What happens if US soldiers withdraw from Europe, especially from the Baltic countries? And how safe are those Baltic states, given that they all neighbor Russia? DW put these and other questions to Estonia's President Alar Karis.
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00What happens if U.S. soldiers withdraw from Europe, especially from the Baltic countries?
00:05And just how safe are those Baltic states, given that they all
00:09neighbor Russia? I asked the President of Estonia this and more here in his office in Tallinn.
00:16Ala Karis, President of Estonia, thank you for taking the time for DW.
00:20Let's start with the impact of Donald Trump's second presidency. What did you think when it
00:26became clear that he would win the U.S. election again?
00:31That's a choice of American people. That was my first impression. And of course,
00:36I have seen President Trump also in the first presidency. So, of course,
00:41second presidency is always different. So, we didn't know what to expect. And now it's
00:47more than 60 days being a president and so many things have happened. And we also get some mixed
00:54feelings and also mixed ideas coming from our side of the Atlantic Ocean.
01:02Mixed feelings in what way?
01:04I mean, things happen very fast. And that's probably the main issue also here in Europe
01:12and in Estonia. But so many things are happening at the same time. And you wake up in the morning
01:17and there's another news and you start thinking that it's comparable to the news what was
01:23yesterday and so forth. But as I said, we should stay calm and keep our eyes open and make sure
01:32that anything is going to happen above our heads.
01:37Since regaining independence from the Soviet Union in the 1990s,
01:41Estonia has done everything in its power to move away from Russia and to move closer to the West.
01:49You have become a member of the EU and NATO. Now Donald Trump is talking positively about Russia
01:57and wants to change NATO's role in Europe. What do you think about this?
02:04To be honest, I don't think it's going to happen. I mean, it's also important for the US to stay in
02:10Europe. And again, I mean, some saying what they say from our side of the Atlantic is that they are
02:18going to move away from certain regions, from Europe. At the same time, President Trump said
02:25that also they are going to move from Germany to the eastern part of Europe. But nothing really
02:32had happened. And I guess NATO will stay here in Europe. And from Europe's perspective, it's also
02:39important. It's an important alliance and we should, of course, put more resources on defence.
02:45But still, I think we are not able to build up our own defence system in Europe. So it's in
02:52collaboration, in alliance with NATO.
02:55But there are reports that the US wants to pull its soldiers out of the Baltic countries.
03:02Aren't you afraid about your security here in Estonia?
03:06Well, we are not afraid. We are not afraid of anything. But of course, we should talk to NATO,
03:14have been talking also to NATO officials here in Europe. So they don't see that NATO is going to
03:22pull out from Europe. So as I said, it's also important to NATO. Of course, what we should do,
03:31put more resources on NATO, because most of the money comes from the US.
03:37That's obviously not acceptable for the American people.
03:41OK, we are talking about the plans or ideas. But the fact is that Donald Trump
03:46already has stopped military aid to Ukraine. How do you feel about this?
03:52It's not good for Ukraine, obviously. It's not only stopping this military aid, but also it's
04:01for the morale of Ukrainian people. That's why it's important that Europe
04:06will continue to support Ukraine as much as possible.
04:10How about the morale of the Estonian people?
04:13Of course, as I said, we keep our eyes open because Estonia is putting more than 3%
04:20on defence and we are planning to increase this percentage. Although this percentage is not
04:25that important as what we are going to do with these resources. And this 5% comes from actually
04:38NATO defence plans. It's not only... And we started to discuss this already last year.
04:44And after the National Security Council we had here in this building, I proposed that we should
04:51put 5% on defence. So it's not that... We got some signal from the other side of the Atlantic Ocean.
04:59I would like to talk about this 5% a little bit later. But also there are reports that
05:04the US administration wants to restrict even NATO's Article 5 on collective security.
05:11What would that mean for Estonia's security if that would happen?
05:15First of all, we are not... We should do everything not to test this Article 5.
05:21That means we have to build up our defence and so forth. But then again, I'm not convinced that
05:29this is going to happen because once when the US went to Afghanistan, we went together.
05:38That means it's not true that the US is afraid that then they need Article 5. Nobody is going
05:46to follow them. So that is an experience already from the past. So Estonia, not only Estonia,
05:52more than 40 different countries are aligned with the US.
05:58You mentioned it. We wake up every morning and see what's happening in the US,
06:03what headline is coming next. Can you rely at all on the US?
06:11There is no other alternative. That means it's important to mend our relations.
06:19First of all, mend relations between Ukraine and the US and Zelensky and President Trump,
06:26and also Europe and the US because it's important and we are strong enough and
06:33we are even stronger together. If you look at the map of the world at the moment,
06:38it's important to collaborate and do things together because otherwise it's
06:44not that nice if you think about the future.
06:48Can you rely on NATO?
06:50Yes, of course.
06:51Let's talk about those 5% you proposed to spend. 5% of GDP on defence instead of the required 2%,
07:00that would mean a record within NATO. Do you think it would make Estonia safer, these 5% of GDP?
07:08What do we do? We just give an example to other nations because for a small country 5% is still a
07:17very small amount of money. I think Europe is thinking already about 3%, although I know that
07:26there are countries who put less than 2% even to defence. But I guess Europe understands it's
07:35important to put more resources on defence and we already see it. Also in Germany,
07:42probably things are going to change as far as if you listen to the new chancellor.
07:50So things are going to happen also in Germany.
07:52Mr President, your neighbour spending on defence and security, Russia,
07:55is expected to make up 40% of the total budget. Are 2% or even 5%
08:04enough in relation to this 40% of the total budget in Russia for military?
08:09I always give this example because before the Second World War we spent a lot, more than 20% on
08:16defence. But the problem at the time was we didn't have friends, allies. Now we are in a different
08:23situation. That's why NATO is extremely important for us and also other friendly countries. That
08:29means you have to put a certain amount of resources on defence as well you need allies
08:34to defend yourself. So as you see, quite recently Finland and Sweden joined also NATO,
08:41although Finland has been militarily very well equipped. But they did realise it's important to
08:46be a member of a defence alliance called NATO. 5% more for tanks and guns means 5% less for
08:54social benefits and, I don't know, medical care and so on. I just talked today with the Prime
09:00Minister and we are going to have a plan in the coming two weeks. But of course, most importantly,
09:06I guess they are taking, first of all, they divided. It's not going to happen next year,
09:115%, divided over years. And secondly, it's probably taking a loan as well. So it's not,
09:20if Estonia can manage to put at this very moment 3% or 3.4%, I mean it's also for bigger countries,
09:29it shouldn't be an obstacle. Could you understand people who are concerned about having less money
09:33in their pocket and because of these more 5% for guns and tanks? I mean Estonian people understand
09:41that it's important to put money on defence. But of course, it's also important to show where this
09:49money goes, goes to. That means to show that it goes to defence rather than somewhere else. And I
09:57do trust our generals who know exactly what we do need. Because if you put more money you get,
10:04there is a temptation to kind of buy more fancy things. And these fancy things are available at
10:11the moment, not probably military equipment, but to actually need in the long run. But the Estonian
10:17economy is not doing very well at the moment. It's getting better. I hope so for you.
10:23What do you think Estonians are willing to give up for their security? Estonian people?
10:32It's a difficult question. I mean, nobody wants to give up anything, but at these difficult times
10:38probably need to think what to, what not to do rather than what to do. And it depends on the
10:48solutions provided by our government. But at this moment, if you even look at the polls,
10:55Estonian people are willing to defend. More than 80% of our population are ready to defend the
11:01country, which is a rather high number together with Finland actually. In other countries in
11:05Europe, the numbers are much, much lower. And that means they also agree to put more
11:10resources on defence. And sacrifice their lives?
11:14I mean, during the war, I mean, we should avoid the war. But if you agree to defend the country,
11:20that means you agree also to sacrifice lives. Would you be in favour of European soldiers being
11:28deployed on the border between Russia and Ukraine as a part or potential part of the peace deal?
11:33I mean, in Ukraine, a number of countries already have decided because Ukraine needs
11:39a certain security when ceasefire or peace agreements are settled. Denmark recently and
11:50some other countries. We have the same discussion back home, but we haven't decided whether to
11:55send or not. But Ukraine needs security after the peace agreement.
12:02So you can't say whether you will be willing to send Estonian soldiers to Ukraine?
12:06Not decided yet, but these discussions are there.
12:10The EU is extremely slow and bureaucratic. Would you like to see more decisiveness,
12:17determination from the EU when the EU is clearly supposed to take the
12:22leadership role in these difficult times?
12:25Yeah, of course. We are 27 members. It makes it difficult. But we have agreed a number of times
12:36and difficult times during the COVID. We managed to find an agreement and probably
12:43now it's the same thing. But we should sit down and not discuss, but to decide. And it's important.
12:50Of course, there are disagreements always. Some countries are not happy. Some countries are less
12:56happy. But we have to find a solution because otherwise, as you said, we are just too slow.
13:02But we can't, how to say it, how should I put it, to abandon democracy because autocratic countries,
13:11they are very decisive and they move very fast. So we have to find a balance.
13:18Back to Estonia. Let's talk about your internal security. Around 22% of the Estonian population
13:26are ethnic Russians. Does that pose a security threat for your country?
13:34Ethnic Russians, this population is rather mixed here. There are ethnic Russians with Estonian
13:39passport, with so-called Krei passport and also Russian citizen. So it's a very mixed.
13:46And even within these sub-populations, the feelings are also different. So at this very
13:52moment, we don't see this as a security threat because even more than 50% of these ethnic Russians
14:01agreed to defend Estonia. So we monitor all the time and try to help them to integrate to
14:10Estonian society. Let's talk about the future. The polarisation of the world seems to be growing.
14:16How united is, from your point of view, Estonian society
14:22in the face of what may soon be a new world order?
14:27It's very difficult to predict the future. But it's based on
14:37the rule of law. And that we have this world and that the United Nations should
14:46do a job much, much better. So a rules-based world is our basis. Of course, I understand
14:53there are already movements in different directions. But this is what we've got.
14:58We talked a lot about Donald Trump. Let's ask a question about Vladimir Putin.
15:03There are politicians in Estonia who are openly on Putin's side, and that despite the fact that
15:10many Estonians might remember the Soviet Union, the occupation. Considering this is history,
15:15how could you explain why Putin has support in Estonia?
15:21It probably depends on the generation. I don't know any politician who is pro-Putin.
15:26Maybe my circle is too small. But anyway, I don't see any politician who is pro-Putin.
15:34But of course, there are older generations who have the same nostalgia like East Germans
15:40towards Russia. We didn't have much, or we basically didn't have anything, but we
15:48are more equal. And people kind of think that it was a good time, which was actually not true.
15:58But this is a minority in Estonian society. And as I said, especially younger,
16:04older generation who watch Russian TV and get this propaganda much, much easier.
16:10With things changing in the United States, the world order, do you see any changes in the society
16:16here in Estonia?
16:17I haven't noticed any changes at this very moment. So these things don't influence that fast. I mean,
16:25you need something else apart from change of a president in the United States.
16:31But I've heard some cases people are buying properties in Italy.
16:36In Spain.
16:36Portugal, Spain in the south and leaving Estonia. Do you understand what is motivating
16:45these people?
16:46Of course, some people are a bit more afraid than others. So they tend to find some
16:52more secure place in Europe. But at the same time, you have to realise
16:59the whole Europe is next to Russia. So we all border Russia. So it's not only Estonia, Finland
17:06and some other countries. It's a whole Europe. So if something is going to happen, I hope not.
17:12So the whole Europe is in trouble. So property in Spain or Italy doesn't help much.
17:18Can you imagine to have good relationships one day with Russia?
17:23Russia remains next to our border and has been there for centuries. We know what to expect.
17:31But of course, neighbour is a neighbour. It doesn't mean always that the neighbour is a friend.
17:36We have a lot of friendly neighbours, Finland, Latvia, Germany and others. So
17:43there are regions in the world where some countries are surrounded by unfriendly neighbours.
17:50So in that sense, we are lucky and we know at this very moment who is our enemy. So let's
17:57hope that Russia is going to change. But history doesn't give much hope, to be honest.
18:04Ala Karis, President of Estonia. Mr. President, thank you for this interview.
18:07It's my pleasure.