IHSG -1,36% ke 7.068,57 di sesi I Kamis (30/1). Sektor barang baku -2,64% AMMN -6% dan jadi beban terbesar IHSG. Sektor properti dan real estate -1,49% PANI -3,93%. Sektor infrastruktur -1,41% BREN -3,39%. Sektor perindustrian -0,96% ASII -1,23%. Sektor keuangan -0,84% BBRI 1,91% BBCA -1,60% sentuh level terendah dalam 6 bulan terakhir. Sementara sektor teknologi +0,58% EMTK +3,70%.
Dari global, Bursa ekuitas Wall Street berakhir di zona merah, Rabu, dengan The Fed mempertahankan suku bunga sesuai ekspektasi, namun cenderung hawkish untuk kebijakan selanjutnya.
Dari global, Bursa ekuitas Wall Street berakhir di zona merah, Rabu, dengan The Fed mempertahankan suku bunga sesuai ekspektasi, namun cenderung hawkish untuk kebijakan selanjutnya.
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TVTranscript
00:00Thank you for joining us and in this segment, we will review the trading path throughout today's
00:10long weekend holiday, where the Gasem Kabungan sector is once again experiencing a fairly
00:16deep correction.
00:17And we remind you again, you can still participate on WhatsApp Interactive on 08.12.8788.723
00:24as shown on the television screen and later.
00:27And right now, you are connected via Zoom with Mr. Ahmad Yakiye, head of online trading
00:31at BGA Securities.
00:32We will go straight to him, Mr. Yaki, good afternoon, how are you, sir?
00:37Good afternoon, Mr. Dave, I'm fine.
00:39Thank you very much, Mr. Yaki, for taking the time to be on the IDA channel.
00:43The long weekend holiday, the Gasem Kabungan sector is experiencing a fairly deep correction
00:49today, more than 1%.
00:51It looks like it's following Wall Street.
00:53The Fed is holding its position.
00:55However, there is a hawkish signal.
00:57Be careful in the future.
00:59According to inflation data, it doesn't seem to be heading significantly to the 2% target.
01:03What's your analysis?
01:05Yes, it's true.
01:07And indeed, if you look at the movement, it's more profit-taking.
01:10Because we have rallied, sorry, it has risen quite a lot before yesterday's holiday.
01:15And indeed, the peak was last night when the Fed held its position at the same level.
01:19And the hawkish view for the future is that they will be more focused on maintaining inflation.
01:28So, indeed, this makes the U.S. market go down a lot last night.
01:31And before that, we also know that Nasdaq also went down a lot.
01:34Because indeed, the artificial intelligence released from China is much better than what is already in the U.S.
01:41And at a cheaper price, this also creates pressure for the technology sector.
01:45Actually, it's more of a reflection from the U.S. market.
01:51So, it shouldn't be too much.
01:53Although now it's down by 1.25%.
01:55But if we look at the big mover, it's more from the big banks.
01:59From the BCA, BRI, and Mandiri.
02:03Okay, what is the direction of the State-Owned Enterprises, Mr. Ayaki?
02:06These stocks are quite short, sir.
02:09It's just a matter of trading tomorrow on Friday.
02:12Other than that, the market players are also waiting for the release of the PCE inflation data.
02:17If I'm not mistaken, the schedule is on Friday night, sir.
02:20Will this strengthen the hawkish divide?
02:23Or maybe there is a potential decrease in inflation data so that the hawkish divide is slightly reduced.
02:29Then, investors also hope that this will also provide fresh air for future trade.
02:37If we look at the policy of the State-Owned Enterprises, it should be more hawkish.
02:41But from the locals themselves, we still know that at the end of this month,
02:46starting from last week, there has been a release of 8 full-year funds in 2024
02:50for several emitters in the BCA and BRI.
02:53And next week, there will be Mandiri and BRI for the big banks.
02:57And some emitters have started to release 8 funds.
02:59This can be a catalyst in the country,
03:01even though the pressure from the outside is quite big.
03:04Because if we look at the portfolio itself, it's more than 3 trillion for R2D2.
03:08Yesterday, in mid-April, there were around 800 views.
03:11So, the pressure from the outside is still quite big.
03:13But the State-Owned Enterprises, from the release of the financial report,
03:17is the catalyst to boost the ISG again.
03:21And if we look at the progress of the ISG today,
03:24it should still be able to survive in the 72.1% to 70.5% area to back on support the ISG again.
03:32Okay, today, up to this point in 2076, it was 1.25% weak.
03:37Mr. Yaky, you also mentioned about the profit-taking action
03:42when the share price has increased significantly in recent times.
03:46And the target is the BICAP stock.
03:49I want to go to the sectoral side first, sir.
03:52Before we go to the BICAP bank,
03:54the stock market today seems to be under quite a lot of pressure.
03:57Mr. Yaky, not only is it safe,
03:59the BRMS Antam is also experiencing a weakness of more than 5%.
04:04How do you see this position, especially from a technical point of view?
04:07Let's go to security first, Mr. Yaky.
04:10If you look at the security action itself,
04:12it's actually quite cheap,
04:14and security has started to break in support of the BRMS.
04:18So there is a potential for security,
04:20tomorrow there is a potential for further increase
04:22to test the nearest area in the 77.25% to 74.50% area.
04:29So be careful,
04:30because tomorrow there is still a potential for correction
04:32if you look at today's action.
04:34The volume is still relatively the same,
04:36but there are some indicators that have oversold.
04:39Maybe this is what's interesting,
04:40but looking at today's action,
04:42there is still a potential to test the nearest area in the 77.25% to 74.50% area.
04:47So there is still a potential for security to continue tomorrow.
04:51What is the recommendation, sir?
04:54It's better to rebond or buy on break above 79.50%.
05:02If it's safe, tomorrow we can rebond above 79.50% to 8.000%.
05:05But if it's safe, we can't rebond above 8.000%.
05:09In my opinion, it's more likely to be corrected again,
05:11to increase support in the 77.25% to 74.50% area.
05:16In the last six months, Mr. Yaky,
05:18security has touched the level of 12,200, sir.
05:22However, in the last few months, including the beginning of 2025,
05:26security tends to weaken.
05:29In terms of patterns, what is it like to have a deep correction for security?
05:34Yes, the trend is still continuing.
05:36If we look at the movement since the end of May 2024,
05:39and it is likely that this will continue.
05:42Because if you look at the spot rate,
05:44there is still a potential for minor correction.
05:46If tomorrow the break is below 77.25%,
05:50the trend is still continuing.
05:52In the 77.25% to 74.50%, in my opinion,
05:55if it's safe, it's better to be in a position or stop-loss.
05:59Because there is a position for continuous correction
06:01up to the level of 5,600 to 6,000.
06:05Okay, still from Barang Baku, sir.
06:07Let's try Antam.
06:08Today it is also quite deep, at 6.38%, at 13.95%.
06:14Analysis and recommendations for Antam.
06:17Antam tomorrow can be observed in the 13.85% area.
06:20In the 13.80-13.85% area, if Antam can survive,
06:23the potential for rebound should be good with the initial performance above 14.20%.
06:28So if Antam can rebound tomorrow in the 13.80% area
06:31and rebound above 14.20%,
06:33Antam's potential can return to the level of 14.50% to 14.90%.
06:38Because Antam still has a gap above, in the 15.70% to 15.85%.
06:43What are the recommendations for Antam?
06:47It can be speculated by if it survives above 13.80%, 13.85%,
06:52or by on-break above 14.20%.
06:55Okay, today's conclusion for Antam at 13.95%,
07:00weak at 6.38%, observe 13.85% or by on-break at 1,420 shares.
07:07And again, the investment decision is still in the hands of the shareholders of ITA Channel.
07:11That's from the stock side, from the sector side, I mean.
07:14Meanwhile, from the stock side,
07:16today, BBCA seems to be the biggest burden, sir.
07:19From the picketing, and if I'm not mistaken,
07:22today's intraday has also touched the lowest intraday level,
07:25at least not in the last 6 months.
07:28Yes, if you look at the statistics,
07:30actually, BCA is already quite deep,
07:32from the highest level in the 2,900 area to the lowest,
07:38back to the current level of 975.
07:41But it's still interesting to monitor BCA or support BCA
07:44as long as it stays above 8,950 to 9,100.
07:47Because the potential for the credit bond is still quite good for BCA,
07:50and if we look at it from the trend side,
07:53it's already settled with the area of 9,175,
07:56but the area for the stock holding base can still be,
07:59if the BCA is still strong,
08:02above the area of 8,900 to 9,100 for the next day.
08:07Okay, where will it go, sir?
08:09When the list is released, it's still above 10% of its operating position,
08:14then the plan will also announce the BCA dividend.
08:19Where will this sentiment affect later?
08:21For the price of the stock, is there any potential to experience
08:24significant strength again, sir, in the short and medium term?
08:28If you look at the selling pressure from ASIC,
08:30there is actually a potential for the correction to continue.
08:33Because if we look at the last five trading days,
08:36the ASIC net sales are already more than 2.3 trillion,
08:40in the regular itself.
08:41So there is indeed a potential for the correction to continue,
08:43but it shouldn't be too much,
08:45because if we look at it historically,
08:47the BCA is usually to exit more than 2.3 trillion,
08:52because usually the last BCA correction in March 2024
08:56is not too big, this is too massive.
08:59So there is still enough pressure,
09:02but it should be more or less limited,
09:05more than 2.3 trillion,
09:06so there is a potential for the correction to continue,
09:08as long as it stays above 8,900 to 9,000.
09:12Will the sentiment of the dividend affect later, sir?
09:15It can be a positive catalyst,
09:17or it can be a positive sentiment,
09:19but maybe it won't be too strong,
09:21because there are many investors or traders
09:24who are also a little worried about the dividend prep,
09:26so maybe this can be a dilemma.
09:28But if you look at the current trading pressure,
09:30it should be quite cheap for us to buy BCA,
09:33especially in the long term.
09:34Okay, let's move on to the BBRI, sir.
09:36Today it also became a heavyweight,
09:38weakening by 1.67%.
09:40The BBRI will also release their full-year performance
09:44in 2024 next week.
09:46Related to expectations,
09:48what are the investors' expectations
09:50for the BBRI performance
09:51after the BBNI and BBCA have been released?
09:54Mr. Yaging.
09:55Yes, in terms of movement,
09:57it shouldn't be too optimistic for the BBRI itself.
09:59The growth is still for the top line itself,
10:02and the net income is still in the range below 8%,
10:06maybe around 5%.
10:08So it's still softer than the previous years.
10:11But in terms of value,
10:14the BBRI is still higher than BCA and Mandiri.
10:18This still needs to be observed by investors,
10:20so they want to see the growth
10:21or want to see the final result.
10:23But in this condition,
10:26it's a bit difficult to see the BBRI performance
10:29for the future,
10:30because the BBNI and BBCA are getting more and more popular.
10:33Yesterday, there was also news
10:35about the cancellation of the traffic jam.
10:38For the UEM bank,
10:39there was also another pressure for the big bank.
10:42Because what people are worried about
10:44is how the cancellation will be.
10:46Although structurally,
10:49the cancellation should not interfere with the performance of the bank.
10:52Because from the beginning,
10:53there has been a delay in the cancellation.
10:57Support and resistance for the BBRI
10:59in the next direction,
11:00especially after the release of the work
11:02and after the release of the work.
11:05This should be observed tomorrow.
11:06The BBRI is at 4,100.
11:07If it reaches 4,100,
11:09there is a potential for the BBRI
11:10to return to the level of 3,990 to 4,000.
11:12But if the BBRI can survive at the level of 4,100,
11:15the potential for BBRI reversal is quite good
11:17to return to the nearest level at 4,190 to 4,220
11:20and above that again at 4,260 to 4,350.
11:24So you have to pay attention to the level of 4,100.
11:28Whether to go down to 3,990
11:30or go back to 4,190 to 4,220.
11:33Okay, the cancellation today is at 4,120.
11:35The intraday was lowered to 4,090.
11:38And again, the decision to invest
11:40is still in the hands of the IDA channel.
11:42Mr. Ayaki, we will hold for a while.
11:44We will try to see what is recommended.
11:47And at the same time,
11:48the update on the closure of trading in the second session
11:50and the shareholder,
11:51we will be back soon.
11:52See you again.