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00:00Welcome back into the early line. Happy Wednesday, Dubz Ennis alongside Donnie Rineside, and we're taking it to the diamond.
00:06It's a 15-game slate coming up for you Wednesday. The Yankees up top of the AL and, well, the Dodgers up top of the National League.
00:13Actually, Donnie, the Yankees, not much more up on top there of the league. They get surpassed by the Orioles now, so the playoff push continues.
00:23Every game just matters a little bit more as we look towards October, so let's get it out to New York.
00:29The Mets play in host Game 3 of the series, screwing up against the Boston Red Sox.
00:34The Mets have taken the first two, and they sit at minus 104 on the money line.
00:39It's a total of eight, so the odds makers are telling us this is very close to being a pick.
00:44And what's going to be the deciding factor out there at Citi Field today?
00:48Maybe just ride that win streak here, right? And that's to stay hot.
00:51You take a look at Tanner Houck, who I guess theoretically you could say he's the best pitcher overall in that starting lineup for the Boston Red Sox.
00:58But if we take a look at his full season, he's actually pitched against 687 batters combined.
01:03His ISO power number against is 088. That's phenomenal.
01:06His weighted on base percentage against 281, absolutely sensational.
01:10But if you take a look, sometimes, Dubs, I say to myself, I don't care what you did in April, May, or even June at this point.
01:16We are now in the months where you're trying to win baseball games, high leverage situations to get into the playoffs, and he hasn't performed all that well.
01:23So when I take a look at just the last 60 days and say, you know what?
01:27There's 26 pitchers on my card today, minimum of 20 innings pitched over those past two months, and Tanner Houck is 20th out of 26.
01:35To start the season, Dubs, he'd routinely be in my top five.
01:38The ERA, a little bit leaky, close to four at a 3.95.
01:42But his analytical numbers, in particular, his XFIP is at a 4.73.
01:46That's dangerously bad, and you're taking a look at a lineup today for the Mets that over the past 30 days has hit right-handed pitching fairly well.
01:53If you look at the first five guys in that lineup, Lindor, Nimmo, Vientos, Alonzo, and Winker, all above average with ISO power numbers against right-handed pitching.
02:02If we flip it over and take a look at a Mets perspective with what they have on the mound, Tyler McGill, not a great pitcher by any stretch.
02:08Has only faced 23 batters over the past month.
02:10He's been okay, but the question marks then come up, what are we getting out of the Boston Red Sox and that lineup?
02:16That I'm not saying has cooled off, but there was a time where every single left-handed batter in that lineup, I really had to get behind.
02:22Now, granted, Jaron Durant still having a fine last 30 days.
02:25You take a look at Yoshida also as well, but cooling off just a bit.
02:28Rafael Devers, Wyler Abreu, still okay numbers, but not as high as they used to be.
02:33I see that price point here where technically the Mets here on my graphic are an underdog.
02:38I'll continue to roll with the Mets.
02:39Even though the pitcher technically is better on the mound for Boston, he hasn't been that great over the past month to two months.
02:45I'll roll with the Mets once again.
02:47And for you, Propett, as Franny Lindor's had a streak of 14 straight of collect and a hit, so certainly play the hot hand.
02:53Maybe look for two or more.
02:55All right, let's take it out to the Rogers Center in Toronto.
02:58The Blue Jays playing host to the Phillies.
03:00And what a game this was last night.
03:02The Phillies get it done.
03:03Schwaber bombs goes off to get the score 10-9.
03:07It's game two, and it looks like Philly going to be favored in this spot going on the road.
03:12Currently sitting there at minus 126, and that total sits at 8.
03:16We see the same again as last night, Donnie.
03:18Could that number blow wide open?
03:21I think we could see the same thing as we saw yesterday with a Phillies victory.
03:24But again, having said that, it's an afternoon game.
03:26We'll wait to see in that starting lineup.
03:28You saw one of the final plate appearances for Bryce Harper.
03:31Had a little bit of discomfort in that elbow.
03:33Already down Alec Bowman in that lineup.
03:35We'll see if Bryce Harper is inserted back in.
03:37But if we're looking from a pitching perspective, the reason why I said yesterday,
03:40we might not get the same thing there.
03:42Why? That score yesterday was 10-9.
03:4419 total runs.
03:45Look at the two pitchers you have on the mound.
03:46And maybe not household names, but quite frankly, over the next couple years, could be.
03:50Christopher Sanchez, out of 26 pitchers on my card today, he's number three, dubs in his ranking.
03:55But check this out.
03:56His ERA over the past 60 days is 5.22.
04:00You figure that'd be like last place on the card.
04:02But his analytical numbers are very favorable at a 3.32.
04:06We'll see if that holds up against that Toronto lineup.
04:09But also another guy that's going to be pitching today for Toronto, that's Bowden Francis.
04:13You see his last 60 days, his ERA, 2.40.
04:16His analytical numbers, his XFIP, 3.70.
04:19I think we saw a lot of runs yesterday.
04:22Afternoon getaway game today in Toronto.
04:25I think this game stays under the total dubs.
04:27I think that's the better bet in this game.
04:30Chris Sanchez, four and a half Ks.
04:32He's cleared that twice.
04:3350-50 split for the year.
04:35So maybe another nice prop mark he can look towards.
04:37All right, let's take it out to Cincinnati.
04:39The Reds playing against one of the hottest teams in the West, the Houston Astros, coming into town.
04:45The starting arc, Spencer Arrighetti gets the hill for the Astros,
04:49and Nick Martinez gets the go for the Reds.
04:52Both have pretty strong whips, Donnie, but on the ERA side of things,
04:56close to my Starbucks order from earlier today.
04:58So could we see a bit of offense trending for this one?
05:02It's interesting that we bring that up, too, because if you take a look at the season total,
05:05it's like, boy, Arrighetti wasn't very good to start the season.
05:07As we know, that certainly goes into your numbers.
05:10Nobody's going to look at your ERA and just say,
05:11oh, well, how'd you pitch over the past two to three weeks at this point?
05:14You only see the full season numbers.
05:16But I like to get into those numbers over the past 30 and 60 days,
05:19and Spencer Arrighetti has been a pretty good pitcher here, dubs.
05:22Number five on my card today is ERA over the past 60 days, manageable at a 3.49.
05:28But how about his XFIP number, 3.63?
05:30You can get away with that.
05:31And also, we're in one of the better hitter's ballparks in Major League Baseball
05:35at Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati.
05:37Temperature's 80 degrees, but a wind is blowing in a little bit from center field.
05:40Maybe that affects it slightly, but I don't think there's going to be too much of a difference.
05:44Nick Martinez, however, 48 and a third innings pitched over the past 60 days.
05:48Look at his ERA, dovesy, 3.35. XFIP number, 3.90.
05:53I like both of these offenses here, but I might think you're getting a discount here.
05:57I don't know if we get 10 runs in this game.
05:59So once again, I'm a guy that roots for RBIs, likes to see runs, likes to see RBI props,
06:04but I'm probably more likely today in this game to go under than I am over here.
06:08Oh, unders, overs, Donnie. I need your assistance in this one.
06:12We're going out to the K. The Kansas City Royals have now lost seven straight.
06:17I made the error yesterday of jumping and thinking that was the turnaround spot.
06:20They're playing host to the Guardians again in this one.
06:23The total open at eight and a half.
06:25We've seen a bit of movement. It goes back to eight and a half here.
06:29Minus 134 for the Kansas City Royals with Seth Lugo getting out on the hill.
06:34Is Seth Lugo towing the slab enough to turn it around for the Royals?
06:38Yeah, it's tough. Again, sometimes you're just getting into like we talk about the mess.
06:41Sometimes you just start to get a win streak or just start to get a losing streak.
06:45You can't get out of your own way. Seth Lugo started the season.
06:48Absolutely a man on fire, has settled down quite a bit.
06:51His last 60 days, doves ERA getting close to five at this spot.
06:55He really struggles with left-handed batters.
06:57The key indicator there, you're going to get a lot of left-handed batters from the Guardians tonight.
07:01Kwon, Jimenez, Ramirez, Naylor, Manzardo and Naylor as well,
07:05which is actually his brother and then Roccio a switch hitter the nine-hole spot.
07:09So if you're struggling over the past 60 days, particularly against lefties,
07:12that losing streak is going to hit eight today, doves. Hate to say it.
07:16Hunters, team title, Royals four and a half, more on the other side.
07:19Welcome back into the early line.
07:21Happy Wednesday, doves Ennis alongside Donnie right side
07:24and we're keeping it with the bigs. Major League Baseball continues here on our hump day
07:29and we're headed down to Petco Park, a pitcher's paradise.
07:32Grab the flip-flops, grab your beach towel.
07:34The Padres have been playing some fantastic baseball
07:37and they got a really good chance of to keep things going in the right direction.
07:40You Darvish gets out on the hill this afternoon
07:43and the Padres heavily favored in this spot.
07:46Donnie is the juice worth the squeeze at minus 180 on the money line.
07:50This is interesting and it's a great development too
07:53because as you're trying to set up your rotation heading into the playoff doves,
07:56you Darvish coming back and what happens if he returns to form?
08:00It is a very good pitcher here.
08:02The San Diego Padres could be hell on wheels come playoff time,
08:05but we have to get there and he has to be good tonight.
08:08Quite frankly, it's not a great lineup as we know for the Detroit Tigers.
08:11Going up against right-handed pitching over the past month,
08:13they haven't succeeded all that much.
08:15Outside of Parker Meadows, Riley Green and Kerry Carpenter,
08:18that lineup typically has been a dumpster fire.
08:20Let's flip it over to the other side and that level of trust that you have for Kider Montero.
08:25It really isn't there technically,
08:27but his season is much worse than his last 30 days,
08:30which means he's been slightly a better pitcher.
08:33If you look at his last 107 batters that he stays dubs a 118 ISO against
08:37and a weighted on base percentage of 310, which is very good.
08:40If we extend it up to 60 days and take a look at some analytical numbers here for him,
08:44it hasn't been all that great.
08:46It's an ERA of 4.57 and an ex-vip of 4.44.
08:49He's actually been a better pitcher as of late.
08:51So we are looking and I think your words were appropriate here.
08:54That's a pitching Paradise out there in San Diego.
08:57I'm going to bet that we have a decent performance
09:00and maybe not a lot of long performance here out of you Darvish,
09:03but that bullpen is fantastic.
09:05I don't think that the Detroit bats are all that great and then flip it over.
09:08Maybe Kider Montero can have a solid start here not get blown away in five innings
09:13and they can also cruise to a victory for San Diego.
09:15So I think the Padres win absolutely,
09:17but maybe it's an under look here in that ballpark with these two pitchers
09:21and these two lineups.
09:23Let's keep it with the National League team playing some great baseball
09:28and a lot still on the line here.
09:29The Atlanta Braves, they're playing host to the Colorado Rockies just middling along
09:34looking towards October saying, hey, what could we have done
09:37and it doesn't get much easier here this afternoon.
09:39The Braves get Charlie Morden out there on the hill.
09:42Charlie Morden has been strong 7-7 win loss.
09:46He's set at six and a half chases.
09:48He's prop number this afternoon and they are heavy favorites.
09:51Minus 2-75 after a 3-0 win last night.
09:56Is it all about the Braves to bully the Rockies again on a Wednesday, Donnie?
10:00It looks like it again.
10:02And the Rockies outside of Colorado certainly not showing up
10:04and the Atlanta Braves know that every game right now,
10:06Doves, feels like a playoff game.
10:08You got to win.
10:08You got to handle your business against bad teams like the Rockies
10:11and Bradley Blaylock will be on the mound.
10:13His last 97 batters.
10:14He's faced a weighted on base percentage against 359,
10:17which is terrible on the season.
10:18He's got a 352 weighted on base percentage combined against lefties
10:21and righties.
10:22That's not great.
10:23If you're looking for RBI props tonight from an Atlanta perspective,
10:26you're looking at Solaire, Ozuna, and Olsen, 2, 3, and 4 in that order.
10:30If we flip it over to Colorado, Charlie Morden is just your average pitcher
10:34on the mound veteran guy.
10:36Quite frankly, look at his last 60 days.
10:37His ERA is close to 5, but the problem with that Doves,
10:40he is you would love to see Charlie Morden in Colorado in elevation
10:43against the Colorado Rockies lineup.
10:45Yesterday, I understand it was Chris Sale.
10:47Maybe the best pitcher in baseball.
10:49They didn't even show up.
10:50I don't expect they show up again today, but I'm not laying close
10:52to $3 price point.
10:54I'll just look for those RBI props we talked about from 2, 3, and 4
10:57in that Braves lineup.
10:59Who's going to be showing up to Oracle Park for the Wednesday afternoon
11:02showdown between the Giants and the Diamondbacks and National League
11:06West showdown here?
11:08The Diamondbacks favored, minus 142 there on the money line.
11:12No surprises.
11:13They get Zach Yellen out there on the hill.
11:15But what do we make of the Giants' chances?
11:17He'll play better at home, and they get Hayden Birdsong, who's listed here,
11:21Donnie, at 4.5 Ks.
11:23He's gone over it in four straight.
11:25So Birdsong's obviously in control of his stuff.
11:29Here's the problem with Birdsong.
11:30You take a look at his last 89 batters, Doves.
11:32He high ISO power numbers against high weighted on base percentages,
11:36which will get you in trouble with Arizona.
11:38Now granted, San Francisco, one of the better pitching ballparks
11:41in Major League Baseball.
11:42We understand that.
11:43Cooler temperatures, big ball yard, maybe not a lot of home runs expected.
11:46But if you are looking at the last 30 days of that lineup for the Arizona
11:50Diamondbacks against right-handed pitching, Corbin Carroll, Jake McCarthy,
11:54Jock Peterson off the charts here with ISO weighted on base percentages here.
11:58Adrian Del Castillo, as well as Eugenio Suarez, and then we'll throw in
12:01Perdomo, who's due to bat ninth.
12:03You got, looks like, six to seven plus batters in the lineup tonight for the
12:08Diamondbacks.
12:09Gallon's the better pitcher.
12:10The lineup is better for the Diamondbacks.
12:12I'll lay the favorite here.
12:13And also, maybe a team total with the Diamondbacks.
12:15I think they hit tonight, Dovesy.
12:17I do.
12:18Let's go.
12:19Give us plenty of offense going off for your Wednesday evening.
12:23That's going to do it for me, Donnie.
12:25I'm going to be going off on the other side.
12:26I'm hearing whispers.
12:27It's LL Lacey.
12:29Join the program.
12:30Ladies love Lacey and Donnie.
12:32Great to have football back.
12:33The Kansas City Chiefs are smashing the Ravens on Thursday night.
12:37They cut the number.
12:38Enjoy.