Pasar saham ditutup melemah pada perdagangan Rabu, dengan mayoritas sektor berada di zona merah. Salah satu sektor yang terdampak signifikan adalah keuangan yang turun hampir 2% dan properti terkoreksi 0,80% usai Bank Indonesia (BI) memutuskan untuk mempertahankan suku bunga acuannya di level 5,75%.
Sementara pada Kamis waktu Indonesia, Federal Reserve atau bank sentral AS akan merilis hasil rapat kebijakan Januari, di mana para anggota tampak memilih untuk membiarkan suku bunga tidak berubah di tengah tanda-tanda kenaikan inflasi dan antisipasi dampak yang belum diketahui dari ancaman tarif Presiden Trump.
Sementara pada Kamis waktu Indonesia, Federal Reserve atau bank sentral AS akan merilis hasil rapat kebijakan Januari, di mana para anggota tampak memilih untuk membiarkan suku bunga tidak berubah di tengah tanda-tanda kenaikan inflasi dan antisipasi dampak yang belum diketahui dari ancaman tarif Presiden Trump.
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TVTranscript
00:00From Asia, the main indexes, we have just seen all the stocks moving in the negative territory
00:09and following yesterday's IHSG, which has fallen earlier, Mr. Meersa, what is the opportunity
00:14when the Indonesian branch also holds the flower family?
00:17We will discuss this morning with Mr. Santosa Kristianus Gunawan, Director PT Lotus Andalan
00:22Security.
00:23Good morning, Mr. Sani.
00:24Good morning, Ms. Frita.
00:25Thank you for the amazing news.
00:26But our market, is it good for the opportunity to enter again after a great surge at the beginning
00:33of the week or not good because it just rose a few days ago, it has fallen again.
00:40How is your analysis of the IHSG index and its correlation with the decision of Bank Indonesia
00:47yesterday?
00:48Yes, of course, the current market condition is affected by the global condition, yes.
00:54So, related to the trade war, the delay in the tariff reduction in Canada and Mexico,
01:05which was delayed for 30 days, yes, so around the end of the month or the beginning of next
01:13month, yes, we will see the effect of all of this, this is a concern for the decision of
01:20the flower family yesterday.
01:23The BI still hasn't changed, yes, it has a BI rate of 5.75, which indicates that this global
01:31condition is still YMT, even in the BI report, the flower family decrease in the US, yes,
01:41the decision of the Fed, this is a decrease, maybe once in 2025.
01:47So, that's a consideration from the BI, it hasn't changed, it has a flower family,
01:54that's how it is.
01:56So, if you look at the weakness of the IHSG index, again, what the action takes advantage
02:02of is banking, then there are also properties, two sectors that are considered quite sensitive
02:07to the decision of the flower family.
02:09Actually, with a 5.75% hold, then from the Fed, Central Bank of America also holds the
02:15flower family through the issue that was just announced last night.
02:19What is actually the main concern?
02:23Shouldn't it be fine when it's held?
02:28What do you think, Mr. Sani?
02:30Yes, indeed, this flower family has an impact on both sectors, especially in terms of
02:41banking and property.
02:43So, there is one concern that I pay attention to.
02:50So, this flower family decrease is considered a bit difficult, for example, with the tariff
03:00war, then the cheap labor force in the US is also returned, because there are many illegal
03:07migrants in the US.
03:09So, it will have an impact that we have never seen before, in terms of efficiency also
03:19done by the Trump administration and also the Indonesian government, which allocates
03:26financing to other things.
03:31But they want to try to stimulate economic growth.
03:38So, Indonesia is also expected to be able to stimulate economic growth by eating free
03:45lunch in 2025.
03:48So, like that, Mr. Sani.
03:50Okay.
03:51In the middle of the long term from the banking sector, more than 2%, you see that this is
03:55just a momentum, with the presence of the Indonesian flower family sentiment, maybe.
04:00Then, because it has risen in the last few days, especially the IHSG also tested 6,900.
04:05Is this just a momentum to take advantage, or how do you base your prospects from the
04:11banking sector first, before we go to property?
04:14Yes, I see there are still doubts about the growth of the banking sector in 2025.
04:21Because indeed, for the distribution of funds from the banking sector, it is also quite high.
04:32So, the growth of the banking sector is expected to be difficult in 2025.
04:38So, the distribution is also questioned.
04:42Because indeed, if I pay attention to consumer confidence or consumer spending, there are
04:51a lot of people who are now spending so they are holding back.
04:56And for the distribution of loans, it is estimated that in 2025, it will stagnate.
05:03There is even a tendency to decline.
05:05Like that, Mr. Priset.
05:06Okay.
05:07So, what is your recommendation for now, in the middle of a recession that the majority
05:12is experiencing a re-correction, Mr. Sani?
05:15Yes, so yesterday, rebound as a result of a very deep decline in the banking sector.
05:23So, the confidence in the banking sector yesterday was okay.
05:27There was a rebound, so it was not released.
05:31For my recommendation, this bank is waiting, if there is a pressure, hopefully, with the
05:41payment of interest on February 24, I am confident.
05:47So, we are not left behind in this capital market.
05:51So, there are a lot of investors who are now, or lately, or before, it's like a loss of
05:57direction.
05:58What is the role of the government?
06:00When will it intervene in the capital market?
06:02But now we are confident.
06:04I am personally confident.
06:06So, when there is a decline in the banking sector or the financial sector, I am sure that
06:11it is their momentum to enter or intervene in the market.
06:15Like that, Mrs. Priset.
06:17So, Mr. Sani is optimistic with the existence of Danantara.
06:21It means there is a role of the government there.
06:23The government is not, what is it, careful with the existence of Danantara.
06:30Because many people are worried that Danantara has been a bit long, why is it not officialized?
06:37What positive sentiment do you expect from the presence of Danantara?
06:42Psychology, Mrs. Priset.
06:43Psychology.
06:44Market psychology, investor psychology, it can be said that it will improve.
06:52What used to be pessimistic about the condition, for example, if SAMSAM falls, now, last week,
07:00SAMSAM even rebounded.
07:03This is what makes, so I personally as an observer, also analyzing the conditions in the market,
07:11it can be said that this is good.
07:14Because indeed, if the banking sector falls in and is allowed to decline,
07:20this confidence from the capital market towards the entire sector will disappear.
07:24And with the increase in the banking sector, I am a bit optimistic,
07:28even though there may be another correction, because my position is WNC,
07:32and also in the next few months, 1-2 months, there will be a long vacation.
07:38Like that, Mrs. Priset.
07:39Okay, the banking position right now, the opportunity is more to the WNC,
07:44especially we want to face a long vacation, idul fitri, like that.
07:48But with the presence of Danantara, you said, psychologically,
07:50it will arouse optimism and self-confidence of the market players.
07:54Okay, so is SAMSAM Banking or properties that are sensitive to the Bunga tribe,
07:58included in your recommendation today?
08:00We will review it, stay with us at MarketBus.
08:09MarketBus.