Tropical Cyclone now expected to take a slower path, hitting just north of Brisbane around the afternoon of Friday March 7, 2025.
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00:00As we head into Wednesday evening, rain and wind are already building as Tropical Cyclone Alfred
00:05approaches southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales. Let's take a look at the latest
00:09warning situation, as well as what we can expect over the coming days, particularly around coastal
00:14crossing and beyond. Tropical Cyclone Alfred is currently a Category 2 system located around 300
00:19kilometres to the east of Brisbane. A Tropical Cyclone warning is current for communities
00:24between Double Island Point in the north and down towards Yamber and Grafton in northern New South
00:28Wales, and this includes the Sunshine Coast, Brisbane, the Gold Coast and the New South Wales
00:33northern rivers. This is for the imminent onset of gale force winds. Into Wednesday night and
00:38Thursday, we'll see these gale force to damaging winds extending into coastal areas, as well as
00:43heavy rainfall and significant coastal erosion due to damaging surf and abnormally high tides
00:48continuing. Then by Thursday night, impacts are expected to ramp up quite significantly,
00:53with the potential for destructive winds, intense rainfall leading to life-threatening flash flooding
00:58and a dangerous storm tide causing coastal inundation of some of those low-lying suburbs.
01:04Then into Friday, the latest track map does show Tropical Cyclone Alfred crossing the coast
01:08during Friday morning, but the exact timing of landfall will depend on how quickly it does
01:12approach and then move onto the coast. Regardless of the exact timing of the landfall, we can expect
01:17to see significant impacts well before landfall for many hours. And then heading into the rest
01:22of Friday, Tropical Cyclone Alfred is expected to be downgraded back into a Category 1 system and
01:27then a tropical low into the weekend, but we are still expected to see significant impacts all the
01:32way into Saturday, especially on the southern side of that Tropical Cyclone. This part of Australia
01:38is used to seeing severe thunderstorms in the spring and summer, and these of course can bring
01:42bursts of heavy rainfall and damaging to destructive winds. The difference though with a Tropical
01:46Cyclone is that wind and rain are sustained over many hours, and this can cause significant damage
01:51to property and vegetation, and of course cause life-threatening flash flooding. If you're away
01:57from the Tropical Cyclone warning area, we do also have a severe weather warning that extends all the
02:02way up to Gympie and down towards Coffs Harbour and the mid-north coast in New South Wales.
02:06Through these areas we may also see damaging to destructive wind gusts, as well as heavy to
02:10intense rainfall, and through this area we may see 24-hour rainfall totals of between 200 to
02:16400 millimetres, depending on exactly where Tropical Cyclone Alfred does cross. With the
02:21potential for heavy rainfall, there are a number of flood watches current across both Queensland
02:25and northern New South Wales. This is for the potential for widespread moderate to major
02:30flooding, particularly from Thursday night, and this could impact major population centres across
02:35major rivers. Finally, there is also a coastal hazards warning that extends all the way from
02:40Garry, Fraser Island, and down towards Forster on the mid-north coast. We are seeing damaging
02:45surf push onto the coast, leading to significant coastal erosion, as well as abnormally high tides,
02:50and as Tropical Cyclone Alfred moves even closer to the coast, these will both be exacerbated and
02:54we will see even more significant coastal erosion, particularly as a storm tide moves onto the coast
02:59closer towards that coastal crossing. Next, let's look at what we've seen so far today.
03:05Tropical Cyclone Alfred is spinning off the coast as you can see in this satellite imagery,
03:08and it has developed a little bit more of a symmetrical shape over that warm water off the
03:12coast of Brisbane. Today we have seen rainfall totals in excess of 50 millimetres for some parts.
03:17There's also very strong winds in excess of 100 kilometres an hour at Cape Byron,
03:21and we're also seeing those winds increasing across southeastern parts of Queensland.
03:26Let's take a closer look now at what we can expect closer to landfall,
03:29and these are looking at the winds at around 1500 metres above the surface. We can see here the
03:34centre of the cyclone, and there's very strong winds wrapping in a clockwise fashion around the
03:38Tropical Cyclone. As the system draws closer to the coast, we'll start to see those damaging to
03:42destructive winds push onto the coast, particularly around the Gold Coast and the northern parts of
03:46New South Wales. Thursday night is when we start to see the worst of those winds coming through,
03:51but importantly, as we get closer towards that crossing, we will see a period of calmer winds
03:56right in the centre of the cyclone. During this time, it will be very dangerous to go outside,
04:00because as the system does move further away, we will see those winds coming from the opposite
04:04direction very, very quickly. So we'll see that again, we'll see it pushing through there,
04:08with the centre of the cyclone being quite calm, and there's stronger winds coming through from
04:12the opposite direction, which can cause very dangerous conditions. In terms of rainfall,
04:17rain will really start to build during Wednesday night and Thursday, as those showers push onto
04:21the coast, and that will mean the ground will become quite wet and ready for that flooding to
04:26come through. The heaviest of the rainfall will come through as the cyclone crosses the coast.
04:30As you can see here, the heaviest rainfall is expected on the southern flank of the Tropical
04:34Cyclone. Rainfall totals will be very high on the southern flank of that system, and looking
04:39out to Saturday morning, we can expect to see widespread rainfall totals in excess of 100
04:43millimetres all the way from the Sunshine Coast and down towards the Mid-North Coast. But around
04:47the Gold Coast and the southern areas of that crossing, we may see those totals reach in excess
04:52of 400 to 800 millimetres, with higher isolated falls likely. So as Tropical Cyclone Alfred
04:59approaches the coast tonight and over the next few days, it is important that you have the latest
05:03information from the Bureau. You can get that from the website or the BOM Weather app, follow us on
05:07social media, and of course, follow all advice from your local emergency services.