🇧🇷 BRASIL PUEDE ENTRAR EN RECESIÓN ECONÓMICA
Crisis y caída del real.
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Crisis y caída del real.
🗣️ @edubattaglia
👉 Seguí en #VivoElSábado
📺 Mirá A24 en vivo por Youtube
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00:00and what happens in brazil with the economy that happens with a moment in which we have to
00:07pay close attention to it, we are not going to talk about football, we are talking about recession, it is
00:13recession, specifically, technically, what is going through Brazil, Gustavo Segre is in
00:19communication with us, Gustavo, good morning, good morning, Eduardo, good morning, the audience, good for
00:25now, Eduardo, there is no recession, but all the alerts are on because I listened
00:32very carefully to what Damian said, you know what was the best investment in Brazil in the
00:36last 12 months, buying avocado and the second buying tangerine and the third buying eggs 70
00:46percent was the increase of eggs 60 percent of 68 of the avocado and 60 percent of the tangerine this
00:55of course it may sound strange we are not talking about food but the truth is that the government of
01:00President Lula throughout 2024 placed anabolic in the economy a lot of silver plan then the
01:07economy grew 3.8 percent is the previous to the central bank the problem is that for this year
01:122025 there is not so much money the government spent a lot spent badly the fiscal deficit is growing
01:18and that generates that the interest rate in the central bank has to go up at this time 13.25
01:25percent and it must continue to rise this will generate a cooling of the economy and consequently
01:31it can bring a recession remembering that recession has any country enters with two
01:35quarters of economy with a negative sign this is seen from the second half of this
01:42year and the government does not draw any card from the sleeve there is concern in the government of
01:48Lula a lot of concern because there are elections next year next year we have presidential elections
01:54the popularity of President Lula is at the lowest level of the last three governments of
02:00him are 24 percent approval very low for a president who is popular as President
02:07Lula inflation is running everything and yet you notice Eduardo that the official inflation is
02:134.83 percent a year but when you are going to buy eggs 70 percent more expensive the meat is expensive
02:20also then the Brazilian adjusts all the budget I say those values those increases
02:25they adjust you they disorganize everything absolutely and is placing subsidies so that the
02:31official inflation is not so great then for example for the light subsidies are being placed
02:37that lowers the inflation indicator a little but the truth is that when the average Brazilian
02:43goes to the supermarket, the money does not reach him and this has generated low popularity on the other side of
02:49the political crack, Bolsonaro was accused of trying a coup in the week. However, the
02:57accusation of the Attorney General of the Republic would be the Attorney General in Argentina has
03:03some gaps that are not understandable in what this complaint is armed with, the truth is that the
03:10ex-president with 33 or 34 more people will be being tried by the Supreme Court of Justice
03:17in which President Barroso in an event last year said we defeated bolsonarism with which it is
03:25speculated that there will not be much impartiality in that trial but in the law is what determines
03:31the law and we will have to wait for the president the ex-president bolsonaro accused of a coup
03:38Gustavo, it is said that the greatest tourist influx is in Brazil, do you see Argentines in Brazil, do you see that
03:47this depreciation of the real against the dollar actually leads more and more Argentines to go to
03:53the Brazilian territory? Hello Damián, yes of course and the explanation is quite simple in the year
04:002024 the peso was valued in relation to the highest point of the dollar 40% and the real
04:06was devalued at its highest point now it went down a little bit 27% so that suggests that any
04:15Argentine who comes to Brazil is with very low values in food in clothing
04:20remember that here in Brazil on the beaches you do not pay a tent to sit down to eat a shrimp a
04:28beer a fried potato and they give you a table with a stand without paying absolutely nothing the
04:34beaches have warmer water and the Brazilian knows how to treat the tourist so if there are many
04:41people from Argentina now in Brazil the classes have already started it is January the month of more euphoria
04:48on vacation but there is a lot of Argentine on the beaches of the south especially in the month of
04:53February here in joke they say that both Florianópolis and Camboriú as divers with vineyards in some
05:00way are also Argentine colonies in Brazil, only that Brazilians still do not know, that is,
05:06Brazil, what do you say, Gustavo, for knowing how the tourist issue is there in Brazil, it will be a destination
05:13throughout the year, Brazil for Argentines and for others, I think so, especially because
05:18despite the fact that the dollar here is loosening a little bit, it was 6.30 reales per dollar
05:23today it is at 5.70 reales per dollar it has had a drop of 78 percent but the truth is that it
05:29continues to be low I give you an example I was going to Buenos Aires to visit my mother who is
05:34seeing us then we send her greetings and when she did the calculation at the highest point a real was
05:40280 pesos today a real is 190 pesos that is to a very large fall and that causes that flood of
05:49Brazilians who were going to Argentina now a lot of Argentines who come to Brazil has been reversed
05:55Gustavo, you talked about the silver plan and I take you to another point that also seems to me that it is
06:01influencing, which is the issue of tax pressure because taxes in Brazil have increased, right?
06:06Look, they made a very stupid tax reform, as they say here, very rare, because it is a tax reform
06:13that has been taking place for 30 years in Congress, Brazil has a lot of taxes,
06:19and a lot of things that are going to put it together in just one, our well-known IVA, the problem is
06:27that they put so many benefits and incentives to some products that the aliquot must remain
06:33at 28 percent, the highest in the world, today the highest 27 percent Hungary is going to be 28
06:40percent Brazil and we have 21 percent of IVA in Argentina, 22 percent of IVA in Uruguay,
06:4619 percent of IVA in Chile and 10 percent in Paraguay, with which it will be very expensive from the
06:52tax point of view, Brazilian competitiveness, but this is going to start in 2033, that is, it is a
06:59tax reform that is like they tell you, look, get ready because in a few years, stick, there it is,
07:06for the grandchildren, right? What a scenario, right? The third presidency of Lula, because I heard you
07:13say, low popularity of Lula, Brazil complicated because the opposition is being investigated,
07:19that is, Bolsonaro investigated, a former president, and also as I told you, the government is worried,
07:24you told me yes because the elections are coming, that's how politicians think, they are not worried
07:28to turn around, to turn the economy around, Eduardo, let's remember that Bolsonaro is
07:35uneligible for now, he cannot compete in the elections of 2026, yesterday another right-wing
07:41businessman, a businessman Pablo Marçal, was also declared uneligible, it gives the feeling that
07:46Brazilian justice aims a little at right-wing candidates, when you don't have a candidate
07:52of one, the other side wins easily, which is what we have at the moment. Very good, Gustavo,
07:57a big hug from the whole team. A big hug, see you later.