Stock Market Prediction: शेयर बाजार में लगातार बिकवाली से हलचल मच गई है. मौजूदा रिकवरी के बावजूद सेंटीमेंट गिरावट का बना हुआ है. किसी मजबूत ट्रिगर्स के ना होने से आगे भी तेजी की कम ही उम्मीद है. इससे पहले फरवरी में Sensex, Nifty 50 इंडेक्स 5-6% तक फिसल चुके हैं. पिछले साल सितंबर में रिकॉर्ड हाई बनने के बाद लगातार बिकवाली देखने को मिल रही. फॉरेन इनवेस्टर्स (FIIs) की लगातार बिकवाली से दबाव है. हमने ब्रोकिंग फर्म Motilal Oswal Financial Services की Research-VP Sneha Poddar से Exclusive बातचीत की. उनसे बातचीत में Market Outlook, ट्रिगर्स समेत Top Stock Picks पर चर्चा हुई.
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#sharemarket #sharemarketcrash #sharemarkettoday #sharemarketnews #sharemarketlive #sharemarkettomorrow #stockmarket #stockstobuy #sensex #nifty50 #nifty50tomorrowprediction #beststockstobuynow
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NewsTranscript
00:00Namaskar, my name is Digvijay Singh. Welcome to Good Returns. Today we will talk about our focus on the stock market.
00:07We are talking about the market because we are seeing a lot of corrections.
00:10Since September, when we saw the market record high, we have been seeing a lot of corrections.
00:17High valuation, tariff, these are all triggers. We will understand them.
00:21Where is the opportunity to invest in this decline? Which stocks are getting attractive valuation?
00:27Which sectors are in focus? What are the triggers ahead?
00:31The financial year is going to start from April. What is the market outlook in that?
00:37We will talk about that. With us is the Research VP of Motilal Oswal Financial Services, Sneha Poddar.
00:43Ma'am, welcome to our show.
00:46Thank you very much, Mr. Digvijay, for inviting me. It feels good to be with you.
00:53What is happening in the market right now? Is there only a tariff impact?
01:02Or is there any other trigger?
01:04Mr. Digvijay, the corrections in the market have been going on for the last 4-5 months.
01:11The slowdown in high valuations and earnings was due to some factors.
01:20The macro factors were also feeling a little tired.
01:25The correction started with these factors.
01:30Trump started the tariff war.
01:34Before that, Trump started passing some statements after the election.
01:42This gave an idea that there could be a result in the trade war.
01:49In anticipation of this, the market was continuously in a correction mode.
01:56The FIS was not getting comfort due to high valuations and earnings.
02:01The dollar index was also going high.
02:04The continuous outflow of the FIS and the continuous fear were the reasons for the correction in the market.
02:15In today's time, the valuation on the domestic front has reached its fair level.
02:24Especially in large caps.
02:26In mid-cap and small-cap, there is still a little premium valuation.
02:30So, there are chances that we can witness more corrections.
02:34There are definitely some pockets where there are opportunities.
02:37But in mid-cap and small-cap, there is still no volatility.
02:43So, there is comfort in large caps from the valuation front.
02:46But in earnings, we can still see a slowdown in some quarters.
02:52If we look at the overall trend, there is a slowdown in domestic consumption which will recover at a gradual pace.
03:01Plus, the global uncertainty that has been created due to the tariffs.
03:05So, it is very difficult to ascertain what impact it will have.
03:11So, the coming time will tell us about the impact of the tariffs on India and other countries.
03:18So, we can make a concrete call on earnings to see how tight the earnings recover from here.
03:25So, the correction that we are seeing right now, if we talk about February,
03:29the main index, the S&P, there is a slowdown of 5-6%.
03:34If I look at it from the perspective of March,
03:37So, what level are you looking at?
03:39You are saying that it is difficult to say anything about the tariffs.
03:42Still, if you have to look at Nifty or Sensex at some level,
03:45when the financial year ends in March,
03:48what level are you looking at, ma'am?
03:50Nifty, it is possible that there will be a bounce back from here.
03:55We have already seen a little bounce today.
03:58And there is hope for a little more bounce.
04:01Because somewhere people have this hope that Canada, Mexico, China are imposing retaliatory tariffs on the US.
04:11So, it is possible that the US provides them some relief in terms of tariff hike.
04:16So, if this relief comes, then this relief rally will continue for some time.
04:22But towards the end of March, again, we can see that the market may come down a little.
04:29Because the tariffs that are going to be announced in India,
04:33we will get clarity till 2nd April that what tariffs are going to be imposed in India.
04:39So, nearer to the end of March, we can probably see that volatility again.
04:45But in the meantime, there are high hopes that there can be a little short-term recovery in the market.
04:51There is a news in the market that when the sentiment is bad, people make different targets for Nifty.
04:59No analyst has said this.
05:01But the news is that Nifty can slip to the level of 18-20,000.
05:08What is your opinion on this? Can Nifty come to this level?
05:12See, when the sentiment is bad and the levels start dropping,
05:18then it becomes a very bearish environment and it is very natural to get pessimistic in that environment.
05:24But if we evaluate on the basis of fair valuation,
05:28then on the basis of that, our guess is that Nifty may be 21,800 or 21,300 max on the lower side.
05:38In that case, the markets should stabilize.
05:42Because in sharp downfalls, Nifty's P's become a fair value at that level.
05:50You can catch the level of 21,300.
05:53But beyond that, if something worse comes, then you can expect beyond that.
06:00Otherwise, at the levels of 21,300 or 21,800, the market should stabilize somewhere in between.
06:06Yes, so this is the current level.
06:09But the biggest trigger for correction is the selling of FIIs.
06:13What do you think, when we enter the new financial year, is there any trigger?
06:18What do you think, based on the valuation concern, how long will FIIs become net buyers?
06:24Bikwali is going on continuously.
06:26In this year, in just 2 months, they have sold more than 1 lakh crores.
06:32It is very difficult to say when FIIs will become net buyers.
06:37Because there are multiple global factors involved in this.
06:40In the future, will the interest rate be cut or not?
06:43In which countries does Trump impose tariffs?
06:48It is also a matter of imposing tariffs on Europe.
06:50And there are other emerging markets like India.
06:54So, what will be the repercussions of all this?
06:57That will decide how long FIIs will stay away from the emerging markets.
07:02And as I said, domestically, in terms of earnings, the sentiment is not very positive.
07:12It is possible that these earnings will pick up very gradually.
07:17We can say that from the second half of FY2026, FIIs may start returning.
07:26Because then the earnings will stabilize and come in a recovery mode.
07:31And by that time, there will be a lot of comfort in the valuation.
07:35And things will be very clarified on the global level.
07:39So, by that time, we can expect that FIIs may start their entry again.
07:45Another veteran investor has said that the capital gain tax that has been increased by the government
07:57is also having an impact on FIIs.
08:00So, what is your take on this?
08:02Is it necessary to raise this question that the increase in capital gain tax has had an impact on FIIs?
08:11Capital gain tax has not been increased for the first time.
08:16Capital gain tax has been increased in history.
08:19We definitely see its short-term impact.
08:22But it will not have such a long-term impact.
08:27And this buzz has been in the market for a long time that capital gain tax can increase.
08:32So, somewhere it was a factor.
08:35I don't think it has an important role.
08:38What is more important for FIIs is the level of the US dollar.
08:46What will be the interest rate scenario in the US?
08:48Because it will ultimately decide which market is lucrative.
08:52US market or Indian market.
08:54So, there are only a few days left for the start of the new financial year.
08:58In the new financial year, where do you see Sensex and Nifty?
09:06And what will be the big events that will be seen by the market?
09:11If we talk about the levels in FII 26,
09:16the market will stabilize in 2-3 months.
09:23And after that, we may witness a time correction.
09:27Because earnings will not be very supportive.
09:30So, the recovery in earnings from the second half will obviously be a trigger point.
09:38So, if we talk about the market levels,
09:41we can expect to bounce back to 24,000 or 25,000 levels.
09:49Preaching the previous high is a little difficult in FII 26.
09:56So, let's hope for the best.
09:59But the key events will be Trump's tariff policy.
10:06And how much it will escalate in the trade war will be an important factor.
10:11Plus, the current geopolitical situation on a global level.
10:15So, it is very important to have stability there.
10:20A positive point for India is that due to geopolitical issues,
10:26oil prices have started to fall.
10:30Because India is a net importer,
10:34lower oil prices are definitely beneficial for us.
10:39So, it will help to lower the raw material prices of companies.
10:46But there are many other factors involved.
10:49Plus, the second important factor is that
10:52does RBI take more rate cuts or not?
10:57Will it follow the steps of the US and halt here?
11:01Or will it take more initiatives?
11:03So, there are multiple factors involved.
11:06And the current situation is very volatile.
11:08And it is very difficult to take a call.
11:10But the markets should recover after another fall.
11:15And it will try to reach its previous high.
11:19It depends on how fast the earnings will recover.
11:23So, the market has recovered a lot.
11:26And it looks like there will be a recovery in the future.
11:29But there is a high possibility that the correction will continue.
11:32If I talk about investment in this correction,
11:34in which sector is the opportunity being created?
11:37Usually, it is believed that when the market falls,
11:40one should invest and take advantage of it in the long term.
11:43So, which sector do you focus on?
11:46IT, banking, financial, auto?
11:49Which sector do you focus on?
11:51Sir, if you have noticed in the budget,
11:55the high focus of the government is on consumption revival.
11:59So, we hope that the consumer discretionary segment
12:05will gradually start reviving from here.
12:08Recovery has already reached the rural level.
12:11Now, the urban slowdown,
12:14we should gradually see a recovery from Q1 to Q2.
12:19So, the discretionary sectors like retail, jewellery segment,
12:24travel industry, auto,
12:27we can see a recovery in these sectors.
12:31Because if the consumers get extra income,
12:34their purchasing power will increase.
12:38Like higher spending areas,
12:41where there are discretionary items,
12:43the money can flow there.
12:45Secondly, if we talk about investment,
12:48in the BFSI sector,
12:50both the NBFCs as well as the banking sector,
12:53the valuations are very comfortable there.
12:55Especially in the NBFCs, the valuations are very comfortable.
12:58And post RBI rate cut,
13:01their credit costs are being picked out here.
13:05So, from here, a very good investment is being made for the NBFC sector.
13:10Banking is also comfortable in terms of valuations.
13:13And if we see,
13:14we have seen a little moderation in the credit pickup,
13:19but the asset quality is very good for both the private and public sector banks.
13:24So, the banking and NBFC valuation perspective is very comfortable.
13:28Consumer discretionary, as I said,
13:30a pickup is expected after a long period of time.
13:34So, that will definitely help the sector.
13:36So, give us a stock pick in this line.
13:38So that our viewers can see,
13:40in terms of long term and short term,
13:42if you can recommend a stock pick.
13:45For short term, I will recommend Varun Beverages.
13:49In the coming time,
13:51the summer season has almost started.
13:53In some states,
13:57Feb was comparatively hotter compared to many previous years.
14:02So, the early onset of summer has started.
14:05So, the volumes are still very strong for these companies.
14:09Plus, we saw a sharp correction in Varun Beverages.
14:14Because when Reliance announced Capacola,
14:16there was a lot of fear of competition.
14:18But we believe that the market is very wide
14:21and there is a lot of scope for different players to survive in it.
14:25So, this will help the overall market to grow.
14:30Competition is not a big factor.
14:32And because the summer season is coming,
14:34the volume will increase.
14:35Plus, it is expanding very fast in the Africa market.
14:39And the market is picking up very well.
14:41So, keeping these factors in mind,
14:44I will recommend BBL.
14:46My second pick will be ICICI Bank.
14:49ICICI Bank consistently delivered very good results
14:53in the market.
14:55Plus, its asset quality is always increasing.
14:59And it is gradually moving towards a high-yielding portfolio
15:04with high margins.
15:06So, the focus is more on these products.
15:09Plus, we saw good growth across the product lines.
15:13So, from a long-term perspective,
15:15I would recommend ICICI Bank.
15:17Thank you very much.
15:18You took the time to talk to us.
15:21And gave valuable advice to our viewers.
15:23And gave a stock pick.
15:24And there is no need to worry in this market.
15:27We need to stay strong and have a strong strategy.
15:30Thank you, Sneha, for your time.