The greatest risk of severe weather so far in 2025 is going to be on Feb. 15, as the system that caused damaging floods in California collides with warm air over the Southeast.
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00:00So to help break all of this down, the details here, we're now joined by ACUEA chief meteorologist
00:05John Porter. And John, yes, here as we head throughout this afternoon, as we head into
00:09tonight, we will see a little bit of a calm before the storm. But yes, heading into tomorrow,
00:13that's whenever everything is going to change. Yeah, that's right, Damian. And you mentioned
00:17that we have a battleground setting up between burgeoning spring warmth here along the I-10
00:23corridor and much colder weather to the north. And right on that battleground, that's where we're
00:28going to have this new storm system develop and intensify. And this is a dangerous setup here as
00:33we take a look at a severe thunderstorm and tornado risk. And especially concerning is that
00:39the peak of the severe weather risk is going to be from about 4 p.m. Saturday through about 2 a.m.
00:46on Sunday Central Time. So a lot of that time is after dark, Damian. That's right, John. So as we
00:52put this in motion, you can see that the highest potential for that severe weather threat really
00:57kicking off across the Mississippi is going to be during the late afternoon into early evening
01:01hours. And unfortunately for majority of this region, it looks like this could primarily
01:05be a nighttime event, which adds all kinds of different dangers. It does. And here's the first
01:10setup around 6 p.m. on Saturday. Notice there's a few thunderstorms starting to develop out ahead
01:15of a line of storms. And we'll watch those thunderstorms first because they're the ones
01:20that may have a tendency to rotate and produce tornadoes early on. Then it looks like we're
01:26going to be dealing with a line of storms that's going to progress from Arkansas, Louisiana and
01:31race eastward across Mississippi and into Alabama, producing widespread damaging wind gusts of 60 to
01:3780 miles per hour and the risk for tornadoes as well. And as you mentioned, that occurring at
01:43night is a special concern because tornadoes that happen after dark are tragically 2.5 times
01:50more likely to produce fatalities than tornadoes that happen during the day. So there's an elevated
01:55risk level with nighttime tornadoes and we're going to be dealing with that here on Saturday
01:59night into the first part of Sunday morning across multiple parts of the states in the south.
02:04That's right, John. And then as we head into the overnight hours, we'll stop on the clock here at
02:07midnight. This is Saturday night, Sunday morning. You can see that those isolated discrete supercell
02:12thunderstorms on the leading edge are going to start to be absorbed by the main line. So at that
02:17time during the overnight hours, the primary risk is going to shift from a tornado threat to a
02:21damaging wind and flooding threat. That is that's a well said and we're going to be dealing with
02:26still the risk for quick spin ups. Tornadoes can develop quickly and some of those can be intense
02:33even along that line of thunderstorms. So we want people to have the AccuWeather app to download
02:39the AccuWeather app, turn on push notifications so you can stay informed. And it's not only across
02:43the near the Gulf Coast, that risk can also occur up across parts of Tennessee, including Nashville
02:49and even up as far north as Kentucky. With this setup, there's a lot of jet stream energy with
02:53this storm system. It's the same storm system that brought all of that flooding and wind to
02:58the West Coast, including California, heading eastbound. And that's why we're going to have a
03:03variety of impacts here. And we're leaving to see a threat of severe weather, even as we had in a
03:07Sunday morning and a Sunday afternoon there. You can see across the East Coast with that lingering
03:12line of storms as it continues to work its way through. But John, for tomorrow, this is the
03:17primary zone we are going to be watching out for. For some of these areas, this is going to be the
03:20highest severe weather potential that we have seen so far this season. It is. And if you look,
03:26it's a multi-state area here with this risk. Of course, the greatest risk across parts of southeast
03:32Arkansas, northeastern parishes of Louisiana through Mississippi and up into Tennessee
03:37and Alabama as well. But anywhere where you see some risk, if you live in these areas or you have
03:43friends or family that live in that area, give them a call. Let them know about that risk,
03:48because that's a great way to keep people informed. Download the AccuWeather app and
03:52turn on push notifications. That's right, John. As we look at the threat levels that we're going
03:56to be tracking as far as the impacts, yes, flash flooding, damaging winds, some hail possible. But
04:00yes, there is going to be the highest tornado threat of the season for some of these areas.
04:05And occurring at night as we're talking about in these major cities and also lots of rural
04:10communities here. Also, please be especially aware if you live in a mobile home that you may
04:15need extra time to get out. And so if when a tornado watch is issued in your area or certainly
04:21warnings, be ready to make that move to safe shelter. That's right, John. So now as we head
04:26into this time of year, it is time for the Dixie Alley region to start to pay attention for their
04:33severe weather outlooks to clean out those storm shelters today and get ready for the potential
04:37of severe weather starting tomorrow. That's correct. And a little bit of preparation always
04:41goes a long way. And we're also going to be dealing with don't let your guard down on the
04:45flash flooding risk here to heavy rain over the same areas. This can produce life threatening
04:51flash flooding as well across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Some of the same areas at
04:56risk for severe weather. Watch for and avoid rapidly rising water, especially if you're
05:01driving. Don't ever drive in areas where water covers the road. So many fatalities unnecessarily
05:07happen in that kind of situation. If you encounter water at all, please turn around and find an
05:11alternate route. Flash flooding a big concern as well. That's right. Kentucky is going to see a lot
05:16of water here as we head throughout the day tomorrow. So, yes, this is a perfect opportunity
05:20if you haven't done so yet to download our free AccuWeather app. That's great and a great way to
05:25stay informed. You can track your community and also places where your friends or family are
05:29located. And all of these tools are here to help you to be better informed and stay safer. That's
05:36what we do here at AccuWeather. But just want to remind everyone, let your friends and family know
05:41in these areas. People live busy lives and sometimes just simply letting them know that
05:44there's a severe weather risk can be so helpful for them to be best prepared. All right. Thank
05:49you so much. AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist John Porter. We'll check in with you coming up. Thanks.