八点最热报 | 美国总统特朗普前天对美国经济是否会衰退提问的不确定性回答，率先反应在美国自己的股市上面，跟着也扩散到全球股市，而特朗普这场关税豪赌，到底又有怎样的如意算盘呢？一切真得能够如他所愿吗？一位华尔街资深策略师早前就分析指出，特朗普是借着挑起贸易战，来达到一箭三雕的目的。（主播：萧慧敏）
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00:31He said that the Trump administration needs to direct a big decline
00:35to slow down the U.S. economy and slow down inflation
00:38so that it can force the U.S. Federal Reserve to decline.
00:42In this way, the U.S. dollar will also significantly depreciate.
00:44And once these three conditions are in place,
00:46it will be beneficial for Trump to implement the economic plan for the next stage.
00:50But will the reality really be as Trump wishes?
00:52Is this good bet the U.S. life-saving straw
00:55or the last straw of the self-destructive economy?
00:58Economists in both interviews believe that
01:00the ideal is perfect, but the reality is old-fashioned.
01:03Trump's one-trick-three-trials may eventually evolve into a one-trick-three-failure.
01:09Trump has been pressuring the Fed
01:12to use a decline in interest rates to reduce financing costs
01:15and stimulate corporate investment in exchange for manufacturing to return to the United States.
01:19However, Zhong Zhiqiang, director of Laman University's Department of Economics,
01:22believes that a decline in interest rates may lead to a depreciation of the U.S. dollar,
01:26and even further increase inflation,
01:28leading to a more serious economic crisis in the United States.
01:31Trump's one-trick-three-trials may eventually evolve into a one-trick-three-failure,
01:35and the U.S. economy will have a stronger collapse after a short-term prosperity.
01:40Professor Lin Fuyan, professor of economics at Peking University, pointed out that
01:42Trump's one-trick-three-trials
01:44ultimately aimed to force manufacturing to return to the United States
01:48and make the U.S. great again.
01:49But the reality is that
01:51U.S. labor costs are too high,
01:53and the U.S. Congress is powerful.
01:55Law and environmental regulation are strict,
01:57and corporate operating costs are far above those of overseas competitors.
02:00Even if the funding provided by Jiangxi is supported,
02:03it will not be able to make up for the high cost of the U.S. manufacturing industry,
02:07and the return-to-the-U.S. plan will be completely bankrupt.
02:10Zhong Zhiqiang believes that
02:11Trump's tariff war and economic strategy
02:13seem to want to revive the U.S. economy,
02:17but in fact, this approach is more like a loss without profit.
02:21He described that the U.S. economy has been sick for more than 10 years,
02:24and now it has suddenly changed dramatically.
02:26It's like letting a patient who has been in a coma for a long time
02:28recover his health in an instant and run again.
02:31This idea is too idealistic and unrealistic.
02:36There is a possibility,
02:38but his calculation is too beautiful.
02:41Or we can say that
02:43he is choosing the unfavorable situation.
02:46It is very difficult to revive the U.S. economy
02:49because of its current economic situation.
02:52The U.S. is like a patient who has been sick for more than 10 years
02:56who has been in a coma for more than 10 years.
02:58It is impossible to revive the U.S. economy
03:00and let it go like a normal person.
03:04When the U.S. economy is in a bad situation,
03:06the income is high,
03:07but if Jiangxi succeeds,
03:09some of the foreign industries will go back to the U.S.,
03:13so the U.S. economy will gradually improve.
03:15Then the U.S. will start to master
03:17advanced industrial technologies.
03:20It's not that easy to revive the U.S. economy again.
03:22The U.S. economy is too weak.
03:23The U.S. needs to use warm stocks instead of hot stocks
03:26to revive the U.S. economy.
03:28To put it simply,
03:30the U.S. manufacturing industry
03:32is not ready to accept the return of the manufacturing industry.
03:36It's like when I went to the Golden Horse Race and saw a beautiful flower,
03:40I bought it and found that
03:42a few weeks later, it was gone.
03:44Why?
03:45Because there was no environment for it to grow.
03:48Zhou Zhiqiang, director of the Raman University Economy Department,
03:50and Professor Ling Fuyan, professor of the Northern University Economy Department,
03:52both believe that
03:53the so-called one-stop deal looks perfect,
03:55but in practice, it may be a one-stop deal.
03:58Ling Fuyan believes that
03:59Trump wants the U.S. Federal Reserve to go down.
04:01The purpose is to reduce the cost of financing
04:03and establish good enterprise investment,
04:05thereby attracting the manufacturing industry to return to the U.S.
04:07However, the key is whether the manufacturing industry
04:10is really willing to return to the U.S.
04:13However, the reality is that
04:14the U.S. labor cost is high,
04:16the U.S. Congress is powerful,
04:17the laws and environmental regulations are strict,
04:19and enterprise operating costs are much higher than overseas.
04:22Therefore, even if the U.S. reduces the cost of financing,
04:24it may not be able to make up
04:26for the high cost of the U.S. manufacturing industry.
04:28The prospect of the manufacturing industry's return to the U.S. is not certain.
04:31Trump's strategy may just be an idealized idea,
04:34not a feasible solution.
04:38The U.S. labor cost is too high,
04:40so everyone is observing.
04:42When the labor cost is high,
04:44you can't compete with other countries.
04:46Then there is China waiting to compete with you.
04:49If you are not careful,
04:51you will lose the overall advantage.
04:53Your market will be in the hands of Chinese merchants.
04:56So everyone is watching very carefully.
04:59The strongest man in China thinks that
05:01because Trump wants to pass the U.S. federal reserve,
05:04to create economic turbulence,
05:06and force the U.S. Federal Reserve to lower interest rates,
05:09it may stimulate economic growth in the short term.
05:12But this is actually a kind of rescue.
05:15Lowering interest rates may lead to U.S. depreciation,
05:18capital outflow, and stimulate consumption.
05:21Further increasing inflation
05:23will only lead to a vicious cycle in the economy.
05:26If the economy is in a good situation,
05:30lowering interest rates can stimulate the economy.
05:33But you have to look at the economic situation.
05:37The U.S. is now a patient.
05:40If the U.S. lowers interest rates,
05:42it may cause serious illness.
05:45The U.S. can lower interest rates.
05:47But if the U.S. lowers interest rates,
05:49it may lead to a rebound in inflation.
05:51The biggest problem in the U.S. is inflation.
05:53Inflation started 10 to 20 years ago.
05:56When the U.S. started its QE policy,
05:59inflation was already there.
06:01So if the U.S. lowers interest rates,
06:03first, international funds may flow out of the market,
06:05and U.S. dollars may depreciate.
06:07Second, if the U.S. lowers interest rates,
06:09it may stimulate consumer consumption.
06:11If the U.S. stimulates domestic consumption,
06:13it will naturally lead to a rebound in inflation.
06:16If the U.S. lowers interest rates,
06:18the interest rate will definitely rise.
06:21So this is a short-term,
06:24a long-term initiative.
06:27Zhong also believes that
06:28instead of hoping for a three-way trade,
06:30Trump's current tariff war
06:32is more like trying to break the existing rules
06:35and bring down other countries
06:37so that he will not be defeated.
06:39What he may do is
06:40to break the entire system,
06:42the entire rules,
06:44and to bring down all the developing countries,
06:46other countries.
06:49If your economy is in trouble,
06:50then see who rises the fastest.
06:52This is one of the possibilities.
06:54To break you down,
06:55to bring you all down.
06:57Let's do it together.
06:58So this is possible.
07:00Just buy with tariffs.
07:02But Lin Fuyan believes
07:03that Trump's current economic policies
07:05are too radical.
07:06Whether it's a domestic reform
07:07or an international trade war,
07:09it's like a major surgery.
07:11The risk is very high.
07:12Once misjudged,
07:13it may not only not be able to restore
07:15the dominant position of the U.S. economy,
07:17but it will accelerate the U.S. own decline
07:19so that its decades,
07:20even hundreds of years of economic advantage
07:23will be destroyed.
07:24So both domestically and internationally,
07:27the U.S. economy is declining.
07:29So can the U.S. bear it?
07:31So some people say
07:32it's possible that the U.S. economy
07:34has accelerated its decline.
07:37So from the first world war
07:40to now,
07:42the foundation that has been built for hundreds of years
07:45will be destroyed by Trump.
07:47He can't fix it.
07:48He really can't fix it.
07:49It's too radical.
07:51His tariffs are too radical.
07:53His domestic reforms are also too radical.
07:55It's all very fast.
07:56It's all a major surgery.
08:02Lin Fuyan believes
08:03that Trump's radical policies
08:04are equivalent to a dangerous major surgery
08:07trying to restore the status of the U.S. economy
08:09through extreme means.
08:11However, once misjudged,
08:12the result may be the opposite.
08:14When allies no longer trust,
08:15the U.S. manufacturing industry is unwilling to return,
08:17and even the global capital market
08:18is in panic due to the uncertainty of the policy.
08:22This not only can't strengthen the U.S. economy,
08:24but it may also destroy the advantages it has accumulated over decades
08:27once it accelerates its decline.