the
24:17touchdown props wildly different here to throw two touchdowns for Mahomes. That's a minus 154
24:22price for Josh Allen. It's plus 136. How are we playing the quarterbacks on Sunday, Tom?
24:27I think it's reasonable to play Mahomes under 36 and a half passing attempts. I specifically like
24:32that. I also don't mind Mahomes over on the rushing as he apparently rushes every single
24:37playoff game he's ever been in constantly scrambling and getting those yards. Allen is
24:42tough. It is really tough considering, you know, last week's feelings get to 150 combined yards.
24:47I don't know how we look to 230 passing yards alone. And also if you were to get 230 passing
24:52yards probably means that they're playing from behind. And at that point, the Chiefs money line
24:57would probably be the best bet. If he has to push for 250 passing yards, things probably didn't go
25:02the way the bills would want things to go. Like this, the script got out of control. And we're
25:06looking back at that overtime game. They had a couple of years ago where it's like 40 to 35,
25:10whatever the final score was for that thing. We were both throwing three or four touchdowns.
25:14I don't think the bills want to have Josh Allen throwing the ball for 250 yards. Does not say
25:18that he can't do it. I just don't think that's the game plan for this week. Not a great yardage
25:23output for Josh Allen against Baltimore, but did find pay dirt twice. Now let's go to the NFC
25:29championship game. Same total as the AFC title game at 47 and a half, but a very different spread.
25:35It's very close for the AFC championship. It's nearly a touchdown now in favor of Philadelphia,
25:42Tom, in terms of the numbers dictating the game flow of what we are going to see
25:46at Lincoln financial field. How does this game differ in your mind?
25:51Not only the game flow, but I have concerns with Brian Robinson for Washington. He's been okay.
25:57Like this year, like, and especially as of late, I know he broke off a couple of big runs last
26:00week, but he was not good versus Tampa on the ground. So if he's been okay, and I just personally
26:05just don't have a lot of confidence in him, Austin Eckler is continuing to get involved
26:08and they're going to be playing from behind. What does that turn to for Washington? It's
26:12probably turning to Washington, moving the ball effectively through the air,
26:16whether it's Tara McLaurin, whether it's the army Brown, but ultimately that comes down to Daniels
26:20because we know that he's going to be spreading it around. Like Zachary's is, you know, being
26:24involved, especially the second half of the season to close the year. He was very good.
26:27So I think turning to Jane Daniels over 21 and a half completions is my favorite bat for probably
26:33this entire weekend. They, this is what they've done the entire season. Cliff Kingsbury and the
26:37offense moved the ball effectively. Uh, you know, he has to scramble the pocket, whatever it might
26:41be, get completions, pick up first downs, limit mistakes for Daniels. That's, he has been awesome
26:45at this year. The completion percentage was through the roof, especially for the first portion
26:49of the season. So picking up completions and effectively moving the ball down the field,
26:52whether it turns into points and they go for on fourth down, they don't convert wherever it might
26:56be, but picking up first downs and sustaining drives will be the winning recipe. If the
27:00commanders keep it close, I don't think they win this game, but they will keep it at least somewhat
27:04close. All right. It looks like we have to book Tom Beck, you know, again for tomorrow's football
27:08Friday, because apparently he's on the right side here of this Philadelphia Eagles game, but Sundays
27:12are for Saquon. Some of these numbers, Tom, outrageous. It feels like you look at the
27:17carries prop in modern day NFL, 24 and a half. You take a look at the rushing prop, which if
27:23handles one 25 and have other outlets, Tom closer to one 30. You look at the receiving yards, 12
27:28and a half. You're looking for probably just one reception, but the touchdown prop minus two 50
27:33How do you approach taking Saquon Barkley this weekend? Or is it just not enough value left in
27:39some of these numbers? There's probably not a lot of value left in a lot of these numbers,
27:43but there's one spot to go and it wasn't listed there. And it's going to be Saquon over longest
27:49rushing attempt, which I believe is 21 and a half or 20 and a half, 22 and a half. It's somewhere
27:54around there. Last week, it was 19 and a half. I expected it to move up. It is. How many times have
27:58we said it, Donnie? Obviously, Kevin always talking about it, the home run potential from Saquon.
28:03That's what we see literally every week. And it's not just like, Oh, he breaks off like a 25 yard
28:06carry or a 30 yard carry. It's like, it's like 60 or 70 yards. So if you don't want to play the
28:11one 30 rushing yards, I get it. You want to play the combined. I get it carries the over longest
28:15rush. He can do that at any time. And you would think if he gets close to a buck 25 on the ground,
28:21there will be a bunch, if not at least one big plays running the football. Let's talk about
28:28Jaden Daniels, who you mentioned your favorite bet over 21 and a half completions and Jalen hurts.
28:34I do want to focus on the birds QB, of course, dealing with the ailing and injured left knee in
28:41Beck, yo, despite his team being nearly a touchdown favorites when a conference championship,
28:46it appear at a second Superbowl in the last three years, those numbers on Jalen hurts more than
28:51likely because of the injury issue are drastically low. How will you approach betting? Jalen hurts
28:58entering Sunday, or do you wait until we get to kick Sunday to see exactly how he looks in the
29:04game? There's only one spot that I would go with hurts this weekend. This is just like,
29:08if you want to have action on hurts, whatever it might be, I understand like all thing him down
29:13and putting in him into some SGP, which, you know, I'm not super fond of, but I think it has to be
29:18passing touchdowns because I'm not laying the juice for Saquon. I do expect the Eagles to win
29:22in score points. If he has this knee issue, will there be a few, uh, you know, lesser chances for
29:28him to have a tush push? They're just not going to put him in that position and then just be a
29:32passing touchdown here or there. So the passing touchdown prop for hurts may be the best way to
29:37go. Okay. I think the Eagles win. I maybe don't want to lay six and a half points and I'm not
29:41going to lay the juice on, but we know that hurts can have the passing touchdowns to a God or to an
29:46AJ Brown. So those are the quarterback comparisons and Tom, let's make sure before we send you off
29:53into the weekend here on the early line, we get all of those top prompts run through them quickly.
29:57If you wouldn't mind. Yeah. Keon Coleman just don't expect him to play a huge role for the
30:02bills in the passing game under 23 and a half receiving yards that moved as that line has moved
30:05to 20 marquees Brown under three and a half receptions. He's not going to have, he needs
30:09to have at least six targets, seven targets to get to four, which I don't expect to happen.
30:13Just give him the snap camp that he has an overall target chair and then turning to Daniels. I do
30:16think he will be in for a solid game. The rush can certainly be there if they are playing from
30:20also for tonight on the ice, Andre's fraction of cough for the Carolina hurricanes over two
30:24and a half shots on goal, at least a team with 133 going up against the Blue Jackets on the second
30:28night of the back-to-back since start of January, the canes legally in Portia and the Blue Jackets
30:32are the sixth most shot attempts allowed per six minutes in five, five situations. And in NBA PJ
30:37Washington over 14 and a half points, the Jack of all trades, the prompt perspective with TV,
30:43Tom Vacchio, none better. Tom, thank you so much more on the early ride next.