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00:00:00Well, we go back to the NBA. The association has reached the all-star break.
00:00:05Maybe you are starting to pay attention to the NBA or basketball in general a lot more now that football is done.
00:00:12Maybe you are thinking, all right, let me get caught up. What, are we at the halfway point?
00:00:16It's the all-star break? Nope.
00:00:18Most teams around the NBA have played at least 54, 55, even 56 games of an 82-game regular season.
00:00:26When we return to action next Wednesday and Thursday after the all-star break,
00:00:31it's the stretch run to solidify your playoff spot to try to get into the postseason picture in either conference.
00:00:38So let's get you caught up on where the NBA stands at the break in looking at the futures markets and taking a reset.
00:00:46Joe, we're going to do some market movement here.
00:00:48Odds on the left, the NBA championship odds on opening night.
00:00:53That was way back in late October.
00:00:55Odds on the right, where the numbers are right now at all-star break.
00:01:01The Celtics, the Thunder, and the Knicks still all in contention.
00:01:07Joe, before the year, the story was Boston a short favorite to win their second consecutive Larry O'Brien trophy.
00:01:13The story here now, Boston, despite not having the best record in the Eastern Conference, that's the Cavs,
00:01:19still remain the very short favorites to win the NBA title.
00:01:22But Oklahoma City, as you can see, has made that gap a lot, lot closer.
00:01:29Some of the biggest movement you'll see, the 76ers, who had the third-best place to win the Eastern Conference,
00:01:35have moved back 10X to a 100-to-1 place to win the NBA championship, Philly in a terrible, terrible spot.
00:01:44The Timberwolves have seen their price 5X, 10-to-1, now 50-to-1.
00:01:50The Nuggets still in contention, third-best record currently in the Western Conference.
00:01:55And the Mavs, of course, who, led by Luka Doncic, made the NBA finals in a matchup against the Celtics.
00:02:02A very different picture for the franchise now, in the future, maybe forever.
00:02:07And certainly from the odds perspective, 11-to-1 becomes 48-to-1.
00:02:12Joe, when you see all of that market movement, which team, which number, which bit of movement catches your attention first?
00:02:19Well, I mean, listen, the fact that Denver got worse than they were on October 22nd is hilarious.
00:02:27At 14-to-1 now here, because this team will always have a chance to compete for a championship with the Joker.
00:02:36And Mike Ballone, quite honestly, pulling the strings there.
00:02:40He knows the kind of team he has.
00:02:41Russell Westbrook has proven to have a little bit left in the tank coming off the bench there, Ben.
00:02:47And call me crazy, the Nuggets have one of the best offenses in the league that can dominate you at any time.
00:02:54So I just think you always have a chance with the Joker.
00:02:58And there is no reason why at 14-to-1 you probably shouldn't consider grabbing a piece of them.
00:03:05Because until OKC can get past that, you know, it's tough to win in the playoffs, Ben.
00:03:11The Nuggets have done it time and time again.
00:03:13And that's a really good point, Joe.
00:03:16And we'll talk about that further on the other side of the break.
00:03:19You see the NBA championship odds on your screen.
00:03:22It was a seismic, monumental, transformative NBA trade deadline week.
00:03:28Probably the most historic we had seen in the history of the NBA.
00:03:33But the team at the top of the odds boards are all really homegrown, built.
00:03:38Didn't make those big blockbuster deals at deadline week, as you will see there.
00:03:45I'll talk about the two stories that catch my attention from a movement perspective on the other side of the break.
00:03:51To me, Joe, it is still the tier of two in the tightly contested race at the top between the Celtics and the Thunder.
00:03:58How realistic do the Cavaliers have a chance of making an NBA championship run?
00:04:03And then the Philadelphia 76ers, who are 20 and 34, somehow not out of the net.
00:04:11The NBA at the All-Star break.
00:04:14We'll give you some pics and previews and try to explain to the best of our ability all the changing formats of All-Star Weekend out in San Francisco.
00:04:22But from a handicapping perspective and looking at the season at large, it's a time to reset.
00:04:28Look at where the markets are in comparison to the standings, playoff positioning, postseason seeds at stake.
00:04:35And remind all of you, this is not the halfway point like it is at times in certain other leagues.
00:04:42Really, the All-Star break never really falls exactly at the middle.
00:04:45But especially in the NBA, Joe, with every team playing 54, 55, 56 games by the time we have now reached the break,
00:04:53we're really talking a home stretch once we get back to regular season action starting next week.
00:04:59I mentioned right before the break that I would talk about the market movement that has caught my attention the most.
00:05:04Story number one to me is still the same story that I had in the offseason before this year began.
00:05:10The Celtics being an incredibly short favorite to win yet another NBA championship, and that still being the case.
00:05:18But now Oklahoma City matching the best record in the NBA and having the best one out west at 44 and 10, closing that gap.
00:05:26Plus 195 for Boston now, plus 230, the Thunder only 35 cents behind.
00:05:33The second story to me is the dramatic odds movement in a regressive way against the Philadelphia 76ers.
00:05:4110-1 before the year because you had Tyrese Maxey, Joel Embiid, the acquisition of Paul George.
00:05:47Maybe they could provide that test to the Celtics in the Eastern Conference.
00:05:51Now at 100-1, Joe, Philadelphia is 20-34.
00:05:58They are 14 games below 500.
00:06:01Any given night, you have no idea who is going to play for Philadelphia.
00:06:06Embiid has missed so many more games than he has actually played this year.
00:06:10Tyrese Maxey is trying his darndest.
00:06:13Earlier in the year, it was the rookie out of Duke, Jared McCain, doing everything he could.
00:06:18He's out for the remainder of this season.
00:06:20Paul George has better podcast numbers than he does actual scoring numbers as a member of the Philadelphia 76ers.
00:06:28And yet, Joe, although it seems the 76ers have zero chance of even getting to the postseason because they're 14 games under 500,
00:06:38they're only a game and a half out of the 10 seed in the Eastern Conference,
00:06:43which would mean they would at least have a play-in tournament opportunity
00:06:48if they can at least win a couple of games down the stretch.
00:06:53Yeah, no. I can see them.
00:06:56And thank you for participating here.
00:06:59There is some good news in Philadelphia, though.
00:07:02You're watching Tyrese Maxey grow up before your eyes into what is a franchise player.
00:07:08You have young guys like Justin Edwards, Jared McCain, also very, very good players.
00:07:14The problem is Paul George is a total bust, may have been one of the worst contracts given in the league.
00:07:21Bede can't stay healthy. His attitude stinks.
00:07:24But the good news is with those young players, there is enough talent on this roster where I don't think the rebuild would take that long.
00:07:33But keep in mind, of all teams, the Oklahoma City Thunder right now, because of the trade, own Philadelphia's first-round pick,
00:07:44is projected to be a top-five or six pick.
00:07:46Oklahoma City is going to get another top-five pick in the draft if things stay the same.
00:07:52Just absolutely horrific season for the Philadelphia Sixers.
00:07:56Trust the process. Sam Presti is, and we are seeing direct results.
00:08:03Because Oklahoma City now, despite a loss last night in Minneapolis to end out the All-Star break,
00:08:08still the best record in a large way in the Western Conference at 44-10, tying the Cavaliers for the best record overall in the NBA here at the break.
00:08:19So let's take a look at the Western Conference standings in the playoff picture at this moment.
00:08:25The Thunder have an eight-game advantage for the top spot in that number-one overall seed.
00:08:31The Grizzlies have a chance, with John Moran playing good basketball and focusing only on basketball,
00:08:38to be the second seed in the Western Conference playoff picture for the third time in the last four years.
00:08:43The Nuggets, the Rockets, the Lakers, and the Clippers will talk about those teams in Los Angeles in just a moment.
00:08:50The two teams that met in last year's Western Conference Finals, the T-Wolves and the Mavericks, above .500.
00:08:57The Kings and the Warriors round out the final two spots in the play-in tournament.
00:09:03And the Dubs and the Kings, as you see there, with the same exact record through 55 games,
00:09:08game-and-a-half advantage for both the teams from Northern California over the Phoenix Suns in terms of those play-in tournament positions.
00:09:17Joe, I think the theme, at least in my estimation, in the Western Conference, the Thunder are a great story.
00:09:23There is zero doubt with what we are witnessing night in, night out in the NBA.
00:09:27They are the best team, if not one of the best teams right now, playing.
00:09:32The Grizzlies are great. The Rockets have been fun. We'll talk about L.A. in just a second.
00:09:37But really, as you look up and down the Western Conference standings,
00:09:41and the teams that would currently already be in the postseason, one through six,
00:09:45the only real teams that have done anything are the Denver Nuggets,
00:09:50and I guess if you want to give the Lakers credit for their bubble championship.
00:09:53But really, the Nuggets, Joe, are the team that is not only putting out the performances on the court
00:09:59with the same cast and crew that has won a Western Conference crown and an NBA championship at this moment.
00:10:06And no respect in the market at 14-1 to win it all right now, Ben.
00:10:11I would imagine the number is probably pretty juicy to win the West as well.
00:10:16But I have them as the second-ranked team, as you can see there, right, plus 550 here.
00:10:21Memphis, to me, is another amazing story nobody's talking about,
00:10:26because they are now in a position here, Ben, to actually break their franchise record of 56 wins in a season,
00:10:34and they're doing it starting two rookies.
00:10:37And don't forget, they were 27-55 last year, and John Marantz missed 21 games this year.
00:10:45So, I mean, they're top seven in both offense and defense,
00:10:49and nobody is giving them credit because we're all waiting for John Marantz to fall off the rails here.
00:10:55Well, they've been doing it without John Marantz, and they've been doing it with two rookies, Ben.
00:10:59It's pretty impressive.
00:11:00And when John Marantz has not been there, it's not suspensions, of course.
00:11:04Maybe his father, T. Marantz, should stop trying to fight people in the stands or referees.
00:11:09But outside of that, John's been consistent with what he has done.
00:11:12And Taylor Jenkins reminding everybody, you might not know me or know what I look like,
00:11:16but I'm a pretty darn good NBA coach.
00:11:19We'll look at the Western Conference odds and then move to the Eastern Conference.
00:11:23On the other side of the break, here on the Early Line on Sports Grid, it's the NBA at the All-Star Break.
00:11:29The NBA at the All-Star Break.
00:11:32A time to reset.
00:11:33Look at where the standings are, those playoff positions.
00:11:37When we return from the All-Star Break, it's the home stretch of this regular season.
00:11:42Joe, in the Western Conference still.
00:11:44Eastern Conference in just a moment.
00:11:47Here are the conference odds out west.
00:11:49Oklahoma City, eight-game advantage for that top spot.
00:11:52Near an even money favorite at plus 105.
00:11:55Earlier in the week, it was exactly even money, plus 100.
00:11:59The Nuggets, a very far gap back.
00:12:02And then, of course, Joe, there's the Los Angeles Lakers.
00:12:05It's always notable.
00:12:06It's LA.
00:12:07It's the Purple and Gold.
00:12:08It's LeBron James.
00:12:10But now, of course, with the addition of Luka Doncic.
00:12:13And it's not just adding Luka Doncic and being like,
00:12:16Oh, can the Lakers make a run into the play-in tournament?
00:12:19The Lakers right now are only a half game behind the Rockets for the fourth spot in the Western Conference.
00:12:25If you're in the top four, you are hosting an opening round playoff series.
00:12:30Joe, can the Lakers make a run?
00:12:32Is the ceiling as high as it needs to be for LA this season to actually win the West?
00:12:41Well, listen, anything is possible given, you know, the two guys that they have on that team now.
00:12:46But you got to give them credit, too, as well.
00:12:49Because the first 30, 35 games of the season, Ben, were a little bit rocky to say the least.
00:12:56But they've won 12 of 15 entering this break.
00:13:00And, of course, pulled off one of the most amazing trades in NBA history, getting Luka.
00:13:06So, listen, in a seven-game playoff series,
00:13:10I don't know that I'd be betting them over Boston or OKC or even Cleveland as far as I'm concerned there.
00:13:17But they are certainly more than capable of putting it together and making a run at the Western Conference for sure.
00:13:24Joe, just about a month ago, January 13th, the Lakers were 20-17.
00:13:29Fine, above .500, nothing to write home about.
00:13:32They enter the All-Star break having won 12 of their last 15 games and now have Luka Doncic.
00:13:40Let's go to the Eastern Conference playoff picture.
00:13:42Because, Joe, for me, the story out East is the same it has been.
00:13:46But it's a little bit different.
00:13:48The Celtics were far and away the best team in the NBA, but certainly out East all season long a year ago.
00:13:55And that has been the expectation for Boston this year.
00:13:58And they have largely lived up to it from the oddsmaker's perspective.
00:14:02Not quite as historic as a season ago, but as our expectations get higher, so do do our levels of success for the season.
00:14:11Still 39-16, third-best record in the NBA, second-best in the Eastern Conference,
00:14:18but five and a half games back of the Cleveland Cavaliers, who have, of course, been one of the stories out East.
00:14:24The Knicks, 36-18, and really then you kind of find your drop-offs around the Eastern Conference standings,
00:14:31and you can see the records of the teams that would even be in consideration for the play-in tournament at this moment,
00:14:38all at least two games sub .500 or worse.
00:14:42Joe, the story to me in the Eastern Conference is simply this.
00:14:46The Boston Celtics are already a minus-money favorite to win the Eastern Conference crown.
00:14:52Largely, they have been for the last month and a half or so.
00:14:56But can the Cavaliers or the New York Knicks actually challenge the Celtics
00:15:02and knock them off their perch in the Eastern Conference?
00:15:06But it's so funny, Ben, because they're the champs, and they're the favorites,
00:15:11and with good reason because I believe they're one of the only teams in the top five in both offense and defense this season.
00:15:19I think the biggest problem with the Celtics is not that they got worse.
00:15:23It's that everybody else around them got better, including those Cleveland Cavaliers,
00:15:28who are also sitting, well, pretty good here as they're the number one offense.
00:15:34They're number one in threes. They're number eight in defense.
00:15:37This team is doing it all, but like the conversation we had with OKC, what have they done in the postseason, Ben,
00:15:45to lead us to believe that they can get this done over a Boston Celtics?
00:15:49And that's the question, Joe.
00:15:51So when you look, I mean, you can make some arguments, I guess,
00:15:54if the Bucs are at full strength with Giannis and Dame, but even with them both out there at times,
00:15:59it has not been the prettiest picture.
00:16:01And then the Doc Rivers playoff conversations come up, all of that good stuff.
00:16:05I think the question is still, Joe, which team provides Boston its biggest test?
00:16:11Would you say that is the Cavs or are the Knicks a better opponent for the Boston Celtics?
00:16:17Well, the problem with the Knicks is they haven't beaten anybody of that caliber here.
00:16:23They've lost twice by a combined 50 points against Boston in two games.
00:16:28They've also lost to Cleveland.
00:16:30They haven't beaten anybody in the top eight, Ben.
00:16:34So how can we trust the Knicks at all unless they're playing 500 teams?
00:16:39You would say the Knicks are in a better spot than they were last year in the postseason
00:16:43with Carl Anthony Towns playing as well as he is.
00:16:46But is it enough? That's the question.
00:16:48Ryan Fonseca will help with some answers up next.
00:16:51The NBA at the All-Star break at the very start of All-Star weekend tonight in San Francisco
00:16:58to make sense of everything.
00:16:59Where the NBA stands here at the break, basically every team playing 54, 55, 56 plus games.
00:17:07Throughout this 82-game regular season.
00:17:10What the stretch run is going to hold as we eye the postseason.
00:17:13And of course, for some All-Star weekend festivities and winners,
00:17:17we are very pleased right now to welcome on Brian Fonseca.
00:17:21He will be here with us for the next few segments talking about everything around the association.
00:17:26Fonseca, once again, thanks so much for being back on the early line.
00:17:30Glad to have you here.
00:17:32Glad to be back. How are we doing?
00:17:35Doing well. Doing well, my man.
00:17:37Glad to have you here.
00:17:38And let's get to everything in the NBA.
00:17:41Fonseca, there might be some that are trying to get caught up on action in the association
00:17:46at the end of football season, seeing it's All-Star break.
00:17:49Saying, all right, what are we like halfway through the season?
00:17:51No, as I just shared, we're pretty close to the end.
00:17:56So every game we see after the All-Star break,
00:17:58if you are in the running, direct implications on the NBA postseason.
00:18:03And, of course, the Chase Frey, Larry O'Brien trophy.
00:18:07Fonseca on the screen here in just a second.
00:18:10There will be the 10 best odds to win the NBA title this year.
00:18:14The Celtics, the reigning champs, have been booked as the short favorites all year long.
00:18:19That's where they remain entering All-Star weekend.
00:18:23The Thunder, though, have closed that gap back by only 35 cents.
00:18:27The Thunder and the Cavaliers tied for the best record at this current point in the NBA season, 44-10.
00:18:34As you look at those 10 best places to win a championship this season,
00:18:39what's one of the main stories that is standing out to you?
00:18:43One of the main things, as I'm looking at the screen, is just how flawed all these teams are.
00:18:49Which makes it interesting to sort of analyze, bet on, predict.
00:18:54Because all of these teams have at least one major flaw, which that's an indication of parity, right?
00:19:02Like, the NBA is not where it was in 2017, 2018, where you had two dominant teams
00:19:10and you kind of knew what we were going to get in the finals.
00:19:12Like, you knew it was going to be Cavs, Warriors at the end of the year.
00:19:14It's a different time and league now because you have all these teams with a bunch of different flaws.
00:19:20The Lakers just got Luka Doncic. They don't have a center.
00:19:22There's six and I could actually give you a case for why they can make a run to at least the Western Conference Finals.
00:19:28And the odds makers here, I mean, they have the third best odds to get to the NBA Finals out of the Western Conference.
00:19:37So, I mean, and them playing against Denver, while I would favor Denver then for obvious reasons
00:19:42because Nikola Jokic just destroys the Lakers.
00:19:45Luka Doncic is Luka Doncic. I mean, like, there are a lot of different things here that stand out to me.
00:19:51And another thing is probably, I would probably want to not bet on more teams than I actually bet on
00:19:57because of the fears of what I'm expressing.
00:20:00Like, hey, this team is weak here in the case of the Mavericks.
00:20:04I really liked them before the trade. Now I don't as much.
00:20:06They're banged up on top of that.
00:20:08Yesterday, they sat their six best players.
00:20:10They still won, but they sat their six best players yesterday, right before all-star break.
00:20:15As collectively in the NBA, a lot of people just decided to sit a bunch of their best guys.
00:20:20But it's just the flaws of the team, but I think the flaws of these teams,
00:20:24but I think that makes this all the more interesting, in my opinion.
00:20:29And yet the Celtics are pretty much the same team that just won a championship in dominant fashion a year ago.
00:20:36Can we make the argument, as flawed as a lot of these teams are,
00:20:39they all got better because the Celtics didn't have the thunder of the Cavs to worry about a year ago.
00:20:46I mean, there was never any doubt they were such huge favorites.
00:20:49Are these teams better and more capable of competing against the Boston Celtics?
00:20:56I think as a whole, yes. I think the Knicks, while they changed their identity,
00:21:00and I like their identity that they had last year, they have a higher offensive ceiling this year.
00:21:04My concern is, can their defense become a top-10 defense, which has not been the case all year.
00:21:09And honestly, they struggle more than people think against some of these really good teams.
00:21:15They have three games coming up against Cleveland that I have circled,
00:21:18two of which are in April, right before the playoffs.
00:21:21And the other one is one week from today.
00:21:24So immediately after All-Star break, we're going to see Knicks-Cavs,
00:21:27and that's going to be very, very important.
00:21:29I think for how we look at the Knicks down the stretch, especially considering a trade deadline,
00:21:34they weren't very aggressive and they ended up getting just a lot right.
00:21:39So they'll probably be active in the buyout market, but their team is kind of their team.
00:21:44And even on the Western Conference, if you look at Oklahoma City, for example,
00:21:48I think there are challengers to Oklahoma City.
00:21:50I don't think Oklahoma City is just going to tear through the Western Conference necessarily.
00:21:54They should be the favorite.
00:21:56And honestly, they probably should be the favorite to win the entire thing, I would have said,
00:22:00if Boston hadn't done what they did last year.
00:22:03But I think with Boston, there are challengers in the Eastern Conference this year.
00:22:09The problem is you would have thought Philly would be one of them, and it's not going to happen.
00:22:16It's just not going to happen.
00:22:18And then a team like Miami, who's always a pain for them, they're just not there,
00:22:23and Jimmy Butler is no longer there.
00:22:24So you're just kind of crossing off teams.
00:22:26And the Celtic challengers, it's really two and a half, because we still hold out.
00:22:33Hey, maybe Milwaukee can go on a winning streak at the end.
00:22:38I think Orlando traditionally matches up pretty well with them from a defensive standpoint,
00:22:42but they just can't score.
00:22:44And I don't know, but I think the Cavs are much better than last year,
00:22:48and the Knicks are, at least they have a higher ceiling than last year.
00:22:52I would agree with that statement.
00:22:54And that's kind of the question out east, who can challenge the Boston Celtics?
00:22:58We expect the Cs to be there at least in the Eastern Conference finals at the end.
00:23:03Who provides that best test?
00:23:05Let's go for the teams, Fonseca, to the individual award race right now
00:23:09that is the MVP in the NBA.
00:23:13You look at some of the numbers, and you might think,
00:23:16this guy, Nikola Jokic, is continuing to do it.
00:23:19Averaging a triple-double, is top four in every one of those categories.
00:23:24Points scored, rebounds per game, assists per game around the NBA,
00:23:30but Shea Gildress-Alexander, the NBA's leading scorer,
00:23:33on the NBA's best team, or at least co-best team at this moment.
00:23:38A little bit of movement, though, as we enter All-Star Weekend.
00:23:42SGA was minus 650 earlier this week to win the MVP award.
00:23:46Now it's just minus 470.
00:23:48Nikola Jokic looking to become the sixth player in NBA history
00:23:51to win at least four MVP awards.
00:23:55Is this race over?
00:23:57Do you think SGA has wrapped it up?
00:24:00Or is Nikola Jokic truly in the running?
00:24:04I don't think it's over.
00:24:05I think it's likely going to be between one of these two guys, though.
00:24:09I think last year we were playing with the idea of, okay, there's Jokic,
00:24:14there's Embiid before he got hurt towards meniscus,
00:24:17there was Luka Doncic.
00:24:20Tatum didn't really have a case for being number one,
00:24:22but his name was being thrown around there,
00:24:24and then it's like, is Jalen Brunson going to be on a ballot?
00:24:26I think this year it's just kind of going to be between these two.
00:24:29And right now I do think Shea would get it because of a couple different factors.
00:24:35One, his team is really good, and they played through injury
00:24:39without Chet Holmgren for a bunch of the year,
00:24:41who just came back recently.
00:24:42Isaiah Hardenstein missed a lot of time.
00:24:45You also have the element of, hey, Oklahoma City just looks overwhelming,
00:24:49at least in the Western Conference from a regular season standpoint.
00:24:52In the playoffs, you know, we'll see if this is a regular season award.
00:24:55And Shea Gozas-Alexander kind of feels like it's his time
00:24:58where he's really ascending to that MVP level,
00:25:01whereas Nikola Jokic already has multiple MVPs.
00:25:05I wonder if the voters are going to just be like,
00:25:08hey, you know, we'll give it to Shea this year,
00:25:11you know, on some human element type of vote.
00:25:15I think Nikola Jokic obviously, like, he has a production he's deserving,
00:25:20and Denver would absolutely fall off a cliff
00:25:23if he doesn't do what he has to on a night-to-night basis.
00:25:28But Shea Gozas-Alexander is absolutely deserving of it.
00:25:31I think right now he would probably almost certainly win it.
00:25:35And if this continues and he's healthy down the stretch in Oklahoma City,
00:25:40you know, gets to 60-plus wins, as we project to be the case,
00:25:43then, yeah, I think he's going to get this award.
00:25:46The narrative, a part of this conversation,
00:25:48not just voter fatigue and saying, hey, let's give it to somebody new.
00:25:51Nikola Jokic just won three of the last four,
00:25:54but also the narrative of Shea Gozas-Alexander
00:25:56leading OKC to new heights,
00:25:58the number one seed in the Western Conference,
00:26:00and what that could mean overall.
00:26:02So that's the All-Star Break NBA component.
00:26:06Now let's get to All-Star Weekend.
00:26:09Brian Fonseca up next.
00:26:11All-Star Weekend by the Bay in San Francisco
00:26:14at the home of the Golden State Warriors
00:26:16inside the Chase Center starts on this Friday
00:26:19with the Rising Stars competition,
00:26:21All-Star Saturday night skills competition,
00:26:24three-point contest, dunk contest,
00:26:27somebody wake up, Mack McClung,
00:26:29and then, of course, All-Star Sunday night in a new format.
00:26:33Brian Fonseca here for a second consecutive segment.
00:26:36As clearly and as simply as I can,
00:26:39let me just try to explain what the new structure
00:26:42of the All-Star game looks like.
00:26:45We have four teams all incorporating
00:26:49TNT Turner Sports NBA talent,
00:26:52Charles Barkley's Global Stars,
00:26:54Kenny Smith's Young Stars,
00:26:57Shaquille O'Neal's OGs,
00:26:59and Candice Parker's Rising Stars.
00:27:02Candice will take over the champion
00:27:04of the Rising Stars competition
00:27:06that is on this Friday to be featured
00:27:09in the All-Star festivities on Sunday night.
00:27:12We have semifinal matchups that we can break down here.
00:27:15The Global Stars of Chuck versus the Young Stars of Kenny.
00:27:19Shaq's OGs versus Candice's Rising Stars.
00:27:23These two semifinal games will play against each other.
00:27:27First to 40, the champions of those two
00:27:30will play in the championship game.
00:27:32Also first to 40 to decide our All-Star champion.
00:27:38I hope that made sense.
00:27:40We'll continue to discuss.
00:27:41Fonseca, I ask you what I hope is an even simpler question to start.
00:27:46Do you like the new format of the 2025 All-Star weekend?
00:27:50No, I think this is going to suck.
00:27:53I think we're at a point where we're just confusing the fans.
00:27:59And I don't like when leagues are trying to bring in casual observers
00:28:03because let's be honest, the All-Star game is not geared
00:28:07toward diehard consumers of your product, which is fine.
00:28:11It's geared toward getting casuals to be more than casual.
00:28:15It's geared towards people just kind of tuning in
00:28:17and wanting to have a good time.
00:28:19What people don't like is being confused,
00:28:21as we've seen with a lot of different things.
00:28:24And if you're bringing in a new audience to confuse them,
00:28:29they're going to be pissed off and not want to follow your product.
00:28:32So I think this is just doing too much.
00:28:35And I think this is at the risk of just pissing off a lot of people
00:28:39who are just trying to enjoy themselves this weekend.
00:28:43Doesn't it feel like more thought was given to, like,
00:28:46the color of the uniforms and what the court's going to look like
00:28:49and the difference?
00:28:51Like, all we want to see is All-Stars play basketball.
00:28:54This is not that difficult.
00:28:56But having said that, and you've looked at these teams,
00:29:00is there one group that you think matches up pretty well
00:29:04in order to be able to get this thing done?
00:29:07I mean, if we do want to actually break this down,
00:29:10whatever team Wemby's on, you know, because I think Wemby's going to care.
00:29:16He's actually somebody, like, if I wanted to place a bet for MVP,
00:29:19I would look at Victor Wambanyama because he seems like someone
00:29:23who's going to care.
00:29:25He seems like someone who's not going to want to be buddy-buddy
00:29:27with everybody, and he seems like somebody who has a team where, I mean,
00:29:31we look at this roster.
00:29:33First of all, it's ridiculous that Shea Gildas-Alexander
00:29:37and Nicole Iocic are on the same team or both the MVP frontrunners,
00:29:40as we just talked about.
00:29:42Nicole Iocic doesn't care about this.
00:29:44He's going to be deferential.
00:29:46He'll probably get, like, a couple points and eight assists.
00:29:49If his points over-under is, like, six and a half,
00:29:52I'm probably going to take the under because I'm not sure he's going to get
00:29:54more than three layups.
00:29:56You have Alfred Shangun, who might be similar in this type of format.
00:30:01Like, you have a whole bunch of guys on this team who are going to be like,
00:30:04all right, if you want to score, go ahead.
00:30:06So Victor Wambanyama, from an MVP standpoint on his own team,
00:30:10has to worry about, I think, Carl Anthony Guittel
00:30:12and some Trey Young the most and probably Shea,
00:30:15and Giannis isn't going to play.
00:30:17So, I mean, that's great because, I mean, it's not because he's hurt,
00:30:22but it's great from the standpoint of if you want to bet on Wambanyama,
00:30:25Giannis is somebody who cares in the all-star game.
00:30:27So you take away somebody else who cares, and it's like, all right, cool.
00:30:31I think, yeah, I think Wemby could potentially put on a show.
00:30:34And that's probably the most interesting team to me,
00:30:37just from a top-to-bottom standpoint.
00:30:39This young stars team that Kenny Smith has, I mean, all the respect,
00:30:43but, I mean, Anthony Edwards shot a left-handed three last year
00:30:46in one of the competitions.
00:30:48I'm not trying to see that.
00:30:49Then you have, like, Tyler Hero, Jared Jackson Jr., Jalen Williams,
00:30:52Kate Cunningham.
00:30:55I'd be surprised if they beat Chuck's team.
00:30:58But then again, it's the all-star game, so who knows?
00:31:01Yeah, and who knows, and who knows what the format's like,
00:31:03and who knows if they come out with a hot spurt,
00:31:05and you're just playing first to 40, and you're hoisting threes,
00:31:08and there's a mentality to all of that.
00:31:10I would agree, Fonseca.
00:31:12It's also interesting when you find the categories of how these guys
00:31:17were slotted in.
00:31:18The Global Stars is not just all international players.
00:31:21There's a couple of Americans on the team, as you saw.
00:31:24Donovan Mitchell, Trey Young, Carl Anthony Towns.
00:31:26You've got the OGs, some guys that have been around for a while,
00:31:29Steph, LeBron, KD, as we know.
00:31:33But also, you've got the young stars that include guys like Jalen Brunson,
00:31:37who's been in the NBA now for seven seasons.
00:31:40So who knows exactly how this format is going to work?
00:31:45And Victor Weminyama, that price shortening on his number
00:31:49to win that All-Star Game MVP.
00:31:51It is correlated, right?
00:31:53If Fonseca thinks Wemby is going to care and have a chance to put up big numbers
00:31:58and win the MVP award, then that should be good for Chuck's Global Stars,
00:32:03who have the second-best price to win the All-Star Game at 2-1.
00:32:07Fonseca, I would just say that Team Shaq does remain the favorite
00:32:10because they have Steph, LeBron, and others who have been there for a while.
00:32:15Fonseca, do you believe that you will be betting?
00:32:17All-Star weekend, either All-Star Saturday night
00:32:20and the All-Star festivities on Sunday.
00:32:23Yeah, in the dunk contest and even the three-point contest,
00:32:27but more so in the dunk contest,
00:32:29I like to bet on somebody who's not the favorite because it's a dunk contest.
00:32:33So, I mean, why not take a shot with Stephon Castro?
00:32:37Because Stephon Castro, of all these guys, one, he's plus 750.
00:32:41Two, he has a cheat code.
00:32:43He's teammates with Victor Weminyama.
00:32:46You don't think he's going to try to incorporate Victor Weminyama
00:32:49in some sort of dunk?
00:32:50I'm not saying he's going to jump over him because, you know,
00:32:52maybe his spurs won't allow that.
00:32:54For obvious reasons, you don't want Victor Weminyama
00:32:56to get potentially teabagged on national television in a dunk contest
00:33:00because Stephon Castro can't jump over somebody who's, like, 7'4".
00:33:03But at the same time, like, could he sit in a chair and throw up a lob
00:33:10so Stephon Castro could windmill it over him?
00:33:12Yeah, that could probably happen.
00:33:14Like, if he incorporates Wemby in some way, people are just going to be like,
00:33:17oh, that was cool, he used Wemby, da-da-da-da-da.
00:33:20I don't think he should be plus 750 because he has a cheat code of a teammate
00:33:23that he can use for the dunk contest.
00:33:26We'll talk more about All-Star Saturday in all those betting markets up next.
00:33:31Hand up.
00:33:32Bad hosting on my end.
00:33:34Did not realize Brian Fonseca was leaving us at the end of that second segment.
00:33:38Thought he was going to be here for the entirety of the second half hour
00:33:42or second hour.
00:33:43That's only on me.
00:33:44That's a guy who didn't check the time stamps on the rundown.
00:33:47So, Brian Fonseca, if you're listening out there,
00:33:50and to everybody that didn't listen to Brian Fonseca, drop some knowledge.
00:33:53We appreciate his time and his expertise here on this Friday on The Early Line.
00:33:59Speaking of Friday, Rising Stars competition.
00:34:02But let's get to All-Star Saturday night where Fonseca did give us a pick
00:34:07for, of course, the all-elusive dunk contest.
00:34:11Here are your four contestants tomorrow night in San Francisco.
00:34:15Somebody get Mac McClung back in an NBA arena.
00:34:19He is the favorite to win his third consecutive dunk contest at minus 210.
00:34:24These odds available, by the way, not stateside, but up in the Great White North
00:34:29in Canada, but just to give you a representation of what we are looking at.
00:34:33Chicago's rookie, Modest Bouzelis, who is known as Little Boozy Vert.
00:34:38He's got the second-best price at 5-1.
00:34:41And then a couple of former Connecticut Huskies, Andre Jackson Jr.
00:34:46and the rookie for San Antonio, Steph Castle, both at plus 750.
00:34:51Now, Fonseca made the point, Ranieri, that it's a dunk contest.
00:34:55Who knows exactly what we're going to see, despite the pedigree
00:34:58that Mac McClung has deserved as your back-to-back champion.
00:35:02Might as well take a flyer on a big plus-money price
00:35:06instead of laying more than two bucks of minus money on Mac McClung.
00:35:11Is Fonseca correct?
00:35:14Well, yeah, as long as it wins.
00:35:17Otherwise, you're going to wish you laid the 210.
00:35:20So, I mean, guys, we're talking about a dude who's 6'2".
00:35:246'2", all right?
00:35:26And he's a back-to-back champion, and he's doing something that's only been done
00:35:30or trying to do something that's only been done one other time.
00:35:33He's only had one three-peat champion, I believe, in the three-point range,
00:35:37and that was Nate Robinson back in the day
00:35:39before he was fighting for pay-per-view and getting knocked out by Jake Paul,
00:35:43but that's a whole different story.
00:35:45But, I mean, at 6'2", Ben, he's the favorite for a reason.
00:35:51Any dunk that he does with that frame is going to look a million times crazier
00:35:57than anything the other three guys are going to do,
00:36:00although Bezelos is interesting because, don't forget,
00:36:03he was teammates with a two-time dunk champion
00:36:06who was apparently working with him for the last month or so
00:36:10before he was traded in Zach Levine.
00:36:12So, maybe, just maybe, he's got one or two tricks up his sleeve as well.
00:36:19Is that why Matt McClung, at only 6'2", could join a guy like Nate Robinson,
00:36:25who is the only three-peat NBA dunk contest winner in history, 06-09-2011,
00:36:31because Nate the Great was 5'9".
00:36:34It just looks better.
00:36:36It looks like they are defying odds in gravity at the same time.
00:36:40Now, I hear Fonseca's point.
00:36:42It's a dunk contest.
00:36:44It's arbitrary.
00:36:46It's subjective, all of that stuff.
00:36:48I don't think I would bet against Matt McClung at this moment,
00:36:51who is playing this year, Joe, no longer for the Delaware 96ers or whatever,
00:36:56the 79ers, I don't even know exactly what they're called,
00:36:59but as a part of the Magic organization.
00:37:02He plays mostly for the G League affiliate, the Osceola Magic.
00:37:06He has played in one NBA game this year for Orlando about five minutes.
00:37:11You got to keep him around as long as you can.
00:37:15Three-point contest, as we'll talk about on the other side of the break as well
00:37:19to start out three, Damian Lillard is the favorite at three to one
00:37:25in front of Buddy Heald, Darius Garland, our guy on the early line, Norm Powell,
00:37:30is that Cam Johnson?
00:37:31I think so.
00:37:32Tyler Herro, Jalen Brunson, and Cade Cunningham.
00:37:35Tyler Herro last night, 40-point performance for Miami,
00:37:38albeit in a loss in Dallas, but as Joe astutely pointed out,
00:37:42he was 3 of 14 from deep.
00:37:46I mean, which is probably why he's going to win this event now.
00:37:49I mean, go figure.
00:37:51He did make it, I think he made it to the second round last year,
00:37:56Tyler Herro, too, but fell a little bit short.
00:37:58But this is all going to be about Damian Lillard from the Bay Area.
00:38:02That's where he grew up.
00:38:03It's going to be a very pro-Lillard crowd.
00:38:06And he's, again, going for three in a row.
00:38:08How do you go wrong, I mean, with Lillard at plus three to one?
00:38:12I don't get it.
00:38:13But Dame grew up in Oakland.
00:38:15And Oakland doesn't really like San Francisco.
00:38:18So we'll see if that means anything.
00:38:20Yes, you are correct, though.
00:38:21Dame looking to go back to back to back.
00:38:25He is just the sixth player in NBA three-point shootout contest history
00:38:30to win two in a row, and thus why he is a favorite.
00:38:34He has done so, by the way, on two different teams.
00:38:37Blazers first in 23, Bucs last year in 2024.
00:38:41We'll talk more All-Star Weekend and hear from the people.
00:38:45Are you excited?
00:38:47We'll do that in hour number three next.
00:38:50We welcome you to hour number three, our third and final on this Friday
00:38:54as we send you in to All-Star Weekend in the NBA.
00:38:58It begins on this Friday with the Rising Stars competition
00:39:02out in San Francisco by the Bay.
00:39:06We're learning All-Star history as we speak
00:39:09with some more history at stake on Saturday
00:39:13in a historic new format for the All-Star game or games,
00:39:18I guess you could say, on Sunday.
00:39:21We will try to explain all the new changes to the format,
00:39:25the new structure, all of that for All-Star Weekend
00:39:28throughout this final hour.
00:39:30And we'll give you some picks to set the stage for this weekend as well.
00:39:35But also in this last hour, Joe, a monumental weekend ahead
00:39:39in college hoops.
00:39:41Tomorrow, for the first time, we will hear from the NCAA Selection Committee
00:39:46as it pertains to the men's basketball tournament,
00:39:49giving us an early peek and preview as they see it,
00:39:53the top 16 seeds in the nation right now.
00:39:56We get to learn a little bit of their thinking.
00:39:59That comes out tomorrow afternoon.
00:40:01And then a huge slate on a Saturday, one versus two in Tuscaloosa
00:40:06to intensify the Iron Basket Bowl, if you will,
00:40:11between Alabama and Auburn.
00:40:13So much to discuss live right here in this third hour on The Early Line.
00:40:19Listen, let me just say it too.
00:40:21I mean, now that football's over, there are plenty of other things going on,
00:40:26including, Ben, if I'm not mistaken, down in my neck of the woods,
00:40:29how about the Daytona 500?
00:40:31I believe that's also revving up to get going also.
00:40:35So we got a little something for everybody coming up here
00:40:37over the next couple of weeks.
00:40:39I guess so.
00:40:41Hey, Daytona 500, that's where they drink milk?
00:40:45All day.
00:40:47That's correct.
00:40:48They pour it right over their head.
00:40:50No, that's Indy.
00:40:51That's Indy 500.
00:40:52Indy.
00:40:53That's the Indy 500, yes.
00:40:55Yeah.
00:40:56Yeah.
00:40:57We'll get to that in just a little bit.
00:40:59But we wanted to hear from the people, Jim, right?
00:41:01Because all the changes that we are seeing to all-star formats
00:41:04in a variety of our professional sports, like we just had the Pro Bowl games,
00:41:09nobody cared.
00:41:11Now we've got a new format for the all-star game trying to, I believe,
00:41:15make the actual games between all-stars more exciting and incentivized.
00:41:21I'm not sure this new format is going to do that.
00:41:24Do we still love the dunk contest?
00:41:26It's not the stars of the sport.
00:41:28It's basically Mack McClung each and every year.
00:41:31So we wanted to hear from the people.
00:41:33Do you still care about All-Star Weekend?
00:41:36And if so, what's your favorite night?
00:41:39We do that now in Fade the Public.
00:41:48At SportsGrid on Twitter,
00:41:50what is your favorite night of NBA All-Star Weekend?
00:41:55I'm not sure Adam Silver watches the early line.
00:41:57I don't know if he pays attention to SportsGrid programming.
00:42:00Not sure he follows the Spiz Grizz on Twitter.
00:42:03But if he were to see this show, at least by our audience's sample size
00:42:07in this Fade the Public poll,
00:42:09not a great indication that All-Star Weekend is doing all that hot.
00:42:14What is your favorite night of All-Star Weekend?
00:42:16I don't watch it all.
00:42:18Is the runaway winner with 73% of the votes?
00:42:24The Chuck R. Clemens DFS replied,
00:42:28the night it's over.
00:42:31That's not great, Joe.
00:42:33That's not great.
00:42:34For what it's worth, I voted for Saturday.
00:42:36I still think the dunk contest is kind of fun.
00:42:38Three-point contest, kind of fun.
00:42:42But that was really the vote I had.
00:42:44Rene, which way did you vote?
00:42:46Do you think the public got it at all wrong by saying,
00:42:49I don't watch it all?
00:42:51No, this will be one of the few times that I will be backing the public
00:42:56in a very big way here, Ben, because come Sunday,
00:43:00I can't think of anything worse that I'd want to do than try to figure out
00:43:05the rules of this new format as I'm watching it going.
00:43:08What are these uniforms and who are these people and what is going on?
00:43:13I am with them.
00:43:14As soon as it is over is the best part of All-Star Weekend.
00:43:19And yet we are here in this third hour previewing it all and trying to give
00:43:24you some weekend winners for those of you that might be invested.
00:43:29Let's start with the actual All-Star Game format.
00:43:32Can we even call it an All-Star Game?
00:43:34It's All-Star Game format now for Sunday night.
00:43:38It is not the track meet we have seen the last decade plus.
00:43:42It doesn't involve the Elam ending anymore to try to make the fourth
00:43:46quarter competitive. It is simply this.
00:43:50We have four teams.
00:43:51We have divided all of our All-Stars into four teams that will be coached in
00:43:56essence by NBA and Turner Sports personalities, Charles Barkley,
00:44:01Kenny Smith, Shaquille O'Neal, and Candice Parker.
00:44:06All of our games on All-Star Sunday night will be a race.
00:44:10The first to 40, we have two semifinal matchups,
00:44:14and then a championship game to crown the All-Star Champion.
00:44:18So Chuck's Global Stars, Shea Gilgis-Alexander,
00:44:22Nicola Jokic, Donovan Mitchell, Alperen Shingoon, Pascal Siakam,
00:44:27Carl Anthony Towns, Victor Wiminyama, Trey Young.
00:44:31Shaq's OGs, Jalen Brown, Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, James Harden,
00:44:36Kyrie Irving, LeBron James, Damian Lillard, Jason Tatum.
00:44:40Kenny's Young Stars, Jalen Brunson, Kate Cunningham, Anthony Edwards,
00:44:45Darius Garland, Tyler Hero, Jaron Jackson Jr., Evan Mobley, Jalen Williams.
00:44:50And then Candice Parker will coach the Rising Stars Champion from
00:44:55tonight's matchups where we also have four teams coached by NBA
00:45:00stars of past and present, or I guess mostly past.
00:45:04And then she'll take over, Candice Parker will.
00:45:06That Rising Stars champs for the All-Star Games on Sunday.
00:45:10The format, those two semifinal games, first to 40.
00:45:14Two winners of the semifinal matchups will play each other in the
00:45:18All-Star Game Championship on Sunday, also first to 40.
00:45:23I hope that made sense.
00:45:25I'm not sure it did.
00:45:28But isn't the championship, how does the, is it all 240, Ben?
00:45:34I'm trying to think, because I think the championship is supposed to be
00:45:37to 25 or, they're all towards 40.
00:45:41So are we going to get some sort of defense now?
00:45:44Is that what we're supposed to be?
00:45:46Like, because this is, 40 could be done and the game could be over
00:45:50in two and a half minutes the way they play defense here.
00:45:53So I call me crazy.
00:45:55Are we expecting this number of 40 to create more guys
00:45:59interested in playing defense?
00:46:04Is the shorter sprint going to mean better basketball?
00:46:10Right.
00:46:11You can just play fast.
00:46:12So try to end it quickly and actually play what looks to be more like
00:46:17in competitive NBA game.
00:46:19Or is it just like, who cares?
00:46:20Let's throw it around and see who gets the 41st.
00:46:23I have no idea.
00:46:24I'm not sure the players, the coaches or anybody involved
00:46:27has any sort of idea.
00:46:30Joe, I still voted for All-Star Saturday, by the way.
00:46:33I don't care about the Skills Challenge, like whatever.
00:46:35I still think the three-point contest is fun.
00:46:38Damian Lillard trying to make history to become the third ever
00:46:42three-peat champion alongside Larry Bird,
00:46:45who won the first three, and Craig Hodges,
00:46:48who won three in a row in the early 90s.
00:46:52Cool.
00:46:53He's a three-to-one favorite.
00:46:55Dunk Contest also looking for a three-peat champion.
00:46:59Somebody get Matt McClellan awake and ready to go.
00:47:02He's a minus 210 favorite.
00:47:05I still think it's fun, right, even if the dunks aren't necessarily new,
00:47:09innovative or creative.
00:47:11And maybe it's not LeBron James versus Anthony Edwards in the dunk
00:47:15contest, but it's still kind of cool to see guys dunk a basketball
00:47:19in a wild way.
00:47:22Well, especially if you're 6'2 and don't even play in the NBA.
00:47:26I think that's fantastic.
00:47:28I think really that's the way to approach it here.
00:47:30Oh, I'm sorry, two-way contract.
00:47:32I forgot.
00:47:33Way to go, Orlando.
00:47:35And how much worse could it get for you, Orlando, by the way?
00:47:37You can't score anyway, so why not bring a guy that's 6'2 that can jump
00:47:41over everyone and dunk?
00:47:42But I'm not betting against him, Ben.
00:47:45I'm with you.
00:47:46I'll lay it.
00:47:48Yeah.
00:47:49All right.
00:47:50We'll talk about those picks for the dunk contest and beyond a little bit
00:47:54later.
00:47:56If you needed more from All-Star Weekend, it starts tonight.
00:47:58Our Rising Stars competition, Handicaps and Breakdowns.
00:48:05All-Star Weekend in the NBA starts tonight with the Rising Stars Challenge.
00:48:11Much like the NBA All-Star Games on Sunday night, a similar format.
00:48:17Four teams, two semifinal games, the race to 40, first to 40 wins.
00:48:23And then in the championship game, it's the first to only 25.
00:48:28An additional wrinkle to the Rising Stars competition, the winner of
00:48:32tonight's Rising Stars competition will play on Sunday, coached by Candice
00:48:37Parker in the All-Star Game, and square off in their opening matchup
00:48:42against Shaq's OGs.
00:48:44Maybe we start to talk about the format.
00:48:46How does Shaq's OGs get an easier path to the final?
00:48:50Because they got LeBron?
00:48:51I don't know.
00:48:52Anyway, different story for a different time.
00:48:55Just quickly, Joe, here are the odds for tonight's Rising Stars competition
00:48:59inside the Chase Center.
00:49:00Team Mitch Richmond, plus 150.
00:49:03Team Chris Mullin, maybe he's still in the good tides of St. John's
00:49:07Men's Basketball at this moment.
00:49:09Team Tim Hardaway, that would be Tim Hardaway Senior, not Junior, who
00:49:14still plays in the NBA.
00:49:15And how about some Lynn Sanity?
00:49:17Team Jeremy Lynn, who is coaching the G League guys, or at least
00:49:21Team G League.
00:49:23His team, not great.
00:49:24Matt McClung playing in this.
00:49:26Reed Shepard out there, which is kind of cool.
00:49:29A bunch of two-way players.
00:49:30In my estimation, I think the best team, and this is just my estimation,
00:49:37is Team Chris Mullin.
00:49:38Steph Castle, Ryan Dunn, Keontae George, Zach Eaddy, and Trace Jackson
00:49:45Davis, Dalton Connect, and Jalen Wells.
00:49:48We can list all the teams, if you guys would even care, if you would even
00:49:53know half of the players by name.
00:49:55But that's the Rising Stars odds for tonight.
00:49:58That will be included, of course, in our All-Star Weekend Pick 6 to end
00:50:02out this edition of the Early Line.
00:50:05Yes.
00:50:06Interesting.
00:50:07There are, you know, the interesting part about it, though, Ben, is that
00:50:10some of these teams and some of these players playing in this game here
00:50:14tonight, that's the future of the NBA, man.
00:50:17There are some kids in these games playing tonight.
00:50:20They're going to be around the NBA for the next couple of decades.
00:50:23So get used to their names, because there's a few really, really good
00:50:27ones on the court tonight.
00:50:29On Team T, Team Tim Hardaway, we have the first and second overall picks
00:50:34from this past summer.
00:50:36That would be Zachary Rizasche and Alex Saar.
00:50:40They are the French guys that are trying to take the NBA by storm.
00:50:46All right.
00:50:47That's the Rising Stars Challenge.
00:50:49Again, semifinal matchups.
00:50:51First to 40.
00:50:52Championship game.
00:50:53First to 25.
00:50:55The champion of the Rising Stars Challenge will play on All-Star Sunday
00:50:59night in their opening round matchup against Team Shaq.
00:51:02Shaq's OGs looking to make some noise and pull off an upset against guys
00:51:07like LeBron James, Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, James Harden, Kyrie Irving,
00:51:11so on and so forth.
00:51:13That's got to be pretty cool, so maybe some incentives to stick around
00:51:17for the entirety of All-Star weekend.
00:51:20We don't care if you don't want it.
00:51:22Here it is.
00:51:23Let's win some money throughout All-Star weekend.
00:51:26Maybe it's not the most exciting, and maybe the format is confusing,
00:51:31and you don't understand it.
00:51:33Doesn't mean we can't profit from it.
00:51:35With some value plays and some winners for an NBA All-Star weekend pick six.
00:51:41Live right here on The Early Line.
00:51:44He is Gervin Airey.
00:51:45I am Ben Stevens.
00:51:46We will give you an All-Star game winner for the All-Star games that we have
00:51:50on Sunday.
00:51:51All-Star game MVP as well.
00:51:55Dunk contest winner.
00:51:57Three-point contest winner.
00:51:59Skills challenge winner.
00:52:00All of that All-Star Saturday night.
00:52:02And it kicks off tonight in San Francisco with the Rising Stars challenge.
00:52:07So, Joe, without further ado, who's winning the All-Star games this year?
00:52:12Is it Shaq's OGs?
00:52:13Is it Chuck's Global Stars?
00:52:15Is it Kenny's Young Stars?
00:52:18Is it Candice's Rising Stars?
00:52:21Who comes home with an All-Star game trophy?
00:52:24Ben, I think it's very hard to go against Chuck here,
00:52:28and I think that's probably where I'm going to go.
00:52:31It's a little chalky, but Team Chuck, to me,
00:52:33there's just a ridiculous amount of quality players on this team.
00:52:39The only thing you have to worry about in this market, Ben, is motivation, right?
00:52:45It usually comes from the younger guys, not necessarily the older guys,
00:52:49but I do think that there's just too much talent on Team Chuck to pass up
00:52:54taking the two-to-one while you can.
00:52:57And they are not the favorites.
00:52:59The even-money favorites are Shaquille O'Neal's OGs,
00:53:02featuring guys like LeBron, Steph, KD, Jason Tatum, James Harden,
00:53:07and so on and so forth.
00:53:10I would disagree.
00:53:12I think currently, and again, we don't know motivation
00:53:15or incentivized enthusiasm for this game,
00:53:19but, Joe, I actually think the most talented team is the one that you have selected,
00:53:23Chuck's Global Stars, Shea Gildress Alexander,
00:53:25Nikola Jokic, the two frontrunners in a large way to win NBA MVP.
00:53:30Jokic doesn't care much about all-star games,
00:53:33but maybe he'll be a little bit more bought in
00:53:35because it's a race not to 250, but only 40 points this year.
00:53:40And you've got guys like Donovan Mitchell, Trey Young, Carl Anthony Towns,
00:53:44and then Pascal Siakam, Alperin Shingun, and Victor Wemenyama
00:53:48in his first all-star game.
00:53:50And we know Wemby cares about these things,
00:53:53so maybe that is enough.
00:53:56Joe, I'm going to go with a slight upset,
00:53:59and this is mainly a money thing, a numbers thing, if you will,
00:54:04because you can bet the individual semifinal matchups
00:54:07that will lead to the championship all-star game.
00:54:11And the market is kind of working to my guy.
00:54:13Kenny's Young Stars in their opening round game
00:54:17against your pick, Chuck's Global Stars.
00:54:21Three-and-a-half point spread was four-and-a-half yesterday,
00:54:25minus 160 money line in favor of Chuck, plus 130 for Kenny.
00:54:30Joe, I believe the winner of that game is going to win the all-star game overall.
00:54:35I'll probably give the odd to Shaq's OGs against Candice's Rising Stars
00:54:41because you'll have LeBron against some G League two-way guys
00:54:44you've never probably heard of in your life,
00:54:46and they're a six-and-a-half point favorite.
00:54:49But I think the winner of Chuck's Global Stars or Kenny's Young Stars
00:54:53wins the entire thing.
00:54:54Why?
00:54:55Motivation, incentivized nature of getting there and knocking off the OGs
00:55:02that have been doing this for a while, and you're like,
00:55:04all right, whatever.
00:55:05And I like the Young Stars.
00:55:06Jalen Brunson, seven years in the NBA, but sure,
00:55:11Cade Cunningham, Anthony Edwards, Darius Garland, Tyler Hero,
00:55:15Jaron Jackson Jr., Evan Motley, two of the most dynamic front-court stars
00:55:19in the NBA, and Jalen Williams.
00:55:22And if I think this young group is young and hungry to make a statement
00:55:26in some of their first-ever all-star appearances,
00:55:29or maybe just the first handful in their career,
00:55:32I'll take the Young Stars at a plus-4.10 price
00:55:35to win the NBA all-star game.
00:55:37Why not?
00:55:39Listen, I have absolutely no issue with that handicap, Ben,
00:55:44because you're right, why not?
00:55:47The reality is we have no idea the motivation of what we're going to get
00:55:51from the old-school guys here that are going to be on these teams here.
00:55:54I mean, LeBron usually doesn't go to these things expecting to lose
00:55:57or wanting to lose.
00:55:59But, you know, I can't imagine that Jokic and SGA and Carl Anthony Towns
00:56:06and Wembley, you know, Wembley was the deciding factor for me
00:56:09because something tells me he's a guy still trying to fit in,
00:56:13still trying to make his mark, and I think this could be
00:56:17the all-star game coming-out party for him as well.
00:56:20And Victor Wiminyama, tied for the second-best price
00:56:23to win all-star game MVP.
00:56:26Steph Curry is the favorite at 5-1, but Wembley there with his international
00:56:30or global teammate SGA, Shea Gildas Alexander, at 8-1,
00:56:34and LeBron James at an 8-1 price as well.
00:56:37LeBron and Dave a part of the OGs squad.
00:56:41Of course, Joe, it should be correlated.
00:56:44You would expect the winner of this format to then have the MVP on its roster.
00:56:50So who is your selection for the all-star game MVP?
00:56:54Listen, the fact that you can get this guy at 8-1 is just give me SGA.
00:57:01He appears to be a guy that's unstoppable in any format,
00:57:05in any way, shape, or form, and while it's certainly easy to pick
00:57:09some of the bigger-name guys here, I still think he's undervalued,
00:57:13and something tells me he's going to try to keep adding to the mantle
00:57:17as many trophies as possible.
00:57:19I think at 8-1, worth a flyer here with him.
00:57:23I'll go to Jalen Brunson, who you see at the bottom of that board at 18-1.
00:57:27If I think Kenny's Young Stars can win, Brunson provides that veteran status
00:57:32perhaps for Kenny's Young Stars.
00:57:35Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe this is just all-star nod number two
00:57:39in Brunson's career each of the previous two seasons.
00:57:43And if you go to the Garden right now, every time Brunson touches the ball,
00:57:47MVP chants rain out inside MSG.
00:57:52So if I think Kenny's Young Stars are going to win it,
00:57:55give me Jalen Brunson to lead the way at an 18-1 price
00:57:59to win all-star game MVP.
00:58:02There is a lot of consideration for the Knicks MVP to maybe do just that, Joe,
00:58:07for the all-star game MVP as well.
00:58:11On the other side of the break, bear with us.
00:58:13We'll continue our all-star weekend winners and this Pick 6.
00:58:17We'll fly through all-stars Saturday night, give you a rising stars pick
00:58:21to tip off the weekend on this Friday and maybe a college basketball best bet
00:58:25for this Friday evening as well before we head out.
00:58:29A lot to do before we round out the show.
00:58:32On the other side of the break, live right here on a Friday
00:58:35on the Early Line on SportsCenter.
00:58:37Come back and join us.
00:58:38Let's continue our all-star weekend Pick 6 and go now to all-star Saturday night,
00:58:43dunk contest, three-point contest skills challenge.
00:58:47Joe, let's start with the dunk contest.
00:58:49Will it be a three-peat for Mac McClung, the star of the Osceola Magic,
00:58:55who has played in one NBA game this year for the Orlando Magic
00:58:59and yet is looking to win his third consecutive dunk contest crown?
00:59:04I mean, what are we supposed to do here?
00:59:07I mean, how are we betting against anything that is 6-4-2 G-Leaguer
00:59:13on a two-way contract on Orlando?
00:59:16Every time he rises, what did he do, jump over Shaq last year
00:59:19to get another perfect score and win?
00:59:22I mean, it's a $2.00 favorite for a reason.
00:59:26I would not be shocked, Ben, that before this event goes off,
00:59:30this thing gets up to over $3.00, maybe even minus $3.50.
00:59:35I love the other guys in the competition, but everything they do, Ben,
00:59:40is going to look the same.
00:59:42Anything he does is going to stand out to those in the crowd.
00:59:46I can understand the betting philosophy of saying,
00:59:49I'm not going to lay a wager of greater than $2.00 in minus money
00:59:53for something as random and subjective as a dunk contest
00:59:56where often the judges like to joke more than they actually like to watch
01:00:00the actual event. I get that.
01:00:02Modest Bruzelis, the rookie for the Bulls, little Boozy Vert,
01:00:05he's got some ups, 5-1.
01:00:07How about a pair of former UConn players, Andre Jackson, Jr.,
01:00:10for Milwaukee, Steph Castle, a rookie for San Antonio, plus $7.50.
01:00:14I understand it.
01:00:15But I think Mac McClung is a favorite for a reason.
01:00:18This is all he does.
01:00:20This is what he does.
01:00:22I'm not going to bet against that, if we could even bet it here stateside,
01:00:26these numbers courtesy of our Canadian friends on the FanDuel sportsbook.
01:00:31But maybe you can find your way of laying down a wager.
01:00:34Three-point contest, Joe.
01:00:35Who wins it?
01:00:38I mean, my goodness.
01:00:40It's one of these situations where Lillard going for a three-peat here.
01:00:45He has gotten 26 points in four consecutive rounds
01:00:49during these back-to-back wins.
01:00:51That is a level of consistency that's out of control.
01:00:55Darius Garland, though, and I think Tyler Hero are right there.
01:01:00I think they have an opportunity to get it done at a pretty decent price.
01:01:05We talked about it.
01:01:06Tyler Hero, 3 of 14 yesterday.
01:01:09Wasn't great, but that means he's not going to miss in this one.
01:01:13He is fifth in the league in three-pointers this year.
01:01:1638% three-point shooter.
01:01:18Tyler Hero, for me, at that price.
01:01:21Poetic.
01:01:22A 3 of 14 guy then going to win the three-point contest
01:01:25just a couple of nights later.
01:01:28Donnie's guy is Norm Powell for the L.A. Clippers.
01:01:31And that's kind of the early lines guy has become Norman Powell
01:01:36of the L.A. Clippers.
01:01:37Having a sensational year at plus 650.
01:01:41I will take a shot.
01:01:42We're talking about three or two three-peat opportunities.
01:01:46Mac McClung trying to join Nate Robinson
01:01:48as the only three-peat champs of the dunk contest.
01:01:51Damian Lillard, the favorite to win the three-point contest.
01:01:54Trying to become just the third ever to win three in a row.
01:01:57The first since Craig Hodges in the early 90s
01:02:00who won three straight after Larry Bird won three straight
01:02:04in the first three years of the three-point contest.
01:02:08Skills challenge tomorrow night as well.
01:02:12Joe, what do you like?
01:02:14Listen, again, I think this is going to be a big opportunity
01:02:18for Victor Webayama.
01:02:21And I love his partner of Chris Paul,
01:02:23who is not going to be at many of these events for much longer here.
01:02:28So I think this is a good opportunity to be able to go out.
01:02:31I know Moody and Draymond are going to be the crowd favorites there
01:02:35with Team Warriors.
01:02:36But I think the Spurs, Team Spurs, got a good shot at taking this home.
01:02:41You got Team Cavs as the favorite.
01:02:43Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley, two all-stars.
01:02:46Maybe that's why they get the nod.
01:02:48I'm going with Team Rooks.
01:02:49Give me Zachary Rezache and Alex Saar.
01:02:53Trying to remind everybody, hey, we were the first
01:02:55and second overall picks for a reason.
01:02:59Rising stars challenge, Joe.
01:03:01I'm going with Team C, led by Chris Mullin, who has some coaching chops.
01:03:05Basically, here's the handicap.
01:03:07I think they're a talented group.
01:03:09And if you're going to put Zach Eady, the Purdue legend,
01:03:11and Trace Jackson Davis, the Indiana legend, on the same team,
01:03:15you're going to get my money.
01:03:17Yeah, I don't hate that either.
01:03:19I'm going to go with my man Tim Hardaway, Tim T. here.
01:03:23I love Jaime Hawkins, Jr.
01:03:25Rezache, Saar, you talked about it.
01:03:29Pozanski there who plays in that building.
01:03:31I think Tim T has got a good opportunity to get it done.
01:03:35Don't forget, the winner of tonight's Rising Stars Challenge
01:03:38plays in the all-star game festivities on Sunday.
01:03:43Quickly, college basketball best bet for this Friday.
01:03:45Go.
01:03:46UCLA, minus one and a half.
01:03:49Love it.
01:03:50I'm going with San Jose State at home.
01:03:52One of the best cover teams in the country,
01:03:54getting six and a half against Nevada.
01:03:56Have a great weekend, everybody.
01:03:58We'll talk to you Monday.