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00:00that kill only a five-game slate on this Thursday in Major League Baseball but a
00:04ton of day games in that five-game slate as well let's focus first on Camden
00:09Yards the Orioles and the Red Sox a divisional duel between Boston and
00:14Baltimore and a pretty good pitching matchup old uncle Chuck Charlie Morton
00:18for the O's take it on Tanner Houck on the other side for the Sox how do you
00:23break down the matchup there could be some offense it's like 75 degrees or
00:27about 14 mile per hour wind blowing out so this could spell some shorter
00:30pitching matchup so I like Charlie Morton under five and a half strikeouts
00:34you know Boston they're striking out or at least you know Rafi Devers just
00:37striking a lot so striking out a lot to start the season I don't want to look at
00:41just the season if we include last 2024 so the first few games of this year with
00:46their current active roster versus righties last year it was at 23 it's a
00:5020% strike already versus righties like that's not dramatic like it's below the
00:54league average it's not amazing but it's not terrible we're not talking about
00:5728% here so Morton is a pitcher that is never gonna be pumping that 28% strike
01:01right it's 23.8% last year plus the weather this could be a short outing for
01:06Charlie Morton so give me under five and a half strikeouts at minus 102 when
01:10blowing out those first two games here on the East Coast in Philadelphia and
01:13Baltimore something to keep an eye on high temperatures into the 70s there
01:16should be some fun but late night tonight if you will 740 that's the
01:20latest start tonight in major league baseball Cincinnati and Milwaukee from
01:23the dome in Milwaukee Lodolo the lefty on the mound for the Reds and then
01:27Nestor Cortez the lefty for the Minnesota excuse me Milwaukee Brewers
01:30who got lit on opening day or one of the first two games there in Yankee
01:33Stadium a total of eight across the board tonight side total team total Tom
01:37what gives tonight in this game let's go to the Reds team total over three and a
01:41half it was sitting at minus 128 a little while ago the Brewers don't have
01:46good pitching staff that's what it comes down to when you don't look at the first
01:49series they give up 11 runs or whatever was to the Royals the other day so far
01:52this season they are dead lastly with 528 X fit they're rolling 2.89 home
01:57runs per nine the Reds Donny as we've discussed they were a fun team they may
02:01not be amazing but they have some power in that lineup and you give me Nestor
02:05Cortez versus going up against Ellie de la Cruz we're looking at multiple bases
02:09for him probably some RBI eyes and more importantly the team total it's three
02:13and a half I saw jump up to minus 140 I still think it's playable there the Reds
02:17put up some against the Brewers my sweet Cincinnati Reds only two wins so
02:22far this year I need over 79 and a half let's start it today Vecchio the opener
02:27of a four game set in Milwaukee over the weekend between the Reds and the brew
02:32crew and NL Central divisional duel Tom Vecchio as always the prop perspective
02:37sensational thank you for being here on this Thursday we continue to go around
02:42the bigs up next on TEL just a five game slate on this Thursday around Major
02:47League Baseball a lot of teams have the day off it could be getaway day and a
02:51series finale for some or the start to a weekend set in other spots TRS let's
02:56begin with the New York Yankees and the Arizona Diamondbacks yesterday matching
03:01a career-best 13 strikeouts Zach Gallin and the Diamondbacks knocking off the
03:06Yanks inside Yankee Stadium despite a late Anthony Volpe three-run home run in
03:12the home half of the ninth to provide a little bit of hope for the Yanks
03:15Arizona does prevail Merrill Kelly gets the start today against Cookie Carrasco
03:21and the Yankees New York booked as a minus money home favorite minus 120
03:26total stands at nine and a half pretty lofty total for early April up in the
03:32tri-state it should be by the way 70 degrees expected around first pitch
03:36tonight here wind blowing out double digits to left field to have all of that
03:39environment that we love at Yankee Stadium that when the weather is nice
03:42the winds blowing out there turns into a little bit of a band box so having
03:46said that you look at Merrill Kelly first start of the season pretty good as
03:48ERA 1.69 ISO power number weighted on base percentage through 23 batters he's
03:53faced very good but again it's just one start on the season you flip it over to
03:57the other side and take a look at Carrasco not a lot to love about his
04:00first start because if you just break it down in simplicity a 13.5 ERA tells the
04:05tale only 11 batters face they've hammered him ISO weighted on base
04:09percentages all high there but also understand this we're now getting to
04:12the point where at least we have 10 at bats or more against let's just say
04:16lefty or righty splits here you look at the Arizona Diamondbacks entering into
04:20this game the estimated lineup at least the top seven going up against right
04:23handed pitching this year weighted on base percentages has followed 481 376
04:28515 369 765 64 for 72 small sample size really good numbers struggling pitcher
04:36in his first start maybe that bolds well now you take a look at the New York
04:38Yankees lineup here for you Ben same thing Merrill Kelly those strong starts
04:42of the season in his one start but weighted on base percentages here for
04:45the Yankees if you start with Aaron judge 406 467 489 435 554 858 in limited
04:52at bats of around 10 at bats or less on the season against right-handed pitching
04:56just makes sense I like the under yesterday in the Bronx today complete
04:59opposite I like the over the pitching matchups decent hitting weather should
05:03be there ball should travel juice on the over as well at minus 124 now live
05:09on the over nine and a half on the fan dual sports book could we see a touch
05:13double digits maybe so by the time we get to first pitch tonight around 7 p.m.
05:17Eastern Time the Yankees swept the Brewers and they're opening three game
05:21series in the Bronx now in danger of being swept in this three game set by
05:25the D backs if Arizona wins today they are the slight underdog with Merrill
05:29Kelly on the mound DRS after splitting their opening four game series against
05:33the Cubbies that'd be a sweep that'd be a five and two start for Arizona you
05:37look around the National League West Dodgers 8 no Padres 7 and 0 Giants 5 and
05:431 right now the D backs 4 and 2 and then there are the Colorado Rockies with just
05:47a single win so far this season now nobody in the NL West has played a
05:53divisional foe just yet the Rockies hoping to avoid a sweep as well against
05:58Philadelphia today in Philly afternoon baseball 106 p.m. Eastern Time first
06:04pitch in the Phil's DRS greater than a $2 favorite that total of seven that's a
06:09thing of yesterday nine and a half is now that live number with again some
06:13early April warm weather in some wind that is blowing out of the ballpark at
06:17Citizens Bank there you go look at Taiwan Walker minus 319 favorite today
06:22with a seven total sign that's like the Giants total that another outlet listed
06:26for us that we absolutely hammered to the over now granted it is higher and
06:29even if it's seven eight nine nine and a half I don't think you'd have any
06:32worries here I do expect runs in this but it's coming mainly from the Philly
06:35side sends a tell only 55 batters he's faced last year brutal only faced 21
06:40batters this year lefties absolutely hammering him which means you go right
06:44to the Philadelphia Phillies and take a look at who has done damage you've
06:47right-handed pitching left-handed bats Kyle Schwarber 11 at bats this year he
06:51has ISO is a 545 with a weighted on base percentage of 463 Bryce Harper
06:55left-handed batter going up against a righty 273 ISO 434 weighted on base
06:59percentage newcomer Max Kepler 9 at bats against right-handed pitching 667 ISO 604
07:05weighted on base percentage Bryson Scott 9 at bats a 500 ISO power number and a
07:10weighted on base percentage of 451 I like a lot of action here for the
07:14Philadelphia Phillies at the plate today and keep in mind we just talked about
07:17the Bronx and New York and Yankee Stadium in Philadelphia today a day game
07:21about 68 69 degrees at first pitch 15 plus mile-an-hour winds sustained dead
07:28out to center field for this game lift up launch it out of the ballpark that's
07:33what you get now having said what Donnie why just take the Phillies and it should
07:36be an easy runaway here's the issue Colorado stinks at the plate they're a
07:39bad baseball team but you know who else is really bad it's Taiwan Walker at
07:43pitching so maybe it's one of those you know what just take the total or a team
07:47total for the Rockies because Walker's just a terrible pitcher I can't go that
07:50far I'm confident that the Phillies will hit probably score at least five
07:53runs today which means some of the big boppers from the left-hand side will do
07:56some damage yeah maybe some RBI's on Bryce Harper on Kyle warmer team total
08:02for Philadelphia DRS is five and a half the under has the juice it's a pretty
08:06lofty team total for early April in Major League Baseball first of a four
08:11game set today in Milwaukee between the brew crew and the Reds and El Centro
08:15divisional duel and again as we shared with Tom Vecchio Milwaukee and Nestor
08:20Cortez ever so slight favorite minus 118 on that money line total now stands
08:25at eight how do you see this game playing out today in Milwaukee it's kind
08:30of crazy look at Lester Cortez and again a decent pitcher for the Yankees
08:33throughout his career goes over to Milwaukee he plays the Yankees get in
08:35Yankee stand like hey he probably knows those guys knows how to pitch in that
08:38environment I think every single batter he faced hit a home run off him again
08:42not a great start you expecting a bounce back in this which I do lean towards the
08:45under and here's the reason why Nestor Cortez is a decent pitcher yes he
08:49struggled against the Yankees different environment here roofs going to be
08:51closed in Milwaukee not a ton of carry and it's not really a pitchers or
08:55hitters ballpark per se swaying either direction but you just look at the Reds
08:58minimal at bats this year against left-handed pitching so it is buyer
09:02beware Matt McClain in the leadoff spot through four at bats is a 750 ice which
09:06means an extra base hit or two of those four bats but the rest of the lineup let
09:10me just read you the ISO power numbers this season which again is
09:12inconsequential because of how many bats they've had but as goes this follow bed
09:160 0 0 0 0 0 and 0 so there you go good luck in that just give me the under to
09:23start the season Cortez bounces back today 8 is that total again in Nestor's
09:28debut as a brewer against his former team in the Yankees is Nestor Cortez to
09:34blame for the torpedo bat controversy around Major League Baseball gave up
09:39five home runs and only two innings up in the Bronx the only other game we did
09:43not hit on the Twins hosting the Astros today Minnesota a home favorite minus
09:49120 DRS we send you to the money line my friend but we'll talk tomorrow here at
09:548 a.m. Eastern Time on the early line have a great time on Friday I like that
10:01more on the early lineup next