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00:00And for more on yesterday's EU defence summit, I can bring in Viljana ÄŒakarova, who is the
00:05founder of the geopolitical consultancy FACE.
00:08Good morning, Viljana, and thank you for joining us.
00:11What is your takeaway from this announcement of an increase in defence spending by EU countries?
00:18Good morning and thank you for the invitation.
00:20This is a very important step, but a step that we have expected since the last three
00:26years.
00:27In fact, it was the step in the back kind of action by the US that unleashed these important
00:35steps towards defence.
00:39And in fact, we've needed this already since the beginning of the war in 2022.
00:46What is expected, first and foremost, is important for defence loans, for trade projects.
00:52We know that most of the European member states need to coordinate on defence projects.
00:58Second important step and signal is in terms of suspending certain budgetary constraints
01:04so that member states can increase the defence budgets.
01:07This is good for NATO, but it's also good for the European strategic autonomy towards
01:14filling the gaps, as we've heard from the previous session.
01:19And third important point is to show us a signal towards the ability to relocate actually
01:25existing financial means, for instance, from cohesion funds.
01:30This is about the rest of the 650 billion over the next four or five years.
01:36So 150 billion in loans, 650 billion in terms of, you know, general European Union funds.
01:46Now, from a strategic point of view, and perhaps more specifically, Ukraine, is this going
01:51to be enough or do you see more being needed to do?
01:55So we need to differentiate because what we saw, of course, at the last council meeting,
02:04this was two different tracks.
02:06The one being the sustainable support for Ukraine, because now the European Union members
02:12have to step in and fill the gaps left by the US, right?
02:17So here it is about the military aid for Ukraine.
02:22This is the one track.
02:23And the second track is actually linked to the missing defence capabilities within the
02:29European Union member states, which are, most of them are also European NATO members.
02:35So when it comes to Ukraine, of course, the most important part is about strengthening
02:41Ukraine's defence capabilities.
02:43Here we have this new motto, remember, previously it was whatever it takes, as long as it takes.
02:49Now it is about achieving peace through strength.
02:53That means to help Ukraine be positioned in the most, let's say, in the most advantageous
03:01position in terms of the negotiations, the upcoming negotiations.
03:05And here the discussions are about providing around 30, 32, 32 billion for military aid
03:17to Ukraine.
03:18So, of course, it is a significant step towards, you know, helping Ukraine.
03:24But the open question remains, of course, about how sustainable this is, because you
03:28remember that from previous initiatives, a commitment, especially when it comes to munition
03:35and, you know, weapon systems, they have always been too slow and too undecisive.
03:42Now, like many European leaders, Ursula von der Leyen yesterday was careful not to criticise
03:47Donald Trump head on.
03:49Instead, she was almost thanking him for giving European countries this impetus to increase
03:54defence spending.
03:56What would you draw from this?
03:59We have to be ruthlessly pragmatic about our relationship with the United States, first
04:05and foremost, and secondly, ruthlessly pragmatic about the vastly changing global order.
04:13This is not a time for emotions.
04:15It is not time to feel outraged.
04:18It is time for actions.
04:21What I mean by that is that, first and foremost, now, let's say, going U-turn, like 180 degree
04:30U-turn in the relationship with the United States will not help us further in our ambitions
04:37towards, let's say, European security and defence on the one hand, and support for Ukraine
04:44on the other.
04:45So, we have to try to find the niches and the gaps.
04:49And we know for a fact what Trump demands.
04:51In fact, first and foremost, he wants to withdraw the US presence from the old continent.
04:58We've known that for a fact, and now we act surprised.
05:02Second important point is he doesn't want American troops and American presence in Ukraine
05:08when it comes to military, of course.
05:10So again, here, we need to fill these gaps.
05:13We need to start doing things not only for the sake of Ukraine, but for the sake of our
05:19own security.
05:20We need to become a credible geopolitical actor that is able and willing to secure the
05:28own borders, but also the direct vicinity in the east and in the south.
05:34These are our tasks.
05:35And we do not need to achieve these tasks in a conflict with this US administration.
05:42We have to find these kind of points of intersection, of course, ideologically.
05:49To a certain extent, politically, we might not be on the same page.
05:53Okay, but still, in terms of security and defence, we can find a lot of points of intersection.
05:59And let's not forget that even the relationship with China, if we look at our European understanding
06:06of it, it's not just about, you know, finding ways how to tackle China's, you know, growing
06:12to economic portfolio, but it's also about how to tackle China as a systemic rival.
06:16So here, once again, we need to be more pragmatic on this upcoming, you know, security challenge
06:23that means China and Russia, not just Russia or not just China.
06:29And here I think we can find avenues for cooperation.
06:32Now, one thing that has been absent from coverage is the popular reaction in Europe
06:37to this rise in defence spending.
06:38Of course, we do know there are certain EU states, such as Viktor Orban's Hungary and
06:44to a lesser extent, Robert Fitzel's Slovakia, that are perhaps a little bit more dissenting.
06:50But what about people themselves?
06:52Do you foresee any opposition among citizens of European countries to a rise in defence
06:57spending or potentially a reintroduction of national service in some countries, as
07:03has been suggested?
07:06I do foresee, indeed, populist, you know, discontent and in general a discontent coming
07:15from European citizens, first and foremost, for obvious reasons.
07:19And that is the reason that political leadership for the last few years has not prepared the
07:25citizens for what was about to come, namely that we all here on the old continent were
07:32also in a kind of a non-conventional warfare, meaning, of course, that Russia launched a
07:38non-conventional war on the European security order.
07:42So first, lack of preparedness.
07:44Second important point is actually the point of perception.
07:49If you take a look at polls in some of our member states, it's devastating because European
07:56citizens are not ready or willing to actually participate in any, let's say, a war in terms
08:03of defending their own countries.
08:05So perception is also something that we need to change.
08:10And third important point, of course, is linked to the really grim economic picture in most
08:17of the European member states.
08:19Now, first and foremost, it's about strategic communication to explain that it is not about
08:25new money. It is actually about existing money that will have to be relocated.
08:29Second important point is to convey the message that security comes first because nothing
08:35else, you know, none of the other ambitious goals can be achieved if there is no security.
08:40Third important point here, I think, is to also strategically communicate to the population
08:47that, you know, the welfare system from the last 30 years, in fact, is no longer sustainable.
08:56But it's not just because of the systemic risk being the war, but also because of the
09:02demographics, because of all the other conditions that are no longer in place.
09:06So this article by Financial Times that we are moving from war, you know, from welfare
09:12towards warfare systems is a reality that has been in place, but it was, you know,
09:20politically incorrect to publicly discuss it.
09:23So now we are already there.
09:25The new normal is what we are facing right now.
09:30And it's not just Trump and the U.S.
09:32administration. It's actually a new great powers politics.
09:36And here the European Union with the member states have to become a geopolitical actor
09:42because otherwise we will become the geopolitical backyard of the global affairs.
09:46And this will affect our social welfare system, our economies, because we will be, you
09:52know, on the losing side of global events.
09:55Thank you very much for that, Velina Chakarova, who's the founder of the Geopolitical
09:59Consultancy FACE.