Datuk Prof. Dr. Mohd Faiz Abdullah, co-chair of the 17th ASEAN Regional Forum Experts and Eminent Persons (ARF EEPs) Meeting unpack the forum’s key outcomes, including discussions on preventive diplomacy, regional security, and strengthening ASEAN’s economic resilience.
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00:00Hello and welcome to Awani Global. I'm your host Fahna Sheh. Now today I'm honored to have with us
00:12Prof. Dr. Mohamed Faiz Abdullah just as we conclude the 17th ASEAN Regional Forum Experts
00:20and Eminent Persons meeting between 7 to 8 April 2025 right here at Hilton Kuala Lumpur.
00:26Thank you so much for joining us Prof. Dato. Now I want to start off with your reflection of as the co-chair of the forum this year.
00:35Let's start with that. What were the most significant outcomes of the 17th ASEAN EEP meeting today?
00:42Well there are a couple of significant outcomes if I may just enumerate them, three or four of them.
00:47I mean the first thing is primarily this kind of meeting gives the opportunity for so-called experts and eminent persons,
00:57me being one of them, thanks to the Minister of Foreign Affairs having nominated me,
01:03the chance to gather, hubble, discuss, discourse, argue perhaps, get a little bit heated here and there,
01:11about what are the best things that could offer in relation to what is known as the ASEAN Regional Forum.
01:17Now this is both Track 2 and Track 1 Diplomacy.
01:21What we do at this level is Track 2, we discuss all the important things and at the end of the day,
01:27like what we just had this evening, we have a series of recommendations
01:30that we will proffer to the higher authorities, meaning the state level, that's Track 1,
01:36which is the senior officials and eventually goes up to the ministers,
01:40what our recommendations are in relation to moving forward with the ASEAN Regional Forum.
01:45So that is what we call one of the most important things.
01:49In addition to that, we have what we call continuous current discourse on the geopolitical events affecting the region.
02:00And those, perhaps you could discuss later, would open up an entirely new vista of topics
02:07in relation to, for example, multipolarity, multilateralism, what is known as the so-called major power rivalry,
02:19problems surrounding particularly the region in ASEAN, things like, as you know, the crisis in Myanmar,
02:25problems involving literal disputes in relation to the South China Sea and so on and so forth.
02:31It seems like there's a lot to unpack. Unfortunately, this is only a 30-minute show.
02:36Yes.
02:36But, okay, let's start with, you know, the whole purpose of ARF is to help strengthen the preventive diplomacy.
02:45I think that was the main agenda of it, especially in light of Malaysian-ASEAN Championship this year.
02:52So how did the forum actually help in strengthening this aspect of preventive diplomacy?
02:58Yeah, that's pretty good. So what we have, first of all, let's understand that you have, at the top level,
03:03it's known as, what I said earlier, the ASEAN Regional Forum.
03:06Beyond that and below that, the so-called implementation parts, the parts that fill in the big gap would be the EEPs,
03:18which is the expert and eminent persons, and also side-by-side you have what is known as a C-SCAP.
03:24So these are the two basic sub-forums which continually feed on the, shall I say, organic growth of the ASEAN Regional Forum.
03:36Which goes on right up to the top.
03:38Right.
03:38So to come back to your specific question, yeah, what we need to really understand is that what is being absorbed into this taking of the ASEAN Regional Forum
03:52would be, number one, very, very, I should put frank and candid views, which you may not get at the official level.
04:00Right.
04:01So these frank candid exchanges would help to gel, eventually, what should be the takings that could be recommended to the official level.
04:11Now, the important thing about such a forum is that it encompasses not just the ASEAN members, you have the external members as well.
04:21Right.
04:21And the way it is run is quite interesting.
04:24You have co-chairs.
04:25So the co-chairs go alternatively.
04:29First, you have the co-chair comprising from ASEAN member states,
04:33and then you have the external co-chair coming from the external, apart from the ASEAN member states.
04:38So this gives it a lot of, I would put it, intellectual fertilization, as it were,
04:45so that there's a lot of ideas being exchanged that you may not get if it's just within ASEAN itself,
04:51or if it's just among external members.
04:54Right.
04:54There's insufficient interplay, exchange, and perhaps even some sort of understanding between each other.
05:00Right.
05:00It's also sort of diversifying the discourse and making sure you're taking into account different views
05:07and different viewpoints as well from what I'm getting.
05:09Absolutely.
05:10Right.
05:11Okay.
05:11So on that, let's start with the most, the biggest elephant in the room this week is US tariffs and trade tensions.
05:18I was just waiting.
05:19When are you going to pop that?
05:20Yes.
05:20Yes.
05:20I'm pretty sure that it's discussed primarily in the agenda and the forum just now.
05:26So let's start with some of the concerns that were highlighted or raised by experts and eminent person in the forum.
05:33How might these tariffs actually affect or reshape the supply chain and economic alignments in Southeast Asia?
05:39Okay.
05:40I have to be pretty frank about this.
05:42No question about the fact that this is a big elephant in the room.
05:47Sometimes because it's so big, nobody wants to talk about it.
05:49Right.
05:50Because of the nature of the ASEAN Regional Forum is that it encompasses already many standard issues.
05:56But here comes tariff Trump's 2.0.
06:02Right.
06:02So when it's there, it's like at the tip of everybody's tongue.
06:06When shall we pop this question?
06:08So this, of course, was raised throughout in terms of interventions, but not in the agenda as such.
06:14But because it's raised, I'd like to tell you that this were basically a cross-section.
06:19And don't forget, we do have also representatives from the United States of America in this ASEAN Regional Forum, experts and eminent persons.
06:27Obviously, it would not be in the nature of things to exchange unnecessarily hostile crossfire in the expression of one's opinions here.
06:38But some of the areas that we talked about was concern, particularly in terms of the regional impact.
06:45Right.
06:45Now, this concern has got to be taken into the context that at this point in time, nobody is really absolutely sure what the heck this tariff is all about.
06:55All you have is a series of numbers and, of course, continuous threats from the part of the Trump administration that if you do this, we will do this.
07:05If we don't do this, we will do that.
07:07And even at this point, people are not sure whether the full force of the tariffs will actually be imposed on the nation's concern.
07:16And there is the expression that these tariffs are basically Trump against the rest of the world.
07:21I mean, that's a generic way of putting it.
07:23And in many ways, it is true.
07:25So you find that many of the countries involved, except, of course, the United States, when being confronted with that question, would be, how will they react?
07:33Two points.
07:34One, you have the view that they will not overreact, which is to stay calm.
07:40And that is the Malaysian position.
07:42Recently, the Honorable Prime Minister, Dr. Sri Aan Abraim, has outlined it very clearly,
07:47that these tariffs are totally against the standard practice as governed by initially the General Agreements on Trade Tariffs and also eventually the World Trade Organization.
08:00This is not good.
08:00But in any event, Malaysia will not react hysterically.
08:05It will react in a calm and rational manner.
08:07It will choose dialogue over confrontation.
08:11And we'll find ways how to ameliorate the extent or the harmful effect of this.
08:16Likewise, some of the countries were expressing, even though they were not hit with that much higher, they were concerned.
08:22And as you know, within ASEAN, you have the CLVM, Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar.
08:27They were hit hardest.
08:28Yes.
08:29These were concerns that were also raised.
08:31Right.
08:31I mean, is there a proposal to sort of increase intra-ASEAN trade or to look at diversifying exports and all that when you talk about, you know, tackling this tariff as a block?
08:42You've hit it right on the head.
08:45Even way before this issue of tariffs, there has always been this issue about why is it that within ASEAN, the trading has been not up to mark.
08:55The potential is so huge.
08:57So the room to maximize intra-ASEAN trade is far beyond what we are doing.
09:04So there has been a general agreement that there's a need for first intra-ASEAN and then intra-ASEAN.
09:12So what happens is that there were no specifics in terms of numbers, but certainly the question of the tariffs being brought into has given it a new urgency, a new impetus for ASEAN member states to work very hard on it.
09:26And don't forget, it's not just ASEAN member states.
09:29And this is a location where the non-ASEAN member states, the external partners, also, you know, put in, chipped in their bid of what they could possibly do in terms of reaction.
09:40Right.
09:40So segue on that a little bit in terms of non-external partners, China.
09:45So, you know, Prime Minister Dutra Nair-Burim has already called for a coordinated ASEAN response when it comes to responding to U.S.-China trade tensions.
09:56So what kind of collective strategies were proposed during the meeting just now to mitigate the risks of these tensions, escalating tensions?
10:06Well, there is this thing called the ideals and there's this thing called reality.
10:10Ideally, what we want is to have ASEAN centrality expressing itself in cohesive action and also cohesive verbalization of the problem.
10:19That is the ideal, which means to say you need a unified ASEAN position to come up so that under the law of averages,
10:27it would help us to bring down the so-called harmful effects or the negative effects of the tariffs.
10:35That's the ideal.
10:37The reality is that there is asymmetry among the ASEAN states.
10:43I don't have to mention names.
10:45Some of the ASEAN member states are on a higher economic ladder.
10:48Yes, a bit more aligned to certain countries than the others.
10:52And also economically more advanced.
10:54And some are also economically less advanced.
10:57Malaysia could be seen to be in the higher up and around, but not at the highest.
11:01So we, as ASEAN chair, will have to make effort to call for unity in this.
11:09Centrality is not that every man to himself or to herself, every person to herself.
11:14And that could lead to, in fact, more complete loss among the sum of the parts.
11:20So what has been mentioned is that in the things that we talked about, I cannot disclose the actual recommendations,
11:27but what was said was among these things would be the urgency to have a unified position in order to face the challenges of this tariffs.
11:39If you don't mind me picking a little bit because, you know, playing the devil's advocate here,
11:43you know, critics have said when it comes to ASEAN that this concept of centrality is the one that hinders
11:51sort of meaningful conflict resolution, for example.
11:55If you talk about, you know, we'll touch on South China Sea, for example.
11:58So do you think, you know, the concept of centrality when it comes to regional conflicts like this is still relevant?
12:07There's some truth in that.
12:09And there is also the flip side of the argument.
12:11I mean, for one, centrality has been a mantra that has evolved from the initial genesis of ASEAN,
12:21which is a zone of peace, freedom and neutrality.
12:23And neutrality would definitely mean that you need to have centrality.
12:29If one party does not decide not to be neutral, then you don't have that centrality.
12:33Now, that's one thing, this mantra.
12:35But centrality has to be manifested through cohesive action.
12:39And in many ways, this is not forthcoming in some of the key areas.
12:44I have mentioned in many occasions, for example, there is no absolute centrality when it comes to,
12:49for example, the problems relating to the South China Sea.
12:52And this is even before the question of tariffs, Trump 2.0.
12:58Now, does that mean that the centrality concept has broken down?
13:03Not necessarily.
13:05Centrality concept has some, shall we part, reaching a point where it may be breaking apart at the seams,
13:16but it's not broken yet.
13:17Right.
13:18So, that's the challenge.
13:20The challenge is how ASEAN member states could get together, look past some of the differences and self-interest.
13:29Every nation must have self-interest.
13:31Look past beyond that and able to come to a term where everybody else would benefit more
13:35rather than somebody else benefit more than the others.
13:38So, in that respect, I wouldn't say that centrality has failed.
13:45I wouldn't say that.
13:46But that's why I said that as chair, the expectation is for us to try to have a more unified stand when it comes to this.
13:53That means submerging too much of self-interest for the nations for the general good.
13:59Right.
13:59Which is why I think this is also linked to sustainability and inclusiveness.
14:05Inclusiveness would definitely imply centrality.
14:10If you don't have inclusiveness and yet you call centrality, that's a bit of a misnomer.
14:17Okay.
14:18Since you mentioned Sashian Asi just now, let's pick on that a little bit because it still remains a major concern.
14:25And you also mentioned how ASEAN centrality or even its consensus-based approach when it comes to all this.
14:37Do you think with tensions simmering in the region, ARF can play a role in promoting dialogue
14:42and preventing conflict in these contested waters?
14:45Certainly it can.
14:47And that's what we have been discussing as well.
14:48How to be able to devise a general strategy and plan that the, for example, in relation to South China Sea,
14:59that the littoral states, those states which are in line for possible conflict,
15:04are able to ameliorate their positions collectively.
15:09Now let's get down to the granular part.
15:12First of all, South China Sea conflict has been given a certain dimension which is misleading.
15:23It is not ASEAN against China.
15:25Right.
15:26Or Southeast Asian states against China.
15:28Because South China Sea conflict involves ASEAN states among ASEAN states as well.
15:34And of course you have China with others.
15:36With members of ASEAN.
15:37You have problems with this or that, ASEAN members.
15:40This is number one.
15:40And because of that, each ASEAN member state may have a certain way of reacting to it.
15:48One, it could be a bilateral way which you can see, for example, in how we deal with China, for example.
15:55We don't believe in megaphone diplomacy.
16:00We believe in soft, quiet diplomacy.
16:03Where if there are things to settle, we settle there and not tell the whole world about this.
16:07It's basically a results-oriented approach.
16:11Right.
16:11Not too much process-driven, but more outcome-driven.
16:15And then you have a situation where it's not just megaphone.
16:19It could be translated into war games and war exercises.
16:23In the case of the Philippines recently.
16:25I'm not casting any aspersions on that.
16:28I'm just saying that that is another way of dealing with it.
16:31But in the course of trying to evolve a more, shall we say, diplomatic way,
16:37we would prefer that it should be done collectively with both sides having to give and take.
16:43I'm not trying to say which side is right or which side is wrong.
16:45Right.
16:45But this is how we should be dealt with.
16:47Vietnam has got its own issues as well, for example.
16:50So this, on top of this, you have other major powers coming into the fray
16:56and to see how they could also possibly either benefit or take advantage of the situation.
17:02Right.
17:03It is quite complicated.
17:05Right.
17:05I mean, I'm just thinking of Thailand, for example.
17:07India part for negotiating with the junta when it comes to achieving peace in Myanmar.
17:15So that's part and parcel the self-diplomacy that you mentioned just now.
17:19So it's not just megaphone diplomacy.
17:22It's people on the ground actually engaging ASEAN member to ASEAN member.
17:27And also dialogues like this.
17:29And I think some of the critics are saying that, oh, have ASEAN done enough?
17:35When really, you know, all of this are done behind, you know, behind the scenes.
17:40So it's good that, you know, this is being pointed out.
17:43Sorry, can I just, I'm taken up.
17:44Since you mentioned the issue that you're talking about Myanmar,
17:48I'd like to mention that, you know, since Malaysia has taken on the chair,
17:53our prime minister has taken a major leap in terms of initiative.
17:57And that is forming the informal advisory council.
18:02It is informal advisory council on ASEAN 2025 under the chair of Malaysia.
18:08What does that mean?
18:09That means it will be a group of advisors who will be able to give counsel to the chair,
18:16that is to the prime minister, on how best to deal with the hot button burning issues.
18:21And one of them, as you mentioned, is Myanmar.
18:24So what is happening is that we've got advisors representing key players.
18:30Singapore, Indonesia, Philippines.
18:33We are awaiting one member coming from Vietnam as well.
18:36So what they do is they gather, they discuss, and they have some specific agenda,
18:42including the agenda for the South China Sea, as well as the agenda for Myanmar.
18:46Does this mean that there is a break in ASEAN 703?
18:49Absolutely not.
18:50Because these members are recognised and approved and sanctioned by the respective leaders from the ASEAN member states.
18:58So there will be continuity.
19:00And also there will be no question about one voice saying one thing and the other state saying something else.
19:05It's a very collective consultative committee.
19:08And that has helped quite a bit.
19:11And I feel that it's very timely and much needed as well, considering that the year that Malaysia is chairing ASEAN right now,
19:19a lot has happened.
19:20Yes.
19:21We have, for example, I mean, putting aside all the regional conflict that we already have,
19:26we have Myanmar earthquake, for example, just happening recently.
19:29We have tariff trumps.
19:32We have quite a few in Malaysia's hands, concluding the code of conduct, for example.
19:39Code of conduct.
19:40Yes, I think I forgot to mention that, since you mentioned it's important.
19:44The question is, is it even conceivable that there will be a resolution?
19:48Will there ever be an agreement on the code of conduct?
19:51You've been talking about the code of conduct to no end, yes?
19:54For so many years.
19:55Well, the good news is that the parties basically have essentially agreed to it, but not to the exact point of T.
20:03What happens is that it would be a bit naive to think that it will be signed this year, but we are very optimistic that it's going to happen next year.
20:11Okay.
20:12Even though it's not in the year that we chair, but the major efforts at coming to a consensus happens this year.
20:19And that is good for Mark as a cap, rather than the cap for Malaysia as ASEAN chair.
20:25I mean, it's a significant step, I feel.
20:27Absolutely significant step.
20:28And right under Malaysia's chairmanship as well.
20:30Exactly.
20:30President Xi Jinping visits to Vietnam, Cambodia, and soon Malaysia, coming at a very critical time.
20:39How are these visits, you think, viewed through the lens of regional security and diplomacy?
20:44From your view and from the forum just now, do you think that this is a recalibration of China's influence in ASEAN?
20:52I wouldn't see it in terms of calibration of China's influence,
20:56but I would see it in terms of the significance and importance China attaches to ASEAN.
21:03That's a different way of looking at it.
21:04Perhaps mine is a bit more, shall we say, less critical lens.
21:11But the practical lens is that you have to understand that this is crucial for Malaysia in terms of the impact it gives.
21:17And this is prior to the huge ASEAN GCC plus China summit, coinciding with Malaysia being the chair.
21:27Now, the significance of President Xi Jinping's visit can be seen from three lens.
21:33Number one, geopolitical.
21:34The importance that the region holds vis-à-vis China in terms of its geopolitical positioning
21:39and how it matters to China, whether the ASEAN member states are important or not.
21:45And in this case, particularly for Malaysia.
21:48You understand that last year, recently, the Prime Minister also had an official visit
21:54and there was a proper bilateral as well.
21:57So this is not the first time where there's going to be a one-to-one as well
22:01with the President Xi Jinping.
22:03And this speaks volumes for the importance attached to Malaysia
22:08under the leadership of Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim.
22:11At the geoeconomic level, you are looking at a situation at this point of time,
22:17it may have been providential, we don't know, coinciding with Trump 2.0.
22:23Yeah, that Xi Jinping has come and there will be definitely on the table
22:28questions about expanding, enhancing, adding value to geoeconomic matters,
22:36trading, exchange of maybe technical know-how,
22:41improvement in relation to how we can process and improve our digital transformation
22:46and all the related matters.
22:48And third, geostratically, particularly in terms of people-to-people relations.
22:52That is a very key effort to how to promote further understanding
22:55and particularly in relation to Malaysia and China.
22:58There's always a talk that we are pivoting from the West
23:03and particularly from America towards China.
23:06There's always that perception.
23:09I think this visit must be seen in the context of denying that.
23:15In the same way we would welcome a visit from any major country.
23:19So geostrategically, it should be just seen as part of Malaysia,
23:22diversifying and enhancing is a strategic option.
23:27I don't think anything more should be read to that.
23:30I mean, it's about not putting your eggs all in one basket, right?
23:34It's about making sure.
23:35I think that's a very ASEAN way of looking at things,
23:38making sure that we are friends with everyone,
23:41making sure that we have a very cordial relationship despite tensions
23:44within member states or within external members.
23:47So I think that's a very ASEAN way of doing things.
23:50And it has worked because there's no war in this region, at least for now.
23:55That is absolutely – that is one of the most amazing things
23:58and that is one of the things that we should really latch on to make use of it.
24:02That is the brand equity which we shouldn't forget.
24:06Yeah, we are now number five.
24:07We're going to be number four very soon as an economic block entity,
24:11largest, number four, at the same time with this peace and security
24:16and stability in the region.
24:18Right.
24:19We are running out of time, so –
24:21That fast?
24:22Yeah, so it flows very fast when you have a lot of issues around ASEAN
24:27that we would like to tackle, but unfortunately we are running out of time.
24:30My last question would be, or my last – your last wish, I guess.
24:34What are your hopes for Malaysia, especially as ASEAN chairmanship,
24:38in translating these recommendations that you've brought forth during the ARF
24:42into policy action during its chairmanship?
24:44Yeah, well, certainly our hopes is that whatever recommendations
24:47will be given will be accepted wholesale, if not at least 80%, if not 50%.
24:53Right.
24:54The thing is, the whole idea about this is just that my hopes are not limited
24:58just to this 17th meeting of the ASEAN Union Forum.
25:01My hopes extend beyond that.
25:03As I've said before, this is a crucial year.
25:05Malaysia taking the chair, ASEAN 2025, will have long-term positions.
25:11The position of Malaysia is not just to look at and hang on
25:15and pluck the low-hanging fruits, but go beyond that in terms of sustainability.
25:20And we're talking all the way to 2045.
25:23So the idea is that the full realization of the success of Malaysia this year
25:27will be only seen when the time comes for the realization
25:31of the ASEAN Community Vision 2045.
25:34And we have, you know, the ARF experts and eminent persons meeting happening
25:40just now to sort of, you know, help ASEAN in its journey to achieve its goal,
25:46to achieve the Community Vision 2045.
25:48And we thank you for co-chairing, and we thank you to help gather all these experts
25:53and eminent persons to advise governments and Malaysia
25:57and other members of the bloc.
25:59So thank you so much, Prof. Datuk, for your contribution.
26:01Thank you, thank you.
26:02It's an honor for me to have to be able to participate in this way.
26:04Thank you very much.
26:05That's all the time we have, unfortunately.
26:07Thank you so much for everyone who's watching.
26:09I'm Farhana Sheh.
26:10Bye.
26:23I'm Farhana Sheh.