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00:00New ceasefire talks on Ukraine are expected to take place this week in Saudi Arabia.
00:05The U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will
00:10both be there.
00:11Zelensky is set to meet the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman today ahead of those talks on ending
00:16the war with Russia.
00:18Speaking earlier this Monday, Ukraine's president said Russia is, quote, the only reason there
00:22is currently no peace in Ukraine.
00:25We're going to talk a bit more about these expected talks now with Ukraine expert Hannah
00:29Shalest, who joins me now live.
00:31Hannah, first of all, the question everyone's asking themselves, how bad is the damage for
00:35Ukraine after that explosive Oval Office meeting with Donald Trump on February 28th?
00:42Let's be honest, the shortage of the ammunition and the supply to Ukraine happened earlier.
00:47De facto for the last months, we have the postponing of a lot of the military support,
00:52especially crucial for the air defense of Ukraine.
00:55And at the same time, we have the intensification of the Russian attacks against the energy
01:00infrastructure and critical civilian infrastructure in Ukraine.
01:04Each night it is approximately 200 drones plus missiles, and they really prepare for
01:10the negotiations, but not in the way how the peaceful negotiations can happen.
01:15That's why the meeting in the Oval Office was so important.
01:19But however, definitely politically it had the significant damage for the U.S.-Ukraine
01:24relations.
01:25And at the same time, the better, I would say, even increase in the positive and important
01:31dialogue between Ukraine and our European partners.
01:34Right.
01:35I mean, the question now is, can this truly be in any way a fair and balanced negotiation
01:41for Ukraine?
01:42Or is Ukraine already the losing party going into these talks as they stand?
01:47You know, I would say that somewhere in the end of December, we were in the stronger position
01:52when even the negotiations would start.
01:54Now we are definitely not in the best position to start these negotiations.
01:59And the reason is very simple, because the United States that we saw as the mediator,
02:04who should be at least neutral to both sides, de facto they are demanding a lot of the concessions
02:11from Ukraine without any demands towards Russia.
02:15But we hear, at least in the public space, that they would like Ukraine to reject some
02:20parts of our territory or to reject the NATO membership for Ukraine.
02:25All of these are demands of the Russian Federation.
02:27So it is not something new that the United States is proposing as the possible compromise.
02:32But they just took the playbook of the Kremlin back in December 2021, even with the increased
02:40demands from Moscow, and now propose it as the possible concessions from Ukraine as the
02:45goodwill to start negotiations.
02:47Indeed.
02:48And the other thing is, is at the moment it seems like Donald Trump has no leverage at
02:52all when it comes to Vladimir Putin.
02:54I mean, again, what would be keeping Vladimir Putin from just continuing what he's doing
02:58right now in Ukraine?
02:59Nothing.
03:00No, there are leverages.
03:03The question is that we don't see any desire to use these leverages because there is some
03:08naivety in Washington now that Putin really would like to have some peace.
03:12When you would like to have some peace, you are not behaving like this.
03:17So first of all, we are speaking about sanctions, like energy sanctions.
03:21They are still not implemented in full.
03:23There are a big room for maneuver, and that is where the United States has the important
03:29role.
03:30Then we are speaking about the Russian frozen assets that are currently in many countries
03:34are saved in the U.S. dollars.
03:36So again, that is in the hands of the United States to work with these.
03:40Then we are speaking about the supply to Ukraine of the different types of the ammunition and
03:46the possibility for Ukraine to shoot, permission for Ukraine to shoot the Russian territory.
03:53That what can keep a little bit calmer the Russian president, for sure, because they
03:59would understand that they can have the response to any of their actions.
04:03NATO membership, all those statements that NATO membership is not an option for Ukraine
04:08suddenly from Washington is not what gives the positive mood.
04:13But as soon as you say that, okay, you don't want to stop fighting, Ukraine deserve a protection
04:19and to be in the family of the democratic strong nations, NATO membership is on the
04:24table.
04:25Again, that is the bargaining chip from which you can start a dialogue.
04:29And Hannah, just to wrap up, I mean, how can any of this negotiation move forward without
04:32the participation of the European Union, who have not been invited to these talks?
04:38That is probably the biggest nonsense.
04:39And that's where Ukraine and Ukrainian leadership constantly saying that the real peace talk
04:43should be with the participation of the different European countries, if not the whole European
04:49Union, because they are providing now even bigger support to Ukraine than the United
04:54States.
04:55So here the only explanation is that in Riyadh we would have not the peace talks, but the
05:03Russian-U.S. negotiations, because we have our agenda as well.
05:07And we know that the United Kingdom is consulting Ukraine in this way.
05:11But when the peace negotiations would happen, that's where the European Union would join
05:16the United Kingdom.
05:17And Ukraine is also insisting on Turkish participation, because they keep a serious responsibility
05:22for the Black Sea security.
05:25Hannah, thank you for sharing your expertise with us.
05:27Hannah Scheless, they're speaking to me live.